An area of disturbed weather over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is going nowhere fast this week but will bring unsettled conditions for days to the region.
Clouds, showers and thunderstorms have replaced sunshine in the vicinity of the Yucatan Peninsula and much of southern Mexico this week versus last week.
Moisture and a broad area of low pressure are forecast to continue to hover over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche this week into next week.
According to AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "We do not see any significant tropical system forming in the Bay of Campeche this week."
A system nearby on the Pacific side of Central America was competing with the area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
The system over the eastern Pacific Ocean is forecast to drift onshore into southern Mexico at midweek. While this system will break up over mountainous terrain, some moisture could later feed the system over the Bay of Campeche.
Should the system on the Pacific side of Central America reach tropical storm intensity, it would be named Boris.
The combination of the Gulf and Pacific features will bring an uptick in tropical downpours in part of southeastern Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. While some rain is needed in the region, the potential for flash flooding would increase into the weekend over the region.
"There is a small chance that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico could become organized into a tropical system next week," Kottlowski said.
Steering winds are very light in the region and would tend to keep any low pressure area bottled up in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through this week.
Until then the area will be affected by clouds, sporadic heavy rainfall and isolated gusty thunderstorms but explosive tropical development on the Atlantic side is not likely.