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Tropical System to Drench Eastern Mexico, Maybe South Texas

The southwestern Gulf of Mexico is likely to give birth to the next tropical system in the Atlantic basin late this week. The system will then spread downpours into eastern Mexico and perhaps South Texas.

During the middle of this week, a tropical disturbance was moving slowly westward across the Yucatan Peninsula. As this feature drifts into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, known as the Bay of Campeche, it is likely to become a tropical depression at the end of the week.

The system has a chance at becoming the next named tropical storm of the 2013 Atlantic hurricane season. The next name on the list is Ingrid following currently active systems Tropical Storm Gabrielle and Hurricane Humberto.

The greatest impacts from this system will likely be heavy rainfall, incidents of flash flooding and mudslides. Depending on the strength of the system, there is also the potential for rough surf and seas over part of the western Gulf, which could potentially disrupt bathers, fishing and petroleum operations in the region for a brief time.

Part of eastern Mexico has been hit by multiple tropical systems with flooding in recent weeks including Fernand and Tropical Depression Eight.

The system also brings an opportunity for needed rainfall farther north along the Mexico coast and in South Texas, depending on its track. Any reasonable rainfall will be welcomed by many residential and agricultural interests over the Rio Grande Valley.

Details as to the amount of rainfall and magnitude of problems will unfold later this week as the system begins to develop and track over the Bay of Campeche. However, enough rain capable of causing flash flooding and mud slides will occur over the Yucatan Peninsula during the next couple of days with local rainfall amounts of 6 inches.