While dry air continues to hinder tropical development over much of the Atlantic Basin at present, the scale is likely to tip in favor of multiple tropical systems within the next few weeks.
According to Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski, "From a climatological standpoint, the flow of dry air over the basin now is likely to shrink in size and weaken moving into September."
A few weeks from now, it is very possible there will be multiple active tropical storms and/or hurricanes at the same time with warm waters, moist surface air and diminishing disruptive winds each playing a role.
Since a large part of the Southeast United States has been so wet this summer, there is an elevated risk for inland flooding in this area, should a tropical storm or hurricane make landfall in the region.
In the short term, a couple of disturbances are forecast to drift westward across the Gulf of Mexico. One is doing so now. Another is likely to do so next week.
"The lower atmosphere over the Gulf of Mexico is more moist than over much of the tropical Atlantic at this time," Kottlowski said.
Although these systems will be moving fast and could have too little time to organize, they will be monitored for tropical development because of the more moist atmosphere over the region.
Regardless of development of these features, there are likely to be pulses of showers and thunderstorms moving from east to west across the Gulf Coast areas.
"Into next week, barometric pressure is forecast to rise over the tropical Atlantic, which will tend to deter rapid development," Kottlowski added.
Beyond next week, once the pressure starts to fall, we may have multiple troublemakers to monitor.