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Madagascar Faces Another Tropical Threat

The tropics are attempting to come back alive in the Mozambique Channel, posing hazards to Madagascar.

After emerging from the southeastern coast of Africa, a tropical low is expected to continue to organize and will likely become a tropical depression or storm as it tracks toward Madagascar through the start of the weekend.

Disruptive wind shear is currently hindering the low's attempt to organize, but that shear should lessen through Friday.

The low is expected to reach or pass very close to the southwestern coast of Madagascar this weekend.

During that time, it should be a tropical storm. The longer the system remains offshore, the stronger it will become.

However, Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls anticipates that the storm will fall short of reaching the strength equal to that of a hurricane in the Atlantic Basin.

How close the storm tracks to the coast will determine how expansive the damaging wind danger will be in southwestern Madagascar.

Otherwise, Nicholls warns that the storm will "be more of a rain threat" to Madagascar as flooding downpours will expand southward along the western coast through this weekend.

Between 125 and 250 mm (5 and 10 inches) of rain could inundate the nation's southwestern corner, home to Morondova and Toliara. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides pose serious concerns.

Western Madagascar is more susceptible to flooding due to accruing a rainfall surplus over the course of the past 15 days, according to Nicholls.