The Western Pacific has been relatively tranquil for the past month with no active tropical cyclones.
An area of showers and thunderstorms south of Guam, will have an opportunity to become better organized this week as it drifts westward toward the Philippines.
Warm ocean water temperatures combined with relatively low amounts of wind shear will provide a favorable environment for potential tropical development this week.
Development is expected to be slow, but by the second half of the week the first named tropical cyclone of the season could have its sight set on the Philippines.
This potential tropical cyclone would likely take a track to the west-northwest, which would lead to a landfall in the Philippines as early as this weekend.
The area that could suffer the worst impacts is southern and central Philippines, including some of the areas still recovering from former Super Typhoon Haiyan.
The greatest threat at this time appears to be for flooding rainfall, although some damaging winds will be possible if the cyclone were to development faster and have more time to strengthen.