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Caribbean to Turn More Active This Week

A large mass of tropical moisture is set to impact the Caribbean Sea over the next couple of days, bringing consistently active weather to the region. As a result, a majority of the islands' residents are at risk for flooding and other issues provided by such consistent and heavy rainfall.

High pressure over Bermuda is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days, while broad low pressure near Central America will push moisture north out of South America. An area of convergence will be found over the Greater Antilles through the week, resulting in heavy showers and thunderstorms.

Compared to normal, activity across the region will be both more numerous and heavier than normal this week. Any individual storm could bring the potential for significant rainfall and as a result, flash flooding.

Urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas will be under the greatest threat this week from flash flooding.

As the rains continue to pile onto the region, mudslides will become an increasing threat to the region. Soils will eventually become saturated enough that it will be allowed to give way. In the higher terrain of the Greater Antilles, this spells mudslides.

To make matters worse, much of the Caribbean has already seen above-normal precipitation this month. The normal precipitation for San Juan for the month of May is 8.05 inches (20.45 centimeters). San Juan has already seen 10.30 inches (26.16 centimeters) on the month, and this week will certainly see that total rise.

Many residents of the region, as well as vacationers, will not be happy to hear that there is no end in sight for the abnormally wet pattern. The high moisture seems to be locked up over the Greater Antilles through this week and perhaps into the weekend.

Some modeling is even trying to take this excessive moisture and develop it into a tropical system somewhere between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. While wind shear in the region will likely hamper development, the threat will have to be monitored. If something were to develop, interests in the Yucatan, Cuba, and the southeastern United States would appear to be the most likely targets.