This is a rush transcript from "Special Report," April 1, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CHRIS WALLACE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Are you ruling out running as an independent third party candidate? Are you ruling that out?
DONALD TRUMP, REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Look, I'm by far --
WALLACE: It's a simple question.
TRUMP: It's not that simple. I'm by far the frontrunner as a Republican. I want to run as a Republican. I will beat Hillary Clinton.
WALLACE: But if you don't get the nomination.
TRUMP: We're going to have to see how I was treated. I've going to have to see how I was treated, very simple.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRET BAIER, ANCHOR: Donald Trump talking to Chris Wallace. He will be on "FOX News Sunday" this weekend. All of the Republican candidates basically have ripped up that pledge as we have reported.
Taking a look at the latest polls, FBN poll out last night in Wisconsin, Cruz with a 10 point lead. You see the margin of error 3.5. If you look at the next poll, it's interesting. Remember, Scott Walker has endorsed Ted Cruz. If Walker was in the race in Wisconsin, there is how it would play out. That's the question there.
And it is Friday. And even on this strange Friday we head to a place called Candidate Casino. OK, Republican side. Steve, first to you. Where do you put your bets?
STEVEHAYES, THE WEEKLY STANDARD: So I put my bets on the Republican side $55 for Trump, $30 for Cruz, $5 on an unknown candidate who emerges at the convention, and I save $10 for a big glass of Jordan cab.
BAIER: You have the sponsor, always.
HAYES: There is no sponsor. That's just what I felt like when I was coming up with this was having a big glass of Jordan cab. Didn't feel like a beer day as it often does.
Look, I think Trump going into Wisconsin has been unwise attacking Scott Walker. He has attacked his budget reforms which Wisconsin Republicans like. They believe they were successful. The numbers suggest they were successful. And hitting Scott Walker for refusing to raise taxes is a questionable strategy.
BAIER: OK, Dave, your bets?
DAVID CATANESE, U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT: I have $60 on Trump, $30 on Cruz, and $10 on Kasich. Look, I think this was the worst week for Donald Trump's campaign not because of necessarily the events because he has weathered them before, but because of what comes next. On Tuesday night he will lose the Wisconsin primary most likely. That is going to allow the media to say his mistakes mattered. And then he is going to have this two week stretch where he will be under siege by the media, frankly, about whether his campaign is in collapse, because he has two weeks until New York where there is time for another yet redemption story which he will probably win. This is going to be a rough and tumble two weeks.
BAIER: If he gets over 50 percent, he gets all 95 delegates in New York. If he doesn't, then it gets split between Cruz and Kasich, and it becomes a lot tougher to get to that 1,237 number. OK, your bet, Sharyl?
SHARYL ATTKISSON, ANCHOR OF 'FULL MEASURE': Regardless of how Wisconsin turns out, all my money on Trump.
BAIER: Wow, a black chip. We rarely see black chips here at this table. It's good to have you. You are a high roller.
ATTKISSON: It's been a while since I was here. Last time nobody was voting for Trump except Sharyl.
BAIER: That's true.
ATTKISSON: And this is not a personal vote. It's an anticipation of what I think the voters might do. I think it was $80-$20 when I was here before, and now all of it.
BAIER: Again, we rarely see black chips. OK, Charles?
CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: So it's not advocacy. It's just analysis.
KRAUTHAMMER: That's good to hear. So I've got $70 on Trump, which is a little bit below where I was last week. I think this is a Trump slump, a minor one. Cruz at $25. And now I was going to put the $5 on Kasich, but I have tried wine, I tried whiskey, I tried antidepressants, and last week I tried opioids. So I have only one choice left because the only alternative now is hemlock. And I'm not quite prepared to take it.
BAIER: Oh, man.
BAIER: He is only joking. It's all a big joke. It's not advocacy. It's just analysis.
KRAUTHAMMER: Don't try this at home.
BAIER: OK. Is there -- what is the percentage that we are going to a brokered convention -- not brokered, contested convention? Percentage right now? This is not chips.
KRAUTHAMMER: I think it's over 50 percent. I might put it somewhere at 70.
ATTKISSON: No idea. Pass.
BAIER: You pass. But you are block chip so you are probably at 1,237.
CATANESE: It's 75 percent. They are going to try to do everything in their power to wrest this nomination from Trump if he falls on delegate short.
BAIER: But that just seems like it's --
CATANESE: But if he doesn't get there, they are going to point to the rules and I think they are going to -- because this is about the future of the party. They think they are going to lose this election anyway. It's about the Senate, it's about the House, it's about the party. And I think they will try to wrest it from him.
HAYES: I would say just under 50 for a brokered convention. If he gets 1,237, he is the nominee, he should be the nominee, and there should be no funny business. If he is short, they should do everything they can to keep him from getting the nomination.
BAIER: OK, you heard it here first.
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