As Gonzalo heads towards Europe, attention has turned to the Gulf of Mexico where a piece from what was once-Tropical Storm Trudy in the eastern Pacific may develop into a tropical system this week.
Trudy made landfall over southwest Mexico on Saturday, bringing heavy rain to the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. A piece of the system is expected to cross the country and reach the Bay of Campeche early this week.
Although the Gulf of Mexico has been quiet in terms of tropical development this season, environmental conditions could be conducive for a system to develop in the southern parts of the basin.
AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Erik Pindrock stated that water temperatures are more than sufficiently warm enough for tropical development. However, the same cannot be said for the basin when it comes to the absense of strong wind shear that can shred apart tropical systems.
"[Wind] shear across the Gulf of Mexico over the next several days will be highest in the north and lowest in the south. Given that convection associated with the remnants of Trudy moves into the Bay of Campeche [in the southern Gulf of Mexico], environmental conditions will be somewhat conducive for tropical development," said Pindrock.
According to AccuWeather.com meteorologist Brian Edwards, "If it were to develop, it should develop over the Bay of Campeche. Increased [wind] shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico should limit development as it approaches South Florida."
Regardless if it becomes a tropical depression or storm, heavy rain is expected from the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, northern Cuba and South Florida Thursday and Friday, and the Bahamas on Saturday.
According to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Evan Duffey, "The heaviest rainfall should occur along the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the week. Regardless if it develops into a tropical system, there will be a risk of mudslides and urban flooding."
Even though it is autumn, the Atlantic hurricane season continues until the end of November. The peak of hurricane activity normally occurs in early September. However, a second peak of tropical activity occurs in the middle of October.
"As we go into the end of October into early November, wind shear increases over the United States and the Atlantic Ocean. This causes development to occur most often over the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean," continued Edwards.