Tropical Cyclone 06B has developed over the Bay of Bengal, just northeast of Sri Lanka and east of India.
After producing locally heavy rainfall across Sri Lanka and the southeast coastline of India this week, a large area of unsettled weather has organized into a named tropical cyclone.
Parts of eastern Sri Lanka have already received 150-300 mm (6-12 inches) of rainfall this week after rounds of rain and thunderstorms moved over the region.
Now that Tropical Cyclone 06B has formed it is expected to drift northward into early next week.
This track will take the heaviest rainfall away from Sri Lanka while also keeping it east of India over the open Bay of Bengal.
The southeast coast of India could still get isolated downpours from the storm, but any widespread heavy rainfall will remain offshore through early next week.
The long-term future of Tropical Cyclone 06B is not certain at this time. Two scenarios exist: the first causing the storm to stall east of India early next week then reverse course and track south or southwest toward southeast India and Sri Lanka later next week.
This track would lead to potentially flooding rainfall for southeastern India, especially coastal areas from Chennai southward. This track would also bring more heavy rainfall to parts of Sri Lanka that are already saturated from the recent rain.
The second scenario would involve the cyclone bring pulled northeastward by a trough to the north. If this were to happen, it is likely that increasing shear would weaken the storm quickly as it approached Myanmar with heavy rainfall but less threat of damaging winds.