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Kelly File

Any truth to rumors the Trump campaign is in disarray?

This is a rush transcript from "The Kelly File," April 8, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MEGYN KELLY, HOST, "THE KELLY FILE":  Breaking tonight.  A delegate by delegate fight breaking out, unlike any we have seen in modern history, as the Republican presidential hopefuls try to reach the magic number of 1237 to win the nomination outright or prevent their rivals from doing so in order to force a floor fight at July's convention.  

Welcome to "The Kelly File," everyone.  I'm Megyn Kelly.  Over the past week, Senator Ted Cruz has been on a role, capitalizing on his well-organized campaign to grab a majority of delegates in North Dakota, Wisconsin, and now Colorado, where some 37 delegates in all are up for grabs.  Colorado has a very complex selection process that culminates this weekend.  It's like you've got to date Colorado, you got take it out for several drinks and finally we'll get to the weekend and see what happens.  

(LAUGHTER)

So far, Ted Cruz has managed to secure 21 of that state's delegates.  Donald Trump and John Kasich have been shut out so far denied.  But 13 more delegates will be awarded tomorrow.  And this is the beginning of a very complicated path that takes us through the remaining contest over the next two months.  For more on this, our chief explainer, our Chief Washington Correspondent James Rosen.  James?

JAMES ROSEN, CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT:  Megyn, if your head doesn't hurt by the time this segment is over, then I haven't done my job.  Consider that when New York's mostly lonely Republicans hold their primary April 19th, 81 of the 95 delegates up for grabs will reflect the results in the empire state's 27 Congressional districts.  Three delegates per district.  Clear 50 percent in a district and you get all three of its delegates.  Otherwise it's two for the top finisher, one for the runner-up. Of the remaining 14 delegates, 11 will elected at a state committee meeting, May 24, capture more than 50 percent of that vote and you sweep all 14 delegates.  If no candidate meets that threshold, the delegates get doled out proportionally.  So far most analyst agree Ted Cruz has developed a superior organization for cultivating delegates at the county and district levels.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CATLIN HUEY-BURNS, REAL CLEAR POLITICS REPORTER:  So he really doesn't have to convince the entire state of New York to support him.  He believes that Donald Trump will win, but he does think he can win over district by district and prevent Trump from getting the nomination that way.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROSEN:  The first of the two remaining Super Tuesdays comes a week later on.  April 26th, when voters cast ballots in Connecticut, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island.  That's 172 delegates, all awarded in the same winner take most formula as New York.  June 7 brings the final Super Tuesday with contests in New Jersey, California, Montana, New Mexico and North Dakota.  That's 302 delegates up for grabs all awarded you guessed it by a winner take most formulas.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LARRY SABATO, UVA CENTER FOR POLITICS:  The parties are Public Private Associations and they have their own rule books.  And when an election is very close in the nominating process, those rule books matter more than the primary results.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROSEN:  An open question in all of this is what happens if and when these delegates in a contested convention become unbound?  Are they really free agents or will they look to their own district and party chairs or members of Congress and governors for guidance on how to vote -- Megyn.

KELLY:  Yep, the head hurts.  Thanks, James.  Ted Cruz may be on a winning streak this week, but Donald Trump's new numbers -- his new numbers man says this is going to be short lived for Cruz.  Watch.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PAUL MANAFORT, DONALD TRUMP'S CONVENTION MANAGER:  By the time we get to California, the momentum is going to be very clear and Ted Cruz's path to victory is going to be in shambles.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY:  Chris Stirewalt is our Fox News digital politics editor.  Tucker Carlson is editor-in-chief of "The Daily Caller" and co-host of "Fox & Friends."  And no, Stirewalt and I did not plan this, but aren't we adorable?  

(LAUGHTER)

And Tucker got the little pink strives (ph) too.  Like a little Easter egg.  

TUCKER CARLSON, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF, "THE DAILY CALLER":  We think alike.  

KELLY:  Great to see you.  

CHRIS STIREWALT, FOX NEWS DIGITAL POLITICS EDITOR:  You bet.

KELLY:  I don't know -- I have no idea what's happening in Colorado.  It's very weird.  But basically Ted Cruz is winning the weird system in Colorado right now, Stirewalt.  

STIREWALT:  Look, nobody cared about -- this is always how it's been.  Nobody cared about this stuff before because guess what?  In the modern era, we've never been paying attention.  

KELLY:  Who the heck wants to woo New Yorkers?  

STIREWALT:  Right.  You're not like your Colorado, three dates and drink and then we'll see what happens on the weekend.  

KELLY:  Yes.

STIREWALT:  In New York, normally, it is just like, hey, whatever, make it happen.  But we now, I've had to learn about our -- county Republican head counts and all this stuff.  And because we're going deeper and later than we ever have.  And here is another thing, we are going to Tucker's country, we're going to California.  These things going all the way to June.  So, I'm going to have to learn a lot more.  

KELLY:  Just when I thought you knew everything.  Tucker, the reason we're getting into this mind numbing stuff is that there are two contests right now.  It's the vote -- it's the push to win the votes of the people --  

CARLSON:  Yes.

KELLY:  -- and the push to win the votes of the delegates.  And I think most Americans didn't quite realize that there was avenue B at all.  

CARLSON:  No.  Because as Chris said, they didn't have to.  It's like the 2000 recount.  The closeness has laid bare the details of the process and the closer you get, the uglier and more corrupt and flaky it looks.  It's dispiriting actually.  This is something you take for granted.  Our democracy works.  But again, the details are not something the average person has seen or really wants to see.  All of this though becomes moot if neither candidate gets to the majority of delegates.  Because after the first ballot, the delegates have an awful lot of attitude to choose who they vote for.  And at that point, what becomes the more important are the poll numbers.

The sense that, as conveyed to the delegates that one of these candidates can win in the fall.  And so that's really, it's important I think for the Trump people to hire an adult with relevant experience.  They did that with Paul Manafort.  They're not too many on that campaigns so it's a good thing.  But they need to make the case about electability.  That will win delegates much more than any machinations inside the hall.  I would predict.  

KELLY:  Uh-hm.  So now Chris, what Trump needs to do is, you know, what he's been doing, winning contests with the people.  

STIREWALT:  Right.

KELLY:  But he has got to work these delegates, too, to shore them up, to win them the way that Cruz is winning them, sort of on these delegates where people vote for them.  And it's like, you don't want to know, but basically you can win them without even involving the people.  

STIREWALT:  Right.

KELLY:  And then shoring them up before he gets to Cleveland in July to say, vote for me and you better stick with me.  And you can come down to Mar-a-Lago if you do.  This is legal.  We just had somebody talking about this on CNN saying, totally legal, you can woo them a little.  

STIREWALT:  You can woo him a little.  And you can take them to dinner and you can do whatever you want.  Look, here is the deal.  The deal is, if Donald Trump doesn't win this on the first ballot, he ain't winning.  So all this talk about, well, when the delegates unbind and all that stuff.  Well, it's not going to be Donald Trump.  If he's going to win, he has to get to 1237 on the first ballot.  It's going to be hard for him to get to the real number.  

But he will be close enough, he could be close enough, if the unbound delegates who are out there, there are hundreds of them, that could come over and put him over the top, that's what he needs to do and win on the first ballot.  Because if he doesn't, his delegates will abandon him, because many of them probably hundreds of them will be party loyalists who are delegates anyway but they're not out there to --   

KELLY:  Okay.  But that leads to the next question, Tucker, and the final one, which is what does Trump need to do on those electability polls to put the pressure on these people to say, you know, you may not like me, but I'm the only one who can beat Hillary Clinton, he has got to make that argument that Cruz cannot do it.  

CARLSON:  If the Cleveland convention were held today, I think Chris would be absolutely right and he might be right.  But Trump needs to make the case.  First, he will clean up the campaign and refocus it and make it about voters and not himself.  But second, he needs to say, look, how many Republican voters or any voters who didn't vote for Mitt Romney in 2012 are now going to vote for Ted Cruz if he's the nominee?  And that is a very small number.  And he can say, you know, I can excite these people.  He can make a case.  

KELLY:  Uh-hm.

CARLSON:  But the third factor to consider is, this is the most dynamic and volatile year of any of our lifetimes on the -- right now.  So you don't really know what America is going to look like three months from now.  I mean, there could be other crises that unfold that might benefit Trump.  I mean, I just -- I think it's hard to project out and imagine tomorrow's -- extrapolation from today.  If there was any year that it's not true, this is the year.

KELLY:  Great to see you.  

CARLSON:  Great to see you.  

STIREWALT:  You bet.  

KELLY:  So, Senator Cruz's relative successes in Colorado and beyond are prompting a series of reports suggesting that there may be disorganization inside of team Trump.  Politico declared Monday, "Trump campaign in disarray."  And this Wednesday from NBC, Infighting, frustration rile Trump's team," say sources.  Today, "The Washington Post" saying, Donald Trump's terrible night in Colorado exemplifies his campaign's Achilles heel.  But is that true?  

Joining me now, Katrina Pierson, national spokesperson for the Trump campaign.  And Rich Lowry who is a Fox News contributor and editor at National Review.  

Good to see you both.  

RICH LOWRY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR:  Hi, Megyn.  

KATRINA PIERSON, DONALD TRUMP CAMPAIGN NATIONAL SPOKESPERSON:  Hi, Megyn.

KELLY:  So Katrina, the media, they love these stories.  We saw this four years ago.  Any sort of campaign shuffle or shakeup of any sort is like, they're falling apart!  So, you tell me whether that is real or that is wishful thinking by the publications we just listed.  

PIERSON:  It is completely wishful thinking.  You know, the rumors of the Trump campaign demise are greatly exaggerated.  What we are seeing is the party apparatus in this state which is how the delegates are chosen and you just went through that entire discussion.  Mr. Trump has won 21 states.  Senator Cruz has won nine.  We won seven of Senator Cruz's states that he was supposed to win.  Yet there's this magical ground game that we're talking about.  Because Cruz is racking up delegates and the reason for that simply is this delegate system is an extension of the state Republican Party.  Therefore, a construction worker who maybe has two shifts and only been involved in the process for one or two cycles is not going to make it beyond the pyramid process from the precinct level or even the Congressional district.  He's working with the establishment and that's how he's getting those delegates.  

KELLY:  Everything she just said is right, is it not, Rich?  I mean, that is all true?  Is it not?

LOWRY:  Yes, and I think anyone who is writing Trump's political obituary is making a huge mistake.  A big win in New York, a big win in California.  It picks off a few unexpected states in between.  He can get to 1237, above  1237 and all of this is kind of academic.  But it is true that the Trump campaign wasn't built for this.  It was basically built as a media operation, with Donald Trump going from phone interview to phone interview, and that worked brilliantly, much better than anyone would expected.  But now we may really be getting into this granular delegate by delegate fight, and Ted Cruz is built for that, because there's nothing corrupt about it or establishment about it, it's just that he his campaign is a grassroots campaign that depends on organizing.  This is what it's been from the beginning.  

KELLY:  Uh-hm.  

LOWRY:  And if he wins the nomination, that is what's going to be at the end.  

KELLY:  The Republican Party for all of its victory has given.  Power to these delegates is just we haven't really paid any attention to it.  Katrina, let me ask you because there were also reports that Donald Trump is, he is taking a few days and he's, you know, not as much on twitter and he's kind of thinking about things and he brought in this guy Manafort who everybody says is very good.  Is there a shift happening here or what is happening?

PIERSON:  Well, there's an expansion that's happening here.  And if it were true what Rich said is that he has this masterful -- Ted Cruz has this masterful ground game, he would have won those seven states that Donald Trump won.  So, it's simple not true.  The Trump campaign has focus and as Mr. Manafort said earlier today on an interview, every campaign has a turning point when it's time to focus on something else.  Megyn, you'll have to remember, when this first began in June and Mr. Trump shot to the top, it was very much -- he was very much the guy to beat.  Now we have the GOP establishment joining with some conservatives who supposedly wanted to fight the establishment and we have this anti-Trump movement on top of that.  

We have the GOP literally telling everyone we are not going to let the people choose our nominee.  So, of course Mr. Trump brings in someone that specializes in the convention process, because again, this is a party apparatus.  They've already publicized the fact that they don't want Trump or Cruz.  So if Cruz wants to allow himself to be that Trojan horse in the convention, go right ahead.  But we are confident that we're going to get those delegates by the time we get there.  

KELLY:  What do you think of that Rich?  Is there a chance, you know, that -- I mean, a realistic chance that Trump is going to get that 1237  number before -- or as of June 7th, which is the very last day that they vote?

LOWRY:  Yes.  There's some quite realistic chance.  I would say 30 percent chance or so.  But if it goes to a convention, the rule is you have to get a majority of the delegates.  And there's a reason for that rule, it's very basic.  That's the minimum requirement for showing you have a consensus of the party.  And if no one gets there, then the rule of delegates comes in.  

KELLY:  But wait, but let me just say --  

PIERSON:  They can change the rules.  They can change the rules.  

KELLY:  If you're looking for consensus and you get to the second ballot and still somebody, you know, who just one of those three guys doesn't get it and they do parachute in a third person, I guess a fourth person because Kasich's up there too.  That's not a consensus candidate.  

LOWRY:  Yes.  Well, I think that scenario is very unlikely and I would counsel against it.  But the paradox and I want to underline the point that Tucker made, the general election polls are very important.  Because the paradox had Trump is that he's rocketed to front-runner status in the Republican nomination battle.  At the same time, he's made himself toxic with the general public.  Nearly 70 percent disapproval rating in his A.P. poll this week.  Donald Trump loves to talk about polls.  There's a reason he's not talking about general election polls very much recently.  Also in that A.P. poll, 30 percent of Republicans say they wouldn't vote for Donald Trump in the fall.  That is a party heading to a debacle.  There's no way that delegates if they had a major rule at this convention are going to forge a suicide pack with Donald Trump for the fall.  

PIERSON:  In that same poll though, Megyn, in that same poll --  

KELLY:  Yes.

PIERSON:  Ted Cruz is at 60 percent unfavorable, and Hillary Clinton is only five points down from Trump.  There have been many elections in the past where the front-runner at this point in time was 20 to 25 points behind.  

KELLY:  I think if Donald Trump is at 59 percent unfavorable, Ted Cruz is at 59 percent unfavorable and Hillary Clinton is down at 55 percent unfavorable.  So pick your poison, American people.  Thank you both so much for being here.  

CARLSON:  Thanks so much.  

KELLY:  So one political analyst says, came up with five possible outcomes at the GOP convention.  They are easy to understand.  Look, we even did a fancy graphic.  

And coming up, we'll going to give you the odds on which of these five outcomes is the most likely.  

Plus, with another contentious week on the campaign trail, coming to a close, Mark McKinnon, one of the creator of the Showtime hit "The  Circus" is back again with some of the key moments you didn't see but should.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Wisconsin would be the last best chance for the challengers to make a play.  Someone but Trump or Clinton has to win or --  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  It's over.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  It's all but over.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  I think there's a very good chance Cruz will win and win big here.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY:  Well, Showtime's popular series "The Circus" has been giving viewers a front row seat to the 2016 presidential campaign.  Now the show's producers are hitting the pause button to reflect on how we got to this point, and one of their key moments involves the run-up to this week's primary in Wisconsin.  Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  I'm getting tired of you guys.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  This stage has got a traditional -- all over the place.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  You've got really conservative, Tea Party movement here and then you have of course labor unions, a huge part of the politics in this state.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  That's some pretty rich history.  1960 John Kennedy runs against Humphreys.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Kennedy have lost the 60 primary in Wisconsin -- probably would have been the Democratic nominee.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Wisconsin could be the last best chance for the challengers to make a play.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Someone but Trump or Clinton has to win here or --  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  It's over.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  It's all but over.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  I think that's a very good chance Cruz will win and maybe win big here.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Any state that has any sort of retail campaign and capacity to organize, where you have to really do something strategic, Cruz outruns him.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Kasich doesn't really think he can win the primary.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  John Kasich is now in the delegate accumulation business.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  That's right.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  He's not in the winning state business.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  This is a game of checkers and he's trying to play chess.  But --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  Bernie Sanders fans think that we have all buried Bernie Sanders too early.  They are constantly howling all you (bleep) in the media who say this race is over according to some people at this table, I'm talking about media.  They even saying, look, this race is alive and we'll going to show you right here in Wisconsin.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  They might be right.  

UNIDENTIFIED MALE:  If Trump and Clinton both get beaten here, it blows up the narrative of this race is all but done.  You take the fork that was in the race like this and you pull the fork out of the race like that.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY:  Joining me now, Mark McKinnon, co-creator of "The Circus" and former chief media adviser to President George W. Bush.  Good to see you, Mark.  

So, I guess I saw you drinking in this clip.  Looks pretty fun out there.  I don't know why we're feeling sorry for you guys on the road all the time. Mark -- and that moment is pretty interesting, because earlier on "The Circus" he had stuck the knife into the steak saying thing race is over and now he's saying, no, this race is not over on either side.  

MARK MCKINNON, CO-CREATOR OF "THE CIRCUS":  That's right.  Yes.  John stuck a fork in it a couple of weeks ago and last week he pulled the fork out of it.  I mean, the biggest prediction that we made that was wrong was that in the very beginning, we budgeted the show and we had 24 episodes and we said we have to save some for the summer and some for the fall.  So, let's just do 10 for the spring.  We've been extending it to 12.  But there's, you know, still not resolved.  And it could go all the way to the convention.  But we've got to hit the pause button as you said and we'll be up for the summer, for the convention and then back-up to the general election in the fall.  But it's been a really exciting, dramatic race and it may just continue to be that way.  

KELLY:  Why was the estimate so off?  I mean, because Trump lost Wisconsin and Hillary lost Wisconsin?  Because, you know, Trump, he lost Wisconsin, it was a setback but he has got New York right around the corner.  

MCKINNON:  Well, it was so off because you look out historically and a year ago when we planned this thing, we said, yes, it will probably be wrapped up after Super Tuesday.  

KELLY:  Yes.  But I mean, the prediction that it's done.  The prediction that it's done.  You know, he was saying that the race --  

MCKINNON:  Oh, oh, oh.  Yes, well, I mean, first of all you look at the delegates and the super delegates on the Democratic side and all those super delegates are really likely to go to Clinton.  I mean, there's, you know, convenient theory put forward by the Sanders' people that it went to get down, that if the delegate count is close, that those super delegates will look and they look at polls and say perhaps Sanders is better general election candidate, stronger that they might switch.  The fact is, that those super delegates are really dedicated long time loyalist to Clinton and very unlikely to switch.  And, you know, a couple of weeks ago, it looked like Trump was having a pretty good run and at least on a traditional path, it wins New York, wins california that you would likely get pretty close to the majority of delegates needed.  

KELLY:  That's her ace in the hole, those super delegates.  Because even if Bernie gets very close to her in the delegates she gets from winning the races, she too has this ace in the hole, she's sort to has what Cruz has which is things that are available not from -- not via the will of the people.  

Well, that's right.  And these super delegates, you know, they go back decades with the Clintons.  Ninety five percent of people that worked with the Clintons in those '72 McGovern campaign.  I mean, that just goes back forever.  So they're deeply loyal to the Clintons and it's just unlikely under any scenario that they would come unglued and go with Sanders at some point in the race.  So, those super delegates are big thing in the pocket of the Clinton campaign.  Not to be underestimated.

KELLY:  It's amazing.  It's amazing how that race keeps going and he's got a lot of money in the coffers.  Bernie Sander does and it's not --   

MCKINNON:  Forty four million just in the last month, amazing.  

KELLY:  I can't put it the way you put it on your clip.  But he had a message, yes, for the --  

MCKINNON:  He's got the passion, he's got the burn.  

KELLY:  Mark, it's great to see you.  

MCKINNON:  Thanks for having us on.  

KELLY:  Well, with the contested convention looking more and more likely tonight, one political analyst has come up with five possible outcomes at the GOP convention.  They are easy to understand.  And coming up, we will give you the odds on which one is most likely.  

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANNOUNCER:  From the world headquarters of Fox News, it's "The Kelly File" with Megyn Kelly.  

KELLY:  Breaking tonight.  The Republican race to the nomination may be more complicated than we've seen in years.  But this week, a veteran political scientist by the name of Norm Ornstein posted a piece of analysis at the Atlantic offering five possible outcomes on how the Republican race could end.  Convention expert Tom Bevan will give us his odds on each scenario in a moment.  

But first we go to Trace Gallagher who has the breakdown on what to expect.  Trace?

TRACE GALLAGHER, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT:  Megyn, regardless of how the nomination process ends, we know for sure that it won't end until at least June 7th, the day of the last GOP contest.  There is no realistic way for any candidate to get to 1237 delegates before then.  And the truth is, unless something miraculous happens, only Donald Trump has a path to actually hit 1237.  So the first scenario is very simple.  Donald Trump goes on a roll, hits the magic number on June 7th and becomes the nominee.  The second scenario would be that Donald Trump falls short of 1237 but in the 45 days between the last primary and the start of the convention, Trump is somehow able to gather enough unbound delegates to push him over the top.  

But that would mean the GOP establishment would have to coalesce around Donald Trump in the hope of avoiding a contested convention.  Scenario three is the one Ted Cruz is hoping for, and that's a contested convention where Donald Trump loses on the first ballot and then delegates become unbound.  And because the Cruz campaign has been very effective at going state to state, courting those delegates, on the second ballot, they dump Trump, climb on board with Cruz and make him the nominee.  That might please some of the GOP establishment like Lindsey Graham, Jeb Bush and Mitt
Romney, but it would infuriate Trump supporters which could lead to chaos in Cleveland.  

Scenario four goes like this.  GOP party leaders decide to propose new rules, allowing other candidates into the mix, maybe paving the way for someone like Paul Ryan.  But in that scenario, Trump and Cruz could fight back by creating an alliance and pooling their delegates.  Even setting up a Trump-Cruz ticket.  

Scenario five, we could call the Karl Rove scenario.  Looking for a fresh face on the presidential ballot.  Listen.  

Scenario five, we could call the Karl Rove scenario. Looking for a fresh face on the presidential ballot. Listen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KARL ROVE, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR IN HUGH HEWITT SHOW: Somebody who has, you know, has those convictions that they express in a compelling way, we could come out of the convention in a relatively strong position.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALLAGHER: And the idea there is to stop the bleeding to find someone who may not beat Hillary Clinton but would at least get Republicans to show up and vote to maintain control of the House and Senate. If you think Cleveland rocks now, we'll wait until July. Megyn?

MEGYN KELLY, THE KELLY FILE HOST: Wow, very clear. Thank you, Trace. Well, many possibilities but there will only be one outcome. Joining me now, Tom Bevan. He's the co-founder of RealClearPolitics.com, favorite web site by the way, and he's going to tell us which one of these is actually going to happen. So, which is it?

(LAUGHTER)

TOM BEVAN, REALPOLITICS.COM CO-FOUNDER: I don't know, Megyn. Nobody knows.
Look, I think if you look at scenario number one, I'd rate that at about 25 percent, one in four chance that Trump .

KELLY: Trump wins outright.

BEVAN: . will get -- that he wins outright, and that will become a lot clearer after New York here in about 11 days. If he can stay above 50 percent and sweep up a lot of those delegates, that will boost him moving into those -- those other East Coast primaries and the other state to watch incidentally is Indiana. That's a big one that's being sort of overlooked. If Trump can win in Indiana, that will set him up for, you know, a pretty good position in California and in that case, he probably would get there but he's not going to get there by much yet he gets there is going to be just a few delegates.

KELLY: It's going to come down to June 7th, at best for these candidates. No would -- nobody is getting the nomination before June 7th at the earliest.

BEVAN: That's right.

KELLY: OK.

BEVAN: And -- and so if you look at scenario number two where Trump is short, I would give that about -- about -- about .

KELLY: Yes, the scenario two .

BEVAN: . a little bit higher at 20 .

KELLY: . is we get to June 7th, all the voting is done and Trump is the leader, but he doesn't have 1,237.  So, how does he quote, "make up" the difference between June 7th and the convention in late July?

BEVAN: Well, he's going to have to woo these delegates like -- like Stirewalt was saying earlier, you know, we're going to think about the dinner. He's going to -- he's got a backroom deal, you know, this is .

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: Which ones?

BEVAN: . he said -- he says -- he ways, he's a dealmaker, and he's going to have to prove it, and he's hired a guy in Paul Manafort that -- that that's his -- that's his expertise .

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: But which ones do they go to?

BEVAN: . is to find the delegate.

KELLY: The ones who are not bound who are -- who are going to the convention at the various starts but they're -- they're not pledged (ph).  So, it's like, "I don't have a partner .

BEVAN: That's right.

KELLY: I'm available. I like Mar-a-Lago (ph).

BEVAN: That's right.

KELLY: Right?  That has no worked.

BEVAN: Yes, exactly. They're free agents. There are -- it's -- that's exactly right.  And -- and again, it's going to matter how close he gets to the number, and I will use 1200 as sort of a break-even point. If he gets to 1,200, you know, he's probably -- he could probably get there. If he's under 1,200, I think it's going to be a lot harder and it's going to -- it's going to also depend how he finishes off. If he's got momentum heading in to California beyond California, I think it will be easier for him to sweep up some of these delegates. If he stumbles, you know, finishes it with whimper. It's going to be a little bit harder for him.

KELLY: So, we understand how it happens that, you know, Cruz would win on the second ballot, now, but do you -- what about this other scenario where Trump and Cruz unite to give the establishment one of these if the establishment .

BEVAN: Right.

KELLY: . whoever the establishment is, just go with it, wants to pilot in a third party candidate. Do you think there's any chance these two men actually want to combining for, you know, a president-vice president combo?

BEVAN: It seems unlikely. But, you know, look, we've had Stranger Bedfellows. I mean, JFK despised Lyndon Johnson ended with him on the tickets. So, it seems stuff like this happened in the past.

Trace mentioned the rules, but imagine this, Megyn, so Trump, I agree, it's -- he's either gets it on the first ballot or he's done. Cruz is to going to have his chance to flex his delegate muscles. If he can get it on the second -- second ballot, if he gets denied on the second ballot, then he might be done.

The longer this goes on, the more ballots it goes, the more pressure is going to be on these -- on these delegates to find a compromise candidate. So, the worse is going to get Trump and Cruz may end up on the look -- on the outside looking in. So, maybe perhaps on -- on the third delegate, Cruz goes to Trump and says, "Hey, let's pool our delegates. We've combined, unified ticket," and -- and suddenly that's how I think the small -- small chance of that, maybe 10 percent, but it is definitely something that could happen.

KELLY: We've got to eat our Wheaties (ph) in the month of July. Getting ready for that thing. Tom, great to see you, very clear. Thank you.

BEVAN: Thanks, Megyn.

KELLY: Well, President Bill Clinton was doing a little damage control today after he went head to head with protesters from the Black Lives Matter Movement yesterday. We showed this to you. Robert Zimmerman and Eboni Williams are next on what this means for President Clinton and for his wife, who would like to be President Clinton.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Hi. New fallout for the Clinton campaign today after President Bill Clinton dust-up with the group of Black Lives Matter Protesters created some unwanted heartburn as opposed to the wanted heartburn for his wife's campaign. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILL CLINTON, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT: I don't know how you would characterize the gang leaders who got 13-year-old kids hopped up on crack and sent them out on the street to murder other African-American children. Maybe you thought they were good citizens.

(CROWD CHEERING)

She didn't. She didn't! You are defending the people who killed the lives you say matter. Tell the truth!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: And while many have argued that President Clinton was making valid points, the former president came just inches away from apologizing today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: So, I did something yesterday in Philadelphia, I almost want to apologize for it, but I want to use it as an example of the danger threatening our country. I rather vigorously defended my wife as I'm one to do, and I realized finally I was talking past her the way she is talks past me. We've got to stop that in this country. We've got to listen to each other.

(APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: The question now as Vanity Fair summed up in this headline is whether President Clinton is losing his political mojo? Robert -- Robert Zimmerman is the DNC committee member and Clinton supporter. Eboni Williams is a Fox News Contributor. Good to see you both.

ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE MEMBER: Good to be with
you.

KELLY: So, there was a -- I mean, did -- did the campaign take him behind the woodshed and say, "Mr. President, not helpful?"

ZIMMERMAN: Never works that way .

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: If not  (ph) .

ZIMMERMAN: . not with -- not with Bill Clinton certainly and very frankly .

KELLY: But his wife could do it.

ZIMMERMAN: Yes, I think -- what they discussed amongst themselves is I'm not privy to. But the bottom-line is that was a real authentic moment.

KELLY: Yes.

ZIMMERMAN: I mean, we always talk about wanting to see our political leaders unscripted and just being candid, and that's what it was.

KELLY: He was fiery. He was fiery, but .

ZIMMERMAN: He was fiery.

KELLY: . is it politically risky?

ZIMMERMAN: You know, something - I don't think for a moment. Let's remember the Crime Bill that he's talking about was supported by half of the Black Congressional Caucus by many African-American clergy. It was dealing with the real crime crisis in America. One of the unintended consequences was mass incarceration. Hillary Clinton has acknowledged that, and she has tried address it in this campaign, so is Bill Clinton for that matter.

KELLY: Yes.

ZIMMERMAN: But I think - having those kinds unscripted candid moments I think is very good for the system and good for the -- good for our debate.

KELLY: Is there an opportunity here do you think for Bernie Sanders to make inroads with Black Democratic voters because the assumption going into this race was Hillary Clinton has got those folks locked up that they love Bill Clinton. They'll probably love her, too.

EBONI WILLIAMS, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Oh, surely (ph), Megyn. Look, here's the issue. I agree, there was a moment of truth and certainly honesty to Robert's point in what we saw from Bill Clinton. But for many in the black community, Megyn, they feel like there is at best a conflict. Because last summer at the NAACP convention, President Clinton said, "You know what, the scope was maybe indeed too broad. Too many black people were incarcerated in for too long."

So then they hear him kind of back pedaling (ph) now, it does seem inconsistent at best. Here's the other issue, politically very risky because black voters are probably been the most consistent voter base for Hillary Clinton. The south, she absolutely does have that firewall that she spoke up. That's a place Bernie Sanders has not been able to permeate, and so indeed, if he's able to get even a little bit of that part of the electorate, that can make a big difference for him.

KELLY: This time we're waiting to see the New York vote, right?

WILLIAMS: Yes.

KELLY: And this is her adopted home state.

WILLIAMS: Right.

KELLY: Will you make -- I mean, we actually ran a report on how many times she swiped this - the metro card, and how it should have been easier and then she went on the subway and she had -- and maybe she violated rules. It got a lot of presses the point.

ZIMMERMAN: Of course.

KELLY: So -- and -- and people said she didn't look real because we all know she doesn't take the subway, Robert. We all know that.

ZIMMERMAN: Hey, look. I'm .

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: Finally, she has to pretend she takes it.

ZIMMERMAN: . I've had difficulty with my metro card, too.

KELLY: Me, too. I said that last night.

ZIMMERMAN: OK, OK, OK.

WILLIAMS: I don't.  I don't. I don't know why.

(CROSSTALK)

ZIMMERMAN: So, those .

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: So, at times it would be .

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

KELLY: . around the first time.

ZIMMERMAN: Look, here's the point. In the scrutiny of the presidential campaign, you've got political pundits with too much time on their hands. So, they're going to obsess about the metro card and they've got to make you .

KELLY: But she is the one who went on the subway like she is woman of the people.

ZIMMERMAN (?): Hey.

KELLY: But maybe -- but she does not have to ride the subway falsely .

ZIMMERMAN (?): Hey.

KELLY: . to tell us that.

ZIMMERMAN: Did you say Ted Cruz trying to make muscle (ph) yesterday? He look .

KELLY: Well, problems on both sides.

ZIMMERMAN: . exactly. I mean, yes.

(LAUGHTER)

WILLIAMS: Here's the question now, Robert, right. I mean, I think we all know, because when -- when she came out of the White House, they were talking how they were broken, and I think for most Americans that felt a bit, you know, I think you can maybe even offensive. Just be OK with who you are, and your stature and how far you've come and maybe people can palate that more.

(CROSSTALK)

ZIMMERMAN: You know something .

KELLY: And she came out and said .

ZIMMERMAN: Yeah.

KELLY: . "I haven't taken the subway -- I haven't taken the subway in years." You know what, I'm the former .

(CROSSTALK)

WILLIAMS: I'm the first lady .

KELLY: . first lady.

(CROSSTALK)

WILLIAMS: I was the secretary of state.

ZIMMERMAN: And then .

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: This is one of the fringe benefits of being me.

WILLIAMS: They got one (ph).

ZIMMERMAN: By the way, then they got political pundits talking about her not being in touch. The bottom-line is if she wasn't authentic, she wasn't herself. She wouldn't have been elected to the Senate from New York. She wouldn't have been reelected. This is a pretty tough scrutinizing State of New York.

KELLY: How about Bernie Sanders saying, "I've used a token -- I've used the token to get on."

WILLIAMS: Oh, that's why -- that's the issue, right. So, every time .

KELLY: He can't use the token anymore.

WILLIAMS: . you want -- right. You know, you want to say Bernie has an opening, right, or there's an opportunity here. He also voted for the 1994 bill.

KELLY: That's right.

ZIMMERMAN: That's right.

WILLIAMS: So, you know, they really are two sides of different -- of the same coin rather and so it's really tough for many in the -- of the people community so to speak, to identify with either on some level.

KELLY: So, it's - as I said earlier .

ZIMMERMAN: Of the .

KELLY: . pick your poison. Got to go.

WILLIAMS: Yeah. I agree.

ZIMMERMAN: OK.

KELLY: Thank you, both.

Coming up, wait until you see how some students want the girl behind this pro-Trump post punished, that's a lot of alliteration. We will bring you the latest dispatch from Cupcake Nation, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think the law and I this is what it looks like to actually get in the way of what it is -- of what might

(CROSSTALK -- MULTIPLE SPEAKERS)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Another dispatch from Cupcake Nation tonight, as student protesters at a University in Portland descend on a pro-Trump meeting organized by their peers not to engage in a debate, but rather to silence the pro-Trump students for holding political views other than their own. It happens all the time. Trace Gallagher, live on our West Coast Newsroom with the story. Trace?

GALLAGHER: Megyn, the meeting in Portland State was standing room only filled with both Trump supporters and protesters. It was rockiest (ph), contentious, bordering (ph) on ferocious. They were able to hold their fists, but their voices ran unfiltered. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You (BEEP) shut on (BEEP) (BEEP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Go to the students and don't disrupt meeting.

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE/FEMALE: Can't stop the Trump! Can't stop the Trump! Can't stop the Trump!

(SHOUTING)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALLAGHER: Amid the F-bombs (ph) and insults, there were some short-lived pockets of calm even brief moments of rational dialogue. Watch again.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't see why it's fair to let other people.  We are going to VCRs (ph) because the criminals can take anything. Just the love the country with that sort of reinvesting or anything of that.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, he has made very clear though is that he hates Mexicans, he hates Muslims people.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: In case they need it .

(CROSSTALK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Why are you -- why are you start -- students against Trump?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALLAGHER: But in the end, those who support Donald Trump felt drowned out by those who don't and though the meeting was never officially adjourned, students for Trump steadily left the building which emboldened the protesters. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I fell good at (BEEP).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If you do this (BEEP).

(SHOUTING)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're coming back.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE/FEMALE: We're coming back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALLAGHER: Later on social media, students for Trump called the meeting a win suggesting the display reflected poorly on the protesters. Megyn?

KELLY: Trace, thank you.

While the attack on political speech hitting the University of Tennessee, Chattanooga, as Haley Puckett, a newly elected student Senator joined friends in choking (ph) pro-Trump art and messages on campus. Now, peers claim she is not fit to represent them in the student Senate and they are demanding that she resign from her student government post. Haley Puckett has a response for those critics and she joins me now.

Haley, how are you doing? So, you decide to go down with some friends to the sidewalk and to express your support for Donald Trump. How? Explain what you wrote.

HALEY PUCKETT, UNIVERSITY OF TENNESSEE, CHATTANOOGA, STUDENT:  Well, we went down to Heritage Plaza and they already started to working on the artwork and they wrote, "Trump 2016" and drew a hat with, "Make America great again" and then my friends drew a wall right underneath the artwork, so.

KELLY: And what was the first whiff you got that this was wrong from -- according to your peers?

PUCKETT: Well, I put it on Twitter, and after about 26 minutes, a bunch of people just started tweeting at me and very harsh and threatening things. So, I was just like, "I'll just take it down because if it's hurting that many people, I'll take it down." So I did.

KELLY: Why can't you have your point of view that you like Donald Trump and -- and are in favor of a wall to protect the Southern Border, and they have their view and everyone gets to express it?

PUCKETT: Yeah. That's the same feeling I have. I feel that I don't really question their opinions, so I don't feel like they should have to question mine.

KELLY: But even if they question your opinions, I think what we just saw at that other university  where they're serving up they're fighting .

PUCKETT: Yeah.

KELLY: . the dialogue was a little dicey, but at least they're fighting and they're expressing ideas. In your campus, they want you fired. They want you off the student -- the student government. Why? Because of the chalk? Because you wrote make America great again with a wall?

PUCKETT: Well, everything has been taken a little out of context. They are saying that the wall is about division and that we want unity on campus but we also want to include everyone. So, it's just kind of hard to say that I'm wrong and then also say, that you want unity. So, it's just .

KELLY: Haley, why do you like Donald Trump? Why -- why are supporting him?

PUCKETT: Well, I feel like that he can bring up our economy and just help everything about the United States.

KELLY: We will continue to follow your story. By the way, are you going to resign?

PUCKETT: No. I am not going to resign. I was elected by my students and my district, and I feel that if they elect me then I want to serve them.

KELLY: Good for you. Thanks for being here tonight. We'll be right back.

PUCKETT: All right. Thank you so much.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: A great day today in New York as variety magazine hosted its Power of Women New York Event. Some well-known faces were recognized for their charitable works, including actresses Lupita Nyong'o, Julianne Moore, fashion designer, Vera Wang, an amazing and groundbreaking ballet dancer Misty Copeland. Yours truly honored to be there and was given the chance to speak about my favorite charity, Child Help.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Child Help is brave. Yvonne and Sarah are brave. They do not look away. They intervene to prevent the abuse through in-school education programs trying to show kids what abuse is. And how to stop it, what to do if it's happening to them.

To stop the abuse, with their 24/7 national hotline, 1800-4-A-child, staffed by professional crisis counselors. Most of whom have master's degrees and can provide help in 170 languages. To heal the wounds of abuse with recovery centers known as Villages where the most severely abused and
neglected children go for love and counseling, but it takes money to help the children which is where we come in.

Imagine being the one whose donation helps a child out of an abusive home and into a facility that greets every boy and girl with the words, "All who enter here will find love."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: That number is 1800-4-A-child or childhelp.org. Surrounded by powerful women today, we also discussed the concept of fearlessness. A word it seems we're hearing a lot lately about women and girls in particular.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Some have used that word fearless about me. And it's wrong. I am not fearless nor do I know any fearless people. This seems to be a new standard, a new goal that we are setting for people. Go forth unafraid. You go forth unafraid. I'm scared about a lot often. Fear is normal. The goal is not to get rid of it. The goal is to walk through it.

(APPLAUSE)

Courage is what we need. Courage. If you can muster courage in the face of fear you become more confident. You become tougher. Vanity Fair called me the toughest anchor at Fox. OK. I'm tough. But I cry. I worry. I have fear. I have self-doubt. I have insecurities. I have cellulite. What?

(LAUGHTER)

I don't want to lose or fail or embarrass myself any more than the next gal, but I am willing to take the risk of doing all that and more for the chance to make my life sing. To make it sing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: But by the summer, I'm going to work on that. I'm going to look like Misty Copeland because I'm going to eat well, I'm going to exercise.  

Go to Facebook.com/thekellyfile with your thoughts. Follow me on Twitter @Megynkelly. Thanks for watching, everyone. This is "The Kelly File."

END

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