Published September 24, 2013
Sunny versus stormy weather on the East coast this weekend is contingent upon the development and track of a storm over the western Atlantic Ocean.
Current indications are that a storm will spin up just off the Atlantic coast this weekend. One scenario swings that storm westward with heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas.
Forecasts from the eastern part of the Carolinas to the I-95 mid-Atlantic and New England this weekend into next week are contingent on the track and strength of a storm expected to form offshore.
A non-tropical system moving off the East coast could capture tropical moisture and a weak tropical system in such a way to spin up a major storm this weekend and may produce nasty weather in some Atlantic Seaboard locations.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "The potential system off the Atlantic coast this weekend is not likely to be purely tropical but would likely be a hybrid."
Even if the storm remains out to sea, large swells could be generated, especially north and east of the center from east of the Outer Banks to Georges Bank.
Cruise, shipping and offshore fishing interests should monitor the progress of this storm, even if the weather for land lubbers remains clear.
Part of the system will affect Florida through the middle of this week with heavy rain.
How strong the storm becomes and the track it takes will determine sunny versus stormy conditions at Cape Hatteras, N.C., Atlantic City, N.J., New York City and Boston.
"The possibilities range from the storm becoming very strong, backing westward then paralleling the coast, to just brushing New England to remaining weak and escaping harmlessly out to sea," Kottlowski said.
Regardless of classification of the storm (tropical, non-tropical or hybrid), there is the potential for building seas from the Carolinas to New England later this weekend which could remain rough into early next week. This could produce not only rough surf and strong rip currents, but also beach erosion in some communities.
Meanwhile, a potent storm may also affect part of the West Coast this weekend.
According to Expert Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson, "One scenario brings heavy rain, strong winds and rough seas to areas from British Columbia to parts of Washington and western Oregon."
The details on the track and severity of the Atlantic and Pacific coast storms will unfold as the week progresses.