Fox News Weather Center

Cyclone Well West of Australia, Development Possible in Arafura Sea

A cluster of showers and storms over the South Indian Ocean last week organized into Tropical Cyclone Jack on Friday.

Jack is over the open waters, and the cyclone is not expected to pose a threat to land through at least the latter part of the upcoming week as it tracks in a general southeasterly direction.

Environmental conditions into early Monday will be favorable for some additional strengthening with water temperatures ranging from 27-29°C (80-84°F) and relatively low wind shear. However, as the storm continues southeast next week, it will move over cooler waters and an environment of increased wind shear which will strip the cyclone of its tropical characteristics.

The remnants of Jack will approach Western Australia later next week or weekend, however, any impacts to the state will be minimal and in the form of a shower or two.

As Jack weakens during the upcoming week, attention will turn to the Arafura and Timor Seas for continued unsettled weather and possible tropical development.

A broad area of convection that has persisted through the last several days will continue through next week with the possibility of a more focused area of lower pressure developing between Horn Island and the northern coast of Northern Territory.

Regardless of tropical development, squally weather will impact the northern portion of Northern Territory as well as Horn Island and the northern peninsula of Queensland through much of the week where 50-100 mm (2-4 inches) of rain can fall. Winds will be generally less than 65 kph (40 mph), but a few higher gusts cannot be ruled out.