A tropical wave moving toward the Yucatan Peninsula through early this week will be monitored for possible development. The focus will shift to the southern Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
The tropical wave will be responsible for torrential rainfall from northern Nicaragua to northern Honduras through early Monday. Tropical downpours can easily produce several inches of rain in a short amount of time. The rainfall can lead to flash flooding and mudslides in the region.
Interaction with land is expected to inhibit development through early Monday before it reaches the Yucatan. Though plenty of warm water is available to the system to encourage organization.
Heavy rain will shift into the Yucatan Peninsula Monday unleashing torrential downpours across Belize, Guatemala, and southern Mexico. Locally heavy rain will persist across these areas through at least Tuesday.
The tropical wave will settle into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday into Wednesday. The wave will usher in a plume of high tropical moisture in the southern Gulf of Mexico which will heighten the potential for tropical development.
"There is a slight chance the system can reorganize over the southern Bay of Campeche," AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dave Samuhel said. "However, increasing wind shear, an inhibitor to tropical development, and its proximity to land will limit its chances for development."
Beyond Wednesday, any tropical rains should move west into Mexico.
"No impacts are expected to be felt in the U.S. from this feature," Samuhel said.