Are the latest scandals changing the electoral map?

This is a rush transcript from "Special Report with Bret Baier," November 1, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.


DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If we don't repeal and replace Obamacare, we will destroy American health care forever. It's one of the single most important reasons we must win on November 8th.

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I learned way back in elementary school, I learned it in Sunday school, you know, it's not OK to insult people. It's not OK. And look at what he does. He calls women ugly, disgusting, nasty, all the time. He calls women pigs, rates bodies on a scale from one to 10.


BAIER: That's the campaign trail today.

Here is the latest in the polls. The latest poll is a tracking poll, ABC/Washington Post which puts Donald Trump up 46 percent-45 percent in the four-way race. Interestingly voting early versus on Election Day, and here you see the breakdown, Hillary Clinton 54-41. Donald Trump likely voters on Election Day, 50 to 39. And then enthusiastic, tracking very enthusiastic about a candidate, and you see Saturday-Sunday, Donald Trump 53-43, and that changed from Thursday-Friday, 53-51.

Here are the candidates today. Sometimes it tells us what they're doing as far as the campaigns' focus. Donald Trump in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, Eau Claire, Wisconsin, his V.P. nominee Mike Pence also in Pennsylvania twice with two stops. Hillary Clinton in Dade City, Florida, three stops in Florida today. Bill Clinton also in Florida. Tim Kaine in Appleton, Wisconsin and Madison, Wisconsin. President Obama in Columbus, Ohio. Vice President Biden in Charlotte, North Carolina. And Bernie Sanders in Portland, Maine. Maine has had a lot of people there this year for two electoral votes.

Let's bring in our panel: Mercedes Schlapp, columnist for the Washington Times; A.B. Stoddard, associate editor at RealClearPolitics, and syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer. OK, a lot has happened, Mercedes, over a short time. The question is, how much is it changing the map?

MERCEDES SCHLAPP, WASHINGTON TIMES: That's a great question. I mean, you would think there's been such a huge turn of events with the FBI reopening the case, WikiLeaks exposing a lot of this corruption of what the campaign, Clinton campaign advisers are been talking about, whether it's Podesta, dumping the e-mails.

I think that, look, there's a real challenge here which is that although the Democrats are feeling this anxiety, there's this panic mode right now within the Democratic Party, within the Clinton camp. They're still feeling pretty confident about the electoral map. For Trump, it is critical for him to either get, besides those six key battleground states - - Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, I mean, you're talking Maine, Ohio, Nevada. The three other states he's got to be looks at, that's only 266 electoral votes plus everything else that Romney won. It's going to be, what, what Pennsylvania, Colorado, or New Hampshire.

BAIER: Michigan, I guess.

SCHLAPP: Or Michigan. That's still a bit of an uphill battle. But that is where I think you're going to see the Trump campaign focusing on. If he's able to deliver that message that he did today on Obamacare, on trade, very effective, on message. I think it could definitely help him. Whether he can win it, that's a different story.

BAIER: What's interesting, A.B., is that the Trump message today was really on Obamacare and jobs, and he largely stuck to the script, almost completely. The Hillary Clinton message today was about women and temperament and what he says about women and has in the past. And it coincided with an ad that they put out today.

A.B. STODDARD, REALCLEARPOLITICS: Yes, well, let's start with Trump. I thought it was very effective to focus on Obamacare. I actually think this issue is moving the polls away from Hillary Clinton last week even before the big shocker on Friday.

BAIER: We should point out, today is the open enrollment day for Obamacare.

STODDARD: Right. And these premium hikes have been just devastating. Really she can't defend them. He's been campaigning on them for over a week in the right places. And it's going to be a huge issue I think when you look back at the exit polling after the results come in.

Hillary Clinton has no choice but to finish this campaign, although she wanted to end on sort of a give-the-voters-something-about-me pitch, she can't. She's trying to deflect away from the FBI. She's spending too much time talking about Jim Comey. So she needs to go back to scaring Republican women who are never going to vote for Trump into getting in the car and supporting her. And that's why she's using Alicia Machado and all this other stuff.

BAIER: It's not a motivator --

STODDARD: They think it's the only base play they got.

BAIER: It's the base play.

Charles, Mercedes mentioned the Podesta e-mail that was in WikiLeaks today, here it is, e-mail change one, it's an exchange between John Podesta and Cheryl Mills, former chief of staff for Hillary Clinton. This comes on March 2nd, the day -- 2015 -- the day The New York Times breaks the story about the e-mails. John Podesta says "We are going to have to dump all those e-mails so better do so sooner than later." Cheryl Mills responds, "Thank you, you just got your new nickname."

Now, the campaign asked about this says he was talking about dump meaning get out the e-mails, release them. The problem is what happened. They chose to release some and then they destroyed 33,000 of them with the BleachBit.

The other problem is -- a couple problems. One is they by commenting on this e-mail authenticated the e-mail and the e-mails that they haven't done before. And the other thing is if they were going to dump the e-mails, they would have been dumping classified information.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: There is a word -- if you want to release e-mails, there is a word for that. It's called release. He didn't use the word "release." he used the word "dump." "Dump" means you're releasing something but you're doing it in a way that it will disappear.

Now, it seems to me quite obvious what's going on here. The instinctive reaction of the Clinton campaign, again, reflecting the candidate, herself, is to dump. It's to hide. It's to cover. That's been the way the Clintons have operated for 30 years and that's what they ended up doing. They ended up segregating 30,000 e-mails and then destroying them so that Trey Gowdy said even God can't read them now.

That, look, what's happening here is she is now drowning in the cumulative effect of the WikiLeaks and of the FBI deal. She can't get her message out. I think A.B.'s exactly right. When you have to bring Alicia Machado back on stage three weeks later, or is it now four weeks later, that shows you got nothing left in the tank. This is a desperation move. It's her only move because nothing she says can escape the black hole of all this incoming ammunition. We are looking at all of the weeds and the details of this. Nobody is out there, but what they see is cover-up, concealment, and perhaps even lying.

BAIER: I mean --

KRAUTHAMMER: There's no way out of that.

BAIER: If you give them the benefit of the doubt about the dump and say they were just trying to get it out, it's still, to Charles' point, messy. And I said today, somebody asked me, I said it's like Donald Trump's super- storm Sandy in that it happens right before an election and it fits the narrative, like President Obama was saying I get things done and I work across the aisle. And he shows up in New Jersey and hugs Chris Christie, and suddenly that fits.

SCHLAPP: It's perception.

BAIER: This kind of malaise about the Clintons on a number of fronts fits the narrative that Trump's been talking about on the trail.

SCHLAPP: It's a perception of the deceit, of the cover-up, of the dishonesty, why we can't trust Hillary Clinton. And that's becoming, I think, just so central to this election and the fact that Hillary Clinton is not giving a good enough answer, period. She's trying to run out the clock. She hopes she can get through Election Day by just focusing on Donald Trump. It just leaves the Americans thinking, well, also you have the DOJ serving as sort of the political arm of the Clinton campaign. It's messy. It's why American voters are feeling they can't trust the government. And it's why Hillary Clinton is right now basically trying to have a lifesaver out there to see if she can get through this election and win.

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