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Talking Points

Bill O'Reilly: A new FOX News poll out on the race

The FNC poll says this. Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 44 to 41 percent, a tighter race than the last FNC poll which had it 45-39. Johnson and Stein combined get 10 percent. What about the level of strong support? Clinton 61. Trump 68. That's a big plus for the Republican. Blacks are supporting Clinton 82 percent to just five percent for Trump.

Where are the other 13 percent of the black voters? A disaster that is African-Americans turn out big numbers especially in states like Pennsylvania which Trump needs. Whites going for Trump 50 to 36 for Clinton which is good sign for Trump in places like Iowa and Nevada. Women back Clinton over Trump 48, 38. But it's the opposite with men, they support Trump 44-39 over Clinton. So, you can see it's a polarized country.

FOX poll is somewhat surprising because it shows the race much closer than some in the media believe. Also Hillary Clinton has not been campaigning all this much. So, this might be a wakeup call for her. Mitt Romney thought he had the race won four years ago and look what happened to him. Trump's better show is because more Independent voters are backing him now. A FOX news poll has it 41 percent for Trump. Just 28 for Clinton. She is down seven points with Independents in two weeks. A very significant fall.

Finally poll asked whether voters had favorable opinion of the candidates. Trump locked in 42 percent favorable. Fifty six percent unfavorable. Clinton 45 percent favorable, 53 percent unfavorable. Talking Points will say it again. Whoever wins on November 8th will be the most unfavorable president elect in history. Two new state polls showed up today in Florida. Bloomberg has Trump up by two, a statistical tie. In New Hampshire, Hillary Clinton's lead has been cut by five points in the latest Monmouth poll.

She now leads Trump by four points in the live free or die state. But before all you Trump supporters get too happy, a new "U.S.A. Today" poll also out today has Clinton beating Trump by about 10 points in a four-way race. We checked the methodology on that poll and it's similar to the FOX poll. So there is some confusion afoot. The Gannett Company which owns "U.S.A. Today" is generally very anti-Trump but talking points does not believe the poll is skewed to favor Hillary Clinton. What all this tells is that that Americans are not very happy with either candidate. And that comes through with the trust numbers.

In the FOX survey, 67 percent of likely voters do not trust Hillary Clinton. Sixty two percent do not trust Donald Trump. The fact that Trump is still competing hard and within striking distance, if you believe the FNC poll is kind of amazing. The man has been battered by the media, including some commentators right here on FOX News. Some of that is Trump's own fault. As his past behavior has hurt him and his penchant for airing personal grievances has cost him votes. But Hillary Clinton simply cannot put him away, no matter what Trump does.

And that's because the country is in trouble. And Secretary Clinton refuses to acknowledge that even though the polling on disenchantment is clear, two thirds of Americans are not happy with the direction of America. In order to secure his support, Hillary Clinton has chosen to uphold the policies of President Obama. That is tough territory. With ObamaCare tottering now and economic growth at one percent anemic to say the least. Trump is also an amazing campaigner, pounding the pavement in the four states he needs, Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The guy never sleeps. He just tweets.

Talking Points believes that Hillary Clinton is leading in the race and has a big advantage in the Electoral College. But Trump has regained some momentum as voters start to seriously consider things like blatant media bias, a botched FBI investigation on the email front. And a swamp in Washington that definitely needs to be drained. So the election is not a slam dunk and Mrs. Clinton should understand that. Her support can erode fast if more WikiLeaks stuff comes out. As for Trump, nobody on this planet can predict what he will say or do. But one thing is certain, if he goes down, he's going down fighting. And that's "The Memo".

Bill O'Reilly currently serves as the host of FOX News Channel's (FNC) The O'Reilly Factor (weekdays 8PM/ET), the most watched cable news show for the past 13 years. He joined the network in 1996 and is based in New York. Click here for more information on Bill O'Reilly