Presidential candidates make final pleas to Iowa voters

Caucuses kick off 2016 nominating contests


This is a rush transcript from "The Five," February 1, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

KIMBERLY GUILFOYLE, CO-HOST: Hello, everyone. Happy Caucus Day. I'm Kimberly Guilfoyle along with Juan Williams, Eric Bolling, Dana Perino and Greg Gutfeld. It's 5 o'clock in New York City, 4 p.m. here in Des Moines, and this is "The Five."

The time has finally arrived. It's decision day in Iowa. A grueling campaign trail for more than a dozen presidential candidates has all led up to this. The first contest in the nation will be held tonight in just a few hours. High turnout is expected in both races. The blizzard in Iowa's forecast isn't rolling in until overnight, and we begin with a battle for the GOP nomination, the Republican hopefuls making their final plead to the voters.


DONALD TRUMP, GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You have got to go out. I kid when I say if you're in bed, if you're sick, if you can't walk, if the doctor says you cannot leave, I don't care. Get out of bed and vote. You got to do it.

MARCO RUBIO, GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If they nominate me to be the Republican nominee, I'll unite the Republican Party. I hope people tonight when they go to their caucus site, perhaps they're supporting someone that is not doing as well and they would consider caucusing for me because we can win.

CHRIS CHRISTIE, GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Show time is over. It's game time. And when game time comes, we need real players on the field, folks who really can do the job.

BEN CARSON, GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think people are actually when it comes down to the actual vote will be looking to listen to their heart and I think that's going to make a huge difference. I think everybody is going to be completely shocked.

TED CRUZ, GOP PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: If everyone here brings nine other people to the caucuses tomorrow night, we will win the caucuses tomorrow. We will win the nomination and we will win the general election in November.


GUILFOYLE: Well, a lot of anticipation about who can get them to roll out for them and who has been making the best case for themselves to motivate, inspire and turn out their supporters. Let's take it down the table. Juan, how is it going for your side? I'm not sure (ph). The public has gotten the energy going.

JUAN WILLIAMS, CO-HOST: Great question. Everybody is interested in what is happening with the Republicans right now. The question is the turnout. You were talking a little bit about the weather, but it doesn't look like the weather is going to be a problem. But you know, the energy is such that on both sides, Kimberly, it's a matter for Sanders, it's a matter for Trump, of that populous energy that I think has really animated this cycle, whether or not it gets additional to the polls, young people for Sanders and a lot of people who have never caucused before but have such -- I don't know. They are sort of taken by the outstanding bold, courageous even sometimes offensive rhetoric coming from Donald Trump.

GUILFOYLE: All right. Bolling, how do you see it?

ERIC BOLLING, CO-HOST: So, it's hard to do a show that is an hour or two hours before the caucuses begin closing the votes or started to be counted because you've heard a lot of the things that we're saying over and over again. But here's -- I think tonight when you find out who the winners are, it will be interesting to hear some victory speeches. It will be fun to watch. But watch the ones who didn't win or the ones who didn't perform to the level that everyone thought they were going to do. So a lot of people are saying Trump, Cruz and Rubio are the top three on the GOP side. Hillary and Bernie are close. But look at how they -- if it's not Donald Trump that won or if it's not Ted Cruz that's in second place, how does he handle that? Would he handle that with professionalism, with -- you know, we have New Hampshire coming up next and would he going to go fight or do they kind of have the bitter feeling like I should have won or I'm mad about it, very important to see an underperformer handles the loss.

GUILFOYLE: Yes. From a communication standpoint, Dana, it's going to be a - - all lies on leadership here in terms of how they handle it, the communication of their messaging, wherever they fall in the standing.

DANA PERINO, CO-HOST: Yes and their organization. And you heard Marco Rubio and I think Chris Christie -- I'm not sure if he was -- but they're starting to lose their voices partly because they have been working so hard. And if you're a Republican or Democrat and you had a chance to work on one of these campaigns, I think you should feel very proud of yourself. You are part of history. It's grueling. It's exhausting, but just try to soak up the moment because you've worked really hard up to now. I can see why listening to their final arguments that many people in Iowa wait until this weekend to make up their minds. They have taken it very seriously up to now. And finally, the voting will get understand way, which will be good for all of us.

GUILFOYLE: All right. Greg, you've got some messaging that you're wearing today.

GREG GUTFELD, CO-HOST: I am. I am. Get a good shot of this, my ensemble today. It's Bernie Sanders creeping up my chest. It's kind of a metaphor of how he's creeping up on Hillary. He looks like that elderly neighbor that peeks over your fence watching you sun bathe. Eric has had that problem many times. But you know what's interesting? This is a workday. So the crowds will be smaller for Republicans but not for the Democrats because they don't work, do they? There will be tons of people for Bernie and Hillary because that's all they got going in their lives. Anyway, my last point, it's interesting how much weighs on so little. It's basically 15 percent of the population of Iowa. That's 300 people. I did the math. It's like we're the most powerful nation in the world and we're depending on an audience smaller than who watch "Morning Joe."

PERINO: But if somebody has to go first in a small state like Iowa based on --


GUTFELD: I love Iowa. And I was lying. It's not 300 people.

PERINO: OK. All right. But it's only like 200,000.

GUTFELD: I know. That's still a lot of people. I can't fit that in my apartment. I tried.

BOLLING: Can I throw a little anecdotal in it?


BOLLING: So we've been spending a lot of time here. We had yesterday off and we talked to a lot of people, the lodge, the bars, the restaurants, the lobby. It's very busy. And I know it's one location, one city, Des Moines. We didn't get too far outside of Des Moines. But I will tell you there is a strong Rubio presence. It feels like, you know, if you do trend lines, Rubio's trend lines seem to be going up. I don't if there's any variation where Donald Trump is. He's been the front runner. It seems like -- in fact, there's a des Moines register poll ahead and 71 percent who thought they're going to vote for Trump are very sure they're going to vote for Trump, so that doesn't very much. But the Cruz supporters -- and they're very vocal -- but it feels like it's -- there's a bit of steam coming out of the Cruz -- how about era (ph) the Cruz buzz wheels and Rubio seems to be picking it up. Do you get the sense?

GUILFOYLE: yeah. You do get that sense and at least that's a lot of where the rhetoric and some of that momentum is going in that direction. But what we're seeing perhaps is those three kind of, you know, bunched up a bit, but that's why it makes for the most exciting day. Let's talk about -- a little bit about some of the candidates vying for the attention. Donald Trump is indeed the frontrunner in this race, but even he's a little nervous about the vote tonight showing some uncertainty this morning about how it's all going to go down.


UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you predicting a win tonight?

TRUMP: No, I can't do that. I mean we've had the biggest crowds, bigger than anybody, bigger than Bernie. Bernie is second I will say that. But the crowds have been incredible. I just don't know. I can't tell you that. I think so.


GUILFOYLE: OK. So a little bit of a different tone for the front runner, usually very bold, and you know, very confident but also this might be a bit of a strategy, Dana, where maybe under promised and over delivered.

PERINO: Oh, you took my line because that's what I was going to say. He's basically lowering expectations but -- so that could be a strategy, but it also could be because of what they're seeing in their internal polls and some of the other campaigns are saying that this weekend there was momentum including -- you saw Dr. Ben Carson in the Sound Bite with Greta Van Susteren saying people could be surprised, and he's right. There was a big surprise four years ago. So I really think that nobody knows exactly what's going to happen. And don't forget that Rand Paul's organization could be very big. Bernie Sanders is counting a lot on college kids and so is Rand and they seemed pretty energized.

WILLIAMS: You know what strikes me as so interesting is part of Trump's argument is Iowa, pick a winner this time, right? Because if you go back to 2008, they had Huckabee winning over McCaine then you go to 2012 and they had Santorum winning over Romney. And so, here -- I mean I think for all his humble attitude this morning, Dana, I think Trump is saying -- making the argument, "Go with me, go with a winner," and that's a very -- I don't know -- less than humble approach for just --


GUILFOYLE: Yeah. Well, I don't know. I mean I think also, Eric, it's a smart strategy and that you don't want people to feel like it's in the bag. It's all about getting, you know, your supporters out to go in caucus for you. So you don't want them to think that we have enough. You want to say, "OK. Get out there, make sure, bring your friends. If you have a doctor's appointment, you can to skip it."

WILLIAMS: Right. I love that.

BOLLING: And don't forget, he's opened up a massive lead in New Hampshire I a week. So in a week, we'll go there and the he's -- so maybe some of the toning down is, "Hey, look. We want to win this. We'd love to win this. But if we don't, we still have --

PERINO: It doesn't matter.

BOLLING: -- we still have next week and then South Carolina after that. This election though, 2016, is all about the outsiders. The outsiders have taken it to the insiders. And frankly, the insiders have said, "Well, it's only a matter of time." Eventually, America will wake up and realize that, you know, the insiders, the establishment will prevail like they always have in the past, but it hasn't happen. And I'll tell you one thing, if it doesn't happen this way, these polls have shown basically the same thing from start to here we are at the beginning of the election process, the actual votes. If it doesn't turn out that way, then next time around, I'm not even talking about a poll.

PERINO: Can I hold you to that?



GUILFOYLE: Yes. Exactly. Somebody get that on tape. All right. Greg, you are starting to resemble Bernie with a smile. It's frightening --


GUTFELD: I say keep an eye open for Ben Carson because his eyes will be closed. I think he literally -- he is literally a sleeper and you will see him rise. I hear Martin O'Malley is casting a vote for himself, so he gets one vote. But you know, I don't know -- my point is when you look at the candidates out there, there are at least four people out there that you can tell could beat Hillary and one is an end table because she's such a terrible candidate and it would be a real shame for the Republicans to screw this up because it's an amazing opportunity that the Democrats are stuck with this mess.

BOLLING: Can you imagine all the money that Bernie Sanders is raising, he's just under Hillary. Both have raised more money and spent more money than any Republican. But can you imagine if Bernie Sanders --

GUILFOYLE: Yes. Upset.

BOLLING: -- does win here in Iowa and then he is going to crush her in New Hampshire next week --


BOLLING: -- he's going to -- she would theoretically start out with two losses and there's a lot of money would going to Bernie Sanders -- right? It goes to Bernie Sanders if she doesn't win one of these.

PERINO: It could be. I heard someone I respect today saying that her feel this past week that she's been here is that the revolution she sees is on - - the momentum is on the Bernie Sanders side, that that's where a lot of the energy is, and who knows, he could surprise her.

BOLLING: Yeah. And the money though. The money will go there --

PERINO: Well, I don't know what that means going into South Carolina.


PERINO: I think that Bernie Sanders --


WILLIAMS: No. Let's get real here for a second.

BOLLING: OK. Let's get real.

WILLIAMS: Let's get real.

GUILFOYLE: Juan is going to educate us.

WILLIAMS: No. I'm just saying Hillary's firewalls looking at the number is so strong.

BOLLING: I've heard this so many times.


WILLIAMS: But you -- but you keep talking about --

BOLLING: Why? Because they're saying the African-American vote --


WILLIAMS: Not only African-American. How about the Latinos? No. One thing about Iowa and New Hampshire is they're the not represented racially in terms of being more rural, smaller than the rest of the country. You'll get a different result going forward. What was so telling in 2008 about Iowa is that they would vote for Barack Obama. That was like stunning.

BOLLING: Can we at least agree that four or five months down the road -- or look back Hillary was destroying Bernie Sanders in Iowa --


BOLLING: -- and now it's too close to call?


GUILFOYLE: He has denied that momentum.

WILLIAMS: I think that's energy. That's revolution. He's talking about political revolution. That has really caught afire. But the issue is talking about what does it mean down the road and this electorate on the Democratic side is more liberal --

BOLLING: If she doesn't win one of the two --


WILLIAMS: Let me finish. Hang on. Just for a second. Yes, there is. But let me just say, this Iowa Democratic vote -- Democratic vote that you're going to experience in New Hampshire is far more liberal than the Democratic vote in the rest of the country particularly the south there.

BOLLING: I just think firewall starts to come down it she doesn't win one of the first two.

GUILFOYLE: Well, Juan is diehard. He is very like bullish about Hillary. But you know what? There's also been a revelation in terms of her legal problems and potential indictment looming and that's another choice the voters are going to have to make. You want to back a candidate that might have to back out.

All right. This wild race has let many Iowa voters changing their minds up until the last minute. You're going to hear it from some of them next when our countdown to the caucuses continues. Stay with us.


BOLLING: Welcome back to "The Five." The polls say one thing, but the people of Iowa could surprise us tonight. Many voters here still remain undecided. Others keep changing their minds on the candidates. Watch this Frank Luntz focus group for proof.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What caused you to shift? What caused you to flip from one to another?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well, over the last three days, I've gone from Trump and then we watched the debate where he didn't show up and I was a huge Cruz supporter. I've seen him in person. And then Megyn Kelly showed him the video of his bill and a magnet (ph), he dropped it down to 38 words, you know, and kept going back and forth with that. I just didn't see him as honest anymore. So now, I'm with Marco Rubio.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So you went to three different candidates in the last 48 hours.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There is a word for that. I don't know what it is.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's not flip-flopping.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But there's a word for that. And how likely are you to stay with Marco Rubio?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: 100%. I was actually able to see him in person last weekend and ask him a direct question about my family and their security and the way he answered it where my 10-year-old with me it made me really solidified why I would choose him as a candidate.


BOLLING: So could someone like Senator Rubio pull off one of the night's biggest surprises even if he doesn't win? Charles Krauthammer thinks maybe.


CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: The person to watch is Rubio. He's now been at 15 percent in that area for a while, essentially stalled almost waiting. And I think -- he's not going to win. I think that's very improbable. But if he reaches a 20 percent, he will be seen as the one who exceeded expectations. And given the fact that there are really only three candidates in the race right now, that could, I think, make him going into New Hampshire formidable.


BOLLING: OK, KG, what do you say about that?

GUILFOYLE: Yeah. I mean that's why he was like the ground swell of support that we've been, you know, hearing about. He's the one that the expectation level was lower, so he could outperform and really be kind of in a sweet spot coming out of Iowa. The Rubio campaign strategy was that, you know, 3- 2-1, perhaps to get in the top three in Iowa, solidify his positioning and then achieve (ph). He might be peaking just at the right time and that could really help them. I mean other than that -- I mean if he still so much so like Trump, Cruz, Rubio or more, I think a close second and third.

BOLLING: A Rubio second place finish would be a real win for him, right?

PERINO: I think that he would have to feel really good about that. Their team would be in really great position. I think that this also does show what that's Sound Bite from the focus group showed is that we were talking about the debate and how important it was and how about 45 percent of people said that they -- in 2012 they did not make up their decision on who they would support until after that last debate. So that's why it's so important. And I think Donald Trump maybe he doesn't regret not coming to the debate, but I do think it probably has hurt him in Iowa.

BOLLING: Greg, so most of the polls had it Trump, Cruz, Rubio the last couple of weeks -- at least in the last couple of weeks. Any surprises going to break in the top three?

GUTFELD: Well, I think -- I mean if Rubio gets up there, you should think Trump because Cruz had nobody to drop behind. I mean basically Lance Armstrong took a breather and he couldn't hide behind Trump anymore. And then everybody ate him alive because they saw that he was just an imitator. I just, you know, I think the reason why those focus groups are so unfocused, if you will, there are lots -- there are many competent different models up there. There is something for everybody and something that you like and dislike. It's like Ms. World but with one lady and 12 dumpy guys. It's really -- I mean it's a wealth. What do you call it? Wealth of riches or something like embarrassment --

PERINO: Embarrassment of riches.

GUTFELD: I'm an embarrassment.

PERINO: Of riches?

GUTFELD: No. By the way, why are caucuses always in really depressing public buildings? They're like in schools and libraries. They're the worse --

PERINO: Those are the public buildings.

GUTFELD: Yes. But they're the -- they remind me of the worse time of my life. It's --


BOLLING: Can I just point out the caucus -- the process is really fascinating, especially the difference between the GOP and Democrats, Juan. The Democrats will go, they will talk. Each candidate gets someone to speak on their behalf for four -- three or four minutes. And then they'll go and try to sway each other's people come over to my side. The Republicans say, "Here is your four minutes. Now, we vote." Which one is better?

WILLIAMS: Yeah. Well, I mean if you believe in community and people coming together and the whole concept --

GUTFELD: I don't.

WILLIAMS: I know you don't -- the whole concept of caucus really is that you come together in a small community, maybe even a living room, Gregory, you could go to a living room, you know.

GUTFELD: Isn't caucus short for Caucasian?


GUTFELD: Doesn't that make it racist?

WILLIAMS: You now, this is your problem. This is your problem, white chocolate. You always come back to race.

GUILFOYLE: Oh, my God. Here we go with the white chocolate.

WILLIAMS: No. what I'm going to say it's so fascinating to watch as you go in to one of these races because this is so -- this has some relevance for tonight. On the Democratic side, if you don't get up to about 15 percent --


WILLIAMS: -- then you can go -- you can leave, but you could also join with the other camps. And that means Martin O'Malley's troops, which I don't think are going to get to 15 percent, are potentially a target for either Clinton or Sanders. The one other thing to say is watching TV ads here in Iowa over the weekend, men, you can't get away from it. It's unbelievable. And guess what? The target from Trump and from Rubio is Cruz. They're all calling him a liar and a cheat and a thief.

BOLLING: All right. We're going to leave it right there. We have a lot more to show you, a lot of young Democratic votes say they're feeling the burn back in socialist, Bernie Sanders, for president. Do that understand what socialism really is, an important refresher from Greg when "The Five" returns.


GUTFELD: Last night a Russian man asked me how on earth Bernie Sanders -- a socialist -- could be running for president.

Here's the answer: Socialists place a blindfold on history masking its denial of progress and the mess it's made of this world. See Cuba, Argentina, Bolivia, Belize, Ecuador, El Salvador, and of course, Venezuela, a place literally full of crap since socialism made toilet paper scarce.

Socialism is a doctor who knows the cure is freedom, but suffocates the patient with a pillow anyway. Sanders says it's a revolution, a modern code for, quote, "something people don't want." So it must be forced on them. It's one step shy of radical Islam, rejecting innovation for medieval failure.

Look, it's hard enough to craft policies for the unknown, whether it's terror or war. So why are we embracing the evil of known like socialism? Thank the four horsemen from hell: government, academia, pop culture and media. They refuse to name the villain of history because they're in bed with it. A villainy that exists on the backs of the rest of us. Socialism is a maggot on the marketplace because it can't create, but only take -- through wealth confiscation made from your exhausted flesh. Socialism is theft because it cannot make money. It thwarts ingenuity because it cannot generate incentive and it kills growth because it crushes opportunity.

Sure, Sanders seems like a really nice guy. But a vote for him isn't a vote for a kind man, but a cruel doctrine that sticks to the planet's shoe like toilet paper from the world's worse restaurant.

Juan, I'll go to you first because you got me this beautiful shirt, which I will never take off. I had Bernie all over my body.

WILLIAMS: Oh, I hope you recover.

BOLLING: Are you feeling the burn.

GUTFELD: Yes. Literally, figuratively, and disgustingly. Juan --

GUILFOYLE: There's an ointment for that.

GUTFELD: Yes. It doesn't work for me. Juan, isn't it a fact that you can only love socialism as long as you don't live under it, which is why someone like Sean Penn could idolize Hugo Chavez in Venezuela but lives in Malibu?

WILLIAMS: Well, that's actually -- obviously he used that example.


WILLIAMS: But you know the one that Bernie likes?


WILLIAMS: Scandinavian countries.

GUTFELD: of course. Scandinavia.


GUTFELD: It's not even socialism, my friend.

WILLIAMS: OK. Well, I'm just saying. Those kinds of --

GUTFELD: It's a highly tax hammock.

WILLIAMS: Yes. Scandinavia. That's the big difference. In the Scandinavian countries, they're willing to tax the middle class for these programs that protects people who get ill or far below the income and become economically disadvantaged. Bernie Sanders is focused on taxing the rich. And I think that's the big difference and that could be a problem obviously. So interesting, when you talk about Bernie raising more money than any other Republicans --


WILLIAMS: -- most of his money comes in small denominations, small under 200 bucks --


WILLIAMS: -- and those are from young people who I think, Greg, want a revolution.

GUTFELD: Yeah. They want a revolution because they're in student debt because they didn't think about the money they took out. Eric, if he is raising so much money, a true socialist could share it with the other candidate.

BOLLING: Good point. Good point, Greg.

You left out a couple -- Cuba, El Salvador, Bolivia, Venezuela, New York, California.

So think about this for one second. Bernie Sanders, the socialist, up against Donald Trump, the capitalist.


BOLLING: This plays perfectly into the GOP's hands. If you have someone representing capitalism that we built this country on capitalism. Our founders took risks to come over here, start businesses and built a beautiful country, a global power; and we fought the socialist and communist countries. I think this is a great set-up for the GOP, any one of them.

WILLIAMS: You're exactly right. That's why on this panel, we are constantly putting down Hillary and building up Bernie. I'm just wondering.

You know, when you think about movement candidates, it's like Greg is talking about the energy. And I think back to people, you know, Ralph Nader and the like. And all these movement candidates -- Ron Paul, remember Ron Paul?


WILLIAMS: Ross Perot, Jesse Jackson, George Wallace. You know, I think they come and go, but they don't stay.

GUTFELD: I'd say Bernie is definitely a movement candidate. Dana, you know young people. Some say you are a young person. What -- how do we talk to these young people today to remind them of what socialism really is?

PERINO: Well, we might have to make an app.


PERINO: The guy that asked you the question, we were at The Villages, and we took Q&A at the end of our event. And he was an immigrant who had come to America. He was fortunate to come during the Cold War, and his question to you was how could this possibly happen? How could, in America, forget what it was like?


PERINO: And history is doomed to repeat itself.


PERINO: So it is incumbent upon all of us who studied it to be able to pass on the information. And I think you have to be specific with examples, and you actually might have to get social media involved to show...

GUTFELD: Socialist media. That's what I call it. Socialist media.

GUILFOYLE: The problem is there's a fresh new crop coming in in American universities across this country, with liberal professors indoctrinating those with eager minds and lots of student debt. And they think it's very exciting to embrace this idea. They don't really understand the history behind it.

And that's where you're seeing sort of this big enthusiasm bunch up with young people in the universities that's kind of spilling out. And he's been able to tap into that, because their memory is not, you know, knowing what we know.

GUTFELD: Nobody in Venezuela would vote for Bernie Sanders after the hell that they've been through. If you're a young person and don't know about socialism, just read up on Venezuela. It's happened. It's unfolding before your eyes. It's a hell hole.

WILLIAMS: What do you tell people about Social Security?

GUTFELD: Well, I tell -- it's your money.

WILLIAMS: Oh, that's right.

GUTFELD: It is your money.

WILLIAMS: ... but I don't think all of it is...

GUTFELD: No, I'm against Social Security.

WILLIAMS: Oh, now he comes to the point.

GUTFELD: I'm against it, but it's my money.


GUTFELD: But I'd rather just say -- I'm for Social Security amnesty. You can have it. Just stop taking it from me.

BOLLING: Bernie Sanders, if all his policies were instituted in ten years it would be, like, up $19 trillion. Nineteen trillion dollars.


BOLLING: As much as since day one the country has founded. He would double it.

WILLIAMS: That's why we're lucky you live here. You can help us get out of it.

GUILFOYLE: He would take 90 percent of your money, and once these kids have to start paying their own bills, they would realize.

GUTFELD: He would take the shirt off my back.

WILLIAMS: Yes, he would.

GUTFELD: By the way, just so people know, this isn't a shirt. These are actually body tattoos.

All right. We've got to move on. The caucuses will begin very soon. I bet you haven't heard that. But what goes down at a caucus? That sounds strange. What is a caucus, even? How many times am I going to say caucus? Campaign Carl has all the answers next.


GUTFELD: Caucus.


PERINO: All right. Welcome back to "The Five," live from Iowa. Tonight's caucuses begin at 7 p.m. Central Time, less than three hours from now. For some voters, it will be their first time caucusing, and FOX News spoke with some of them earlier.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm sick and tired of these politicians lying. And I've never done it before, because I think they're all a bunch of crooks and they lie. And we've finally got ourselves a businessman here that tells it like it is, and I believe he'll get something done.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I feel that it's my duty as an American to go out and put forth my opinion.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tonight, I think I'll be caucusing for Bernie. He's not scared to say what he wants to say. Kind of like Trump, but I think that I like Trump, and I respect that he started the end of political incorrectness.


PERINO: There aren't any voting booths, so we're going to find out how a caucus works. Let's bring in in our election expert, Campaign Carl.

And before we get started, I've got to ask you, Carl: what are you wearing there? Do you have a little special outfit on?

GUILFOYLE: Oh, my gosh.



CAMERON: This is the Brit Hume coat. Well, now it's mine. This coat has been on the campaign trail in Iowa and New Hampshire and across the country every single four-year cycle since 1984. Brit wore it in '84, '88 and '92, and in '96 gave it to me. And so he did it for four cycles, and I did it now for, what, now four cycles. It's a little beat up. You know, the buttons don't hold any more. There's absolutely no thread on here. But it's got more miles on the campaign trail than any other reporter living at this point, I think.

PERINO: All right. I love that.

Eric has got a question for you.

BOLLING: Hey, Carl. So we've been talking about the caucus process on the GOP side. These caucuses, they get together, they figure out who won with the most votes. but it's not -- it's not a who wins the most caucuses. It's actually a popular vote, right?

CAMERON: Sure. Different for Republicans and Democrats in terms of process. The Republicans get together. Every campaign will have a spokesperson, a precinct captain for each campaign. And those individuals will get to make speeches on the Republican side.

And then they have a secret ballot, and that's pretty much it. But those speeches can take a few hours. And they're often laden with peer pressure.

For instance, the Cruz campaign and the Rubio campaign plan to send their precinct captains armed with talking points that essentially say to all the candidates that are not Cruz, Trump or Rubio, that you ought to just hang it up for the people you've been supporting and come over to the Cruz/or Rubio campaigns in order to stop Trump.

There's a big question whether or not Trump's precinct captains will have that same sort of rhetoric positioning, trying to get the secret ballot to sway their way with those who may not be quite as viable.

On the Democratic side, obviously, they have this process where you go there and you get in line for the candidate that you like before you actually even get the chance to vote. Sometimes it's in a house or school, you'll gather where the group of supporters for your particular candidate.

Then you'll have the speaker make the speeches, and then they'll have a public ballot, and any candidate that doesn't reach 15 percent is considered unviable and bounced. That sometimes leaves a lot of caucus goers looking for somebody else to support. And there's a lot of horse trading.

If it's in a precinct where there's only a very few delegates, the -- to their convention. If there's only a few precincts from New Hampshire -- excuse me, for Iowa -- up for grabs, you'll see campaigns really horse trading just to try to split the delegates between the collectively favorite candidates instead of the ones that may have the best campaign in that particular region.

PERINO: All right. K.G.

GUILFOYLE: Normally, it's Campaign Carl, but today we're coining it Caucus Carl. So tell us about sort of momentum on the ground from the different camps...


GUILFOYLE: ... as we've seen some shifts over the past week.

CAMERON: Everybody in the top campaigns, which is to say Rubio, Cruz and Trump is claiming momentum. We were at a couple of events today where the crowds were substantially smaller. It's a weekday. Over the course of the weekend, the crowds got huge, because people could actually come to the caucus event.

They did slow today. At one point, there were actually people leaving Trump's event while he was speaking, and perhaps that's a sign of minds changing. But you can't read too many tea leaves about into this stuff when we're now one hour and 18 minutes away from the actual voting.

The momentum would appear to be with either Cruz or Rubio. The Rubio campaign thinks it's gotten a lot of jazz in the last couple of days. Cruz has the best organization. And momentum in the polls and momentum on the campaign trail at events is not as important as ground troops at the caucuses in order to get people to come your way.

PERINO: All right. I bet you've been waiting all day for Greg Gutfeld's question.

GUTFELD: I have a very, very simple question, Carl. According to the authorities, in order to participate in the caucus, you have to be 18 years old. What if she told that you she was 18?

CAMERON: So this is the thing about peer pressure. These are friends and family who know one another. And they do shame each other into picking sides. They don't always check I.D. as thoroughly as they should. They don't always lock the doors exactly at 7 p.m., particularly, if it's their next-door neighbor who's standing in the parking lot, trying to get in.

And some of these are rather big, there could be thousands of people -- a couple, 1,500 people in a caucus, but it could be as small as a half a dozen.

And imagine sitting around your living room, arguing politics with somebody, but at the end you've got to vote and make it official, and then send it to the rest of the state. So don't underestimate on either side the ability to arm twist and extort political support from the people who might live right across the street from you.

GUTFELD: So the moral for us is that at any time you could be tricked by someone lying to you, and it's not your fault.

PERINO: Excellent question, Greg. We've got the last one from Juan.

CAMERON: This is politics.

PERINO: All right.

WILLIAMS: So you've got to help out the TV viewers who are going to be watching FOX and watching Megyn and Bret tonight. There's no poll closing time, Carl. So when can you really expect to get some results?

CAMERON: Probably well after 10 p.m. They're using Microsoft now to tabulate the incoming vote totals. It's a first. There were a whole series of reforms that were undertaken by both the Republican and Democratic parties for the 2012 caucuses.

But it could go late, particularly if there's a problem with the Microsoft technology in order to bring it all in. The problem last time was that there were some ballots that didn't get counted on time, and at first everyone thought Mitt Romney won, and then Rick Santorum claimed victory, but it took 16 days before the state could actually verify that. And then, back then, the caucus results went to a state party convention here in Iowa in the mid-summer, and they turned everything upside-down and gave Ron Paul the delegates. That will not happen. This time it's a binding caucus, and we'll see case-by-case whether they adhere closely to the rules.

PERINO: All right. A binding caucus. You heard it here first.

All right. Final thoughts and predictions on tonight's big vote are next.


WILLIAMS: And here they come down the stretch. Some final thoughts before tonight's first presidential vote of 2016. Our predictions and a look ahead to the upcoming contest. I start with our betting, perfecta, trifecta expert, Ms. Dana Perino.

PERINO: I don't like to bet on this one, because I think that -- I think that we're going to have some surprises tonight, and I think that the polls are going to show to not be accurate as a predictor. Because that's been the case the last couple of elections, especially the special one in Kentucky.

The other thing is, is that remember, this is just the first of many. As soon as the voting is under way tonight, the candidates are going to hightail it to New Hampshire. And after New Hampshire, they go to South Carolina and then Nevada. And then you don't get the big Super Tuesday results until, I think, March 15.

So we've got a long way to go, but it's good that tonight we're going to get it started.

WILLIAMS: Wait a second. You've got to give me a prediction.

PERINO: I actually feel like we do a disservice to people when we go to things that are -- I have no idea.

WILLIAMS: You know when you go to the window, you've got to put your money down.

PERINO: I'm not a gambler.

WILLIAMS: Put your money down.

GUILFOYLE: I'm going to put some money down, because I picked up the fried chicken and went to pick Brit Hume's brain today over there. Yes, I mowed down, like, four pieces of fried chicken.

He said to me, "You know, Kimberly, there's no reason, really, to not believe, you know, the polls right now. We'll see what happens."

And then last night when I was watching "Special Report," kind of the same thing. The consistent message with where the polls have been going. They've been pretty, you know, straight on the line there. Trump. And the only thing I think is maybe, perhaps with Cruz and Rubio.

But the one who has the most to lose tonight, I think, is Cruz because there's a high expectation level on him, being center stage at the debate and Trump not being there kind of, I think, swiped him a little bit. He was getting all the rapid fire at him. He's put a tremendous amount of resources and, yes, a smart intelligent ground game. They need to deliver for him so that he still remains very, like, vibrant. And you know.

WILLIAMS: Now I go to my friend. And let me tell you, I go to Vegas with this guy. I just watch the number he plays. So give me a prediction.

BOLLING: So a little bit of a long shot. Not the -- I think Trump is going to win it, but the long shot, I would say, Marco Rubio does take it. It's a long shot. No one expected him to come in in the top three or four. And I think he comes in second. Again, this is just -- let's have -- we're just speculating. We're having a little bit of fun here. I think Cruz comes in third. And Jeb had -- had an event here.

GUILFOYLE: Tremendous event.

BOLLING: And it was packed. It was a big, big event here.

PERINO: He could definitely surprise.

BOLLING: So maybe look at Jeb bounce up into maybe the top three or four.

GUILFOYLE: He certainly has enough resources.

BOLLING: And on the other side, I think Bernie walks away with this. I don't think it's even close.

PERINO: Wow. Walks?


BOLLING: I'm seeing what's going on here.

Before we go...

GUILFOYLE: It's written all over Greg's shirt.

BOLING: ... people in Iowa are amazing. I want to thank every one of them. Passionate, you love politics.

WILLIAMS: All right. I only have a few seconds, Gregory, but Gregory, I go to Vegas with Bolling.


WILLIAMS: You, I play three card monte.


WILLIAMS: So I've got to hear your prediction.

GUTFELD: Well, you know, the only Pole I trust was John Paul II. So I think -- you know, an interesting thing about the caucuses, the president - - the candidates actually don't have to file to be in this poll, which means theoretically, you can just write in me.

GUILFOYLE: I knew it.

WILLIAMS: I think that's a great idea. That's a great idea.

PERINO: Make history.


WILLIAMS: All right. I don't think there's much question about the polls. If you look at the polls, it's Clinton and Trump.

"One More Thing" up next.


GUILFOYLE: Hi there, little baby. Smile for the camera, Moose.


GUILFOYLE: All right. Well, it's time now for "One More Thing," Iowa style. Eric, we begin with you.

BOLLING: Well, these little guys are rescues, and while we spend a lot of time talking about caucuses this week, Adrienne, my wife has been like, "Hey, you've got to see these people. These are Patriots for Pets. This is Squat. Dana's holding Shorty.


BOLLING: Kimberly's holding Moose. These guys are available for rescue. They're rescue dogs. They're the -- Iowa, get out there and go meet your new best friend.

PERINO (singing): You want to see everybody.

BOLLING: And by the way, try to figure out a way to get Squat to come home with me. We're working this one.

GUTFELD: If I had a dollar for how many times I heard that.

WILLIAMS: All right.

PERINO: My next...


PERINO: All right. I want to introduce to you -- what do we have? -- Nate Plattner (ph). Raise your hand, Nate. And we have Ryan Henderson. Ten and 11, they are from Iowa here. Tell them who your favorite is on the show.


PERINO: You can say Greg.


PERINO: And tell them what your favorite part of the show is?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: "I hate these people!"

PERINO: We're showing everybody how good...

GUTFELD: I'm training them well.

PERINO: My "One More Thing" is Dierks Bentley traded in his guitar for a hockey stick. It was a charity event, the Breakaway Challenge. NHL all- star skills competition.


PERINO: And he scored a goal. I think we have some video.


UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is country star Dierks Bentley moving in with James Neal (Ph). He scores!


PERINO: There we go. And he announced the American Country Music Award nominees today. And he's going to host that event with Lou Bryant (ph) on April 3. So I'm looking forward to that.


PERINO: That's it, K.G.

GUTFELD: Hockey and country music, Juan, right up your alley, eh?

WILLIAMS: I'm telling you, Greg.

GUTFELD: All right. Last night Dana and I flew to Florida to be with The Villages, where we put on an event with Larry Gatlin, who was fantastic. There we are. We basically interviewed ourselves. And you can see that there's a cutout of Jasper there.

There she is, Dana running around with her dog. But we had a great time.

I want to thank the people there. That's the auditorium. And they're such dedicated fans -- that's me sleeping. Never take pictures of people asleep on the plane. It's a violation.

Anyway, Villages loves "The Five." They love everybody here. They are insane for this show. And it reminds you how special this show is, when you see the reaction. They treat us like a family.

PERINO: Almost 1,000 people at the Sheraton (ph). Great.

GUTFELD: All right, I'll shut up now.

GUILFOYLE: Very, very nice. Juanito, what do you have for us?

WILLIAMS: Yesterday I got to have a little fun here in Iowa with Bill and Martha MacCallum, for Martha's birthday. Take a look at this.


BILL HEMMER, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Before we get out of here, Iowa's throwing a party for my co-anchor and colleague and friend, Martha MacCallum, and we'd like to say...

WILLIAMS: It's Juan Williams!

(singing): Happy birthday to you. Happy birthday to you.


WILLIAMS (singing): Happy birthday dear Martha MacCallum, happy birthday to you.

MACCALLUM: That was beautiful. That was the best happy birthday celebration.


WILLIAMS: So happy birthday, Martha. You deserve it; you're the best.

GUILFOYLE: Hi, baby.

BOLLING: That's awesome.

GUILFOYLE: Very nice. Yes, happy birthday, Ms. Martha.

OK. And so there's a lot of things in life that can bring comfort. Obviously, beautiful animals like we have here -- right -- are definitely a way to find comfort and put warmth and love into your home.

And then there's also food you can put in your mouth. So the top ten comfort foods chosen by Americans. This is a sampling of 2,200 U.S. adults. No. 1 was pizza, topping the list. Chocolate, ice cream, mac & cheese, potato chips, hamburgers, steak -- I think I've had them all. While I was...

GUTFELD: Kimberly, fun fact: you are actually holding President Obama's comfort food.

GUILFOYLE: Oh, my gosh. Poor Moose. Moose, don't listen to him.

PERINO: K.G., he already fell asleep.

GUILFOYLE: Yes. OK, he's asleep? That's it for us. Tune in tomorrow at 5 p.m. Eastern and don't miss the outcome of the election tonight.

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