A slow-moving tropical depression will continue to bring torrential rainfall and the risk of flooding to parts of southeastern Mexico, Belize and Guatemala into midweek.
Because the system's forward speed has slowed and much of its circulation was over land, it could unravel.
The system is forecast to track near the coast of the Mexico states of Tabasco and Veracruz over the rest of the week. Whether or not the system manages to drift over the warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico (Bah of Campeche) will likely determine its survival status.
According to Tropical Weather Expert Dan Kottlowski, "A drift back over the warm waters would provide an opportunity for minimal strengthening, perhaps to a tropical storm. If the system remains over land, no regain of strength is likely, and the system, along with much of its rain, will slowly diminish."
In either case, enough thundery rain will fall to cause flash and urban flooding from Belize and northern Guatemala to the Mexico states of Quintana Roo, Yucatan, Campeche, Chiapas and Tabasco, spreading to Veracruz and part of Oaxaca as the week progresses. Mudslides are also a concern.
Daily rainfall will average 2 to 4 inches and much of this region with local amounts of 4 to 8 inches.
Indications continue to suggest that the bulk of the rain will stay south of much of Texas. There is a chance that some leftover moisture is funnel up toward the Big Bend area and into part of western Texas toward the weekend.
"Interestingly, the same parent tropical wave that produced the Atlantic tropical depression could spin up a much stronger system over the Eastern Pacific Basin by next week," Kottlowski said.
That feature could bring torrential rainfall and gusty thunderstorms along part of Mexico's southern coast, perhaps in the vicinity of Acapulco for a day or two, before moving westward into the open Pacific.
According to International Weather Expert Jim Andrews, "During the 48-hour period ending Tuesday morning, Belize City, Belize has received 8.01 inches of rain with 6.10 inches falling on Tela, Honduras."
Farther north from the storm center, Chetumal, Mexico, received 1.89 inches of rain during the 24 hours ending Tuesday morning.