Tropical Storm Polo formed off the west coast of Mexico on Tuesday, right on the heels of former Hurricane Odile which brought devastation to parts of Baja California.
While Polo still remains slightly disorganized due to interaction with moderate wind shear, a northwest track over the next 24 to 48 hours will move the tropical storm into an area more favorable for strengthening with lower wind shear and very warm water temperatures.
While moving over this more favorable area Polo is expected to strengthen and eventually reach hurricane strength late Wednesday or Thursday.
During this time, Polo will track close enough to the Mexico coastline that tropical storm-force wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall will impact coastal areas from western Guerrero through Jalisco. Flooding is the greatest concern during this time.
Polo is expected to remain on a general northwest track, parallel to the Mexico coastline through this weekend when it will make its closest approach to southern Baja California.
These areas are still recovering from former Hurricane Odile which brought widespread damaging winds and flooding rainfall to the popular tourist destinations of the region.
While a direct landfall is not expected on Baja California, Polo may track close enough to bring gusty winds and localized downpours late this week.
An upper-level ridge will strengthen later this week over the Southwest United States turning Polo to the west-northwest, farther from Baja California and keeping the worst impacts over the open Eastern Pacific.