An area of low pressure located across the North Sea will dive to the south across central Europe and into the Italy by Monday. Showers and thunderstorms will cover central and southern Europe, including the threat for heavy rain and local flooding.
On Sunday afternoon, the greatest flooding risk will occur across the Alps as drenching thunderstorms develop across Austria and eastern Switzerland. Due to the heavy rain falling on mountains terrain, small streams could see a rapid rise in water levels leading to a dangerous flash flooding threat.
Sunday night, drenching thunderstorms will drop to the south across northern Italy, Slovenia and northern Croatia. Across northeastern Italy, western Slovenia and Croatia, rainfall could exceed 50 mm (2 inches) which can lead to ponding on roadways and flooding in poor drainage areas.
Some locations in this region have seen above-average rainfall through August, so the flooding threat will be elevated in these areas. Treviso, Italy, north of Venice, received over 3 times their average August rainfall.
By Monday the low will move across Italy which will bring locally heavy rain across the country, as well as from western Croatia to Albania. The greatest threat for flooding will be across the Apennine Mountains in Italy and across the Dinaric Alps, just to the west of the Adriatic Sea. Similar to across the Alps, drenching thunderstorms across the mountains terrain could lead to a rapid rise in streams.
Through the middle of the week, while the heavy rain and flooding threats will diminish, this area of low pressure will lead to further showers and locally heavy thunderstorms across Italy and the Balkans.