A slow-moving storm that brought historic snow to parts of Turkey, including Istanbul last week shifted southeast bringing travel disrupting snowfall to the higher elevations from Syria through Jordan and Israel.
While more tranquil weather has now returned to that region, the storm responsible for the storminess is now targeting Afghanistan and Pakistan with the threat for flooding rainfall and heavy mountain snow.
The combination of the slow movement of this story and moisture from the Arabian Sea will lead to several days of rain and mountain snow for Afghanistan, Pakistan and far northwest India.
Initially the storm will bring rain as warm air ahead of the storm will not support snowfall outside of the very highest mountains in the region. As a result rain with localized downpours are possible through Wednesday. However, as colder air builds into the region
This colder air mass will cause rain to transition to snow in the higher elevations of western and central on Monday with more widespread snow falling across central and eastern Pakistan, while heavy rain continues in eastern Pakistan where the flooding risk will become elevated.
By Wednesday, snow will fall across eastern Afghanistan and the higher terrain of northeast Pakistan. Rain will continue in the foothills of eastern Pakistan where flooding and mudslides are possible.
Major cities that will be impacted by this storm include: Kabul, Afghanistan and Islamabad, Pakistan.
Kabul, rain is expected to fall from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Downpours can result in flooding during this time. Colder air will build into the area Tuesday night allowing the rain to mix with and change to snow. Snowfall accumulations will vary from a slushy 2-8 cm (1-3 inches) in the lower elevations to 30 cm (12 inches) or more in the higher terrain around the city.
In Islamabad, there will be no snowfall, however, flooding will still remain a concern as rain is expected from late Monday into Wednesday. The heaviest rain will fall later Tuesday into Wednesday morning when downpours can lead to flash flooding in and around the city.