This is a rush transcript from "Special Report with Bret Baier," November 4, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)
DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: We've had incredible polls. You have probably seen the new Rasmussen poll just came out. We are three points up nationwide and going like a rocket.
TRUMP: Many, many polls. I won't even go over all the polls, but we're leading in Ohio and Iowa.
HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: The choice could not be clearer. Are we going to build a stronger, fairer, better America, or are we going to fear each other and the future?
(END VIDEO CLIPS)
BRET BAIER, ANCHOR: Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump today on the trail as we're closing in on Election Day. Here is where they went. Donald Trump was in New Hampshire, Ohio, and Pennsylvania tonight. Mike Pence in Michigan, North Carolina, and Florida, Donald Trump Junior in Arizona.
And then for the Clinton team, Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Tim Kaine in Florida, President Obama in North Carolina for two stops, Vice President Biden in Wisconsin, Bill Clinton in Colorado for two stops, and Bernie Sanders in Iowa City, Iowa.
Here are the latest FOX News polls. The four-way, Clinton with a two point lead, within the margin of error. As you can see it has shifted from one week ago. And in the head to head, she is now up in our poll, and that has changed from 49 to 44. Among independents, Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump 33 to 41. She has picked up some numbers in this poll from last week with independents. And then level of support, Donald Trump supporters strongly, 71 percent. And there you see Hillary Clinton supporters 65 percent.
With that, let's start there and bring in our panel: Steve Hayes, senior writer for The Weekly Standard; Lisa Boothe, columnist with the Washington Examiner; Tim Farley, host of "Morning Briefing POTUS" on SiriusXM Radio, and syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer.
All right, Tim, what do you make of the polls, the maps?
TIM FARLEY, SIRIUSXM RADIO: Momentum, really, because if you go to the Real Clear Politics average, you can almost throw it out now looking at this. Independents moved away from Johnson maybe.
But here's another thing. I was looking at 1968 thinking about Hubert Humphrey. I know it's ancient history for a lot of people. But Hubert Humphrey, a lot of people thought another week or two he would have wound up winning the race. And you had a lot of similar kind of division in the country. You had an unlikable Richard Nixon. You had an unacceptable George Wallace who did wind up getting some electoral votes that year. You had the terrible Vietnam War, an albatross over the president, Lyndon Johnson, who decided not to run. All of those things together, Richard Nixon ekes out a victory, an unpopular victory.
And I think in this particular case, Hillary Clinton is not burdened by that albatross over President Obama. He is still very popular. All coming down to it, I just don't think that Donald Trump has enough time to win. I think that he has shown momentum, but I still think that Hillary Clinton based on what I'm seeing in the polls still winds up getting the victory. Very much like in 1968, it's just -- he is going to run out of time.
LISA BOOTHE, WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Yes. Obviously, I'm not going to break news. Donald Trump is surging right now and he is closing in on her. Look at Florida, Ohio, and Iowa, all look very good for Trump. North Carolina, Republicans are over performing early voting margins from 2012, Democrats are underperforming. And even if you take a look at some of the more elusive states like Pennsylvania and Michigan, you look at Pennsylvania, there's a poll out today, Harper polling, that has them tied because he is doing better in the Pittsburgh area. You look at Michigan, Detroit Free Press has him down by four. But what's interesting about Michigan is that he is over performing blue collar areas like Macomb. And then he also is doing much better in higher income areas like Oakland, higher educated, higher income, like Oakland where he was down a few weeks ago by around 20 points. Now he is down by only four. So if he over performs in Macomb and the upper peninsula area but then does as well as he is doing now in Oakland and Grand Rapids, there's a chance he potentially pulls Michigan off.
BAIER: Which would be a huge win in a blue state traditionally. FOX News Poll 7 is the honest and trustworthy number. Hillary Clinton at 31, 66, Donald Trump at 38, 58 in the newest polls, Charles.
CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: That's all a reflection of the Comey recount. I mean, this is all the after effects of that bomb. A lot -- some of it is WikiLeaks, but I don't think WikiLeaks had a dramatic affect. There's also the Obamacare, the rise in the premiums really affecting people with their wallets. It was the fact that the charge is now revived she's under indictment. Or she could be. She's under investigation, criminal investigation.
BAIER: Let's be clear here. Let's just be very clear here.
KRAUTHAMMER: That was a slip of the tongue.
BAIER: Holy cow.
KRAUTHAMMER: That was not intended. That was not innuendo. That was simply a slip. So I think that -- I made that clear.
So here she is. And in the ads Trump is saying she's under criminal investigation. That revived everything that had been buried and banished when he gave her this sort of semi-exoneration in July. That's what we're seeing.
I mean, look, all you have do is to say that if nationally -- if everywhere he loses a point or two or three, which he certainly has and probably more, nationwide that shifts a whole bunch of states into different categories, and that accounts for what we're seeing.
I suspect that the effect of that is now attenuated. This is not a growing influence on the campaign. It's probably spent, so that unless there is another revelation, another shocking WikiLeaks, it could stabilize it right where it is and we end up with your scenario, which is a Clinton squeaker.
BAIER: We're not going to hear from Director Comey before the election.
KRAUTHAMMER: No. There might be a WikiLeaks.
STEVE HAYES, THE WEEKLY STANDARD: I think we're beyond WikiLeaks, actually. If you're planting -- if you're planting leaks in order to try to effect the outcome of an election, it's hard to break through if you do it over the weekend. I think it is sort of striking that we haven't seen any of the, you know, the deleted emails that people thought might be included in the WikiLeaks dumps. We never really saw the kinds of emails that I think many people anticipated.
On the FBI investigation, I think you're right, she obviously is hurt by this over the past week. It's been sort of the obsession of everybody. There is no doubt that what James Comey said in looking again at these Anthony Weiner, Huma Abedin emails from that laptop constitutes a significant review.
I do think it's the case that there is this ongoing investigation of the Clinton Foundation. Now, this has been disputed in media reports back and forth. I have had people tell me that that investigation is active and ongoing. You've reported the same. We have seen other people report that, too. Tom Fuentes on CNN, who is their senior law enforcement analyst and a former FBI official sourced to senior officials at the FBI in a report that he gave over the weekend that this is ongoing. He said three different times in the interview that this was an ongoing investigation. So I think all of that taken together suggests that this has been a story that has dominated the news cycle and left Donald Trump sort of not the focus of the news over the past week.
BAIER: All right, take a listen to President Obama. You mentioned him, Lisa, on the trail today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: You don't have to worry about him. This is what I mean about folks not being focused. First of all, we live in a country that respects free speech.
OBAMA: So, second of all, it looks like maybe he might have served in our military and we ought to respect that.
OBAMA: Third of all, he was elderly and we have got to respect our elders.
OBAMA: And fourth of all, don't boo. Vote. If we lose focus, we could have problems.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BAIER: He is clearly trying to motivate and get the vote out.
BOOTHE: And specifically with the African-American vote because we're seeing the African-American vote is way down than it was in 2012 in big cities like Detroit, in places where she needs to drive up the margin to win some of these battleground states. North Carolina, that is a big, big problem for Hillary Clinton. And let's also talk about where some of these surrogates are spending their time. They are spending a lot of time in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where they are also spending a lot of money on ad TV as well. Those are states where Hillary Clinton should probably have a little bit better locked up or a little bit more confidence in locking up those states.
But to an earlier point, as far as Hillary Clinton potentially putting out information about Donald Trump, it's too late. I mean, we're looking at the Election Day just a couple days away here on Tuesday. I mean, it's too late for information to hit and get baked in voters' minds. That was the problem for Hillary Clinton with the FBI information because it hit in a perfect amount of time for it to seep into voters' minds. And I think we are seeing the ramifications in that in polls state after state and also at the national level as well.
BAIER: Quickly, you agree?
FARLEY: Oh, I agree the enthusiasm is down. I don't think that's going to kill her at the polls though.
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