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Kelly File

What victories for Sanders, Trump in New Hampshire mean for the 2016 race

This is a rush transcript from "The Kelly File," February 10, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MEGYN KELLY, HOST: Breaking tonight, the first in the nation primary offering up some big time surprises. Not necessary in the winner's bracket, but how the candidates won and why. And where they will place when it is all over.

Welcome to a live midnight edition of "The Kelly File," everyone. I'm Megyn Kelly reporting from Manchester, New Hampshire. We still have results coming in at this hour and may have new calls before the hour is done. But it was just seconds after the polls closed when Fox News was able to project a decisive victory for Donald Trump on the GOP side. The story, what is happening in spots two through five? Well, we know that John Kasich has finished second in New Hampshire. Just a week after finding himself a distant 8th in Iowa.

And from there, it has been an all-out nail biter between Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio to figure out who's placing in the third edition. At this hour, we still do not know the answer. But we're still waiting for the votes to come in. There is the bottom of the screen. You can see the numbers. Eighty four percent of the raw vote has been counted now. And Cruz and Bush both have 11 percent. Rubio also showing at 11 now. So, it's going to be really tight. Really tight. On the other side of the aisle, self-professed socialist Democrat Bernie Sanders handily defeating Hillary Clinton, exit polling finding virtually every major demographic voted for Bernie. Including men, and women. That's how you win elections.  Here is just a taste of what the candidates had to say to their supporters tonight.

Thank you.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, I-VT., DEMOCRAITC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have sent the message that we'll echo from Wall Street to Washington from Maine to California.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

HILLARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You are the reason that we are here and you are the reason we're going to win the nomination and then, win this election together. Thank you all. Thank you so very much.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO, R-FLA., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I thank you for your votes. I thank you for the hours you gave us on the phones and the doors that you knocked, I, thank you. You will see us again because we're coming back in November to win the general election.  

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

JEB BUSH, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We can do this. But it's going to require someone with proven leadership skills and I have those skills.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

SEN. TED CRUZ, R-TEXAS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We put Washington on the run. And tonight's outcome is a victory for we, the people.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

GOV. JOHN KASICH, R-OHIO, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: To change America, to re- shine America. To restore the spirit of America and to leave no one behind. Am I right? That is what we're all fighting for.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

DONALD TRUMP, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to make America so great again. Maybe greater than ever before. I love you all. Thank you, New Hampshire. Thank you. Thank you New Hampshire. Thank you. We are going now to South Carolina we're going to win in South Carolina. I love you all. Thank you very much. Thank you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: We have got a big show for you tonight including team Fox coverage from Mike Emanuel at the Clinton Headquarters. John Roberts is with Rubio.  Doug MckElway seen with Kasich.

But we begin with our chief political correspondent campaign Carl Cameron reporting tonight from downtown Manchester where voters are still partying, Carl?

CARL CAMERON, FOX NEWS CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Megyn. Donald Trump has rewritten the playbook for the first of the nation primary.  Didn't campaign here as much as number of the other candidates, often insulted the audience with profanity and vulgarity that many thought was inappropriate for the types of audience that had kids. And yet, he has shown what it means to be Trump victorious with a huge rally and a big, big win and decisive win. And his aides and he have acknowledged that they couldn't have asked for a better down ballot result.

They believe that John Kasich in the second place is the perfect play pitch for them and to shoot out of the sky in South Carolina. Arguing that he doesn't have the resources and hasn't built up the organization and spent any time in South Carolina to be able to compete there. They see this three way tie with Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush as the perfect opportunity for Trump. Because while they're busy battling with one another, he can continue to push his make America great again rhetoric and advance his numbers, win in South Carolina and then head into the March 1st so called SEC states in the South, where he's been getting crowds in the tens of thousands, Megyn. A huge night for Trump and it's scaring the rest of the Republican field.  

KELLY: All right. So, where do we stand now in the battle for number three? It's so tight. We're showing 11 percent at this hour between Cruz, Rubio and Bush.

CAMERON: Ted Cruz has done a lot of work in South Carolina and across the south. Months ago, he was the first candidate to break out of the Iowa, New Hampshire campaign mode and go to Alabama, Tennessee, Georgia. He has been preparing for these March 1st races, knowing that he could do well in Iowa. Perhaps not top three in New Hampshire, but then ramping up again in South Carolina where he's got organization. Jeb Bush in South Carolina has the potential for muscle. Jeb Bush -- in South Carolina they still call it Bush country for the 2000 race where his brother came victorious after losing the McCain in New Hampshire and for George H.W. Bush going back into the 1988 race.

Those ground troops are still there and loyal to the Bush name and if they put their muscle against Trump, it could make the billionaire real estate developer back -- put him back on his heels. And give Jeb an opportunity to advance. Marco Rubio has to figure out how to turn around what happened in this debate the other night because even he acknowledged that that was probably one of the things that held him back tonight.  

KELLY: Carl, thank you. We're getting closer. Eighty seven percent of the raw vote totals now. Well, there was no shortage of insignificant moments in tonight's acceptance speeches but one of the moment getting the most attention was Senator Marco Rubio, you heard Carl reference it there, using his debate performance to explain why he did not take, did not do better here tonight.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MARCO: Now, we don't -- we're still watching these numbers, we'll see where it winds up but I can just tell you I know many people are disappointed, I'm disappointed tonight. I want you to understand -- but I want you to understand something. I want you to understand something. Our disappointment tonight is not on you. It's on me. It's on me. I did not, I did not do well on Saturday night, folks. Listen to this. That will never happen again.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

That will never happen again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Senior National Correspondent John Roberts (audio gap) -- headquarters, John?

JOHN ROBERTS, FOX NEWS SENIOR NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Megyn, good morning to you. It's something that a lot of people thought was probably going to happen but it was still stunning to hear coming out of Marco Rubio's mouth that he did fall on his face but he got flummox at that debate on Saturday night, that is what hurt him in the polls. I mean, take a look at the difference between the numbers in Iowa. In Iowa, 29 percent of late breaking voters went for Marco Rubio. This time around, they all went to John Kasich. He does have a chance to make it up. Another big debate coming up in Greenville, South Carolina on Saturday night.

But Marco Rubio has to have the performance of his life if he hopes to do well in South Carolina. Couple of bright spots for him. (INAUDIBLE) in the voting in New Hampshire, he did well among young voters, he was also seen as the most likely to be able to win in November. So, you can still make the argument Megyn that he is the candidate for the party to coalesce around. He is the one who can unite the party. A couple of big problems for him though. They're not worried about Kasich. Because as Carl pointed out, he's not too organized in South Carolina. They're worried about Jeb Bush, because it looks like Jeb Bush may beat him. And Jeb Bush's Super PAC has got a ton of money that they're probably going to use to slap Marco Rubio, at least try to slap him silly before South Carolina. And then the other question is, if he can't beat Ted Cruz here in New Hampshire, where can he beat Cruz -- Megyn.

KELLY: John Roberts, thank you. Well, New Jersey Governor Chris Christie put a lot of stock in New Hampshire and made Marco Rubio a key target of his attacks. But as of now, it appears he may have hurt Rubio but did not help himself. Earlier, he spoke about what is next for him.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRISTIE: Mary Pat and I spoke tonight and decided and we have decided that we're going to go home to New Jersey tomorrow and we're going to take a deep breath, see what the final results are tonight, by tomorrow morning, tomorrow afternoon, we should know. We should know what the vote count is.  And that is going to allow us to make a decision about how we move from here in this race.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Chris Stirewalt is our Fox News digital politics editor, Howie Kurtz is the host of "MediaBuzz," right here on Fox News. Good to see you both. So, you know, there is been some disappointment for them tonight and there's been some victories tonight. What is your overall take away of the evening, Chris?

CHRIS STIREWALT, FOX NEWS DIGITAL POLITICS EDITOR: The overall take away is that the Republicans are bad at having a party. I would say.

(LAUGHTER)

They struggle in that area.  

KELLY: That is a problem.  

STIREWALT: It's difficult. But I would say this, overstated the most overstated so far this cycle, Donald Trump had a pretty good showing in Iowa, he lost, it was a disappointment, he underperformed polls. And in- front of the party, I could like, well, he's gone now. We don't have to worry about this guy. It will be OK. Let's get back to killing the third place guy or let's go over here and hit each other with chaleles (ph) until we're all dead.

KELLY: We saw that at the debate on Saturday night. Everyone was taking aim at Rubio.  

STIREWALT: And just killing Rubio. Going after Rubio. And Jeb Bush went after Donald Trump one time with a bank shot. But by and large it focuses on killing Rubio. But this party does not get that it faces a serious threat and existential threat because of the populist movement inside the Republican Party says, give us what we want or we will split this thing in half and they can't figure out what they're doing.  

KELLY: OK. But Ted Cruz has apparently figured that out. Because he telegraphed what he's going to do in South Carolina. We have the sound bite where he talks about the value issue again and he's going to another values voting state. Here he is earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUBIO: Now, we go on to South Carolina. The palmetto state. And, you know, Washington Liberals may find South Carolina far less hospitable environs.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: So Washington Liberals. Not exactly New York values but back to the values issue.

HOWIE KURTZ, HOST, "MEDIABUZZ": Right. I think the Republican Party understands full well what faces the existential fair and balanced.  Trump can't quite figure out what to do about it. Cruz is really the only candidate who successfully tangle, gone tow to tow with the Donald and it hasn't completely hurt him.  

KELLY: But back off of that before the New Hampshire vote.

KURTZ: Back off of that because I think he felt like he wasn't going to do that well in New Hampshire. I think he was saving his ammunition with South Carolina. Look, Donald Trump has redefined the race. Not only did he clobbered the establishment here. Not only did he show that you can do big rallies and TV interviews every hour-and-a-half, and not to a lot of retail campaigning and still win. But he moved the terms of the debate, which saying things, that many in the journalists political stance were outrageous, for example, temporarily ban Muslims immigrants from coming into the U.S.

KELLY: They love that here.  

KURTZ: They love that here. Exit polls show two-thirds of those who voted in the Republican Party agree with that. So, he has the other candidates debating on his turf.  

KELLY: But you know what's interesting is because, we heard exactly the opposite analysis after Iowa, Stirewalt. Like, he didn't campaign, right, he just blew in on his big plane. The polls were overstated. And that's the narrative for a week.

STIREWALT: Exactly.

KELLY: And all of a sudden to me, it's like, "everything of it was wrong."

STIREWALT: Right.

KELLY: It's all wrong. It's totally new narrative.

STIREWALT: Right. Forget about everything that was said. I want to tell you, the number here, that the delegate count currently is you need 1,237 delegates to win the Republican nomination. Donald Trump has 17. Ted Cruz has ten. Marco Rubio has seven. And John Kasich has four. So, I would say this. People ought to, as President Obama would say, stop getting to we, we'd up about everything. This is going to go down the path. They are going to fight. It's going to be this stuff. I think that the traditional Republican Party, other than Ted Cruz, I agree with Howard very much. I think other than Ted Cruz and Rubio, don't get it. These other guys don't get what's going on in their party. But I would say this, there is a lot of football left to be played.  

KELLY: OK. Stand by. Interestingly, exit polls suggest that Donald Trump and John Kasich split 60 percent of the moderate Republican vote between them with Jeb Bush coming in third with that group. When Bush took to the microphones tonight, he suggested Granite State voters may have just reset the rates.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: The pundits had it all figured out last Monday night when the Iowa caucuses were complete. They said that the race was now a three-person race between two freshman senators and a reality TV star. And while the reality TV star, still doing well, it looks like you all have reset the races. And for that, I am really grateful.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Reporter Peter Doocy is live at Governor Jeb Bush's New Hampshire's campaign headquarters in Manchester. Peter?

PETER DOOCY, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Megyn, Jeb Bush declared his campaign is not dead and supporters here say they were actually pretty happy with the way that things ended here in New Hampshire for Governor Bush because they say they didn't think it was going to be possible to finish anywhere close to the top three as recently as a week-and-a-half ago. I asked Governor Bush though if now, he needs to finish first in South Carolina.  He does not think that a win there is a requirement to keep going but South Carolina is all but anybody here is talking about since about 8:00 when it became clear that tonight was not going to be his night because not only is he in a good position there but they have got a lot of money already to keep going in the National Finance Chairman Woody Johnson told me tonight that he thinks donors are going to be excited about the way things went.

Something else people were excited about here tonight that Bush finished ahead of his protege turned rival Marco Rubio. They think that Bush is on an upward trajectory. They see Rubio heading in the opposite direction.  Overall though tonight here at the Bush rally it was a very subdued scene.  The only time the crowd got really worked up was the couple of minutes the Bush was speaking at any time they sell themselves on TV -- Megyn.

KELLY: Peter, thank you. Joining me now, Marc Thiessen, Fox News contributor and former chief speechwriter for President George W. Bush.  And Rich Lowry who is editor of The National Review. Good to see you both.

Marc, let me start with you. Your take on the night?

MARC THIESSEN, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: So, thanks for clarifying the race in New Hampshire.

(LAUGHTER)

KELLY: I mean this is the place -- you know, they were going to be the place where they are going to clarify the race. We're going to have a three men race, we have a four men race coming out. Instead, it's a mess.  You've got three candidates who tied for third place. And even so, let's say Jeb Bush pulls out polls and comes in third, separating himself by half a point between the other guys. First and third in New Hampshire aren't the same thing as first and third in Iowa. In Iowa, the separation between first and third was 4.5 points. Here, it's about 23 points. So there is a massive gap between what third place means in that Iowa race, which was so close and tight in the top three. And here, there is this massive gap between Donald Trump and everybody else.  

KELLY: Rich, your take?

RICH LOWRY, EDITOR, NATIONAL REVIEW: Look, let's give the devil his due.  This was a crushing victory by Donald Trump. He over performed his polls and margin was huge. Look at the exit polls. He broke it any which way by income, by education, geographical error, yes. He won by almost every single group, no matter how you slice it. And the battle for a distant third is kind of interesting. But look, there are only two guys with actually one state so far. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump. Everyone else has been engaged in effort to spin second, third, fourth or fifth place finishes.

KELLY: At some point you have to win if you want to made the nominee.

LOWRY: Right.

KELLY: And this is what the pundits tell me. Now what we're hearing is that South Carolina is going to get ugly and fast from just polling this up. That Governor Bush planned a quote, "Scorched earth attack on Kasich and Rubio." On Kasich and Rubio, Marc. Not on Trump who is the frontrunner.  

THIESSEN: Yes. I know. It's amazing how these guys have spent so much money attacking Rubio and attacking each other. It's supposed to attacking Donald Trump who is the guy they've got to take down if any of them want to win.  

KELLY: Why? Why is that?

THIESSEN: Because they're all fighting to be the contender. The problem you have is you have the Donald Trump out there as the ultimate outsider.  Who is leading the PAC. You have Ted Cruz who is sort of behind him a little bit. And then, you've got everybody else fighting to be the alternative to Cruz and Trump. And until you get clarity, it would one of those guys emerging, if they don't, then we're going to have -- Donald Trump is going to runway with this thing.

KELLY: You know, but Rich, they say that by March 1st, Cruz could potentially gain the upper hand because 12 states will vote, this is from Politico today including six across the south where Cruz has been invested very heavily and then, two weeks later, they moved to the winner take all states, where Cruz's Super PAC mega donor has been concentrating his spending. So, as we move to South Carolina and beyond, and by the way, Trump is leading in South Carolina according to latest polls which -- Iowa but he is. Is it advantage Cruz?

LOWRY: Well, we don't know. In South Carolina will have a big role in deciding who has the advantage going into the rest of the south? Now, what is friendly to Cruz is the fact that South Carolina is a much more evangelical, a much more conservative state than New Hampshire which is much better turn to --  

KELLY: But he's not leading there. Trump is leading there by a lot.  

LOWRY: Yes. And Donald Trump is going to have a lot of appeal in South Carolina and the rest of the south, sort of the Jacksonian populist that really hits a lot of hot buttons there. But look, I agree entirely with Marc, that we have never had a situation before where a front-runner has basically been skating through, unscathed except for about a three-week period when finally the Cruz-Trump -- Cruz ended and Cruz really went after him hammering tongues. And ended up vesting him in Iowa. Then, he backed off because he knew he couldn't beat him in New Hampshire. And Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush and all the rest of these guys were engaged in this fight over second, third, fourth and fifth place.

KELLY: Uh-hm.

LOWRY: So, it's just been bizarre. But now we're going to see that Cruz- Trump fight again in South Carolina. And I believe it will be a lot like Iowa. Those two guys fighting for the top spot clearly and then someone else trying to come up the middle with this. Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush.

KELLY: Drama. All right, guys. Thank you.

THIESSEN: Thanks, Megyn.

LOWRY: Thanks, Megyn.

KELLY: Again, we can have new results any moment now on the dead heat between Cruz and Rubio for third place.

Plus, we have new details on what is next for the Clinton campaign after Bernie Sanders took New Hampshire by a huge margin. Her goal is to keep it within single digits.

And look at the bottom of the screen now. It's 86 percent of the democratic vote, in. Sixty percent, Sanders, 39, Clinton. Kirsten Powers and Robert Zimmerman when we come back.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: And tonight with what appears to be a record breaking voter turnout --

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

-- because of a huge voter turnout, and I say huge. We won.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SANDERS: Together, we have sent a message that will echo from Wall Street to Washington from Maine to California.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

And that is that the government of our great country belongs to all of the people, and not just a handful of wealthy campaign contributors and their Super PACs.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

KELLY: Well, that was the democratic primary winner here in New Hampshire Bernie Sanders, reveling in his defeat of Hillary Clinton. Mr. Sanders not only won, he won big. And remember, one year ago this week, Hillary Clinton was ahead in New Hampshire polls by 56 points. Team Clinton is already looking to downplay the loss as expected setting their sights on the next big contest. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: Now, we take this campaign to the entire country. We're going to fight for every vote and every state.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

People have every right to be angry. But they're also hungry -- they're hungry for solutions. What are we going to do?

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

Wall Street can never again be allowed to once again threat Main Street and I will fight to rein in Wall Street. And you know, what? I know how to do it.  

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

KELLY: Mike Emanuel is live at Clinton Headquarters in Hooksett, New Hampshire. Mike?

MIKE EMANUEL, FOX NEWS CHIEF CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Hi, Megyn.  Hillary Clinton said something that has become painfully obvious to her and her supporters, that she has a lot of work to do particularly when it comes to young people. The data shows that Hillary Clinton does well with older voters in places like Iowa and New Hampshire. People who remember her from her days as First Lady of the United States but the data also shows that Hillary Clinton is getting walloped when it comes to voters under 30 years of age. And so, that is what she's talking about working on as the campaign moves forward. The Clintons are going home to New York and then there will be a critical debate Thursday night in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.  The Clinton campaign is eager to turn the page on the calendar, to March when they say that the calendar reflects a lot of states, where they think they are better positioned with more diversity to win -- Megyn.  

KELLY: Mike, thank you. Well, as Bernie Sanders celebrated his victory, team Hillary released a long memo explaining her loss. Joining us to discuss is Kirsten Powers, Fox News contributor and USA Today columnist.  Also Robert Zimmerman who is a Democratic National Committee member from New York, a Clinton supporter and co-founder of Zimmerman/Edelson Public Relations. Let me start with you Robert as a Clinton supporter.  

ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, CLINTON SUPPORTER: Sure. Good evening, Megyn.  

KELLY: Look at those numbers. So, she right now is losing to him by 21 points. Her goal was to keep it within single digits. What does it say that she fell short of the goal?

ZIMMERMAN: Well, look, there is no question, this was a significant victory for Senator Sanders. And it was a disappointing evening for the Clinton campaign. And of course as Hillary Clinton proud supporter, I'm disappointed as well. But you can't let this primary contest define the campaign any more than George W. Bush or Barack Obama or Bill Clinton is losing New Hampshire. Stopped them from winning ultimately the nomination and the presidency. What really matters is that when you move beyond New Hampshire and get into more diverse states like South Carolina that reflect the Democratic Party, reflect the face of our nation, she's winning there 68 percent to 30 percent. And amongst women 67 percent to 31 percent.

KELLY: Uh-hm.

ZIMMERMAN: She has a message that resonates, way beyond just a homogenous environment of New Hampshire.

KELLY: It didn't resonate in New Hampshire but it didn't resonate with anybody -- Kirsten.  

KIRSTEN POWERS, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Right. She lost every demographic group except for people who made more than $200,000 and people 65 and older. So he was winning in every single demographic group. And look, she may be winning women right now in South Carolina because we're not there yet. But she got handedly vetted among women and by Sanders tonight. I mean, these should be the people that should be behind her. That the people that were behind her in '08. And she was winning them and they're not behind her.

KELLY: Why?

POWERS: And so, I think that, well, look, I think Bernie Sanders has a message that really resonates. And they're looking for somebody who is going to change the system and shake up the system. If you look at both people who won tonight, they have a lot in common actually. They talk about a lot of the same kinds of things. They'll talk about, we're not going to be the policeman of the world. We have bad trade deals. We aren't going to have these trade deals anymore. You're getting a raw deal.  The political class is screwing you over. You know, they're giving very similar messages and I think that these are messages that both parties are -- it's really resonating with both parties.

KELLY: Go ahead, Robert.  

ZIMMERMAN: I think it's important to try to put this into perspective.  New Hampshire has its own very unique libertarian economic view of the world. The live free and die state. Hillary Clinton won amongst women in Iowa and she is winning nationally amongst women solidly as well. So I would be very careful not to let this define the election. Obviously it's a tough night but this tough night does not anyway determine the ballot for the nomination.

KELLY: That is the thing, Kirsten. Wouldn't you -- if you had to choose being Bernie Sanders or being Hillary Clinton, would you rather be Hillary Clinton right now at this point in the race even though he won because if you look at the polls going forward --

ZIMMERMAN: If the race were determined in New Hampshire, you'd be right.  We got 48 states to go --  

KELLY: That is for Kirsten.

(LAUGHTER)

ZIMMERMAN: -- 56 percent of the delegates are being chosen in March.

KELLY: All right. Go ahead, Kirsten.

POWERS: Yes. I mean, I don't know, because I think that she should have, it's true that this was sort of his home turf with this neighboring state but she got beat really handily in a state that she won before. There has been, you know, has a long history with. And I would be concerned if I was her, frankly. It doesn't mean --  

KELLY: Is she going to make some changes?

POWERS: I wouldn't be surprised if she made changes to her campaign.  Because I think based on talking to people who, you know, who are close to her campaign, they say that they feel that they should have been more aggressive with Bernie Sanders, that they should have taken him as a serious threat, they should, you know, really try to take him out earlier rather than letting gained so much esteem.

ZIMMERMAN: Let's be realistic.

KELLY: Yes.

ZIMMERMAN: Hillary Clinton has to work much harder and she will work much harder reaching out to younger people and introducing herself to a younger audiences in the same way the Sanders campaign has got to reach out to a much more diverse demographic in the Democratic Party.

KELLY: She said that tonight. I mean, she acknowledging she has work to do with that. But how could she not? Because look at the numbers. Thirty nine to 60. He got to acknowledge it's true.

(CROSSTALK)

I got to go. It's over between us. I love you.

ZIMMERMAN: Good to be with you.

KELLY: Goodbye.

OK. Kirsten, good to see you too.  

POWERS: You too.

KELLY: Well, we're continuing to poll new vote totals. Keep an eye on the bottom of your screen. We're hoping a final result on the showdown between Rubio, Cruz and Bush. As Cruz appears to be gaining a little ground if he polls out to third place here in New Hampshire. He'll be celebrating that.

Plus, Guy Benson and Roger Stone are next on the controversial Donald Trump proposal that is resonating with a huge majority of New Hampshire Republicans. Don't go away.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: So, New Hampshire, I want to thank you. We love you. We're going to be back a lot. We're not going to forget you. You started it, remember, you started it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We're going to have strong, incredible voters and people are going to come into our country but they're going to come into our country legally, they're going to come in legally. We're going to build a wall.  It's going to be built.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

It's not even, believe it or not, it's not even a difficult thing to do.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: That was New Hampshire primary winner Donald Trump tonight rallying his supporters over an issue they care deeply about, immigration. And it's not just the Trump voters. The exit polls showing 64 percent of all New Hampshire Republican primary voters support Trump's proposal to temporarily ban Muslims who are not U.S. citizens from entering the U.S.

Joining me now Guy Benson who is a Fox News contributor and co-author of the book, "End of Discussion" and Roger Stone who is a former political advisor to Donald Trump and former advisor to President Richard Nixon.  Great to see you both.

So, Guy, they support him on immigration, they support him on the ban of Muslims, they support him across the board. He won them on every issue.  And the question is, whether that enthusiasm for Donald Trump you think translates out of New Hampshire?

GUY BENSON, CO-AUTHOR, "END OF DISCUSSION": Absolutely does. And if you look at numbers in South Carolina, arguably he's in a stronger position going down there. So, when the first round of exit polls came out tonight, we saw nearly two thirds of Republicans agreeing with the Muslim ban, 50 percent of Republican voters saying that they thought betrayed by their own party.

KELLY: Uh-hm.

BENSON: It became clear this was not going to be a Trump night. This is going to be a big Trump night. And when the final round of exit polls were finally put to bed, we went through all of them, Trump won virtually every single demographic across every single category. Most of them by double digits. This was a jaw dropping performance by Trump and, you know, it was aided of course by the splintered field and the rest of the party but he has a full head of steam heading South to the palmetto state.  

KELLY: Because Roger, now Trump is very well positioned. Because it may be 70 percent of the voters here in New Hampshire didn't want Donald Trump.  But there is like 40 candidates splitting that 70 percent. And so as long as Trump can keep them fractured, he's well positioned.  

ROGER STONE, FORMER ADVISOR TO PRESIDENT NIXON: Well, 34 percent in an eight-person field is a performance that can only be called huge. And among for example the very conservative voters, who he lost among in Iowa, he thumped Ted Cruz among moderates, essentially a slight edge over John Kasich. Among high school graduates and less, overwhelming support. Among post graduates, and college graduates, once again Trump triumphs. So, he goes into South Carolina, a state with a great military tradition, a great conservative tradition as a proponent of a stronger military with a populist message that he is un-beholden to any special interest. You can't buy Trump. You can't bully Trump. You can't influence Trump. This is his Trump card, as it were. And I think it will work in South Carolina as it worked in New Hampshire, tonight.  

KELLY: Go ahead, Guy.

BENSON: Megyn, last week the three of us were all together on your show talking about Iowa. And I made two points. I said Trump underperformed his public polling in Iowa which was a red flag for him. And I also said that the political laws of physic do apply to Donald Trump because of ground game. Well, tonight I'm going to tell you that he over performed his polling in New Hampshire. And in a state that supposedly prices retail campaigning, master -- policy specifics, Donald Trump proved that there are certain waiver clauses for him. He did far fewer events in this state than any of his rivals.

KELLY: Uh-hm.

BENSON: And he still won a dominant victory. Those facts should scare anyone not named Donald Trump in this race.  

KELLY: So, Roger, what does Donald Trump do now about Ted Cruz who does have a formidable ground game and is set up in the next wave of states that we're going to go to?

STONE: Well, it's kind of interesting. South Carolina was actually set ahead of the other southern primaries in 1980 by my longtime friend and colleague, Lee Atwater, we worked together in the Reagan campaign. It was meant to be the gateway to the South. So, in order for Ted Cruz to score post South Carolina, he's got the score in South Carolina. And I think he's going to come up against Donald Trump there. I think Trump will defeat Cruz. And if you look at any of those Southern primaries today, post-South Carolina, those are the states in which Trump has his largest polling margin. So, I feel good. I probably don't think Ted Cruz is Donald Trump's problem in South Carolina. I think the intermural among the establishment candidates, and the continued split field put Donald Trump in a very strong position to go to board.  

KELLY: Uh-hm. And this is the ideal result for him. Because the person who came in second, A, didn't come in anywhere near of him. B, you know, wasn't an establishment guy who doesn't really have much of a game outside of New Hampshire according to the pundits we've listened to tonight. Guy, good to see you. Roger, you too.

And now, we go to Governor John Kasich's New Hampshire campaign headquarters. The Governor spent more time campaigning in New Hampshire than any other candidates. And tonight he told supporters that the people of New Hampshire have changed him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KASICH: The people of New Hampshire have taught me a lesson. And from this day forward, I'm going to go slower and spend my time listening and healing and helping and bringing people together.

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Correspondent Doug MckElway is live at Kasich Headquarters in Concord. Doug?

DOUG MCKELWAY, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Megyn. You know if you hadn't seen the final tally, the graphics on the TV screen tonight, you came into this room when it was packed with people. You would have thought for all the world that John Kasich had won this thing out and out. As it turned out, this second place finish garnered less than half of what had Trump compiled but he did the minimum of what he needed to do. He lives to fight another day and that over day has already begun. He has boarded the charter plane for South Carolina. His first speaking engagement set for noon tomorrow, and Mount Pleasant in South Carolina just outside of Charleston. He spoke tonight like a winner. Even bypassing any criticism of Donald Trump. To file this zinger at Bernie Sanders. Listen up.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KASICH: Bernie talked so long I thought he was going to hit his 77th birthday before he got off the stage.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MCKELWAY: The reality for Kasich is that he has a monumental hurdle to overcome. While he's been focused solely as you just said on New Hampshire, Trump has been making routine trips down south to South Carolina, he's got gobs of money should he need to tap into that, which he hasn't. And then you got Rubio, Cruz, and Bush who are bunch up right behind them. All of whom are better funded and better organized in that part of the country -- Megyn.

KELLY: Doug McKelway, thank you.

Just ahead, new answers on why Trump and Sanders won tonight when pollster Frank Luntz joins us with some predictions for what's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CRUZ: The voters will have a choice, do we want a campaign conservative?  Someone who talks a good game but hasn't walk the walk. Or do we want a consistent conservative with a proven record?

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Well, that was Senator Ted Cruz tonight and his New Hampshire campaign headquarters. Mr. Cruz performed above as well as the polls predicted. And according to the numbers we're seeing now, still could come in third in this state. Some candidates did better. Some worst. We're going to take a look at the exit polls for answers on why.

Frank Luntz, the CEO of Luntz Global and author of "What Americans Really Want, Really," look at this, Frankie. He is positioned as of now with about 90 percent of the vote counted to come in third. So, we'll have the first place and a third place, and if these numbers hold, Marco Rubio could come in fifth.  

FRANK LUNTZ, CEO, LUNTZ GLOBAL: Now, this is horrible for Rubio and it goes back to the debate on Saturday night. Make no mistake. First, Republicans are watching every one of these debates to make the decisions.  Second, they come to polling place still not sure they're making the right decision. And third, we're looking at the exit polling numbers, half of the GOP fields and I used these words specifically, betrayed by Republicans in Washington and that is why Trump does so well. And frankly why Cruz did so well in a state that he wasn't supposed to be effective. This was not an evangelical state. That is South Carolina.

KELLY: Uh-hm.

LUNTZ: This is a state that believes in conservative economics. It should have been good for Rubio, it should have been good for the governors. But Rubio's performance last Saturday, if he doesn't fix that, that he will not make it beyond Super Tuesday.  

KELLY: Is he on the right path with his I take it responsibility, that was my fault. I won't let it happen again.

LUNTZ: Two things tonight surprised me. One is Rubio's candor and his humility which you don't often see in a campaign.  

KELLY: Took him a while.  

LUNTZ: And second is John Kasich, who showed his heart as he did in the very first debate. If you remember, we had a couple of examples through this show where Kasich just made voters angry. He interrupted all the time, he was rude. Over the last two debates, he's been perfect and tonight was even better. He showed his heart and watched his national numbers. They're going to go up.  

KELLY: What do you think is going to happen now? Because South Carolina has a big evangelical core, but you know, notwithstanding that.  Conventional wisdom would be the Cruz would win that as he did in Iowa but Trump is leading in South Carolina right now.

LUNTZ: He's leading significantly. And I'm watching Trump the vote to see how it parallels the polling. And as a previous guest said, he actually outperformed his polling numbers. It's not that he has an organization, is that he has people who were so passionate, so devoted to voting, and the voting against the establishment which gives them the reason to come out in the snow and the rain and the whatever. So, Trump enter South Carolina clearly in the lead but he still got to perform well in the upcoming debate. And Cruz has got every opportunity because the makeup of the electorate is perfect for a Ted Cruz candidacy.  

KELLY: How does the language that we saw from Trump especially in recent days play in South Carolina? Here is the latest clip which got Trump in some trouble among the pundits. Among the New Hampshire voters not so much. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: And he said, well, he's concerned about the answer because some people. She just said a terrible thing. You know what she just said?  Shouted out because I don't want to (bleep). Okay. You're not allowed to say, and I never expect to hear that from you again. She said I never expected to hear that from you again. She said he's a (bleep) --

(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: It's insane that he said it. Now, it's okay in New Hampshire.  Because this is not a socially conservative state but that would play horribly in South Carolina.

KELLY: You're saying a word that begins with P which is another word for cat.

LUNTZ: So, why can't we have that conversation? This is my challenge to every network. If a presidential candidate can articulate that word and millions of Americans see it --

KELLY: Because I don't talk like that.

LUNTZ: Whether you talk about like that, why bleep --

KELLY: Because some of us are not comfortable saying that kind of thing.

LUNTZ: You're not to say it but you bleep it out. Some of us may feel uncomfortable hearing it. It's what a presidential candidate says. What I'm doing about Donald Trump is never to underestimate him. Always pay attention to what he's saying and even if I think he's gone too far, for some Americans he hasn't gone far enough.  

KELLY: Uh-hm. Frank, great to see you.

LUNTZ: Thank you.

KELLY: As always. We'll be right back with more from Marc Thiessen, Chris Stirewalt and Howie Kurtz and the battle shaping up for South Carolina.  Look at them. Handsome group.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: As of this moment, 92 percent of the voters in. We still don't know who will wind up in third, fourth or fifth place here in New Hampshire. But you can see that Ted Cruz is still well positioned to take third.

Joining us now with their final thought, Chris Stirewalt, Marc Thiessen, and Howie Kurtz. Chris, tonight there was a piece out on Bloomberg. It's by an ATI (ph) fellow.

STIREWALT: Umm.

KELLY: The headline is, what is the anti-Trump strategy now? And this Remesh Pemeru (ph) who is freaking out.

(LAUGHTER)

And the other Republicans don't have a plan to stop them. Let me give that to you actually Marc because --

THIESSEN: Well, it's fascinating because as we've talked earlier, they've been all attacking Marco Rubio. It's freaked out. There's been this big fight amongst the people in the middle of the PAC. And nobody isn't going after him. And now you'll have an interesting dynamic going into South Carolina. Because you have, for the first time in eight years, the return of George, W. Bush to the campaign trail. He's supposedly going to go out and campaign for his brother. What does that do? I mean, that's the fascinating dynamic because George W. Bush is incredibly popular.  Especially in South Carolina. It's 77 percent approval amongst Republicans. So, does Donald Trump attack him? He has when he hasn't been there. Does he try to engage him? If he does, that could backfire on him.  So, it would be very interesting to see what happens.

KELLY: Howie?

KURTZ: The Trump haters, like Arianna Huffington, whose website attacked the voters up New Hampshire as racist and sexist, that's always a good look. It needs to try to concentrate on why Trump won big here. And it's kind of an irony because I don't want to write off Marco Rubio because if we got 2,000 more voters, he would have finish third. We'd all be saying, what a cool comeback it was. But heading to South Carolina, Ted Cruz and Donald Trump, the two candidates most despised by the beltway establishment are heading to a head to head confrontation, it's going to be ugly.  They're already seeing signals of that. And that's going to be the ball game. And nobody in the GOP establishment wants either of these guys.

KELLY: Go ahead, Chris,

STIREWALT: Look, it is impossibly early in this process. And we're just now starting to see the shape of things to come. And the shape of things to come, and the most important, if there's one most important thing that we saw in New Hampshire tonight, is that Donald Trump did what he said he was going to do. He got the shares of votes and more that polls said that he was going to deliver. This is the new normal. This is the world that they live in. That's South Carolina is going to be harder because this is an election that took place in New Hampshire among Republicans and Independents. South Carolina would just be Republicans. So things will be a little tougher for Trump there. But the Republicans have to face facts that they have a real insurgency that's going out here. It's funded. It's famous and it's not going away on its own.

KELLY: And Ted, Cruz, too is another man hated by the establishment or whatever the establishment is. And he's doing very well too. I mean, to finish first and now potentially third here in New Hampshire, you can't kick Cruz out, no matter what we've seen tonight with Trump.  

THIESSEN: No, he's very serious. I mean, Ted Cruz is a contender for this nomination. So, Donald Trump is, without a doubt, the front-runner. And we'll see if anybody emerges.

KURTZ: This is as good as a reality TV show.

(LAUGHTER)

KELLY: It's fascinating from a news perspective.

You guys, thank you very much. Great job. Tonight and always, we appreciate it. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Still too close to call when it comes to third place in this race but Donald Trump with the decisive victory here in New Hampshire. Did New Hampshire voters get it right? And what do you think is going to happen in South Carolina? Go to Facebook.com/thekellyfile. Let me know your thoughts. Thank you so much for watching us tonight. This is "The Kelly File" and I'm Megyn Kelly. We'll see you tomorrow at 9:00.   

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