Published August 27, 2013
There is a chance that not one, but two systems may develop in the tropical Atlantic next week, during the early days of September.
While the Atlantic Basin still has a way to go for being considered busy from the standpoint of active tropical systems, there is already a toward more disturbances and less extensive dry air.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "With the changing atmospheric conditions over the entire basin now, we could have at least two systems organizing this weekend spanning the area from just off the coast of Africa to the Caribbean and the eastern Gulf of Mexico."
"We are noticing a more moist and unstable environment taking shape over the tropical Atlantic this week, and we have indication now that multiple systems could develop at the same time during the first week of September," Kottlowski added.
Development of these systems is one thing; making a forecast track beyond several days until they become better organized is another.
Two systems being watched over the Atlantic will move along in a general westward motion through this week.
"If a large area of high pressure over the central Atlantic remains strong, it will continue to guide the system already over the eastern Atlantic water farther west, into the Caribbean later this weekend," Kottlowski said. "If the high weakens, it could allow that feature to turn northward and miss the Caribbean."
Gauging intensity of these systems this far out is challenging. However, if either of the two systems were move into a zone with without disruptive winds, development from a disturbance to a depression, tropical storm or hurricane could occur quickly.
The water over much of the basin is warm enough to sustain tropical systems.
"There is also a chance something crops up in the Gulf or western Caribbean with a couple of weak disturbances currently hovering nearby," Kottlowski added.
As far as considering travel in the Caribbean or to beach destinations in the coastal U.S., this is not the time to change any plans, but instead monitor the tropics.
The six weeks from September to early October is traditionally the busiest part of the hurricane season.
According to AccuWeather.com Sr. Vice President Joseph P. Sobel, Ph.D., "It is highly unlikely that we will not have a hurricane somewhere over the Atlantic during the first 15 days of September."