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Hannity

Winners and losers from the Iowa caucuses

This is a rush transcript from "Hannity," February 2, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

SEAN HANNITY, HOST:  And welcome to "Hannity" and this is a Fox News Alert.  The results from Iowa are now in.  Fox News is projecting that Texas Senator Ted Cruz is the winner of the Republican Iowa caucuses with almost 28 percent of the vote.  Donald Trump in second with 24 percent, Senator Marco Rubio in third place with 23percent.  

And on the Democratic side at this hour, the caucuses are still too close to call, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders now in a dead heat.  

Earlier tonight after his big win, Senator Cruz celebrated with his supporters in the Hawkeye state.  Let's take a look.  

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ, R-TEXAS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  God bless the great state of Iowa.  Tonight is a victory for the grassroots.  Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation.  And the next president of the United States will not be chosen by the media, will not be chosen by the lobbyists, will not be chosen by the Washington establishment.  But will be chosen by the most incredible, powerful force, where all sovereignty resides in our nation by we the people, the American people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY:  Joining us now with a reaction from The Washington Times, Charles Hurt, Fox News contributor Kirsten Powers, and Fox News legal analyst Peter Johnson Jr.  Welcome you all.

What a night.  So many different story lines, one, the media and the polls wrong again.  Just like in 2000, 2004, 2008.  Two, if you add up Trump and Cruz and Carson, you've got over 60 percent of Republicans, an anti- establishment night, an insurgency year this is turning into and three, Hillary the big loser of the night, Peter Johnson Jr.?

PETER JOHNSON JR., FOX NEWS LEGAL ANALYST:  Yeah, I think you're hitting a lot of the points here.  We're seeing a three-person race at this point, big night for Marco Rubio, big night for Ted Cruz.  Bad night for Donald Trump proved that he's not what the press was saying that he was.  He is invincible.  He may not be indomitable.  He is vulnerable.  He's still a great candidate and a viable candidate, but he's got his problems going forward.  And obviously, he made some mistakes in terms of skipping the Fox debate and some other tactical issues.  So, we've seen Trump, the bubble has burst tonight.  

HANNITY:  I don't know if I -- I might disagree with you, Peter.  I would actually say the Republicans, the top three all had a big win in some way.  
Here's my analysis.  All right, Ted Cruz proves hard work pays off.  He does the full Grassley, all 99 counties, retail politics pays off.  

Trump on paper, in a state that Huckabee and Santorum won, probably I think his analysis was right.  He probably didn't get the advice from political experts, don't go to Iowa.  It's probably a hard state for you to win.  And third, I'd say yeah, Marco Rubio outperformed all expectations and all the poll numbers. Big win for him in that regard. What is your take?

JOHNSON:  I would just say, there's a difference between fandom and supporters.  A lot of people will go see Donald Trump at a rally because they loved his television show, they like what he has to say.  But the Cruz folks, the Rubio folks, those people were supporters.  They came out and they worked this election.  And the results show.  The results show.

HANNITY:  Yeah no, absolutely, listen, organization still matters.  I think, you know, Charles, we've got to admit here, you know, Iowa is a retail political state, and people expect to be courted and have their -- for you to shake their hands and kiss their babies and go to their meetings and have coffee in their coffee shops.  And for the most part, Trump defied that, let's say, typical model or old-fashioned model.  

CHARLES HURT, THE WASHINGTON TIMES:  Sure. And, you know, Ted Cruz's victory tonight, you cannot take it away from him.  It's tremendous.

HANNITY:  Agreed.  

HURT:  He got a record number of - you know, in history of Republican caucusgoers.  So, it's tremendous.  But the flip side of it is, and you touched on this, you know, look at the, you know, the Iowa GOP caucusgoers don't have a terrific record in the past of picking the eventual winner.  
And the last few times you have Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee.  And Ted Cruz very much played, you know, used their playbook.  

As Peter had said, huge ground game.  He went all in there.  You know, courted -- went, you know, statewide.  And ultimately had to win, and also used -- was very overtly religious about courting evangelical voters. And so, while it's a tremendous victory, if you look back at the past couple, you know, the past 16 years, it doesn't necessarily translate into places like New Hampshire and then going forward.  

HANNITY:  But you know what? He did show hard work pays off.  

HURT:  Yes.  

HANNITY:  Going to all 99 counties pays off.  Retail politics works.  And he's still in second in New Hampshire.  Now it'll be interesting to see polls in the next two or three days.  Although, I think quoting polls should be a thing of the past.  Kerstin, there's no doubt in my mind, the biggest loser tonight is Hillary Clinton.  She could spin it any way she wants.  What I saw tonight was a very angry candidate, very frustrated.  

Ed Henry reporting that, she was posted to a rope line.  It was supposed to be a big celebration.  And then she literally shifts radically to the left on gay rights, on free tuition, on Obamacare.  I mean, she sounded like Bernie Sanders in her speech, except an angrier, insincere version.  

KIRSTEN POWERS, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR:  Yeah, I agree with almost everything that you said.  So, first of all she can't celebrate because the results haven't been, you know, really called yet.  So there's nothing to celebrate.  But here is the thing.  In the same way that Ted Cruz had to win Iowa, Bernie Sanders really had to win Iowa. Hillary, this is not a state that is built for Hillary because it was an extreme -- it's already an extremely liberal electorate in a normal caucus.  And if you look at the numbers that we've had tonight, you have 10 percent more people identifying as very liberal than you even had in 2008.  

So, it was already a very liberal electorate, maybe even more liberal.  You have 43 percent of likely caucusgoers had identified in a recent poll as -- themselves as socialists.  So, these are people that are predisposed to Bernie Sanders.  And Hillary Clinton had to do is, she kind of had to hold him at bay and it really was Bernie's to lose.  

So, I don't think you can read so much into this in terms of how this is going to affect Hillary down the road.  Because this is, and again -- and the other thing is, this is an extremely white state.  And she does much better, she is going to end up doing much better probably with African- American voters.  And so I think -- I really think you can over read this, Shawn, because you, you know, you hate Hillary.  

HANNITY:  No, it's not that I hate Hillary.  And I'll tell you what.  When you compare the speeches tonight, Peter Johnson Jr., Bernie Sanders to me, he's a true believer.  He's the real deal.  He's a socialist.  Hillary, angry, shifting on the fly, seeming to be the politician, she'll become whatever she needs to be to win.  And I don't think anger and switching your opinions and your core values is going to win you the race in the long run.  

JOHNSON:  I think older and younger voters both, even when they don't agree with Bernie Sanders, and I vigorously disagree, and I know you do, they say there is an honesty about him.  There's an integrity in terms of his beliefs, no matter how misguided, there's a fervor, there's a deep decency that he exemplifies.  There's a belief system that transcends money and power and connections and e-mails, and people say, "Yeah, that's the America that I want," as much as he is misguided.  

I saw the same thing in Rubio's speech tonight.  A young vital guy, a guy strong enough to say, "I'm proud of my immigrant roots even when some candidates want to attack immigrants."  I see this as the face of a new Republican party that's shaking out tonight.  

HANNITY:  Yeah.  

JOHNSON:  Two of the top three Hispanic Americans who pulled themselves up by their bootstraps.  That's the Republican Party.  That's not the Democratic Party.  

HANNITY:  Well said.  

JOHNSON:  That's what I saw tonight.  

HANNITY:  And Charles, you've been pretty much a strong supporter of Donald Trump.  I've got to believe now, especially after New Hampshire, that a lot of these candidates are going to begin to drop out.  It seems to me, the establishment will coalesce around Marco Rubio.  It's interesting to me because he was a tea party favorite back in 2010.  And but for comprehensive immigration reform, I think he would've had a lot more support from conservatives.  But that's been a big obstacle for him.  

HURT:  Yeah, and of course, that's also going to be a very big problem for Ted Cruz going forward.  If the establishment does start pressuring some of the other candidates to get out so that that money and that support can go behind some establishment person, I think that that -- it's not going to hurt just Donald Trump, it's going hurt Ted Cruz as well.  But going back to something -- you know, you were talking about how so many people got everything wrong here.  One of my favorite things that got wrong that we saw tonight that was clearly wrong was that, very gracious concession speech that Donald Trump gave.  

Everyone, every single one, everybody in the media predicted that if he suffered a single little loss somewhere, he would lose it.  He couldn't handle it.  Everything would fall apart.  And that's not at all what happened.  He walked out there.  He thanked Iowa.  He said he was honored to come in second place.  And he reminded people that he had no business coming in second place which is true.  He had no business coming in second place in Iowa, yet he did.  

HANNITY:  You know, Peter, I actually agree with Charles on this.  

JOHNSON:  I do too.  

HANNITY:  Because on paper, it's not a state that I think anyone would've predicted that he would even be competing in.  

JOHNSON:  It's incredible that he did as well as he did coming from where he started.  And the Donald Trump that I saw tonight is the Donald Trump that I know well and that I like.  I represented Donald Trump.  I disagree with him on a lot of things that he's done and that he said.  But I do believe that he has the good of the country in mind.  And if he can start to talk about policies and facts and proposals and a way forward, then he can win this nomination.  If he doesn't, he will lose.  And this is the breaking point from now.  

HANNITY:  Would you say, Peter, two improvements that his campaign could make, one is organization.  Ted Cruz had a phenomenal organization.  

JOHNSON:  Right.

HANNITY:  If he duplicates that in New Hampshire and South Carolina, he will be a formidable candidate.  If Rubio continues this, he will be formidable. It seems to me, organization was lacking for trump in Iowa, number one.  And number two, yeah, I agree with both you guys.  That's a side of Trump that's humble, there was empathy there, a little humility, and a graciousness that I think would serve him well if he continues it.  

JOHNSON:  Personally, there's a kindness and there's a generosity about him in so many things that people haven't seen, that it hasn't come through, all that being said, he lost in the state of Iowa, as much as he said that he was going to win.  And all the polls were wrong.  And a lot of the people who said that they were going to vote for him didn't for whatever reason.  They need to understand why they didn't.  

HANNITY:  Yeah, certainly a big night for Ted Cruz by winning.  New Hampshire is now, what, a week from today.  If we're looking at the real hours Eastern Time, all right, I've got one last question for Kerstin because Kerstin, I want to go back.  Whether it's 49.8 for Hillary and 49.6 for Bernie Sanders, how do you say that that's a win when she was the front-runner the entire time?  There was an expectation that she'd run away with this?  

POWERS:  Well, there was an expectation before Bernie Sanders really became a serious candidate and took off.  And she has, you know, an opponent.  And if you're going to look at this state, this is a state that is much more favorable to Bernie Sanders in a million different ways.  I mean, I listed them. I didn't even get into all the different -- there are many other ways that it favors him.  

And so, I think if you look at this state, it's not representative of most other states and then, certainly not the states that are going to be coming after New Hampshire.  And I think that he should've won.  In the same way I think that, you know, I think on the Republican side, I don't think Donald Trump needed to win here.  

I think if you had one, it would have been a huge deal. It would have been a game changer to a certain extent, but he didn't need to win. Ted Cruz needed to win because this state is built for Ted Cruz and Ted Cruz had poured everything into it.  So, you know, I think she through organization was able to kind of hold him at bay.  But I don't think this was a state, running against him, where she was thrown a farewell.  

HANNITY:  All right guys.  Thanks for being with us and staying up late.  
We appreciate it.  

POWERS:  Thank you.  

HANNITY:  Coming up, we'll have a lot more analysis on the breaking news tonight out of Iowa.  Senator Ted Cruz, he comes out on top of the Republicans on the Democratic side at this hour, the race still too close to call between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. We'll check in with Monica Crowley, Doug Schoen.  They'll weigh in next as we continue.  

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  I stand here tonight, breathing a big sigh of relief. Thank you, Iowa.  I will keep fighting for you.  I will always work to achieve the America that I believe in, where the promise of that dream that we hold out to our children and our grandchildren never fade but inspires generations to come.  Join me.  Let's go win the nominations.  Thank you all and god bless you!

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS, I-VT.,  DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  If I think about what happened tonight, I think the people of Iowa have sent a very profound message to the political establishment, to the economic establishment, and by the way, to the media establishment.  That is, given the enormous crises facing our country.  It is just too late for establishment politics and establishment economics.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY:  All right, that was Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders addressing their supporters earlier tonight.  At this hour, the Iowa dramatic caucuses still too close to call with the candidates now in a virtual tie.  

Joining us now, Fox News contributors Monica Crowley, Doug Schoen, Doug, you know, I watched Bernie Sanders.  And when do I see a guy that's sincere and honest and true to his beliefs, it's coming from his heart.  Now, he's wrong on everything and he's a socialist.  

And I watched Hillary Clinton, an angry politician, upset she didn't win.  And then she makes this dramatic shift tonight.  Gay rights, abortion, ObamaCare, free college, global warping, and she tries to sound like Bernie Sanders.

DOUG SCHOEN, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR:  Well, all true.  Look, the key tonight is she did not lose.  It's a tie.  Bernie Sanders had a good night.  But she was not rebuked.  

HANNITY:  Doug, this is a bad night for her. She lost.

SCHOEN:  Sean ...

HANNITY:  Let me help you.  She lost.  

SCHOEN:  Sean, I don't need the help.  But trust me.  By not losing, she is able to maintain her firewall in the south.  This is good news for her, a lot better than a lot of people expected when they saw the turnout numbers.  

HANNITY:  Monica, I disagree with our friend Doug.  I think this is a huge loss for Hillary.  I don't care how you spin it.  They did not think Bernie Sanders would take Iowa.  

MONICA CROWLEY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTORS:  Correct.  I mean, look.  This fact that Bernie Sanders was able to fight Hilary Clinton to a tie, to a statistical draw in the state of Iowa is an astonishing achievement for Bernie Sanders.  After all, he's a 74 year old disheveled socialist.  And he basically tied wit the prohibitive favorite.  

Remember, Sean, 12 months ago, Hillary Clinton was leading Bernie Sanders by a whopping 50 points.  And tonight it's too close to call.  She will go in to New Hampshire a very wounded and bloodied candidate.  He is going to clobber her.  

HANNITY:  And get killed.  

CROWLEY:  Yes, he's going to clobber her in the state of New Hampshire.  
Right, so, you know, the point is, that they had to wound her at the polls, weaken her going into the south.  And then, you know, with the FBI investigation hanging over her head, they could go in for the coup de grace.  

HANNITY:  All right, let's go to the Republican side.  Doug, let's get your take.  

SCHOEN:  Sure.  

HANNITY:  Ted Cruz worked the hardest.  Had the best organization, did the full Grassley, 99 counties and shook every hand, played retail politics.  
Hard work pays off for him.  Now, analysis, does he take that moment into New Hampshire?  

SCHOEN:  I think he will.  There's a couple of buts.  First, will Donald Trump be able to maintain the level of support he's had?  I'm not sure if he will.  And second, the big question is, will Marco Rubio be able to consolidate the so-called establishment Republican support that's been divided three or four-ways and become a real alternative to either Cruz or Trump, more likely Cruz.  That to me is the big question.  

HANNITY:  You know, but Monica, as I stated at the beginning of the show, over 60 percent of the vote in Iowa, which by the way reflected the polls that show the Republicans feel betrayed by Washington Republicans, over 60 percent of that vote went to insurgency candidates.  

CROWLEY:  Yeah.  

HANNITY:  So I'm, you know, to me, if that model continues, even if the establishment coalesces around Marco, does that work?  

CROWLEY:  Well, there's a huge lesson coming out of Iowa.  Sean, you hit the nail on the head.  A little over 60 percent went for anti-establishment candidates.  That is Cruz, Trump, and Ben Carson who got almost 10 percent.  And there, I think he was a drag on Ted Cruz.  Whereas Marco Rubio perhaps, in the strong third place finish was perhaps a drag on Donald Trump.  Look, New Hampshire is a much more favorable state for Donald Trump.  So, I don't think the game is over quite yet.  

But this win for Ted Cruz was huge.  It was well-deserved.  It was well earned.  He established a traditional and very effective ground game, infrastructure, organization, and it paid off.  But I think there's something bigger going on here, Sean.  And it gets to your question.  

I think is the big lesson tonight is that the establishment, frankly, on both sides, is losing power and control.  Ted Cruz stood up to them.  And in particular, the all-powerful ethanol lobby in Iowa, and he won.  That's a lesson for Ted Cruz to carry forth, Donald Trump to carry forth and anybody else who really wants to continue to be viable in this race.  

HANNITY:  And Doug, if I'm going to look down the line here, I think we're going to have a general election where America's going to have a very clear choice.  It's going to be a conservative versus a radical left socialist or one that wants to be one.  So, this is going to be a choice election, probably the likes of which we've not seen, maybe since 1980.  

SCHOEN:  Well, that is certainly the case.  I would say from Hillary Clinton and the Clinton camp's point of view, they would much prefer to run against Ted Cruz than Donald Trump.  So, this was in that sense, good news also for the Clintons.  

CROWLEY:  You know what's interesting too, Sean, when I was listening in particular to Marco Rubio, Donald Trump, and I think Ted Cruz also, they said, "Well, we're going to defeat the Democrats whether the Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, or whomever."  And I just think that is a very important point to make because there is this huge sword of Damocles hanging over Hillary Clinton with the FBI scandal.  

Bernie Sanders, you know, even though he pulled out this fantastic success tonight, I don't think he can win a general election. So, I think the jury is still out on the Democrats.  The ultimate nominee may be  neither of these two.  

HANNITY:  I think you're probably right.  All right, we got a lot more to come.  The amazing thing's, we're only a week away from New Hampshire.  Now it moves very, very quickly.  Thank you both for being with us.  

SCHOEN:  Thank you.  

CROWLEY:  Thanks Sean.  

HANNITY:  And coming up, more reactions and analysis to the big political news tonight out of Iowa.  We'll check in with Steve Hayes, Penny Lee, Geraldo Rivera.  That's next as this edition of "Hannity" continues.  

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  On June 16th, when we started this journey, there were 17 candidates.  I was told by everybody, do not go to Iowa.  You could never finish even in the top 10.  And I said, "But I have friends in Iowa. I know a lot of people in Iowa. I think they'll really like me. Let's give it a shot."  They said, don't do it.  I said, "I have to do it."  And we finished second.  And I want to tell you something.  I'm just honored. I'm really honored.

We will go on to get the Republican nomination, and we will go on to easily beat Hillary or Bernie or whoever the hell they throw up there.  Iowa we love you, we thank you. You're special. We will be back many, many times.  In fact, I think I might come here and buy a farm.  I love it.   

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY:  All right, that was Donald Trump earlier tonight, speaking to a crowd of his supporters after finishing second in the Iowa caucuses behind Senator Ted Cruz.  Here with reaction, from The Weekly Standard, Steve Hayes, Democratic strategist Penny Lee, and Fox News, senior correspondent Geraldo Rivera.  

Geraldo, I actually am certain that he probably got that advice about Iowa, considering it's a state that Huckabee and Santorum won in years gone by. And I actually believed everything he said, on paper it wasn't a state you'd expect he'd compete in.  And I think, you know, at the end of the day.  

GERALDO RIVERA, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT:  Come on, Sean.  Come on.   

HANNITY:  Come on what?  

RIVERA:  You know, I love the guy but Donald Trump was ...

HANNITY:  It's not about loving the guy.

RIVERA:  He was the biggest loser by far tonight.  He lost the aura of inevitability.  You know, I thought that, you know, after reading the last 13 or 15 polls that he had done it.  He had defied everything that all those expectations, you know, those preconceptions that he just mentioned, and that you were amplifying.  I thought that he was going to win and run the table.  And Ted Cruz was right about that.  If he had won in Iowa, he would run the table.  

HANNITY:  Geraldo, Geraldo!  

RIVERA:  But he didn't ...

HANNITY:  But Geraldo ...

RIVERA:  Cruz did and, you know, I think that we're in for a long slog.  

HANNITY:  No, no, no.  You got to listen to me.  I pointed out every single night in the last week that the polls were way off in 2000, way off in '04, way off in '08, way off in 2012, and I said to everybody on the show, don't trust these polls.  They're never right.  Steve Hayes, you're not a Trump supporter in any way.  And you've got to admit, I bet he got that advice when he got into this race.  

STEVE HAYES, THE WEEKLY STANDARD:  Yeah, he may well have gotten that advice.  And look, whether he got that advice or not, he's right.  It's the way that he explains the situation.  People didn't think Donald Trump could come in second in Iowa.  People didn't think he'd be competitive for the Republican nomination.  

And here he is. I mean, I think that is a testament to the campaign that he's run thus far.  But I think Geraldo's right about the immediate take away from tonight.  Donald trump was seen as the likely victor in the last
11 of the last 12 public polls taken until yesterday.  He was the likely winner, and I think people assumed, myself included that this enthusiasm would generate a turnout that would be a Donald Trump turnout.  In fact, it generated a turnout for everybody else too.  

HANNITY:  But if the polls are wrong in 2004, '04, '08 and 2012.  Go back to 2012, Rick Santorum never had above 18 percent of the vote.  In those years, these polls have been off anywhere between 8 and 25 percentage points which is why I kept warning the audience, don't listen to these polls.  Penny Lee, on that side, the Democratic side, you've got to admit this was a horrible night, the biggest loser of the night by far is Hillary Clinton.  

PENNY LEE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST:  Sean, why didn't I expect for you the say that.  Absolutely you were going to say that.   

HANNITY:  Was she a winner tonight?  

LEE:  Absolutely she was a winner.  Look, Iowa is the perfect state for Bernie Sanders.  You have 43 percent of the electorate, of the Democratic electorates saying that they are socialists.  He underperformed in his own base.  So, this was a win for Hillary Clinton, by far.  And she's going to go out there.  She's going to compete heavily.  And she's going to go into the south.  

HANNITY:  He had three percent when he started in this race.  She was
anointed. This was a horrible night for her.   

LEE:  She was anointed by those, similar to you, capsizing (ph) those that put faith in their polls.  She never believed those polls.  At that point, that was name identification.  She won tonight.  

HANNITY:  Now Geraldo.  

RIVERA:  I think Fox News also won, Sean.  I think that we showed or Fox News proved that you can't, you know, disrespect the network or the anchors and pass on an important debate, particularly when it's the last one before the voting.  I think he was punished for that.  I think Marco Rubio is by far the biggest winner, bigger than Ted Cruz.  Ted Cruz like Hillary Clinton or like Bernie Sanders, rather.  Bernie Sanders and Ted Cruz, they pushed them on the side.  They're over there ...

HANNITY:  Can I just ask you a question?  How can you come up to that conclusion?  

RIVERA:  Wait a minute.  Wait, about Marco Rubio?  

HANNITY:  How do you come to that conclusion?  When Ted Cruz went to 99 counties, was not predicted in the polls really to win going back for the last six or eight polls.  And he ends up winning by a pretty decent amount.  And then yeah, Marco Rubio outperformed polls that have been tremendously inaccurate over the years.  

I agree. Marco had a good night.  And Cruz won.  So, you can't is say, Marco is the big winner, but Marco had a good night.  

RIVERA:  I think that Marco had a spectacular night.  I am not a big particular fan of Marco Rubio.  I think he had a terrific night.  When you look at Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders, they're very similar.  They're polar opposites.  They're not going to go very far being on the edge, is one on the right and one on the left.  

I think, Rubio now is the establishment candidate.  The biggest losers of all are Bush and Kasich and Christie and all those people who've paid $30,000 for every vote they got tonight.  I think that they really are marginalized.  I think Marco Rubio will be the establishment candidate going forward.  

I think Donald -- Donald Trump will now have to scrap and fight.  Hopefully he can -- not hopefully, I don't mean to characterize it in a personal way.  But I think that Donald Trump can't possibly redeem ...

HANNITY:  No, you meant hopefully because you said you support him.  You meant what you say.  

RIVERA:  I love him.  I don't necessarily support him.  But I think that ...

HANNITY:  Wait a minute.  You told me last night you would vote for him today if you were in Iowa.   

RIVERA:  If I was in Iowa and a Republican.  You asked me very specifically.  If i was an Iowa and Republican, who would I vote for.  I'm not an Iowan Republican.  I'm a New York Republican.  I think that Donald Trump could possibly redeem himself in New Hampshire.  

But now it's not a slam-dunk anymore. Now, we'll go into the polls next Tuesday thinking now I wonder.  Now people are going to start thinking about, Donald Trump, he's all bluster.  Like that concession speech he made tonight was so lame.  He's going to buy a farm in Iowa. He's not going to buy a farm in Iowa. He may never go back to Iowa.  It sounded disingenuous.  

HAYES:  Now I don't agree with that at all, Sean.  

RIVERA:  It came disorganized.  

HAYES:  I disagree with you.  I thought he was ...

HANNITY:  He showed graciousness.  

HAYES:  Yeah, I agree.  

RIVERA:  Compare to it Rubio's.  

HAYES:  That's exactly wrong.  No, that was a terrific concession speech.  
I think that was one of the better speeches that I've heard Donald Trump give.  He was gracious.  He was short and he was to the point.  He congratulated the other candidates.  

RIVERA:  Absolutely.   

HAYES:  And he moved on.  

RIVERA:  He didn't give anyone a reason why they should vote for him.  

HAYES:  I thought it was good moment for Donald Trump, honestly.  

RIVERA:  Why should they vote for him based on that concession speech, because he loves them, because he has a beautiful family which he does?  

HAYES:  Well look, he could've added some policy, sure.  Sure, he could've added some policy ...

(CROSSTALK)

HANNITY:  Gerald, let me tell you what it is.  Because he was gracious, he also pointed out something that I think was fairly obvious, that he was told not to go there.  And to me, I think if I was Donald Trump's campaign, I'd work on two things, organization and more specifics on issues to inspire people and tell people why he's in this race.  In other words, is he in it to Rubio?  

RIVERA:  Compare it to Rubio.  

HANNITY:  Well Rubio gave his stump speech.  

RIVERA:  He gave his stumps (ph).  So, Donald should've given his.  

HANNITY:  Right.  

RIVERA:  You've got to have five points or four points or I'm going be -- I'm going to be good ...

HANNITY:  But that's not what a concession speech is.  

RIVERA:  But Marco Rubio managed to make third place, first place.  How does that happen?  

HANNITY:  Only in your mind, Geraldo.  That doesn't make it true.  Penny, go ahead, last word.  

LEE:  Well, there's many -- there's 48 more states to go.  This is going to be a long race.  Nothing was determined tonight.  It was only one state.  
And we've got 48 more to go.  

HANNITY:  All right guys, thank you all for being with us.  Appreciate it.  

Coming up, we'll have more reaction of the results out of Iowa.  Senator Ted Cruz, the big winner for the Republicans, and at this hour, too close to call for the Democrats, that and more as, HANNITY continues straight ahead.  

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO, R-FLA., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE:  Well, this is a moment they've said would never happen.  For months, for months they told us we had no chance.  For months they told us because we offered too optimism in the time of anger, we had no chance.  For months they told us, because we didn't have the right endorsements, or the right political connections, we had no chance.  

They told me that we have no chance because my hair wasn't  gray enough and my boots were too high.  They told me I needed to wait my turn, that I needed to wait in line. Now, the moment has arrived for this generation of Americans to rise up to the calling of our heritage.  Now the time has come for us to take our place and do what we must.  And when I'm elected president of these great United States, we will do our part.  

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY:  All right, that was Florida senator, Marco Rubio speaking earlier tonight after placing third in the Iowa Republican caucuses.  

Joining us now are CRN-KRLA radio host, Larry Elder, Democratic poster and strategist, Jessica Tarlov.  And Larry, I think I can make a pretty strong case that is now a three man race and that, all three of the top republican candidates have a story to tell thoughts.  

LARRY ELDER, CRN-KRLA RADIO HOST:  Absolutely, I haven't had this much fun since I attended my best friend's bachelor party.  You know, if I were a Democrat ...

HANNITY:  Wow.  

ELDER:  ... I'd be worried.  

HANNITY:  That must've been a boring bachelor party.  

ELDER:  On the one hand, you have a candidate who should be indicted, if she's not, facing a 74-year-old Democratic socialist who looks like he sleeps in his car and she barely beat him.  On the other side, the top four ...

HANNITY:  We don't even know if she won.

ELDER:  That's right.  On the other hand, on the Republican side, Sean, the top four finishers include two Cuban-Americans and a black man.  Talk about rebranding a party that's perceived to be the party of exclusion, the racist party.  

And back in 2008, you had a young, dynamic, articulate, feisty senator squaring off against an establishment's 70-year-old.  And in 2016, you may very well have a young dynamic senator squaring off against an establishment, a near 70-year-old.  Not the kind of optics I'd want to go into the fall with if I were a Democrat.  

HANNITY:  Well said.  Jessica, I know that, you know, Democrats are trying to spin their way out of the bad night for Hillary.  Hillary lost tonight.  
I mean, whether she actually won by like, a tenth of a point, it doesn't matter.  She was not supposed to lose tonight.  

JESSICA TARLOV, DEMOCRATIC POSTER & STRATEGIST:  Well, a lot of people were saying, if you judged it by where the momentum was going, that she actually was supposed to lose tonight.  And we know that her firewall really starts in South Carolina then moving to the Super Tuesday states.  But I thought Iowa was winnable for Hillary.  

You know, when Ann Selzer says it's possible, you listen.  And I think that this was undoubtedly a good night for Bernie Sanders.  But it also wasn't the end of  the world for Hillary Clinton.  I think she will lose in New Hampshire.  

But as we head to the south, I think that she looks really strong.  And to Larry's point, you know, about how -- actually now the Republicans have the diversity there, I'm wondering then, why Democrats are leading by so much with Latinos, with black voters, with Muslim voters.  

HANNITY:  Well, we'll see.  

TARLOV:  Well, that's kind of the polls today.  I mean, today you said, we have Marco Rubio, we have Ted Cruz.  And I'm asking you where the Latino support is for the Republican  party even with those two  fellows doing really well.  

HANNITY:  Well they don't have a candidate yet.  Let's see.  Larry?  

TARLOV:  Well, you have like a thousand candidates and none of them are appealing to the minorities.  

HANNITY:  Okay but you ...

ELDER:  When we get down to a two-person race and then we'll figure it out but Sean, let's say something about Donald Trump.  You're absolutely right that several months ago, nobody expected this kind of finish.  But this is an expectations game and Donald Trump's problem in my opinion Sean, is deeper than the fact that he just didn't meet expectations let alone, exceed them.  

He is not a conservative.  He's got positions all over the place.  He's anti-free trade.  In the not too distant past, he was pro-choice.  He said, "Let's replace ObamaCare" quote, "With something better," as if another top down solution is better than the one we have right now.  That's his problem going forward against two very articulate, very strong fiscal and social conservatives.  He's in trouble from a policy standpoint, not just from a personality or stylistic stand point, in my opinion.

HANNITY:  You know, but you've got to admit this, Larry.  That, you know, when you add Trump's numbers and Cruz's numbers and Ben Carson's numbers, you've got over 60percent of the Republican base in Iowa saying that they don't like the establishment.  And the same thing on the Democratic side.  

ELDER:  Absolutely.  

HANNITY:  I mean, so ...

ELDER:  Absolutely.

HANNITY:  This insurgency year.  The game is changing here and we don't know how it's all going to play out.

ELDER:  Absolutely, Sean.  And the big loser tonight, the big loser was not Donald Trump.  The big loser was Jeb Bush.  My god, how much money did he spend?  And he ended up getting 3 percent of the vote.  I mean, that's just pathetic.  

HANNITY:  All right last word, Jessica.  

TARLOV:  I agree about Jeb Bush being the big loser.  And I appreciate that you didn't say it was Hillary Clinton.  That's welcome. I think that, you know, Jeb Bush ...

ELDER:  I didn't have enough time.

HANNITY:  Hello. Do I get a vote here?

TARLOV:  Yeah, what's your vote? Hillary Clinton is the big  loser?  

HANNITY:  I think Hillary is the big  loser.  

TARLOV:  How did I know you were going to say that?  

HANNITY:  But if you can't beat a 73-year-old curmudgeon socialist who is at 3 percent of the vote ...

ELDER:  74.  

HANNITY:  Sorry, 74.  That's kind of pathetic, Jessica.

TARLOV:  Listen, I'm with you.  I think that Hillary should be cleaning up on this.  I think, you know, also, we saw huge numbers of people in Iowa identifying as socialists.  

HANNITY:  And her, she seems -- she was also ...

TARLOV:  It's just not the way the rest of the country.  

ELDER:  Right.  

TARLOV:  I mean, I don't know.  Bernie Sanders ...

HANNITY:  ... was unlistenable.  

TARLOV:   Well, no, we all listened.  It was listenable.  I mean, it's not
your thing.  She's not your thing.  I mean, you're waiting with open arms for an indictment.  So, you know, you're not the best arbiter of Hillary Clinton judgment there.  But as a Democratic and Hillary supporter.  

HANNITY:  I can spot a candidate when i see one.  I've got to go.  

TARLOV:  OK, well, I like her.  

ELDER:  .... more people in Iowa.  

HANNITY:  Yeah, I got to go, guys.

ELDER:  More people in Iowa identify with socialism than capitalism, scary.  

TARLOV:  Well, then it's only Iowa.  It's not the whole country.  

HANNITY:  We're going to have more reaction to the big political news out of Iowa.  Pat Caddell, Katie Pavlich will weigh in next as we continue

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY:  Welcome back to HANNITY.  And here with us to break down the results out of Iowa, Fox News contributors Pat Caddell and Katie Pavlich.  All right Katie, your take, three-man race on the Republican side and Hillary big loser on Democratic side?  

KATIE PAVLICH, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR:  Actually it's a four-man race Sean from this point out because you look at New Hampshire and John Kasich actually does have a groundswell in that state.  So, we're going into New Hampshire soon.  There's still a lot of work to do, although Ted Cruz was victorious tonight.  We have to keep in mind that Iowa is not necessarily a determinant of what we're going see in the future.  

But on the Hillary Clinton side, look, she's in big trouble, Sean.  I mean, this is her second time around in Iowa. She's barely going to squeak out a win possibly, it's still too close to call.  And here we are with her panicking about not being able to beat Bernie Sanders in the state where she was supposed to have all the structure in place, all the voters coming out for her, she's going to lose New Hampshire.  And then she's going to be going in to the southern states with two losses already on the board.  I mean, it's a real problem for her when the general election comes around.  

HANNITY:  Let me ask you this.  If Kasich is in fact surging as you say and some polls have shown him in double digits, does that then cause a problem for Marco Rubio coming out of Iowa with good numbers in terms of the establishment vote?  

PAVLICH:  I think it probably does because Marco Rubio has been selling himself as someone who can bring the party together.  And he has to compete for those, you know, so-called establishment votes in New Hampshire.  However, I think because of his good showing tonight, I think because of his acceptance speech, I think people are probably going to take a second look at Marco Rubio.  And actually, Marco Rubio could pose a threat to John Kasich's surge in that state so.  

HANNITY:  Pat, let's get you to weigh in. Your thoughts on tonight.

PAT CADDELL, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR:  My first thought for the night, first of all, this as you said earlier, this was a big victory for the insurgents, both from the Republican Party and the Democratic Party.  And there is chaos everywhere.  

Secondly, we learned something.  And by the way, I think Hillary has lost the real popular vote.  The Democratic Party here has the numbers.  They will not release them.  No one cares what less than 1 percent of the Democratic delegates are.  They want to know who won the popular vote.  And I believe he beat her, if he doesn't actually and the delegates' votes out.

But having said that, let me go to the Republicans.  Cruz's ground game was everything it was said to be.  And Rubio and Trump skipping the debate, it was clear that Rubio having a platform to stand out, got a lot of the late deciders moving in his direction.  Trump I believe - let me tell you what I believe happened to Trump, other than his being too negative.  He has moved away from his message.  I will now tell you what I believe will happen in New Hampshire and that is for many experiences of Iowa and New Hampshire.  

In 2008, Barrack Obama was said after Iowa, he was going to beat - win New Hampshire and be the automatic nominee.  New Hampshire reacted saying, "We're not sure we want to make that decision and went to Hillary."  Trump suffered here because I believe the press said everywhere, "He's going to win Iowa then he'll run the tables.  He will be the nominee.  And a lot of voters here aren't sure they want that to happen.  

But I do think then what happens in New Hampshire, Trump will slaughter the field.  He'll slaughter the field.  We'll see what comes out of the establishment lane and then we will go to a bloodbath in South Carolina.  
He needs his message back.  

HANNITY:  All right.  

PAVLICH:  Yeah, we'll see if the voters turn out.  They've got to go to the polls.  

HANNITY:  Yeah, all right guys.  Great analysis, appreciate it.  

CADDELL:  They voted tonight. They voted tonight.

HANNITY: Coming up, we've got more in "Hannity" right after this quick break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY:  All right, that's all the time we have left this evening.  As always, thank you for being with us.  Quick programming note, tune in tomorrow night 10 Eastern.  The winner of the Iowa Republican caucus, Senator Ted Cruz will be with us.  Tomorrow night 10 Eastern.  As always, thanks for being with us and we'll see you back here tomorrow night.

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