Tropical troubles brewing in the eastern Pacific may lead to concerns in the Gulf and far northwestern Caribbean soon after the official start to the Atlantic hurricane season.
AccuWeather.com meteorologists are monitoring an area south of Mexico, in the eastern Pacific, for a new tropical storm to take shape early next week.
It is possible that the system's energy could then slowly fuel tropical development in the Atlantic Basin in the days that follow.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin officially commences on June 1.
After tracking across and bringing the threat of flooding rain to southern Mexico and neighboring Central America, energy from the system is likely to reach the southern Gulf of Mexico or the far northwestern Caribbean during the latter part of next week.
"The environment that we are seeing unfolding across the Gulf of Mexico and far northwestern Caribbean for next week would cause any tropical feature to move slowly and support possible slow development," stated AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller.
Regardless of whether a tropical system takes shape, heavy rain could be drawn across western Cuba and northward to Florida and the central Gulf Coast later next week or the following weekend.
The area of concern for tropical development in both basins is currently located several hundred miles south of southern Mexico and is a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms.
"A broad area of low pressure with tropical characteristics is expected to organize out of this cluster by Sunday," stated Miller.
"It will tend to drift northward into the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Tuesday, possibly strengthening into a strong tropical storm or hurricane."
The waters in the path of the system are sufficiently warm for tropical development. While some wind shear (winds above the surface that can rip apart developing tropical systems) is present, it is not overly strong.
The next tropical storm in the eastern Pacific would acquire the name "Boris."
Miller expects the system to move inland from the Gulf of Tehuantepec around Tuesday of next week.
"The threat for damaging wind would be in a concentrated area around the point of landfall. Flooding rain and mudslides would be the main impact with some mountainous areas potentially receiving 10 to 20 inches (250 to 500 mm) of rain through early next week," Miller continued.
As the system moves onshore and its moisture is drawn northward, heavy rain is likely to overspread the majority of far southeastern Mexico, including the Yucatan Peninsula, as well as Guatemala and Belize.
Cities potentially to endure a soaking from the system include Oaxaca, Veracruz, Merida, Belmopan and Guatemala City. Vacationers at the resort cities of Cancun and Chetumal also face an unpleasant wet stretch of weather.
"It has already been active across the resort areas on the Yucatan Peninsula due to daily thunderstorms, but the weather will only get worse next week as moisture from the eastern Pacific system comes into play," Miller stated.
Despite the disruptions to vacationers and the prospect of flooding and mudslides, Miller pointed out that the rain will bring long-term benefits to easing the ongoing drought across the area.
If the system in the eastern Pacific acquires the name "Boris" and makes the track across southern Mexico without dissipating, it would then keep the name "Boris" in the Gulf of Mexico or northwestern Caribbean.
If the system dissipates over southern Mexico and only a piece of its energy fuels a new tropical storm, the new system would acquire a name from the Atlantic Basin's list. The first tropical storm of 2014 in the Atlantic would be named "Arthur."