Cyclone Organizing, Japan Likely Target

An area of low pressure currently just south of Guam will become better organized during the next 24 to 48 hours.

During this time, transition into a tropical cyclone is expected. The name Neoguri will be given to the storm as it continues to intensify and track northwest over the open western Pacific.

In the short term, the low will bring rain and gusty winds to Guam as it continues to strengthen. Flash flooding and wind gusts over 50 mph will be possible at times.

By the weekend, the low will have become a tropical cyclone and will be moving away from Guam.

Rapid strengthening is possible over the weekend and into early next week as the cyclone would move through an area of very warm ocean waters and low wind shear.

The cyclone is expected to continue on a northwest track early next week taking it near the Ryukyu Islands and southern Japan.

There remains high confidence that this developing cyclone will become the second typhoon of the 2014 Western Pacific season.

Flooding rain and damaging winds will occur along the path of the storm putting the Ryukyu Islands and southern Japan at risk through the middle of the week.

While the expected track is toward Japan, Taiwan should remain on alert as well. A cold front moving into eastern Asia early next week is expected to direct the potential cyclone northward and away from Taiwan; however, were this front to arrive slower, the storm could track farther west and approach Taiwan.

Circulation around the cyclone could also lead to a strengthening monsoon across the Philippines with flooding rainfall possible in west-central and northwest parts of the country, depending on the exact track of the storm.