Tropical Storm Krosa has strengthened during the past 24 hours and looks to continue strengthening as it tracks west-northwestward toward northern Luzon.
Conditions will deteriorate on Thursday across the northern Philippines as Krosa approaches from the east. Krosa will make landfall over far northern Luzon Thursday night, local time, as either a strong tropical storm or typhoon.
As a result, locally damaging winds are expected across northern Luzon, well north of the capital city of Manila and other highly populated areas. The heaviest rainfall will also be north of Manila.
According to Accuweather.com Meteorologist Eric Wanenchak, "125-250 mm (5-10 inches) of rainfall is expected across northern Luzon later Thursday into Friday as Krosa passes over the area from east to west." This amount of rainfall will produce flooding problems and potential mudslides.
The interaction with Luzon will likely weaken Krosa as it moves into the South China Sea on Friday. Environmental conditions will allow another round of strengthening, and Krosa could again become a typhoon over the open South China Sea by late Friday or Saturday.
Krosa will continue to track generally westward over the South China Sea which will result in the tropical system approaching Hainan Island on Sunday. Higher wind shear combined with land interaction will result in a weakening Krosa as it approaches Hainan.
Still flooding rainfall and mudslides will be a potential impact from Krosa before it weakens further and drifts toward northern Vietnam.