Published June 30, 2013
After moving through the Philippines, strengthening Tropical Storm Rumbia is now on a collision course with South China.
The AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center expects Rumbia to slam onshore early Tuesday morning (local time, Monday afternoon EDT) between Hong Kong and the Luichow Peninsula.
More specifically, landfall will occur between the Leizhou Bay and Yangjiang.
Rumbia will be a strong tropical storm or minimal typhoon at that time, but its impacts on South China will be the same regardless of its exact classification.
The compact nature of Rumbia's damaging winds will confine wind speeds of 50 to 80 mph (80 to 130 kph) to within a small area along the coast where Rumbia makes landfall.
Rumbia's storm surge will be responsible for water levels reaching 2 to 4 feet (0.5 to 1.2 meters), perhaps up to 5 feet (1.5 meters) in isolated areas, above normal high-tide along the coastline, according to AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Anthony Sagliani.
Flooding rain will definitely be the most widespread danger to residents in South China.
Rumbia's heaviest rain will remain on its southern and western side, bringing the possibility of 5 to 10 inches (120 mm to 250 mm) of rain to communities from northern Hainan Island to the western half of Guangdong province.
While locally higher amounts are possible (especially in the higher terrain), Rumbia will move quick enough through South China to prevent widespread rain totals in excess of a foot (300 mm).
However, serious flash flooding is still a significant concern since the majority of Rumbia's rain will pour down in 12 to 24 hours. Mudslides could also unfold in the higher terrain.
Hong Kong should escape the worst of Rumbia with squally rain bands instead delivering 1 to 2 inches of rain, but residents are urged to not let their guard down.
AccuWeather.com International Expert Meteorologist Jim Andrews warns that a track closer to the city than currently expected would increase the threat for a period of damaging winds.
After making landfall early Tuesday morning, Rumbia should dissipate by Wednesday.