This is a rush transcript from "Sunday Morning Futures," June 26, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
MARIA BARTIROMO, HOST: Great Britain's exit from the European Union already causing debate in the U.K., but what else will happen is still unknown.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome. I'm Maria Bartiromo.
This is "Sunday Morning Futures."
Some political party leaders in Britain are stepping down. Others are getting votes of no confidence. What does Brexit mean for U.S. diplomacy with the U.K.? I'll talk with the member of the European Parliament coming up.
Plus, the Brexit causing turbulence on global markets. Top economist Mohamed El-Erian in moments in what you can expect here, saving your money this upcoming week.
Plus, Donald Trump saying Brexit draws parallels with his agenda. Back home, questions are being raised about his campaign's lack of funding. A senior Trump adviser is with me this morning as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: Global financial markets plunging after Great Britain's historic vote on Friday to part ways with the European Union. For many, a big reason to celebrate. Some pro-Brexit lawmakers even calling it the U.K.'s Independence Day.
But the results shocking investigators. Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down more than 600 points on Friday, closing at the lows of the day, sparking fears of a worldwide economic slowdown that could last months, that could end up being a global recession.
Just how much will Britain's decision affect us here at home and your own 401k?
Joining me right now is Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz's chief economist, adviser and former PIMCO CEO.
Mohammed, always a pleasure to see you. Thanks so much for joining us.
MOHAMMED EL-ERIAN, ALLIANZ SE CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER: Thank you, Maria.
BARTIROMO: So, a sharp reaction to the Brexit on Friday with markets down across the board. Let me kick it off right there. Do you think the selling continues when markets reopen tomorrow?
EL-ERIAN: There was a chance it does because a lot of people have gotten overconfident with the notion that British voters would not opt for Brexit. So, you have a lot of long accounts that received margin calls that will be forced to sell. Having said that, Maria, there's a lot of cash on the sideline, so expect a lot of volatility and probably more selling in the days ahead.
BARTIROMO: OK. So, we'll probably see more selling then. But are we going to see the back drop get worse, Mohamed? Do you expect we'll see a global recession or a recession now in the Eurozone?
EL-ERIAN: So, on a stand alone basis, think of the following, the most intense developments will be political. You're seeing major turmoil in the United Kingdom, as you correctly stated. Not just to Conservatives, the Labour. Scotland is looking to seek independence again. You're going to see also, a lot of questions in Europe. So, the politics are going to be incredible messy.
Financials are going to get more volatile, which means you put all of that on top of a pretty fragile global economy. Slower growth in Europe, probably a recession in the U.K. We will feel something, but not anything that derails us in a major way.
BARTIROMO: OK, because we are looking at an economy in the U.S. that's sort of bumping along the bottom in some ways. We're not seeing the kind of growth one would wanted to see ten years after the financial collapse. How do you move the needle on growth?
EL-ERIAN: We do four things and we do them comprehensively to unleash all the money that's on the sideline because companies aren't willing to invest and take risks. First, serious investments in engines of growth -- infrastructure, tax reform being to example. Second, more responsive fiscal policy. Third, we have to start dealing with some debt overhangs. And, finally, U.S. leadership on the global stage.
Those four things would unleash a lot of capital that's kindly sitting on the sideline waiting.
BARTIROMO: So, what do you think happens until those things actually materialize because we're looking at those things being long-term structural events that need to take place. We're in a nervous moment, aren't we? What do you tell clients and people who have money on the line right now?
EL-ERIAN: I tell them the good news is the U.S. outperforms. The bad news, it's way below potential. So, we will continue on a 2 percent growth, not enough what we lost already. The balance of risk is to the downside. For financial markets, which have been decoupled by fundamentals from central bank action, there's a lot more downside than upside at this point.
BARTIROMO: You mentioned a moment ago, Mohamed, financials. I wanted to ask you about the investment banks because that really is the group that was leading this major selloff we saw at the end of the week. And I guess part of it has to do with the new regulator framework, right? So, how does the U.K. go about this?
Right now, there are regulations are in place with the U.K. being under the European Union umbrella. But when they actually do move out, as they are intending, what does that look like in terms of this reworking of financial regulations?
EL-ERIAN: You're absolutely right. And the answer is a lot more questions than answers. And there's a reason why European banks got hit so hard. First, you've completely turned upside down institutional linkages so operating models are under pressure. Second, remember, interest rates came down on Friday and the curve flattened, which means it's harder for them to generate income. Thirdly, if Europe slows down, the credit quality of their portfolio becomes more in doubt.
So, for me, it's no surprise European banks were hard hit. And I wouldn't venture there for now. There are better places to put your money because other stocks also overshot but in an excessive manner.
BARTIROMO: Yes, that's a good point.
So, where are there places to hide, if you will? I was reading one stat, and we're trying to get to the bottom of this, that your average 401(k) lost thousands of dollars on Friday alone. What should people be thinking?
I mean, these are long-term people. You know, you're not going to trade your 401(k), obviously, but for those people who recognize they just took a hit, should they just sit tight and continue to be long term, or are there places they should be looking at to revisit and reassess?
EL-ERIAN: So, your starting position matters a great deal. What rick did you have on and what's your tolerance for this risk?
I think investors should realize a couple things, whether in 401(k) or beyond. We've entered a more volatile period. Cash is important to have. Certain names that are very widely held, Facebook, Google are going to trade down a lot, not because they've been fundamentally hit but they'll be sold because people are looking to raise cash.
When you're looking to raise cash because margin costs have come in, you will sell whatever you have.
EL-ERIAN: So, be patient. Look for names with good balance sheets, positive cash flows and good management. They will be attractive over the long term. Over the short term, just realize that we've entered a more volatile period.
BARTIROMO: Yes, I think you make a good point, because when you are under pressure, that you've got to sell something. You're selling where you have liquidity. And all of those companies you just mentioned, that's where the liquidity is. So, you sell wherever you can sell and that puts pressure on the broader market.
EL-ERIAN: Absolutely right. They serve as the ATM, right? They can be sold easily because they're so liquid but the result is they overshoot on the way down. So, for cautious, long-term investors, this is a period of not just volatility but of selective opportunities.
BARTIROMO: OK. And, by the way, just to recap, you don't think the worst has been done. We're in for further selling this week?
EL-ERIAN: I'm afraid so because I think there were too many levered long accounts. They had borrowed to put even more risk. And I think that they're going to have to be selling. So, as much as there is cash on the sideline, which is good, that cash is going to the wait until the levered long finish their forced selling.
BARTIROMO: All right. We'll be watching. Mohammed, always a pleasure to have you. Thanks so much for joining us.
EL-ERIAN: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: We'll see you soon. Mohamed El-Erian there.
More coverage of the financial fallout from Britain's departure from the European Union. Be sure to join me tomorrow morning on "Mornings with Maria" on the Fox Business Network from 6:00 to 9:00 a.m. Eastern. I will see you tomorrow morning for more coverage there.
Donald Trump meanwhile drawing comparisons between Brexit and his own message here in the United States. Just ahead, Trump's senior policy director on what voters in both countries have something in common. We will tell you about that.
You can follow me on Twitter @mariabartiromo @sundayfutures. Let us know what you'd like to hear from Stephen Miller. He's up next.
Stay with us. We're looking ahead right now on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Donald Trump drawing comparisons between U.K.'s Brexit decision and support for his own presidential campaign here in the U.S. Trump suggesting that voters in both countries are skeptical of open borders and praising the Supreme Court's split decision this week that block President Obama's controversial executive action on immigration.
Joining me right now is Stephen Miller. He is senior policy adviser for the Trump campaign.
And, Stephen, it is a pleasure to have you on the program.
STEPHEN MILLER, TRUMP CAMPAIGN SENIOR POLICY ADVISER: Great to be here.
BARTIROMO: Do you think there are similarities between what just went on in the U.K. to what's happening in America?
MILLER: Absolutely. The similarities are quite extraordinary. If you look at the Brexit campaign and the leave campaign, their central issue was for Britain to control its own borders because immigration fundamentally is an issue that affects every aspect of people's lives, and especially for working people. It affects housing, it affects schools, it affects hospitals, it affects wages, it affects neighborhood security. And that was a driving issue, as well as the ability to make trade deals that are good for Britain as well as ability to make decisions at the local rather than the international level.
Those are the same issues that are animating this campaign here in America.
BARTIROMO: And why is that issue so important? Why? Connect the dots for us. I know there is worry and concern over foreigners taking people's jobs but there's also worry about security.
MILLER: Yes, and both. In the case of the security issue, you've obviously seen tragically here in the United States, a number of incidents in recent years in which individuals linked to immigration in one way or another have gone on to commit atrocities inside the United States.
And that is certainly one of the issues driving it here in America, is the issue over security. But it's also a quality of life issue. I think people will be surprised to learn that since 1965, the United States has admitted 59 million immigrants.
That's a level unprecedented, really, I would say, in world history. The effects of that on wages, on incomes, on job security has been profound. And so, you've seen that on a number of trade deals at economic dislocation and social dislocation for many working people.
And that includes many immigrant people, that includes many people who themselves have arrived very recently who are the first people to be affected by newcomers. So, all Americans, regardless of where they come from, will benefit from establishing stronger border control.
BARTIROMO: So, talk to us about Trump's immigration policy. You are integral to that immigration policy and have done a lot of work on immigration as you worked with Senator Jeff Sessions over the years. People are wondering how Trump would balance out controlling borders, ensuring we know who is coming in and out of the country and also not being too nationalistic and perhaps creating trade wars, as well as creating a closed society.
MILLER: Well, the United States is in no danger of becoming a closed society. We're the most open society in the world. We have the most generous immigration policy. We have the world's largest trade deficit. We have the least amount of border control.
In fact, what's actually striking is even though Britain couldn't exercise self-determination because of their membership in the E.U., Britain still had a greater amount of border control than the United States does, which is a really astonishing statement, and it's a profound diamond in our political class.
So, moderating our trade policies and immigration policies to serve the interests of the people living here today, will simply be a move towards the historical position of most civilized countries, which is that if you're making a trade deal, if you're making an immigration deal, you have to first and foremost look out for your own workers.
BARTIROMO: Trump made some comments this weekend while he was in Scotland. Obviously, went there for the golf course and yet it was perfect timing for being there, he ended up giving a press conference on Brexit. Was that planned, by the way, that he said, OK, I want to be here when the Brexit happens?
MILLER: Well, there was certainly an awareness that the timing of the trip would place it right after Brexit, which we thought would be the responsible thing to do, considering that you don't want to come in right before the vote and distract from it.
So, I mean, it was a long-planned trip but there was certainly awareness inside the campaign of where the timing would fall.
BARTIROMO: So, he made comments over the weekend talking about the Muslim ban. Do you want to clarify -- has his tone changed on a Muslim ban should he become president?
MILLER: I think what you're seeing is the policy outline in his speech that he gave after the Orlando shooting. That has been that we are going to focus on suspending migration with countries with a link to terrorism until a better vetting procedure can be put in place. And we've seen not just dozens, not just scores, but hundreds of terror-linked individuals that have ended up in the United States as a result of our immigration policies.
BARTIROMO: OK. So, he's talking about specific countries. That's where the vigilance will be in terms of a Muslim ban.
MILLER: The most effective way to screen out individuals linked to radical Islam is focus on the countries where they know they live.
BARTIROMO: OK. By the way, the past news line was obviously the Supreme Court in a split decision, essentially knocking down the president's immigration reform, which was done by executive action. Your thoughts on that?
MILLER: Well, the fact it's a 4-4 split underscores really what's at stake for America in the November election. That will be eventually or could be relitigated and you could see a new effort to come with a different result, because all that happened was they kicked it back down and upheld the circuit court ruling as a result of that decision.
If you get a fifth justice that Hillary Clinton appoints, they could rule in favor of the president's actions, which would mean that any president now or in the future could unilaterally suspend all immigration rules on a whim, and effectively, you would have no borders in America.
BARTIROMO: Wow. You know what really resonated with me, the fact that President Obama did away with the Pledge of Allegiance to America. Now when immigrants come in, they don't have to pledge, "I pledge my Allegiance to America." They don't have to sign that document.
I was looking at documents from my own great grandparents that when they denounced the king of Italy, I pledged my support to America. Immigrants don't have to do that anymore.
OK. Real quick, there's a poll out today that shows that Donald Trump is way behind Hillary Clinton. There's also been some debate amongst obviously the GOP. What's the strategy for Trump going into the convention, going into these elections to gain an upper hand?
MILLER: Well, you have a couple of things going on.
First of all, you have on the fund-raising side, you have big numbers coming in for the campaign that would allow us to compete in the ad war. Hillary Clinton has spent many, tens upon tens upon tens of millions of dollars in negative advertising.
But most importantly, what the American people care about is the message. You're going to see a big message appealing to people that have been victims of globalization to say, we don't think the big banks, we don't think the multinationals, we don't think the transnationals should be deciding how my life goes, how my family's life goes, how my community goes.
That's the Hillary Clinton agenda of globalization. We're going to focus on real results for working people.
BARTIROMO: And he's going to stick to those issues?
BARTIROMO: All right. Stephen, we're going to be watching.
MILLER: Thanks so much.
BARTIROMO: Thanks so much for joining us.
Stephen Miller joining us this morning.
Shockwaves meanwhile felt around the world as Great Britain votes to leave the European Union. Many now bracing for what comes next.
A member of the European parliament will join me next live as we look ahead on SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES. Back in a moment.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Secretary of State John Kerry headed to Brussels and London tomorrow in the wake of U.K.'s historic vote to exit the European Union. That decision could lead to a major shakeup in Britain's Labour Party as the leader faces growing pressure to step down.
Fox Business Network's Ashley Webster is live this morning in London with the latest.
Ashley, good morning to you.
ASHLEY WEBSTER, FOX BUSINESS NETWORK: And good morning to you, Maria.
Yes, John Kerry in Rome right now meeting with Israeli and Roman officials while there. But, tomorrow, he's taking time out to come back up to Brussels. He'll be meeting with the E.U. foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, and after that, he'll be there to stress that he wants the E.U. to remain together. Fears of a domino effect from the vote by U.K. to get out of the European Union, he's going to be expressing, please, let's stay together.
Then he hops on a plane and comes over to London later on tomorrow and he'll be meeting with British Foreign Minister Philip Hammond. I've got a feeling he'll be saying, look, we still have a special relationship, we're partners and that will never change.
But it's a difficult time for the Obama administration, no doubt. This was an unexpected vote. It has security implications because now, the U.K. is not at the table so to speak when it comes to security in Europe.
But he's turning up in England at a time where there's absolute political chaos going on in the building behind me here in Westminster. Certainly, the conservatives in the wake of this vote. David Cameron says he's going to be out and wants to be replaced by October. Who replaces him?
Boris Johnson, certainly, one of the favorites. But just a bit of a backlash against Boris. Then a meltdown in the Labour Party with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn with intense pressure to quit. He's had a number of senior party members resign today, in fashion, on TV shows here locally. Hilary Benn, he was the shadow foreign secretary, called Corbyn overnight and said, you're looking confidence, you may want to step down, and he did a classic Donald Trump, he said, "You're fired." So, all sorts of turmoil.
What happens from here, we don't know, Maria. But, wow, we're in the front row seat of history here in the U.K., for sure.
BARTIROMO: That's absolutely true. Ashley, thank you. We will see you tomorrow morning on the Fox Business Network.
BARTIROMO: Thank you, Ashley Webster.
The next 90 days could be pivotal as E.U. officials discuss trade deals with Britain in the wake of that Brexit. But there are also growing concerns that the U.K. maybe just the tip of the iceberg. Some leaders wondering whether other countries in the eurozone will also decide to leave the E.U.
We want to bring in right now, Dr. Kay Swinburne. She's a member of the European parliament and she joins us right now.
Kay, it's nice to see you again. Thank you so much for joining us.
DR. KAY SWINBURNE, MEMBER OF EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT: Pleasure, Maria.
BARTIROMO: And I know ahead of this vote you were pushing to stay. That did not end up happening.
What is the most important priority at this point is what I want to get to? First, let me ask you about the story in the news today. I'm reading this from "The Daily Mail," don't rule out a second E.U. referendum, says Tony Blair, as more than 3 million sign petition demanding a rerun.
Is there going to be a rerun vote?
SWINBURNE: Well, I guess the problem here is that the remain campaign, obviously, it was status quo so what knew what we were voting for if we were voting to remain. What's become very clear in the last 24 hours is that although the vote was to leave, nobody actually knows what we were going to be leaving to.
And so, it's very clear now there was no plan by the leave campaigners. So, we now need to actually almost press a pause button to actually work out where we're at but the alternatives is what is best for us outside the E.U. in terms of what type of trade agreements.
When they weren't telling us what they wanted during the campaign, we assumed it was for reasons they had not worked out all the detail. It seems they hadn't made any considerations at all of what they wanted. So, we're not at the table yet for negotiations.
BARTIROMO: President Obama traveled to Britain obviously a few months ago and warned that it's not a good idea for Britain to leave and it's going to put Britain at the end of the line when it comes to doing new deals. I want to run this sound bite and get your reaction to it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: Maybe some point down the line there might be a U.K./U.S. trade agreement but it's not going to happen any time soon because negotiating with a big bloc like the European Union to get a trade agreement done. And the U.K. is going to be in the back of the queue. Us having access to a big market with a lot of countries rather than trying to do piecemeal trade agreements is hugely inefficient.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARTIROMO: Kay, do you agree with that? Do you think Britain will be at the end of the queue in terms of redoing trade deals with the E.U. countries and the U.S.?
SWINBURNE: Well, the U.S. has a habit, from what we've observed, of doing deals in sequence rather than at the same time. If they've got the big deal on the table at the moment, is the E.U. investment partnership and, therefore, by what we've seen in the past, they do one after the other. Yes, there is a line. There is the queue that we have to join.
And so, the European Union would be at the head of that queue before we actually even vaguely start. But in fairness, our biggest market right now is 44 percent of our exports going to our E.U. neighborhood. And so, we need to get that deal sorted before we move on to anything else.
We don't, as I've said previously, don't even have a seat at the moment at the WTO. We have a seat by the E.U., but we don't have a seat for Great Britain there. I'm concerned we have basic fundamental things to organize.
Part of the reasons we haven't invoked Article 50 so far is because we actually know now that the leave side didn't have a plan. And therefore, we need to use this time to get a plan in place.
BARTIROMO: Kay, are you expecting a recession in the E.U.? I know a week and a half ago you were among those questioning Mario Draghi when he testified. How weak are things and do you expect a recession on the horizon?
SWINBURNE: I think the problem being we have weak growth in many countries across the euro zone. In particular, the U.K. was a beacon of hope with very high growth and jobs being created. And so, we're now at that crossroads where the U.K. has put its economy effectively on hold with a real threat of us actually having serious consequences to our economic development.
So, if we're slowing down, our customers are slowing down. Everything is going on hold until we know what's happening. The U.K. is a large economy within the E.U. bloc. And so, when we start to actually have a slowdown, the rest of the E.U. that was relying on us is now going to suffer the same thing.
So, recession may be too far, but I think we're going to have fairly major economic consequences both here in the U.K. and across the rest of the E.U., too. Which is why I think the E.U. might be trying to move along quickly to isolate themselves from some of the repercussions of this U.K. vote. But, of course, the U.K. holds all the cards on that until we invoke Article 50, we're still a member of the E.U., and we continue to be. They have no lever that they can actually make to exit --
BARTIROMO: Yes, that's a really good point. You talked about that single market, that the U.K. needs access to 500 plus million people in the Eurozone. Those are important customers for the U.K.
Kay Swinburne, good to have you on the program. We appreciate your time this morning.
BARTIROMO: We will see you soon. Kay Swinburne from the European parliament today.
Bernie Sanders staying in the Democratic presidential race for now, even though he says he will vote for Hillary Clinton. We will start there with our panel. They're coming up next as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
Back in a moment.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Senator Bernie Sanders saying he will vote for Hillary Clinton. At the same time, the Vermont senator is declining to actually endorse her. Sanders says not formally -- has not formally ended his 2016 campaign, adding that stopping Donald Trump from becoming president must be an overarching goal.
I want to bring our panel on that. Ed Rollins is former White House adviser to President Reagan. He's a chief strategist for a Trump super PAC, and he's a Fox News political.
Jessica Tarlov with us this morning, Democratic pollster and strategist, and senior politicial analyst at Sean Consulting.
And Steve Moore with us, co-author of the new book, "Fueling Freedom", and economic advisor for Donald Trump. he's also a FOX News contributor.
Good to see you, everybody. Thank you so much for being here.
Jessica, what is going on in Bernie Sanders' mind? Tell us what his strategy is, if you have any idea.
JESSICA TARLOV, DEMOCRATIC POLLSTER AND STRATEGIST: I'm really not sure. I've been saying this for a few months now as it became increasingly clear she'd be the nominee, not because the elites love her, but because the American public voted for her. She came out 3.8 million votes ahead of him. And the fact he's demanding a platform that looks exactly like his agenda when he lost is truly stunning to me.
And I would add that when Bernie Sanders says that he's dedicated to defeating Donald Trump, that now means supporting Hillary Clinton. Not just saying I'll vote for her kind of begrudgingly, but actually fueling his supporters to understand that this is what's most important, to get behind the Democratic nominee.
BARTIROMO: I agree. But how is he going to translate his supporters into Hillary Clinton supporters when a lot of them -- I think there was --
STEVE MOORE, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: I don't know if he can do that.
BARTIROMO: This week a majority --
TARLOV: This happened in 2008, we actually had an even larger divide. Fifty percent of Hillary Clinton supporters said they wouldn't back Obama.
MOORE: Let me suggest why I think this situation is different.
MOORE: If you look at Bernie Sanders voters, what do they want? They want change. They want change. They're as upset as a lot of voters on the right.
If you listen to Hillary's speech this week that she gave, it was a resounding endorsement for the status quo. There was no message of -- you couldn't find anything in that speech she couldn't do that was different from Barack Obama. So, I'm not saying that those Bernie Sanders voters will vote for Trump. Some of them will. I think a lot of them will just stay home.
BARTIROMO: I was watching this video this weekend with Susan Sarandon pushing back on a Clinton supporter saying, why would you have Clinton in your corner? She voted for the Iraq war. I mean, there's this really vitriol.
ED ROLLINS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: Susan is a professional agitator and once been a pretty good actress.
At the end of the day here, the hardest part of everybody who's had a campaign like Sanders is stepping back. He goes back to being an obscure senator in the back of the room. Right now, he has secret service protection. He's adored everywhere he goes. That's over.
And I think to a certain extent, after the convention, he's totally irrelevant. He -- I assume he'll go out and be a clear leader for her at the end of the game.
But it won't matter. She's going to move on. She's going to make her own case to his supporters. I would be very surprised if 10 percent or less or more basically supported anyone but a Democrat. They may stay home, but I think at the end of the day, most of those people are going to be Democrats, they're young people, they're going to brought into the ticket.
BARTIROMO: But he's already mattered, Jessica, he's already mattered because he's pushed her more to the left and he's got this enormous platform.
Look at the Democratic Party today. Isn't it much different than it was seven years ago?
TARLOV: Certainly, yes.
BARTIROMO: Before Barack Obama, before Bernie Sanders, before Elizabeth Warren.
TARLOV: Absolutely. And certainly very different from the 1990s, which is where she is normally aligned. We can debate whether she was actually for NAFTA or not. We know, perhaps, wasn't her favorite move, but the party has decidedly shifted to the left, which I don't think is necessarily the greatest thing for the future of the country or the future of the party if we're trying to be --
BARTIROMO: This from a Democratic strategist.
TARLOV: The Democratic strategist and I think a lot of Democrats feel this way, which is why she was overwhelmingly their choice.
ROLLINS: Two candidates in the past who have run on the Bernie Sanders portfolio, the governor who got beat 49-1, and Mondale who got beat 49-1. Bill Clinton brought them back to the center. And if you want to be a significant party, they have to be centrist party.
BARTIROMO: Yes, he sure did.
TARLOV: And when you have socialist countries blowing up all over the world, you have what's going on in Venezuela and he's touting an endorsement from Maduro. I don't understand how this could be a positive.
MOORE: This point about the change in the Democratic Party, I think, it's -- I've been in Washington for 30 years. Ed, you've been involved a little bit longer than I have, but I think this transition -- think about in the '80s. You have, you know, Bill Bradley and Dick Gephardt, that a lot more centrist Democrats when Reagan passes an agenda, Democrats voted for a lot of that. I don't think Bill Clinton, you know, Bill Bradley, Dick Gephardt, they couldn't be Democrats today. It's moved so fared to left.
BARTIROMO: I want to talk about economic plans on both sides of aisle, Hillary's plan and Donald Trump's plan. We'll do that in a moment.
Let's get to "MEDIA BUZZ", though, because Howie Kurtz is standing by with what's coming up in about 20 minutes, top of the hour. Good morning to you, Howie.
HOWARD KURTZ, "MEDIA BUZZ" HOST: Good morning to you, Maria.
Another week of very negative press for Donald Trump over his trip to Scotland, his response to Brexit, his firing his campaign manager, he's raising a meager amount of money. We'll look at whether all not is fair, whether the press fact-checks Hillary Clinton as aggressively as Trump, and also, the very sympathetic coverage of House Democratic sit-in over gun control, even though it didn't produce anything and violated House rules.
That's coming up at the top of the hour.
BARTIROMO: All right. We'll see you in 20 minutes, Howie. Thank you.
We'll take a short break.
Then, can Donald Trump show us the money? Well, he says he can. Predicting that we will see staggering fund-raising figures from his campaign next month. Our panel talking about the money when we come right back and the economy.
We're looking ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures." Stay with us.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Donald Trump entering the general election with the biggest financial disadvantage of any major party nominee in recent history. Just today, his campaign sent out an ambitious fund raising goal of $2 million for the upcoming filing deadline on July 15th. Recent filings also show Hillary Clinton started the month with $42 million in the bank while Donald Trump had just $1.3 million.
The reports also show Trump's team raised $3 million just last month. Our panel back on the money.
And, Ed Rollins, what can you tell us about the fund-raising for the Trump campaign?
ROLLINS: It's been slow, slow for a variety of reasons. One is that Trump didn't want to raise money from big donors or from direct mail even early on, which he could have done. All those supporters, if he had a direct mail program like Carson or something else, he would have had no problems.
The bottom line with Donald Trump is he can go to his ATM and basically match anybody he wants to. You know, he can write up a check, he can write $25 million, $50 million check and get even real quick. He hasn't done that.
MOORE: This election is not going to be decided by money. I mean, both candidates, in my opinion, in the end are going to have plenty more and probably more money than they need.
ROLLINS: There is only one issue, though, is next month, next month Democrats are out there hammering the daylights out of him, the same strategy they had last time with Romney. Take him out before he gets to the convention.
MOORE: We need your super PAC.
ROLLINS: Right now, he needs money. He needs to be up in the air. He can't let her have a month of free air time beating the daylights out of him.
BARTIROMO: Which is what Stephen Miller told us. They need the money to come up with the ads to counter her ads.
ROLLINS: Exactly right.
BARTIROMO: Yes, I'm looking at an e-mail right now. This is from Eric Trump, my father is asking you to contribute $100, $75, $50, $35, contribute another amount. I can promise you, my father loves and cares about America. He understands the idea of American greatness has vanished.
He's using his kids in terms --
ROLLINS: His kids have name. I mean, he can sign it himself. At the end of the day, the critical thing about direct mail, it takes a period of time to develop mail. And you'll hear these big numbers but it's never a question -- I always say to someone says, I raised X amount of money. What's the gross? How much money can you spend? You've raised enormous sums of money as Carson did and others did in the primary, but how much do you have to spend? It's costs a lot to raise --
MOORE: Those things are trivial compared to the two big things. He has to knock his convention speech out of the park and he's going to bet Hillary in the debate. And if he does that, that's my point about money. That's where you're going to have 120 million people watching. Those are the big amounts.
BARTIROMO: But he also has to stick to the issues, right, Steve?
MOORE: Yes, the economy.
BARTIROMO: Will he do that in terms of economy, national security, which really resonates with people?
MOORE: There's no question. I mean, I believe if Donald Trump can just only talk about the economy and terrorism, he will win this election and not get off on tangents about Mexican judges and things like that.
ROLLINS: He has to run a real campaign. It's foolish for them to ever think what they did in the primary, which was successful against 16 other candidates.
This is a very sustained, very effective campaign being run against them. They have the both from both the Obama team and Hillary team. Don't underestimate what they can do. Get ready for it and match it.
BARTIROMO: But at the same time, there's such debate and unease within the Republican Party. This weekend, we learned that George Will says he's decided to leave the Republican Party because of Donald Trump. Reaction?
ROLLINS: Thank you very much. Wish you will.
BARTIROMO: See you later, George Will -- is that what you're saying?
ROLLINS: I still read your column --
MOORE: Hank Paulson wrote a piece, the worst treasury secretary in American history, the guy who gave us bank bailouts. If the Democrats want him, they can have them.
TARLOV: Come on, guys. I mean, it's a little bit of spilled milk. You don't want this to happen. It's not good. There was a letter last week from top business executives and from the right and left, you know, you have your Warren Buffetts, but you also have people who worked in Reagan and Bush administrations who run AT&T and General Motors saying they're backing Hillary Clinton because there will be dark day as head under a Trump presidency. It's serious.
BARTIROMO: This letter is real.
BARTIROMO: How important and how damaging was that letter?
MOORE: Which letter are you talking about?
BARTIROMO: From the business executives --
MOORE: I think it did some damage but, look, this is a real ling election if Trump wins. If he wins, he'll win with millions and millions of working class Democrats. But, you're right, he's going to lose the kind of hoity-toity Republicans.
BARTIROMO: And elites.
MOORE: And elites, yes.
BARTIROMO: We'll take a short break.
Brand new polls -- I'm sorry, Ed?
ROLLINS: This is a plus.
BARTIROMO: Brand-new polls out this morning on the presidential race. What they are saying as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures." Our panel comes back next.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Brand new polls this morning show Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump. Let's keep in mind they were taken before the Brexit vote.
But here is the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: 46 percent of voters are backing Clinton, 41 percent are supporting Clinton. Then there's this from "The Washington Post", where she is now at 51 percent versus Trump's 39 percent.
I'm back with the panel right now.
Ed Rollins, your reaction to these stunning polls.
ROLLINS: Well, I can see Trump is behind in the polls and probably will be behind for a period of time here. He's got to run a real campaign and catch up here.
It doesn't matter. At the end of the day it will be a knockdown, drag out close election. The vast majority of Republicans will vote for him and the vast majority of Democrats will vote for her. It's the same old story, where are the independents going to go? Whoever won the plurality of independents are going to win this.
So, polls today are indications of a sign of what's happening right today, but "The Washington Post" poll, if she had those kind of numbers for real, that's what Reagan had over Mondale for a year before the end of the campaign. She's not in that kind of condition.
MOORE: I don't believe The Washington Post poll.
BARTIROMO: You don't believe it?
MOORE: I actually think the other one --
BARTIROMO: The NBC/"Wall Street Journal"?
MOORE: Five percent or 6 percent gap.
MOORE: I think that's probably where this is.
MOORE: Trump had a terrible two or three or four weeks preceding this week.
BARTIROMO: Judge, the Mexican-American judge --
MOORE: Right. This week, I think he staged a pretty nice comeback. I mean, first of all, the whole Brexit issue I think plays into the hand of Trump's kind of let's take our country back.
The other thing is remember this week both candidates gave major speeches, you know. Hillary hit Trump pretty hard in her speech, but Donald Trump is a counter-puncher and he hit her back even harder.
BARTIROMO: Yes. What are your thoughts?
TARLOV: I think so. I agree with the ABC/Washington Post poll.
BARTIROMO: You don't believe it?
TARLOV: I believe some of it.
BARTIROMO: It wasn't taken after Brexit.
TARLOV: No, it wasn't taken after Brexit. I happen to not think the Brexit vote is as important to our election, as many people are making it out to be. This is a very different condition.
With what's going on in the U.K., they're talking about another layer of government. They're talking about another layer of government, they're talking about Brussels.
TARLOV: It's not one step removed, it's two steps removed. I think that's important. I think she's up six to eight points, not the five to six, but yes, more along The Wall Street Journal --
BARTIROMO: Here is what does matter in this election, actual policy. I want to talk about actual policy in terms of Hillary Clinton's economic plan, Donald Trump's economic plan. Who is going to move the needle on economic growth and job creation? What's most important about these plans?
ROLLINS: I think Trump gets the most credit because he's obviously been in business and he's viewed as the economy in every poll that you see. That's going to be his strength. His strengths are going to be about leadership. Who can lead this country with a new economy?
If he articulates a good plan, which I think is coming, and talks about who can stand up to terrorism, then I think he's home free.
MOORE: I just go back to the point I made at the outset. This is a changed election. I mean, we saw -- the reason I think Brexit is relevant is because people want a change in Britain and I think people all over the world --
TARLOV: I'm not saying it's not relevant. I just heard a lot of Republicans act like a be all, end all, and it's not.
MOORE: No, I agree. But my point is this, that if you listen to Hillary's speech, she spent 45 minutes attacking Trump and maybe three minutes talking about her own policies. And what were those raise the minimum wage, tax the rich and more infrastructure spending. Doesn't that sound familiar? That's exactly what Barack Obama has done.
How does she win when people want change when she's an enormous advocate for what we've been doing?
BARTIROMO: Is that accurate? Do you agree with that? These are her major themes in terms of her economic plan?
TARLOV: Absolutely. That is a Democratic economic plan. I would add in R&D investment, investment in education. These things are important.
BARTIROMO: Where does the money come from?
TARLOV: Raises taxes but she only raises taxes four percent to five percent on those earning $5 million and above. Donald Trump --
MOORE: But Trump wants to cut them.
MOORE: He wants to cut -- that's easy --
BARTIROMO: Raising taxes on small business. You're capturing small business.
TARLOV: But you're not raising them certainly on the middle class which is what she's focusing on. Barack Obama and his job creation has not been as high as it should be and I know that growth is slow. But when you look at her plan, it mirrors closely what her husband did when you got 22 million new jobs and 4 percent GDP --
BARTIROMO: Not raising taxes that much.
BARTIROMO: She got the Buffett Rule.
TARLOV: She does have the Buffett Rule, and she's speaking to a Sanders' crowd and we'll have to see how it turns out. But Donald Trump --
MOORE: Trump's plan, I'll tell you us what I have been working on it. We will have the biggest tax cuts since Reagan. We're going to cut the corporate tax which as you know is the highest in the world to virtually the lowest. It's going to be a big tax cut for businesses.
BARTIROMO: Well, you're going to cut the corporate tax from what, 25 percent to 15 percent? Fifteen percent.
MOORE: Fifteen percent is the business tax, exactly. That's a big deal. You're going to get a lot of business --
TARLOV: When it's an election about income inequality on both sides and Donald Trump is cutting from 39 percent to 25 percent.
ROLLINS: I disagree. It's not about income. It may be on your side. This country wants leadership. It wants someone with a new immigration policy.
It wants someone -- anybody that's talking about taxes is going to lose in this campaign, I promise you. Whether it's $5 million or what have you.
People think they're taxed too much today. Trump gets credit for being the guy with an economic plan. He has a plan out here.
If you want the same that you've had for the last eight years, good, vote for her. If you want can go different from Obama, vote for him. He's the change agent.
BARTIROMO: And the idea is by moving the needle, you take care of income inequality, because you lift many boats.
TARLOV: What about the protectionist trade policies? I'm curious, because there are a lot of Republicans out there who are for free trade.
MOORE: We'll renegotiate some of the deals.
TARLOV: She's not saying that. He's saying that he wants to add 40 plus tariff --
BARTIROMO: He walked back from, he walked back from that.
BARTIROMO: One thing to watch in the week ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures" from our all-star panel. Back in a minute.
BARTIROMO: Thanks for being with us.
Everybody on the panel agrees one of the most important things to look forward is what happens in markets this upcoming week. We'll tell you on "Mornings with Maria" tomorrow. Thank you so much, Ed Rollins, Jessica Tarlov, Steve Moore. We'll see you soon.
Thanks for being with us. I'll see you on "Mornings with Maria" tomorrow, Fox Business Network.
Have a good Sunday.
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