This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," April 15, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
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O'REILLY: Thanks for staying with us. I'm Bill O'Reilly in the "Unresolved Problem" segment tonight. At this point, the Republican convention which will be held in Cleveland in July is expected to be a brawl if Donald Trump does not come in with 1237 delegates that he needs to win the nomination outright.
With us, former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. You know the system as well as anyone. Let's assume Mr. Trump is not going to get 1237, he comes in 100, 200 light. If he sweeps California, he could do it.
NEWT GINGRICH, FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: Right.
O'REILLY: But he is now going to win I think on Tuesday in New York. You would agree, right?
O'REILLY: Okay. So, we don't know if he is going to get above 50 percent. Kasich seems to be a little momentum here. Somebody might hold him down below eight. But then he's probably going to win Pennsylvania. But you know, it gets to be dicey when he goes out west. So he rolls into town. Cruz rolls into town. Kasich rolls into Cleveland. What happens?
GINGRICH: Well, I think at 100, Trump probably gets there. If is he down 200 so if he is 1037 --
GINGRICH: I think he has a very hard time getting there.
O'REILLY: And the reason for that is, what?
GINGRICH: There won't be enough delegates available to us. Unless can he cut a deal with Kasich or deal with Rubio, there is not a big enough block of delegates.
O'REILLY: So, he doesn't have enough delegates and then it goes to individual voting after a couple of rounds, right? And the establishment clearly doesn't want Donald Trump to run.
O'REILLY: Do you still agree with that?
GINGRICH: Totally. Yes. The problem they have got is they don't want Cruz either.
O'REILLY: Yes. They are not identifying Cruz.
GINGRICH: So, and I don't see how you get past the two of them because my hunch is, I could be wrong. My hunch is, if you really said to Cruz, we could beat Trump but we're going to get bringing this brand new outsider.
O'REILLY: Yes. I don't think that's the reason.
Same thing with Trump.
It's either Cruz or Trump. And then they are calculating, okay, if we lose to the Democrats, we don't want to lose the Senate in the House, right?
O'REILLY: So, who going to do lesser damage? Is that the calculation that's being made?
GINGRICH: I think for some people that is the calculation. And you got the reality that Trump both has a bigger upside and bigger downside. So, he is a real gamble. Whereas Cruz is more -- you can sort of measure what Cruz's position will be. And where his strengths and weaknesses are, you see it partly in his primaries. I mean --
O'REILLY: Do you see Cruz as a Barry Goldwater type candidate? A very, very ardent conservative who is not going to be able to dissuade others?
GINGRICH: Well, I don't know. Cruz is much, much smarter, better educated, more cable as a debater. Than Goldwater was. And I loved Berry and I was part of his movement. But, I think you don't know how Cruz would do. What we do know that Cruz in many ways is kind of a traditional politician. He is a hard right in some ways. He is a constitutional conservative. And he is willing to fight in the Senate. But he is sort of a politician. We also know that Trump has this phenomenon that is pretty hard to understand.
O'REILLY: But he has topped out around 40 percent of the Republican electorate.
GINGRICH: Forty five in the latest poll.
O'REILLY: Forty five in the latest poll. And his unfavorables are very high.
O'REILLY: So, you said it is a gamble. When -- are you going to go to the convention by the way?
GINGRICH: Sure I will be there.
O'REILLY: Okay. You will be there. No matter what happens, it will be charges of dirty dealing, right? Behind the scenes.
GINGRICH: Yes. Probably.
GINGRICH: This is going to be, 1952 was really nasty between Taft and Eisenhower. 1976 was really tough.
O'REILLY: Reagan and ford.
GINGRICH: Between Reagan and Ford.
GINGRICH: And the Goldwater Convention was really nasty because even though Goldwater had the votes. The people who opposed to him hated him.
GINGRICH: Hated him, I think, more than the people who disliked Trump.
O'REILLY: I have seen Trump take it down this week.
O'REILLY: Have you see him take it down?
GINGRICH: He was brilliant at the New York Republican Party.
O'REILLY: He was like a comedy routine. He was talking about building a skating rink and all of that.
GINGRICH: And he was being positive. There is no more of this lying Ted stuff.
O'REILLY: Maybe he has now made the turn.
GINGRICH: Well, I think he has figured out that, you know, he has gotten as far as he is going to go as insurgent hard-nosed guy. Now he has got to add able to govern.
O'REILLY: He has got to be charming.
O'REILLY: And I think that he needs to watch me every night.
Mr. Speaker, thanks very much.
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