An area of low pressure will become better organized in the coming days and will likely be a named tropical cyclone by this weekend.
A slow drift northward is expected through the weekend keeping the developing cyclone over warm ocean waters and relatively low wind shear.
These conditions will promote further development, and the cyclone will likely reach the equivalent of tropical storm then hurricane strength by early next week.
Weak steering flow across the Arabian Sea early next week will cause the storm to meander northward; however, it remains possible that the storm could take more of a westward track causing it to approach eastern Yemen or Oman.
If the storm continues northward and remains over the Arabian Sea early next week, interaction with a weak trough to the north will continue to pull the cyclone north to northeast with an eventual landfall in Pakistan or northwestern India.
Since this storm has not yet developed and several factors will determine its exact track, anyone with interests in the southern Arabian Peninsula, Pakistan or northwestern India should monitor this situation closely in the coming days.