Published September 18, 2013
The tropical hot spot near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to give birth to the next tropical depression and storm in the Atlantic basin late this week.
According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "Atmospheric conditions will cause the disturbance to drift into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and become the next organized tropical system in the Atlantic basin Thursday into Friday."
The next tropical depression that forms in the Atlantic for 2013 would be number 11, and the next name on the list of tropical storms is Jerry.
Rain from this system is likely to drench part of northeastern Mexico and the Texas coast this weekend.
In addition to bringing needed rain to parts of Texas, when combined with an approaching front from the north, it will bring the potential for flash and urban flooding.
The system will again stir up the western Gulf of Mexico, and surf could become dangerous by this weekend along the Texas coast. There is the potential for tides to run above published levels, and seas could get rough enough to suspend some offshore oil and gas rig operations for a time.
The movement of the developed tropical system later this weekend into early next week is uncertain.
"If the system misses the connection to ride northeastward into the southeastern U.S. this weekend, it could stall around in the Gulf of Mexico for a few days perhaps to get shunted eastward across the Florida Peninsula at a later date," Kottlowski said.
Rain from the tropical system is unlikely to reach central and northern Texas.
"A front dropping in from the Plains is likely to bring a few showers and thunderstorms to central, western northern and northeastern Texas Thursday into Friday night," Kottlowski added.
The front and at least some tropical moisture will then slide eastward across the Deep South this weekend in the form of locally heavy rain and perhaps severe thunderstorms.
Cooler and drier air will expand southeastward across Texas this weekend but will not reach all of the Texas coast until Saturday night.
Parts of northeastern Mexico have been slammed by torrential rainfall and flooding this past weekend into early Wednesday morning associated with Ingrid. Between 9 and 11 inches of rain have fallen on Tampico, Monterrey, Tuxpan and Victoria City, Mexico, this week.
While rain from Ingrid has diminished Wednesday, any additional rain in eastern Mexico in the near future could bring great risks to lives and property.
Farther north in Texas, rain will be welcomed by many.
Brownsville has received rain on a daily basis during much of September and has over 11 inches to show for it, compared to a normal total September rainfall of about 6 inches. However, rainfall diminishes farther north along the Texas coast. Rainfall amounts range from near normal around Corpus Christi to only about 25 percent of normal around Houston and less than 10 percent of normal around the Golden Triangle.
Close to the Texas coast, the moisture from the front will be enhanced by the tropical system and could bring locally excessive rainfall.