Following a quiet period of weather in the Western Pacific Basin, a new tropical threat could develop next week with potential impacts for the Philippines.
The area between the Philippines and Guam is one of the most favorable for tropical development during the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere as the jet stream is located farther south across Asia, limiting the threat of tropical cyclones farther north.
An area of showers and thunderstorms will track from southeast of Guam westward into the Philippine Sea early next week moving into an area with relatively low wind shear and warm waters capable of fostering tropical cyclone development.
This area of showers and thunderstorms will be moving at a rapid pace to the west which could hinder its ability to organize into a named tropical cyclone, as showers and thunderstorms would struggle to consolidate around a low-level center.
Regardless of development, this cluster of showers and thunderstorms will track into the Philippines during the middle of next week.
The main impact appears to be the potential for flooding downpours; however, mudslides and localized wind damage cannot be ruled out at this stage, as the impacts will vary depending on the ultimate strength and organization of this potential tropical cyclone.
Another factor that could lead to a greater risk of flooding is that daily showers and thunderstorms from this weekend into next week will saturate the ground in advance of the tropical downpours expected to arrive midweek.