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Special Report

Breaking down the Fox News polls

This is a rush transcript from "Special Report with Bret Baier," October 26, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

HILLARY CLINTON, DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: There are only 13 days left in this important election, and I have to tell you, it is so clear how high the stakes are.

DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My theme today is five words: "under budget" and "ahead of schedule." That's what we did. This is what I want to do for our country. And this is what we are working so hard to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BRET BAIER, ANCHOR: Donald Trump at the international hotel, Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., and Hillary Clinton down in Florida. The candidates today, as we mentioned Trump was in Washington, D.C., also in Charlotte, North Carolina and Kinston, North Carolina. His vice presidential nominee, Mike Pence, Reno, Nevada, Salt Lake City, Utah, Colorado Springs. Hillary Clinton in Lake Worth, Florida, Tampa, Florida. Tim Kaine, Newtown, Pennsylvania, Allentown, Pennsylvania. Bill Clinton was in Wilmington, North Carolina, and Chelsea Clinton had three stops in Ohio.

Now, the latest Fox News poll as we showed you at the top of the show has Clinton with a three point lead. That has shifted, in part because of independents. And you take a look at the four-way presidential vote preference on independents, and that is a shift from 38 percent to 41 percent for Donald Trump, 31 percent to 28 percent from our last poll on Hillary Clinton.

Let's bring in our national panel: Brunell Donald-Kyei is the vice chair of diversity outreach for the National Diversity Coalition for Donald Trump -- she joins us from Chicago, in Washington; Mara Liasson, national political correspondent of National Public Radio, and syndicated columnist Charles Krauthammer. Thank you all for being here.

Mara, first to you. Do you see this shifting? Do we see a traditional tightening or do you think this is roughly where it has been?

MARA LIASSON, NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO: I think it's roughly where it has been. There might be some tightening of the polls. But I do think that this race has been remarkably stable with Hillary Clinton having a lead, and sometimes it gets bigger, but Donald Trump has yet to kind of reverse the dynamic of the race and start getting ahead in the battleground states and flipping some of those blue states red.

BAIER: Brunel, I wanted to ask you about another poll question in here, and it deals with minorities, specifically the white and black vote. Hillary Clinton with 82 percent of the black vote in this poll, Donald Trump with only five percent. And you see the breakdown there. From your perspective, what does that tell you and what does it mean? Do you think it's real?

BRUNELL DONALD-KYEI, NATIONAL DIVERSITY COALITION FOR DONALD TRUMP: God bless you and God Bless America first. What I would say is that Donald Trump is the people's candidate. He is the person who is saying jobs, that is he going to give school choice. And those are big issues even in the African-American community.

So I'm going to tell you there's backlash when you say, hey, I'm a Trump supporter and I'm black. So what I suspect is going to happen is on November 8th, black people, who have been quiet and afraid to speak up, are going to speak up louder than ever in that voting booth on November 8th. They're going to vote Trump, and then they may vote for Democrats straight down the ticket. But there are a lot of black people who are contacting me. They are afraid to speak up. But you'll definitely see on November 8th that it is greater than six percent. More like 16 percent to 25 percent black vote.

BAIER: Brunel, on the issues, you think that Donald Trump is well positioned here as the change candidate, and you think, I guess, that these polls, the majority of the polls are not catching that?

DONALD-KYEI: What I would say is yes. I mean, the American people, the hurt, the pain, the suffering, the struggling that's going on on the ground, it's heartbreaking. And I believe that so many Americans, poor and middle class, or veterans, who have felt hopeless in this last eight years are going to walk in to that voting booth on November 8th, and they're going to express that hurt. They're going to express that pain in a mighty way, in a mighty voice in favor of Donald Trump, the change agent.

We know he is not part of the corruption that we are seeing in our government. Each if our media he is not part of the corruption. And so America is going to speak loud and clear. Whites, blacks, Hispanics, Arabs, Chinese, we're going to speak loud and clear that we are tired of the corruption and we're with Donald Trump. We want to drain the swamp that is going on in Washington, D.C.

BAIER: And that's his tagline there.

Charles, you listened to Brunel, you listen to other supporters, and there is this intensity, this enthusiasm. Can you judge how that affects, you know, turnout and the close here over the next than less than two weeks?

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: I think enthusiasm for Trump surely exceeds that on the part of Democrats for Hillary Clinton. But it's not enough because the universe of Republicans, at least it's not enough now, the universe of Trump supporters is simply not large enough to carry a plurality.

I do think it's interesting and important that the rate -- the race has tightened. Mara is right that to some extent we are back where we started the beginning of the year. But if you look at the seminal event of the last month, which was the release of the "Hollywood Access" tapes, the accusations, when the bottom dropped out for just a few days of the Trump campaign, I think the real story is the narrowing as a result of that. That was an occasion where Trump could have just disappeared. He didn't.

He has held his own, and two things have happened. One is that for Hillary there have been these WikiLeaks releases, which have cumulatively, not individually, but cumulatively reinforced the impression of a thoroughly corrupt campaign and the cynicism of depths that we haven't seen. And I think that's been important. And you add Obamacare, which is an extremely important issue that swayed two midterm elections and crushed the Democrats, it's now back as a result of those released numbers.

BAIER: Mara, about that, about Obamacare, about these issues as they are playing out in the final days, and you see $102 million being spent on this Senate race here in New Hampshire, obviously the balance of power is a huge story on Election Day.

LIASSON: Yes, the balance of power is huge. If Hillary Clinton wants to fix Obamacare, which is what she says she wants to do, she has to have a Democratic Congress or at least as much as she can get to help her to do it. Donald Trump says he wants to repeal and replace it, which is the Republican proposal.

I think the WikiLeaks thing, the -- today the stories were about the WikiLeaks leaks were about the emails. The emails is kind of a headache for Hillary Clinton that keeps on throbbing. It just doesn't go away. And you really see a behind the scenes look of how her campaign officials understood what kind of problem it was. They were kind of tearing their hair out why she didn't get this out earlier or have a better explanation. And you see the kind of inner circle around her, her personal aides, really being the kind of secretive, not transparent, all the kinds of things that, you know, have helped her get hugely terrible numbers on honesty and trustworthiness.

BAIER: Yes. Brunel, what's the most important issue for you, number one, and number two, do you think Trump supporters care about how the U.S. Senate breaks down Republican or Democrat, or the House and these House races break down?

DONALD-KYEI: The most important issue to me is economics because the last eight years the economy, the poor people of this nation have suffered. The middle class have suffered. And let me tell you something. The American people don't want to be dealing with a presidential person going into office with all the baggage, with all the investigations that are going to be on top of Hillary Clinton. Our nation needs to heal. We want to heal. We want peace between the races. We want to make sure that our youth, whether they're white, black, Hispanic, have jobs. We want to make sure that the Supreme Court, you know, that the constitution is protected. Those are American issues that has absolutely nothing to do with your race. That's to protect this nation.

And then we want tougher immigration, to make sure that our borders are safe, that we are not fighting illegal aliens and refugees for jobs. Americans are tired of fighting other people for jobs. And so that frustration is real. That hurt is real. And for the polls and different people to try to dismiss that, it's not right. It's not right. We're hurting. America first.

BAIER: Brunel, thank you for your time. The panel a little feistier tonight. I appreciate it, Charles and Mara in Washington, thank you very much. We'll you have back.

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