Published August 12, 2013
Tropical development will become more likely in the Atlantic toward the end of the week.
An area of concern will be in the southwestern Caribbean where an area of low pressure and tropical wave will merge for the middle of the week. There is still much uncertainty with the path this system will take, but one possibility is migration north into the Gulf of Mexico.
If this storm is allowed to drift northward, the area could become an organized system in the Gulf near the end of the week.
However, most scenarios have a front moving off the coast of the United States later in the week, that could force the system into Central America.
Even if no system becomes organized in the Gulf, some of the moisture could sneak up into the southeastern United States for the weekend.
"All that tropical moisture could go up into the Southeast, bringing a flash flooding event," AccuWeather.com Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity warned.
"That's the danger in these kinds of patterns, especially with the wet pattern that we've been in all summer," Margusity said.
Even more of a concern will be out in the Atlantic later this week.
In the middle of the Atlantic early this week, two tropical waves were moving through the dry environment created by dust moving off the coast of northern Africa. With this setup, the storms have a very low chance to develop.
But late in the week, another tropical wave will move off the African coast into a less-hostile environment.
As we get later into the hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin, conditions are becoming more favorable for tropical development.
The massive plume of Saharan dust pushing off the coast of Africa will begin to dissipate, allowing for the moist environment necessary for systems to strengthen.
This is also the time of year that shredding winds will back off, letting tropical systems have the time to develop.
"We are expecting these negative factors to weaken later in the week and into the weekend," said AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski.