A disturbance drifting into Atlantic waters off the Carolina coast this weekend has the potential to develop into a weak tropical system during the week of Independence Day.
AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski stated in a recent interview that this would be an area to watch as June comes to a close and July begins.
"If the center of low pressure spends enough time off the Atlantic coast and wind shear diminishes, it could evolve into an organized tropical system," Kottlowski said.
Wind shear occurs when air in the tropics blows from the west at high speeds over the middle layers of the atmosphere. These winds can prevent tropical systems from forming, limit intensification, or lead their demise.
Sea surface temperatures in this area generally range from 75 to 80 F and are warm enough to support a tropical system.
This area of disturbed weather, tropical or not, is projected to meander over the East Coast waters of the Carolinas and Florida this weekend and into early next week due to light steering winds.
The disturbance will contribute to locally drenching showers and thunderstorms over the Carolinas for a time as it wraps moisture around from the Atlantic.
"The storms could impact travel and outdoor activities as they have the potential to bring blinding downpours, flash flooding and locally gusty winds," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
There is a chance that the low pressure center drifts closer to the coast during the middle and latter part of next week.
"Because of the uncertain track and proximity to land, interests along the east coast of Florida, northward to the mid-Atlantic coast will need to be monitored, as this system evolves next week," Kottlowski said.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic, conditions do not favor development.
"Vast areas of strong wind shear, dry air and dust cover much of the southern North Atlantic and will inhibit development into next week," Kottlowski said.
In the Eastern Pacific, development of a significant tropical system is likely later this weekend into next week.
"The storms could impact travel and outdoor activities as they have the potential to bring blinding downpours, flash flooding and locally gusty winds," Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson said.
Steering winds in this area will either direct any system to the northwest or possibly on a more northerly track. The latter track would have more direct impact on the west coast of Mexico.