A strong storm will be taking shape over the next several days from Argentina through southern Brazil, likely to bring not only some heavy, flooding rain, but also some severe weather.
A storm looks to form Monday night over northern Argentina and quickly develop into a heavy rain-producing storm. Though the worst of the rain Monday night looks to be over northern Argentina, primarily a farming region, this will quickly shift into the day Tuesday.
By Tuesday afternoon, the center of the storm pushes eastward over Paraguay and Uruguay, eventually moving into extreme southern Brazil for Tuesday night. That part of the storm will be responsible for the heavy rainfall, as over 100 mm (4 inches) of rain is possible from Cordoba, Argentina, through the southern tip of Brazil.
Though heavy rainfall is only part of the concern, there is also a good side to this rain as most agriculture over the area will see beneficial rain with this. Though the past few weeks have been somewhat wetter than normal, there has been little rain in the past year, making the drought an issue for any farmers.
Some thunderstorms the past few weeks over the area have been spotty with heavy rainfall, but Cordoba, Argentina, saw over 230 mm (9 inches) of rain since Oct. 1st. The majority of that rain has fallen in the past 20 days also. This will aid in the threat for flooding across the area.
The severe storms look to form later Tuesday into Tuesday evening across extreme northern Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and southern Brazil. The major cities in the threat of these storms include: Asuncion, Paraguay; Sao Paulo, Brazil; and Santa Cruz, Bolivia.
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The biggest threat will be with heavy rainfall, but wind gusts of over 100 kph (60 mph) will be possible along with some hail. Tornadoes will also be possible with this, but most of those are more limited to southern parts of the front.
This threat will continue to push north and eastward for Wednesday. The front will be slow-moving, increasing the flooding threat into Wednesday.
Severe weather is common over the area, with this region being the second biggest threat for severe weather outside of the United States. This is also the prime time as the South American winter gives way to warmth of spring coming in from the north.
Story by AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert