This is a rush transcript from "Sunday Morning Futures," May 22, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
MARIA BARTIROMO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. I'm Maria Bartiromo. Welcome to "Sunday Morning Futures."
The race for the White House shaping up as a nail-biter. Brand new polls out this morning show Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are neck and neck. What numberings are saying about the electorate right now and the challenges both candidates are facing.
Plus, will interest rates go up? Where are the jobs? All eyes on the Federal Reserve as we await their decision. How would this affect the country's economy and your bottom line? We're speaking with the president of the San Francisco Fed live.
Plus, what a mess. Long lines at TSA security checkpoints across the country with the summer travel season fast approaching. Will this get fixed?
We're looking ahead right now on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: The general election looking like it could be a nail-biter. Donald Trump becoming the presumptive Republican nominee earlier this month, allowing him to consolidate support and set his sights exclusively on November.
Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is still battling Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, even as she looks ahead to the general election. A new poll this morning shows she may have her hands full with Donald Trump. It finds that the two candidates are in a statistical dead heat among registered voters, with Trump favored by 46 percent and Clinton favored by 44 percent.
Newt Gingrich is the former speaker of the House and a Fox News contributor. He joins us right now.
Mr. Speaker, always great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us.
NEWT GINGRICH, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Good to be with you.
BARTIROMO: I'll tell you, look at the Democratic side of the race and it's getting even more interesting. And close than the Republicans were over the last few months. What do you make of these new polls?
GINGRICH: Well, first of all, I don't think they signal a really close race by November. I think if you look at the trend line, they signal that Trump will probably consolidate and Hillary will probably continue to stag nature and the odds are pretty good Trump will win, like 1980, by a surprisingly big number.
This country's had a long, long time to get to know Hillary Clinton. She cannot build a base that works. People don't believe her. That's actually getting worse, not better. Of course, she has a real civil war.
Everybody said Republicans were going to have a problem. Well, Bernie Sanders just endorsed the primary opponent of the Democratic National Committee chair. Sanders is committed to going all the way to the convention in a really bitter fight.
So, I think the Democrats will be shambles by the end of the summer. I think younger reform-oriented Democrats either won't vote or they'll vote for Trump and that poses a huge problem for Hillary.
BARTIROMO: You know, there were some pretty good op-eds this weekend. And Peggy Noonan's op-ed in The Journal this week basically says, look, the ticket is Hillary Clinton/Bernie Sanders. Could you ever see that ticket?
GINGRICH: Well, you could, but I don't know what that would get you. I mean, it would be left and even lefter. Bernie in the end, what's he going to say, I didn't mean all these nasty things I said about how corrupt she is and dishonest she is and how competent she is?
GINGRICH: I mean, he could. Politics has produced a lot of things. Jack Kennedy picking Lyndon Johnson in 1960 in a way that could be an example.
My hunch is that she's looking for a Latino. She's looking for the next generation, a younger person.
But she's in a real problem because Sanders turns out to be serious about his values. And I think he's getting angrier and angrier and he has nothing to lose. I mean, you know, and again, I think the fact he just went into a congressional district in Florida to endorse the opponent of the Democratic National Committee chair, he's playing for keeps. He's not playing for second place.
BARTIROMO: Isn't it extraordinary we know the number one issue for voters is economy and yet Hillary Clinton is talking about everything but that. Even last week when she basically said, look, I'm going to put my husband in charge of the economy because he knows how to do that was such a -- was such a window into the fact that she really does not know what to do. If we go back to the '90s and we remember you, Newt Gingrich, and your Contract with America and we know what that led to, including a balanced budget, including huge job creation, she's basically admitting, I have no idea but bill did it, and he led it, and he'll do it again, even though she's all the way to the left and she has already told us what she wants to do.
GINGRICH: Yes, that's a problem if you're a liberal. I mean, you can be a liberal in a really, really hot economy because there's enough wealth, there's enough income, there are enough jobs. But if you get a weak economy and you look at what liberals stand for, the president's efforts to make work more expensive, the fact that their tax policy keeps money outside the United States, the facts their trade policy allows jobs to be exported, their belief in big bureaucracy, even if it kills small business, you look at all those things together, there's not much she can say in detail about the economy.
And, frankly, when you have someone like Donald Trump who has made billions of dollars because he understands business, getting in a brawl with him on the economy would be hopeless. I don't quite get what she's saying about Bill. If she's going to put him in charge of the biggest issue, does this mean she's going to go to funerals and play the role of the vice president? I thought that was one of those weird moments she had a throwaway line she couldn't resist.
BARTIROMO: I think so, too, because I think she was trying so hard to keep attached to him when it comes to leadership on the economy, even though she's talking about raising $1.1 trillion in new taxes, she's talking about building on Obamacare, which is one of the key reasons businesses are not hiring, and she's talking about reigning in business and raising taxes, talked about the Buffett Rule.
But she's slamming Trump's foreign policy in a new ad, Newt. What do you think that will do in terms of confidence in his foreign policy?
GINGRICH: I think all Trump has to do is say, she wanted to get rid of Gadhafi, look at the mess Libya has, she wanted to reset the Russian policy, they took Crimea, they took the eastern part of Ukraine, they're now in Syria. That was a disaster.
Her policies have consistently failed. This is one of her real challenges. She can't go back and tell you it was a great success because it wasn't. You could say, yes, she has a lot of experience but it's experience of losing.
I mean, it would be like taking the last coach for the Atlanta Braves who got fired and say, at least he's got experience of leading a losing team. Her policies have failed. And I think Trump -- I saw, I listened to him rather on telephone this morning on "Fox & Friends," I think Trump is very prepared to debate whose better on foreign policy.
BARTIROMO: Well, I'll tell you this one, in terms of the economy, that 15 percent tax rate he's talk willing about, you have to believe that's going to create a boom for the stock market and, perhaps, move the needle on economic growth, 15 percent corporate tax rate, Newt. I know there are questions about how he pays for it, but he says once he moves the needle on economic growth, that partly pays for it.
GINGRICH: Well, it clearly does. That's what happened with Reagan, and the truth is -- and that's what happened with us when we cut capital gains tax that led to a boom in the mid-1990s, by the way, against most Democrats. But the other part of this is, if he gets down to 15 percent, you've got about $2 trillion locked up overseas that's going to come rushing home to be invested. That's an enormous boon for the American economy.
And Trump was going to be as tough on regulation as he is on taxes and regulations kills more small businesses today than taxes do.
So, I think you'd have a very small business renaissance under a Donald Trump presidency.
BARTIROMO: Yes. And now we see that the Republicans are coalescing around him, as a result partly because of that. Real quick on the V.P. search. He's got a meeting with Bob Corker as this decision is looming. Who do you think is on the short list, Newt? I know we've spoken about you as well.
GINGRICH: No, look, I think, first of all, Bob Corker would be terrific as-- he certainly knows foreign policy as chairman of the International Relations Committee. He came out and praised Trump's speech on foreign policy.
He's a very good former mayor, very successful businessman. He'd bring a lot to the ticket. I think they should look at Tim Scott, the senator from South Carolina, who is very, very popular, very widely liked in the Senate has a real possibility. I think the governor of Oklahoma, Mary Fallin would be, again, be a possibility.
Trump has got a lot of people to look to. The truth is he is going to win the election. He needs to look at who will help him govern because the vice president won't be key to wing the elections, Donald Trump is. But I think he's looking widely. I really think he ought to be careful and go slow because this is his first really big decision now that he's a nominee.
BARTIROMO: Yes, for sure. Newt, always a pleasure to speak with you.
GINGRICH: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: Newt Gingrich is the former speaker of the house and author of the new book, pick it up, "Rediscovering God in America" by Newt Gingrich.
Hillary Clinton is slamming Donald Trump's foreign policy experience in that new ad.
Plus, long lines and hot temperatures at airports across the country. Will the situation get any better or worse?
Follow me on Twitter @MariaBartiromo @sundayfutures.
Stay with us. We're looking ahead right now on "Sunday Morning Futures." Back in a moment.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Hillary Clinton is hitting back after Donald Trump questions her qualifications to be president. In a new ad, Clinton goes after Trump on foreign policy, comparing her experience to his. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, POLITICAL AD)
HILLARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The entire international community must prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Saudi Arabia nuclear weapons?
DONALD TRUMP, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Saudi Arabia, absolutely.
CLINTON: United States welcomes the agreement today for cease-fire in Gaza.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The difference between Hezbollah and Hamas does not matter to you yet, but it will?
TRUMP: It will when it's appropriate.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARTIROMO: Dr. Walid Phares is with us, Fox News Middle East and terrorism analyst and foreign policy adviser to Donald Trump's campaign.
Sir, good to see you. Thanks so much for joining us.
DR. WALID PHARES, FOX NEWS MIDDLE EAST & TERRORISM ANALYST: Good morning, Maria. Thank you.
BARTIROMO: So, what did you think of that ad?
PHARES: Well, that ad is fantastic. It's going to open the path for Mr. Trump to respond and his campaign asking questions about what happened to that reset button in Russia. Crimea was invaded. Eastern Ukraine is no longer under the sovereignty of the central authorities. What has happened in Syria, in Libya, in Egypt and Iraq. If you have the whole hour, I'll be here to name all these countries and crisis.
What will be there response at this point in time?
BARTIROMO: So, you're saying, sure, she has experience, but she's got a long list of visits and meetings and activities in terms of foreign policy that were failures.
PHARES: If the list is what counts, then Senator McCain would have won over Senator Obama in 2008, right? And/or President Clinton was the one who won in 1992 over somebody who was eight years in the White House, President Bush 41, and before that who was the director of CIA.
It's not just the list. What you have done with that time and what are the files talking about today?
BARTIROMO: How will that resonate for people? What do you think Donald Trump needs to do to make the case that he, in fact, would be better on foreign policy?
PHARES: Well, number one, obviously, he is moving from the primaries very quickly. Quicker than what we saw to the national election. Of course, there will be statement, there will be speeches. He had a speech.
In that speech, he had many points to be clear, with regard, for example, the Arab Muslim world, reaching out deep at the time that the Arab Spring has collapsed under the watch of two terms of the Obama administration. And, of course, with time, there will be debates. I'm looking guard to those debates over the summer.
BARTIROMO: What about the temporary ban on Muslims? What about his commentary on Mexicans? Is this going to hurt with those groups going into the general election?
PHARES: Well, look, when we talk about an interim ban on Muslims or any community, that is a suggestion and told the administration, and the bureaucracy would find an answer to the jihadi penetration, on the one hand. And we talk about quarter of a million of mostly Muslims who died in Syria, and those who are refugees in Sinjar Mountain or Darfur situation -- when we make that comparison, believe me, most Arab Muslims say, we understand the United States needs to defend itself, but we need a foreign policy that takes care of us here at home where we are.
BARTIROMO: So, you think it will resonate with Americans of all stripes because his words are fighting for Americans?
PHARES: Look, Americans today are not like 25 years ago, 30 years ago. They have social media. If you see what the debate happening there, how people are reacting with people, multiple communities, they are very smart. People are smart. They understand.
They look at the results of foreign policies, for example in Egypt, partnering with Muslim brotherhood was not a good idea. The Iran deal that is now being taken as an important piece of an achievement is a disaster.
The Iranian people were abandoned in 2009. The Gulf is not very happy with our foreign policy.
If we go over that list after achievements, I think Mr. Trump will have an edge.
BARTIROMO: Yes, it's really interesting, because certainly the Iran deal was pretty much most Americans were against it. And here we have, a deal that most people are saying needs to be either restructured or done away with.
Let me ask you about the international reaction, the communities away from the United States. Who wins on that?
PHARES: Well, of course, those who are supportive of the Clinton/Obama, Obama/Clinton foreign policy are going to be supporting and we see it in their media worldwide. And, of course, the left movement in Europe that's supportive of it.
But everybody else -- I mean, ask the Russians, the majority of Russians, or people in the Balkans or ask a majority of Egyptians, the largest Arab Muslim Sunni country, or in any other parts of them, what they think? If you translate only what had been said about Mrs. Clinton in Egypt, from Arabic to English, just translate that and you have your answer.
BARTIROMO: And I guess we haven't really heard Donald Trump talk about that reset in Russia. Is he going to be using this on the campaign trail given that she's now pushing her experience as one of the reasons that she believes she'll win?
PHARES: Well, let's remember that Mr. Trump is finishing the primary. He finished the primaries and getting ready for the national election for the convention on the one hand.
On the other hand, you have a secretary of state, of course, with all her travels and meetings, but then when the debate will begin, it has to be about the subjects. Not about if I had tea with the queen of England or not. It has to be, what did we do in Syria and the future?
PHARES: Not 20 years ago.
BARTIROMO: And you think he's ready for that?
PHARES: I think he's very ready for that. Actually, just by naming all these crisis and proposing, then you're going to see a major difference between the achievements of the past and plans for the future.
BARTIROMO: Walid, good to see you on the program this morning. Thanks so much.
PHARES: Thank you for having me.
BARTIROMO: Walid Phares joining us there.
So, where are the jobs? We're taking a look at jobs in America next, as we watch the Federal Reserve and their decision on whether or not to raise the interest rates. How would that affect the economy? The president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve is with me, John Williams, next, live.
We're looking ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures" right now.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Jobs and the economy, economic growth number one issue for voters today, certainly, and whether or not we will see interest rates go up as a result of strength that we have been seeing in the economy recently.
We're joined right now by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, John Williams, to talk more about that, and an upcoming meeting that the Fed is having in June.
John, good to see you. Thank you so much for joining us.
JOHN WILLIAMS, PRESIDENT, FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF SAN FRANCISCO: Great to be here.
BARTIROMO: So, the June meeting is upon us from the Federal Reserve and a lot of people are saying, look, the economy has done better. Maybe we'll see rates go higher.
How do you characterize things right now?
WILLIAMS: I do think the economy has done better. We're still adding jobs at over a pace that we got more than 2 million jobs this year, unemployment is under 5 percent, inflation is firming up.
So, I think the economy overall is looking good. And I think we will, in my view, be appropriate to start raising rates again later this year, whether it's June or later meeting, will depend on the data. We still got another month to go. We'll be watching that data carefully and see what it tell us.
BARTIROMO: But if you had the data right now, would you and I know you're not voting this year, but would you encourage your colleagues to raise rates in June?
WILLIAMS: Well, I think it's a balancing act. I think the economic data itself are quite encouraging, I would argue for a rate increase.
However, we have to take into account the uncertainties, especially around Europe, around Asia, around our own economy. So, you have to balance those two sides of the coin. And that's what we'll be doing when we meet in June.
BARTIROMO: You have a big primary in California coming up, June 6th. In San Francisco, you're seeing things largely from, perhaps, a different window that we are in the northeast because you have a big boom in technology.
Is that part of your sort of vision that things are booming?
WILLIAMS: Well, you know, as -- I got nine western states in my district so it's not just the Bay Area, which is booming and doing really well. But it does represent a mix of what's happening in the economy. We see unemployment down to 4 percent or below. Other areas are struggling. But, overall, things are looking good in my part of the world.
BARTIROMO: What are you seeing in your part of the world? Is it technology, health care, where?
WILLIAMS: Sure. You're seeing -- exactly. So --
BARTIROMO: Where are the jobs?
WILLIAMS: Where you expect them, like you said, both in technology, but also, I would say health care and services more broadly. I mean, the strong dollar has weakened export industry so we're seeing most John job gains really in the service sector, including those you just mentioned.
BARTIROMO: Do you think when people go to the polls on June 6th, that's going to be top of mind, this is going to be the subject that drives their vote?
WILLIAMS: Well, I can't speak to what voters will be thinking, but my perspective of the Fed, we're basically kind of getting closer and closer to the mission of getting full employment and get inflation back to 1 percent. I think a lot of these longer run issues that voters are concerned about, longer term issues about growth. Those are things that are outside the Fed's ability to control them.
BARTIROMO: Let me ask you about that, because the reason we have such an unconventional election this year is because people are so angry, their wages haven't moved, costs for health care have gone up. It's tougher for them to get a mortgage and get the lending that they need. To what do you attribute that stall in wages?
WILLIAMS: Well, I think this is a longer run phenomenon. We've seen this go on for decades. I think it represents changes in technology, with changes in demand with different types of labor. My answer is that we need to invest more in the economy for long run, invest in our people, human capital, but also in terms of businesses and R&D. I do think these are longer run issues. I do think as economists, we know long-run investments and human and physical capital are things that will ignite faster growth.
BARTIROMO: A lot of people are debating whether or not we'll see a recession in 2017. Do you expect a recession in 2017?
WILLIAMS: No, I don't. First of all, economists are not good at forecasting recessions a year off in the future. I see the fundamentals as very solid. I see growth as being good. The Fed, we're going to try to get this smooth landing, bring the plane exactly onto the runway as best we can. So, I expect growth will be 2 percent. I think risks of recession are pretty modest.
BARTIROMO: All right. So, you do not -- because a lot of people are saying whoever that the next president, whoever it is, is going to oversee a recession.
WILLIAMS: Well, again, you know, recession -- expansions don't die of old age. They happen because some kind of unforeseen event happens. We've had very long expansions in our last few decades. I don't see any reason to expect a recession.
BARTIROMO: You said at some point you think it's appropriate rates go higher. But will the Fed be looking at the calendar saying, look, the election is in November. We don't to want get political so we're going to stay away from that in September.
WILLIAMS: No, we've proven over and over again we can act in presidential election years, taking controversial policy decisions. We've done that before. We'll do it again. We're about as apolitical as you can imagine, just focus in our goal.
BARTIROMO: So, in other words, nothing is off the table. You could see rates going higher in September, right before the election?
BARTIROMO: Or October?
WILLIAMS: It will be based on the data, based on our analysis. I mean, we're really focused on the economy, what the data is telling us and how best to achieve our goal.
BARTIROMO: Now, some people believe this was all about the Fed, monetary policy staying where it was and being stimulative in terms of rock bottom interest rates.
What would you like to see on the fiscal side? What would you like to see away from monetary policy that is out of your hands coming from government in terms of some other economic stimulus?
WILLIAMS: Well, I think in terms of the long run, we obviously have unsustainable fiscal position at the federal level. That's not controversial. I think every expert agrees on that, and I think that's something that needs to be tackled in upcoming years.
The other thing I'm worried about is that I would like to see us thinking ahead to the time when we have the next recession and having fiscal policy be more of a partner to bring the economy back when we have a recession, a partner of monetary policy. This time the fiscal policy has gone back and forth between stimulus and contraction and that's made it harder for to us do our job.
So, I think we should be head to the next recession and how can we strengthen the ability of fiscal policy to help the economy.
BARTIROMO: So, it sounds think you would like to work on the entitlements because you said long-term fiscal preparation and, number two, I think I hear you saying you'd like to see something on tax reform and regulation.
WILLIAMS: Well, basically, having fiscal policy will support long-run growth and how can fiscal policy when we're in a recession help the economy get back on track.
BARTIROMO: So, what's one policy that fits the bill that you're talking about?
WILLIAMS: On the latter, sure. One thing is to strengthen what are often called the automatic stabilizers so that automatically when the economy weakens, you people get unemployment insurance, taxes go down and strengthen those kind of processes that basically boost the economy when it's weak and help us get out of a recession.
You know, there's a lot of proposals of how we could strengthen those in terms of -- instead of having these things happen automatically, instead of having them happen because Congress makes a specific decision to stimulate the economy or not during a recession.
BARTIROMO: All right. We will leave it there.
John, great to speak with you. Thanks so much.
WILLIAMS: Great to be here.
BARTIROMO: John Williams is president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve. Up next, growing frustration over marathon wait times at TSA security lines. What if anything can be done to fix the mess? That's a question for our next guest.
We're looking ahead this morning on "Sunday Morning Futures."
Back in a moment.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
The search for the black box is under way in the deadly EgyptAir plane crash that killed 66 people. The doomed Paris-to-to Cairo flight raising security concerns as airports across the country and the globe, as investigators work to find out the crash, including any potential ties to terrorism.
It comes as the TSA is facing growing criticism for long lines at the airports here at home. The agency now caught between its need to effectively screen passengers, while also getting passengers through checkpoints in a timely matter.
Joining us right now is New York Congressman Lee Zeldin, a member of the House Transportation Committee and the vice chair of the subcommittee on aviation.
Congressman, good to see you.
LEE ZELDIN, R-NEW YORK CONGRESSMAN: It's good to be with you.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for joining us.
First, we heard from EgyptAir and EgyptAir basically said, looked like based on what we can see from the black box and other -- our investigation, that an explosion tore through the plane, which would indicate terrorism. And now, we hear from them that they're saying, oh, we didn't find the black boxes. Is EgyptAir and officials in Egypt lying? They're not being transparent.
ZELDIN: We have not -- I've not received any confirmation they've actually found the black boxes. It's possible that they do have them. And the fact is, there is a track record with EgyptAir where they do hire employees that have a certain ideology and political affiliations and leanings where employees have been fired for connections to Muslim Brotherhood, for writing words on this plane, "we will take this plane down."
BARTIROMO: Exactly. There was graffiti on this plane that said, "we will bring this plane down."
ZELDIN: Right. So, there is -- there is weaknesses, there are flaws with the security, specifically at Charles de Gaulle airport. They need to tighten their act up a little bit. You do have a plane heading towards the Middle East with passengers from the Middle East.
So, there's -- we're talking about Egypt here. There's a lot of indications that this might be terrorism added up, and EgyptAir, if they have the black boxes and they're not admitting to it, that's not something that's going to -- I mean, at some point, it's going to catch up to them pretty badly.
BARTIROMO: We have to wait for any transparency because we're not getting it. So, we're covering that and waiting.
Let me bring you back home to the U.S. and what's going on with the TSA right now. What's behind all of these security issues?
ZELDIN: A management failure, a resource allocation issue, a deficiency of common sense. TSA needs to get away from law enforcement duties and just focus on screening. They need to work with airlines, airport managers to predict when peak times are going to be. If you have eight lines and only using four, open up another line. Plan ahead for when it's supposed to happen.
BARTIROMO: People are waiting two and three hours. Then there's the bags. That's another issue. All the airlines are raising prices and saying, look, we're going to charge you for more bags. That's had implications.
ZELDIN: Airlines with these hidden baggage fees leads to customers deciding just to bring more baggage through. TSA is stopping the 80-year- old granny in a wheelchair or the military service member, this happened to me, I'm still in the reserves. In uniform, with military ID, military orders, and they want to take my toothpaste.
BARTIROMO: Come on.
ZELDIN: When I was going to Iraq, I had -- I was with infantry battalion, our plane was filled with rifles and machine guns. When we went out of Baltimore Airport on our way back in, they were taking our knives and Gerbers. It's like, listen, our plane is full of machine guns right now.
BARTIROMO: Absolutely, yes.
ZELDIN: So, maybe someone at this TSA checkpoint should be delegated with common sense. As far as the funding goes, TSA last year asked for $7.3 billion. Congress gave them over a million more than they asked for.
BARTIROMO: Right, $7.4 billion.
ZELDIN: That's right, $7.4 billion.
BARTIROMO: So, is this money being allocated in the wrong way? Should the TSA be privatized?
ZELDIN: Well, if TSA was privatized, then what we would see as a benefit -- and TSA really needs to get their act together or they will face this threat more, what we see an official getting $90,000 bonus while 95 percent of these fake bombs and explosives went through security checkpoints undetected. When it's -- when you have private entities with accountability responsible for these tasks, you don't give them a bonus. You get fired.
So, that's the trend of where this is going if TSA doesn't get their act together.
BARTIROMO: This is common sense.
ZELDIN: Common sense, it would get TSA a lot further than where they've been and working with local enforcement, too.
BARTIROMO: Congressman, thank you.
ZELDIN: Thank you, Maria.
BARTIROMO: Thanks so much for joining us.
Representative Lee Zeldin here in the studio with us.
Let's get a look at what's coming up "MediaBuzz," top of the hour, Howie Kurtz right now -- Howie.
HOWARD KURTZ, MEDIA BUZZ: Good morning, Maria.
We have an all-star lineup. Bob Woodward on The Washington Post's 20- person investigation of Donald Trump. What about Hillary Clinton?
Brit Hume on coverage of the never Trump crowd. Tucker Carlson on his meeting with Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg.
Also, Trump versus The New York Times, Trump versus Megyn Kelly, the Democratic Party disarray, and all that and a tribute to Morley Safer coming up on "MediaBuzz."
All right. We'll see you then, Howie, top of hour, in about 20 minutes.
A Fox News poll shows both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have work to do when it comes to gaining the trust of voters. We'll break down the numbers with our all-star panel next.
We're looking ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures." Back in a moment.
BARTIROMO: We want to show you these live pictures. President Obama arriving in Hanoi earlier this morning -- getting live pictures right now -- officially kicking off his three-day visit to Vietnam.
After that, President Obama will fly to Japan for the G-7 summit. While there, he'll become the first sitting U.S. president to visit Hiroshima. He will meet with survivors of the atomic bombings that ended World War II. The president just landing this morning in Hanoi.
The presidential race shaping up to be contentious one certainly, in a negative fight, as more voters express unfavorable opinions of both front- runners. A FOX News poll asks voters whether they consider Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump to be honest and trustworthy.
Look at these numbers, 40 percent of voters say Trump is honest. Just 31 percent feel same way about Hillary Clinton.
I want to bring in our panel, Ed Rollins, former principal White House advisor to President Reagan. He's a Fox News political analyst and a manager of a super PAC supporting Donald Trump. Julie Roginsky, the former political adviser to Senator Frank Lautenberg and also a Fox News contributor. And Tony Sayegh is Republican political strategists, the executive vice president of Jamestown Associates and a Fox News contributor.
Good to see, everybody. Thanks so much for joining us.
TONY SAYEGH, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Good morning, Maria.
ED ROLLINS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST: Good morning.
BARTIROMO: Interesting these polls on trustworthiness and honesty, Ed Rollins.
ROLLINS: Well, Trump has increased his approval ratings dramatically over the last month. She still has two thirds of the public don't think she's honest. And she's struggling there to get there. He's kind of solidified his base.
The difference is, she's got a strong campaign structure in place, all the money she needs to run in the fall, but she's still a lagging candidate. Trump is basically a good candidate, doesn't have the candidate in the apparatus. He's putting out in place. The party is now coalescing around him. I think there's plenty of room for improvement. Both of them are dead even in every poll that's out there today. So, it's going to be a dog fight.
BARTIROMO: And even with these numbers, Julie, Trump beats her. In this poll, he beats her.
JULIE ROGINSKY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: In this poll he does. In other polls, he doesn't. The problem for Donald Trump I think consistently is he's solidified -- and some extent, as I've pointed out, solidified the Republican base after getting the primary. She has not yet done that, and you always get a bump after you get the nominee. She has not yet gotten her bump. She'll get it in three weeks or so. Then we'll see where the polls are.
BARTIROMO: So, you think Bernie Sanders will give into her?
ROGINSKY: I think Bernie Sanders has no choice to give into her at the convention because ultimately, he's not going to have the delegates to do it.
You know, the best thing -- if Bernie Sanders is serious about saying his priority is to defeat Donald Trump, he has no choice but to give into her.
SAYEGH: I think Julie is right on the consolidation point. Trump is definitely benefitting from Republicans coming around his candidacy. But Hillary Clinton was beating Donald Trump in the same Fox News poll by eight points just a month ago.
So, it's not as if Bernie Sanders leaves she's going to inherent this large bump. She already has the opportunity with Sanders in the race. Washington Post came out today. Trump is leading her by three points. In the ABC -- rather, the NBC News/The Wall Street Journal, she was leading by 11 months ago. She's only leading him by three points now.
The trajectory is very different and the momentum in a positive way is affirmative is moving toward Donald Trump. This is troublesome for Hillary because as you talk about honesty and trustworthy numbers being so low for her, look at the favorability. This Fox News poll that came out was the first time her unfavorable was actually higher than Donald Trump.
This is one thing Hillary Clinton campaign has been relying on, is that Donald Trump can never fix his unfavorability problem. It's really her who can't do it, because of a lot of her unfavorability is on character flaws. People think she's dishonest, they think she lied about the e-mails, her Clinton foundation, things about her political career that span 30 years.
With Trump, people don't like things he said, they don't like things he does, maybe derogatory comments about women. Those are less of a barrier to convince or change the mind of the voters than fundamental character flaws that the American voter firmly believes she has.
ROGINSKY: Let's talk about, I mean, you pointed out, Tony, you talked about momentum. To me, momentum doesn't exist. What exists is math, and, Ed, I think you'll back me up on this. Math is the most important key in any election.
When you look at a poll that has turnout that is predicated on 25 percent non-white turnout when in reality it will be a third of the electorate, there's just no way it will not be, then you have to look and suspect the fact that obviously her favorability may not be as high as his. If you're predicating this on the math that only a quarter of non-white people will turn out. It will be a third.
If you look at those and base is on mathematical numbers, again without boring, the modeling is there for her. Mathematically, it will be almost impossible for her to lose the election regardless of what Donald Trump does in the favorability rating.
ROLLINS: I disagree with that. Not that math doesn't matter.
I just think this is a different election. Traditionally, any Democrat has advantage because of the demographics that are changing. I think Trump has changed that dimension.
This is about leadership. This is about change. She is a policy wonk. She has not been attacked in a campaign the way she'll be attacked in the fall. Bernie Sanders has given her a free ride, some policy differences but not really the personal attacks.
Trump is going to hammer her every single day and make her look weaker and weaker as a leader. And this is going to be a contest about who can lead the country effectively. You may not like what Donald Trump is saying, but the argument he's making like me and what I'm going to do is what's going to be good for you and I think to a certain extent, that's going to benefit--
BARTIROMO: Yes, I think that's a reach where to say it's almost impossible for her not to win this election.
ROGINSKY: I mean, look at the demography and look at the mathematics here. And again, I keep going back to the fact that we lurch from poll to poll. We consistently do this. This is every election cycle, we lurch from poll to poll. But the one consistent, it's clear, and mathematically, based on modeling, based on projected turnout, based on the kind of demographics that will be turning out, unless for some reason, the growing Latino community, the growing African-American community suddenly says, we're staying home, and there's no indication based on anything Donald Trump has said that will make stay home, they're turning out.
ROLLINS: There's still a campaign to go. We don't just do it mathematical model and pick one's candidate. This is a campaign that's different. This is a campaign about leadership. This is a campaign about where we're going to take the country and that's --
SAYEGH: Make no mistake that Nate Silver and others who have done well in prognosticating because these the use these models on demographics have done wrong, which is Trump has expanded the base of which Republicans are getting votes.
If you look at these polls -- independents, white working class men, people talk about his problems with women voters. How about Hillary's enormous gap, which is even greater than Trump's gap with women, with men and white voters and other states now that formally were not in the cards.
Julie is right when you project the 2008 model, the 2012 model. The 2016 model is not the same. Trump's going to compete in Pennsylvania.
ROGINSKY: Wait, I'm sorry. I have to --
BARTIROMO: He could take New York. He could take New York.
ROGINSKY: Listen, let me come back to this. First of all, Hillary -- you're talking about her losing independents, losing white voters. Barack Obama lost both those demographics and he still won. She's competitive in Georgia --
SAYEGH: She's not going to get the turnout from her own base.
ROGINSKY: Of course she is.
ROLLINS: She's not Barack Obama.
ROLLINS: Barack Obama, when he first got elected, was very popular, was going to be the agent of change. Obviously, he wasn't. He won the second race because of a weak campaign and weak candidate in the end of the day.
My sense is, we have a strong candidate this time, you'd have weak --
BARTIROMO: Did you see the op-ed in "The Journal" this weekend, how does Obama get away with it? I mean, wages are down. Health care costs are up. It's hard to get a mortgage in lending today.
Hillary wants to build on Obamacare. It's been a failure if you look at what it's done for business, because business is not creating jobs. If you want -- it's been a failure. And yet --
ROGINSKY: I'll tell you how. I look at polls on this almost every day. The reason he's doing well, he's over 50 percent now, is because he's being contrasted with the alternative. When the alternative is the alternative, he starts to look great.
SAYEGH: And there's one variable Obama has always had regardless of his actual job performance is empathy. People think he's on their side. He's going out there, he's rhetorically saying things that make voters -- the average voters he's standing up for them, even though he's detached himself from any improvement or solution to fix this economy for the last eight years.
BARTIROMO: First time we haven't seen 3 percent economic growth under any president for eight years.
ROLLINS: And we won't. There will be no growth the rest of this administration.
BARTIROMO: And we got the GDP out --
ROLLINS: And the debt will be greater.
BARTIROMO: Meanwhile, this bitter back and forth between Bernie Sanders and the DNC. How will that impact the Democratic race heading into the home stretch of the primaries? We'll be right back after this with our panel.
We're looking ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Remember when I told everyone to stop talking about your damn e-mails? What a schmuck.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I know. Oh, my God, and remember all those states like Wyoming where you beat me by a lot but then I still got most of the delegates.
I don't really like people. I only talk to them because I want to be the president so bad. Please don't tell. Don't tell.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think they know. I'll lead.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Never.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BARTIROMO: "Saturday Night Live" injecting a little levity into the heated Democratic race, but the war of words between Senator Bernie Sanders and leaders of the Democratic Party no laughing matter. Sanders is accusing the DNC of favoring Hillary Clinton, particularly Debbie Wasserman Schultz. He's saying if he's elected president, he will not reappoint the committee's chairwoman, Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
The panel back on that. Ed Rollins --
ROLLINS: Even more fundamental, he is endorsing her opponent in a primary.
BARTIROMO: Yes, that's right.
ROLLINS: Unbelievable, unheard of.
Here is the most popular Democrat in the country, which he is at this point in time. She may be the nominee but he is the most popular Democrat in the country, and she's going to struggle all the way to the bitter end, may lose California at the end of day before they're going into the convention.
She's going to get the nomination but she's going to be wounded and wounded pretty severely.
BARTIROMO: Wow. So, you think she could lose California.
ROLLINS: Lose California.
ROGINSKY: Well, you know, I'll tell you this, I somehow recall 2008 that this was going on in the Democratic side as well. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, took it all the way to the convention then.
ROGINSKY: Then they unified.
The question for Bernie Sanders is he going to do what she did eight years ago, is he going to have a hard fought race and then stand up and say, I did my best and now I'm going to join the Democratic Party together and make sure we will be strong as we can be against Trump.
That remains to be seen. Everything he's doing now makes me suspect she has a long way to go to get him to do that.
ROLLINS: The people in his corner, his supporters. I mean, I think he will basically coalesce in the end to get these young supporters, first time and very much the energy of your party, you need them back.
SAYEGH: If you look at the YouGov poll that came out, you have 45 percent of Bernie Sanders supporters saying they won't vote for Hillary Clinton. Granted only 15 percent say they will vote for Donald Trump, but the others who are nontraditional voters, younger voters, millennials say they're going to stay home. That's a big problem for Hillary Clinton.
Another big problem is in that same exact poll, a majority of Bernie Sanders supporters don't like Hillary Clinton. They don't find her distrustworthy. They don't find her likeable at all. She's inheriting a lot of these flaws into the general election.
So, when you make Obama comparison to her, Obama was a historic aspirational candidate who beat a very strong candidate in Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton has fundamental flaws and she's struggling against probably one of the most flawed other opponents she could have had in Bernie Sanders.
He is not Joe Biden, he is not Elizabeth Warren. He was the C team, not even the B team of the Democratic Party and she can't put him away.
BARTIROMO: Tony, it's pretty extraordinary.
ROGINSKY: Yes, but, Tony, you're pretending that Donald Trump has consolidated his votes. The reality is about 40 percent of Republicans are saying they are not going to get behind him, either. So, look --
SAYEGH: I've been very candid about that problem.
ROGINSKY: Ultimately, when she is the nominee and she will be, I suspect they're going to come home, the same with Donald Trump is having Republicans come home now, everybody goes to their bases for the most part. He has to do his job the way that Ted Cruz ultimately and Marco Rubio and others will have to.
BARTIROMO: Some Democrats are upset with the choice.
ROGINSKY: Of course.
ROLLINS: As I open this up --
ROGINSKY: So are some Republicans --
ROLLINS: She has a campaign ready to go for the fall, she's not ready to go for the fall. She has to basically get rid of Sanders before she can start a full scale attack on him. He is free to put his campaign together, raise money and attack her every single day. And that's a good place to be.
BARTIROMO: And we haven't even heard from the FBI yet.
SAYEGH: That's right. What also comes into this is the stink of unfairness, the fact that the Democrats have this rigged system and now the establishment, the ruling class of their party is likely going to have their candidate, even though those same charges were made on the Republican side, the people, the grassroots, ultimately got the candidate they want. That's going to have a lot more strength.
ROGINSKY: What rigged system when she's beating him among pledged delegates.
SAYEGH: That's what he is saying. That's an argument he is making.
ROGINSKY: I agree that the super delegate system is disgusting and we need to get rid of it. But she's beating him fair and square.
SAYEGH: The perception among his voters is that it is rigged.
BARTIROMO: We'll leave it there. Thank you so much for joining us. Great panel, as always.
I'll see you tomorrow on the Fox Business Network, 6:00 a.m. bright and early. Have a good Sunday.
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