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Kelly File

Iowa GOP chair expects record caucus turnout, 'drama'; Rand Paul predicts big showing

This is a rush transcript from "The Kelly File," January 31, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MEGYN KELLY, HOST: Breaking tonight after a presidential campaign unlike any other we are finally less than 24-hours away from the first of the nation's caucuses. When Iowa voters will have their say in the process to elect the next president of the United States.

Welcome to "The Kelly File" everyone, I'm Megyn Kelly, live her in Des Moines, Iowa. It's happening.

By this time tomorrow night the caucuses will be well underway. And tonight the candidates are crisscrossing the state in an effort to shore up support. The latest polling out of Iowa shows a real battle at the top, look at this. According to the Des Moines Register, Donald Trump in the lead at 28 percent, Ted Cruz follows at 23 percent. And this represents a shift in the race because last month the same poll had Ted Cruz with a 10 point advantage over Donald Trump.

Still, a lot could change overnight because 45 percent of Iowa voters say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate. That's how it works with the caucuses. So it is anybody's guess. We have a big show for you on tap tonight. Plus, we will get analysis from Chris Stirewalt and Howe Kurtz.

We will also speak to presidential candidate Rand Paul about his strategy, and Iowa Congressman Steve King is here to discuss the politics at play in his home state. But we begin tonight with Frank Luntz and a focus group of Iowa voters. Watch this.

FRANK LUNTZ, POLITICAL CONSULTANT: Megyn, all eyes are on Iowa and on caucus voters just like this right here because every one of them has changed who they support within the last 48 hours. In fact, watch his, how many of you could change back and might go to someone else? Raise your hands. What is wrong with these people? How long does it take?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You know, we have so many. The field is so big, there are so many issues and more things keep coming out. And especially in the last debate without Donald Trump there, you saw other candidates able to come up and rise to the top and give you a different impression of them.

LUNTZ: So I got to ask, was that actually a positive not having Trump there? Did you feel like you learned more?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

LUNTZ: You're nodding your head. Tell me why?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Absolutely, because I feel like when Trump speaks it's a circus and it's all about being a bully and trying to get everybody, you know, just attack, attack, attack. Where this time it was all about the issues. And everybody got more of a fair chance to speak, than some of the other debates.

LUNTZ: I know some of you like Trump. So, you're nodding your head.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, I switched to Trump. As a small business owner I think he gives me the best chance to better my business and leave a legacy for my family.

LUNTZ: And what gave you that impression over the last 48-hours that you didn't have before?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because I really delved into the financial and fiscal policies of Donald Trump, and being a business owner himself and having time to research it over the weekend and -- into the weekend gave me a chance to look and say he's not going to penalize me for being the best business owner I can be.

LUNTZ: What caused you to shift? What caused to flip from one to another?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Well over the last three days I've really gone from Trump, then we watched the debate where he didn't show up, and I was a huge Cruz supporter, I've seen him in person. And then after Megyn Kelly showed that video of his bill and amendment he brought it down to 38 words, you know, and kept going back and forth with that, I just didn't see him as honest anymore so now I'm with Marco Rubio.

LUNTZ: So you went through three different candidates in the last 48- hours.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yup.

LUNTZ: There's a word for that, I don't know what it is.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's not flip-flopping.

LUNTZ: But there's a world for that. And how likely are, you just stay with mark would Marco Rubio?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: 100 percent. I was actually able to see him in person last weekend and asked a direct question about my family and their security, and the way he answered it with my 10-year old with me, it made me really solidify why I would choose him as a candidate.

LUNTZ: How many of you have meet a presidential candidate this election cycle, raise your hands. You see, where were you? Were you in like in Nebraska? 9 out of 10 of you met a Presidential candidate. I'm now curious. At some point in your life how many of you have actually met and maybe even before they became president, who you actually met someone who became president, raise your hands? 5 out of 10. Only in Iowa. So, you haven't gone to any rally?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, no. I work -- I own my own company so I work a lot. So, I do watch a lot on T.V. I've been between Cruz and Trump a lot.  Back and forth, back and forth. And I will say I have a lot of respect for Trump in the aspect of, he went against the norm and held his own rally and people lined up. I was watching it on the news. People were lined up all of the way down the street to get in to see him.

LUNTZ: And this vote is taking place in less than 24-hours. When did you settle?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I've been back and forth even to this morning, I talked to my brother who is in the military. And he has been diehard Trump. And, you know, I was over his house this morning talking to him and going back and forth and going, you know, through how it's going to affect us.

LUNTZ: And where are you now?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trump.

LUNTZ: So you actually switched from when we interviewed you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

LUNTZ: I hate when people do that. Who are you choosing between?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've done some flip-flopping too. I was, at the very beginning, a Carson, I think he's an up right man, I kind of moved toward Cruz and now I'm really moving toward Rubio. I am very impressed with Senator Rubio and the understanding when he speaks that he's giving Americans the importance of this election and how past generations have struggled and worked to make America great, and that we are going to continue to have those, but what kind of America are we? Are we going to move toward a socialized America or are we going to be the America that say the greatest generation was, and can we really as an America?

LUNTZ: So Megyn I know that you are -- that people are concerned that Iowa is the first in the nation, that they cast the first votes and whether it is sophisticated enough. How much television do you watch? How much information have you collected?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I watch and read the news every single day of the week.

LUNTZ: Have you seen every debate?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.

LUNTZ: Every one, have you seen every hour of every debate?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, I was at the debate.

LUNTZ: You actually went live.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah.

LUNTZ: Where did you start?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I started off as a Rand Paul supporter.

LUNTZ: And now?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: And, and now I am for Ted Cruz more as a protest vote against Donald Trump than anything else.

LUNTZ: And what are you protesting?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I respectfully disagree with some of the comments here that he's not conservative. He's stated before that he wants a socialized medicine system beyond Obamacare and this country. He's flip-flopped on his positions many, many times over the years. And, I can't stand by and let that happen.

LUNTZ: So what's more impactful to you, the debates, the ads or what you read in the newspaper?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The rallies.

LUNTZ: The rallies.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I've been to several rallies and I've had candidates come to where I work and actually speak, and that's where you really get to know a candidate and their passion and what they believe in. And for me that's what people should do. They should go out and actually listen to the candidate speak instead of having to try to, you know, debate and fight each other because you really get a good clue who that person is.

LUNTZ: So I got one more shot. Go ahead. Last comment.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm going to say the rallies are so important because if you can interact with them, you see their human character, what they believe in and why. Because that's the most important element that I find useful, because leadership is based on your character and insight.

LUNTZ: So whose undecided still, who might switch, raise your hands? OK.  So very quickly, what advice would you give the candidates when they -- when you wake up in the morning what should they be saying to you tomorrow morning to get your vote tomorrow night?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think it's all about the debt. I haven't heard hardly anything about the debt on the Republican side.

LUNTZ: Who you leaning towards now?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I would say probably Rubio, protest vote like what he was saying. Trump is just -- you can't say bimbo regularly and it's not political correctness, it's just basic human decency.

LUNTZ: I want to make the point, Megyn, that they're not talking necessarily about issues. There's a lot of conversation about the attributes of the candidate, we have to have the right policy but you also have to have the right persona. Back to you.

KELLY: Amazing. Amazing Group Frank, thank you. And I don't know who has doubts about the Iowans but they should be removed now.

Joining me with more, Jeff Kaufmann, the Chairman of the Republican Party of Iowa. Jeff, great to see you again.

JEFF KAUFMANN, CHAIRMAN OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY OF IOWA: Great to be back.

KELLY: So insightful, so smart, so well-informed. I can't imagine what it's like to have a candidates showing up at your work. Oh wait, they do, where I work. But, you know, for regular folks it's -- I mean they've been saturated by these guys in their positions. What have you seen so far in terms of voter regulation? How big do you think the turnout is going to be?

KAUFMANN: Well, just an hour, I think it's the first time I've said this to the press, just an hour ago, Republican Party of Iowa sent out a memo to all 1,681 precincts saying, you need to make more copies of materials you need. We, you know, we don't have any ...

KELLY: The voting cards?

KAUFMANN: Voting cards, the materials that you need for ...

KELLY: Why did you do that?

KAUFMANN: What we're hearing on the ground anecdotally, the weather looks like it's going to be cooperative in most of Iowa. It's, you know, it's more of a hunch than anything else. But, you know, you get a sense where you begin to feel it, and also, we are absolutely -- our phone is ringing off the hook. I mean 100 an hour approximately. To put that in perspective there's usually 4 or 5 an hour.

KELLY: People trying to find out, where do I go? Where can I caucus?

KAUFMANN: Everything, where -- caucus, how do I change my party? You name the questions they are asking us ...

KELLY: So if you're a Democrat today and you want to caucus as a Republican tomorrow you can do it?

KAUFMANN: Absolutely.

KELLY: Wow. All right. So -- because not every state allows that but you bet it's possible here. What are you seeing in terms of momentum for the candidates? I mean, whose name keeps bubbling up now?

KAUFMANN: I would say the top three according to the Des Moines Register Poll, I'm hearing a lot about Cruz and Trump. The angst that you just heard from some of the folks in terms of how they are going to settle and who they are going to vote for, we are hearing that a lot. Marco Rubio, we are hearing his name quite a bit. And, you know, to be honest with you, we still have people that are -- I mean, I can't think of any of the 11 candidates that today I haven't heard at least one Republican mention. I mean this thing is fluid.

KELLY: But as a betting man, if you were a betting man, right? Because you go the river boat casinos not far. Would you put any money on the lower tier, the guys who are in the 2 percent? Do you think there's any chance we're going to see some big surprise from that level?

KAUFMANN: Surprise, yes Megyn. I think -- remember, there's more than one ticket out of Iowa. And if you've got a person in 10th place and they make that jump to 5th place, that's a 4th ticket out of Iowa. You know, if you're count up to 5 tickets because they got momentum. They got something that they can take to New Hampshire.

KELLY: Explain on the republican side, when they show up to caucus tomorrow night at, you know, 7:00, do they talk to each other, or is that only on the Democratic side. On the Republican side it's their chance to persuade?

KAUFMANN: Yes. Almost every campaign will have somebody that will be at each of these 1,681 precincts that will speak for them. Sometimes that just happens organically, somebody will stand up and talk. And I'll tell you, never underestimate the power of that. I have heard so many stories over the year, the farmer, they never really heard him give a peep throughout the years, he stands up all of a sudden, he's moved to say something, that person has some power, that is more powerful than ads, more powerful than even the candidates.

I mean that's the power of the Iowa caucus. It's such a neat process and that's why I promise you drama tomorrow.

KELLY: Promise a drama, Jeff, thank you. Exciting.

KAUFMANN: Just for you.

KELLY: We're looking forward to it. Thanks for everything.

Well, so you just heard the state's top Republican official predicting a big turnout. And results could be driven by how many voters show up.

Brit Hume is next on what has turned into a very unpredictable vote.

Plus, Stirewalt had been out all day talking with voters at churches, stores and diners. Stirewalt was at the diners. He'll bring us the ground troop.

And then, Hillary Clinton is taking new heat tonight for her latest attempt to address the e-mail scandal looming over her campaign. We'll fact check her argument with one of the top national security lawyers in the country.  Wait until you hear what he's saying about her claims just ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There is no classified marked information on those e-mails sent or received me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Back now with a breaking news. From just a few moments ago, we heard it right here, the Iowa Republican Party Jeff Kaufmann, saying he expects GOP turnout to exceed 2012 numbers in 2012. We have been turnout could change the results in an election cycle that some pundits are calling less predictable than ever.

Brit Hume is Fox News Senior Political Analyst, he joins us now. Brit good to see you. So, this is interesting because, according to the latest numbers Donald Trump has a 16-point lead among first-time caucus goers. If you ask all caucus goers including the experienced ones Cruz has a 3-point lead.

BRIT HUME, FOX NEWS SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.

KELLY: So if they are seeing a surge, he's not giving an actual number to it but he's saying they are telling them printout more materials. We need more.

HUME: But I don't -- I think the polling suggests that Donald Trump does not need ...

KELLY: He doesn't need it.

HUME: A big surge from first-time voters.

KELLY: But it would help him.

HUME: It would he is leading among those who describe themselves as mainstream Republicans, which means if all things are equal or we get a normal or perhaps large turnout, he will be fine. And if there's a huge surge of new voters, he does very well among them, he could win going away.  So, you know, I think this poll is suggested it's going to be tough for one of his challengers to overtake him.

KELLY: And speaking of which, Ted Cruz is on the record although he then dialed it back, but he's on record having said to a group privately that he believes Trump wins in Iowa because it looks like he's going to win New Hampshire then he'll be unstoppable. What do you think?

HUME: Well that's a warning that he's giving, you know, a certainty -- one of the ways you can sometimes win over voters is to get them to be afraid of some other outcome, right? So, you say to the opponent, look this guy and they, you know, they're all listening to Cruz, right? This guy could be the nominee. You got to stop that. Vote for me. Look, I think it's not exactly true that if Trump wins here and Cruz failed to stop shim.  Cruz is badly hurt, right? Trump then goes on New Hampshire where he looks to be in very good shape, and that does creates a possibility where you have this bandwagon effect where you win the first two and then people thinking you're inevitable and then people start getting on the band wagon.  And then you run the table and you are the nominee.

KELLY: Do you believe in the Rubio momentum? I think that's how they're calling it Rubio momentum.

HUME: I think Rubio has got something going out here. And I think, for a while there his staff and team were trying to stir the pot a little bit to get people to say, you know I really wasn't thinking about Rubio because I didn't think he had a chance, but now, jeez, maybe he does, I'll vote for him. And if you take that too far and then you create expectations that he then failed to meet. No matter how you see it, he's losing which is always a danger in this game.

KELLY: Politics is weird.

HUME: It is indeed.

KELLY: Great to see you Brit.

HUME: Thanks Megyn.

KELLY: More with Brit later. Joining us now as well, you know these guys.  Chris Stirewalt and Howard Kurtz are here, I want to talk to them immediately. Oh we have an introductory thought. Here it is. The reporters who have covered Iowa, they're very bossy in the control room.  We'll tell you that one of the best things to do is go out and talk to the people. The people.

Chris Stirewalt and Howard Kurtz did that today, in a moment they'll tell us ...

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, R-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What we learned more than anything else in doing this is how incredible, smart, committed the people of the United States are. It's incredible. They want to see America great again. It's very simple. They want to see our country be great again.

SEN. TED CRUZ, R-TEXAS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We launched this campaign.  The New York sometimes promptly opine, Cruz cannot win, because the Washington elites despise him. I kind of thought that was the whole point of the campaign.

SEN. MARCO RUBIO, R-FLA., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: First thing I am going to do when I get to the oval office is I am going to repeal every single one of Barack Obama's unconstitutional executive orders. Every single one of them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Joining me Chris Stirewalt, our Fox News Digital Politics Editor and Howard Kurtz, host of "MediaBuzz". Good to see you both.

So what feeling are you getting?

CHRIS STIREWALT, FOX NEWS DIGITAL POLITICS EDITOR: Well, you know, you got to do that terrible thing journalist do where you say, I talked to five people and now I know everything about all times. That whatever happened in Iowa ...

KELLY: But you do hear a little buzz.

STIREWALT: No you -- so you go to rallies. That's where you go to events and talk to people. I went to church today and I had the most interesting conversation. One of the preachers, afterwards he came to us, I love you on "The Kelly File." Tell Megyn I said hello, he's your demo (ph). And, I said who are you going to caucus for. This is a preacher, and they just been talking about love and forgiveness. And he said, well, I came down to Trump. I said why?

And he said, it's just the anger, it is just the anger. And I thought if we are at a point where even a preacher, even a man of the cloth who's wearing his vestments ...

KELLY: Maybe he liked it when Trump held up the bible?

STIREWALT: No. I liked him angry. And, you know, what he said his second choice was? He said his second choice was Rubio and he hoped Rubio maybe might be the nominee. It would be if Rubio was the nominee but it was important for Iowa to tell the Republican Party that they're angry and Donald Trump matched it.

KELLY: This is sort of one of those moments how we were -- we're going to find out whether all of the rhetoric we've been hearing about angry Republicans wanting a revolution, wanting to overturn things, you know, the system is real or not.

STIREWALT: Just before coming over here I talked to a young women named Jenny who is trying to decide between Trump, Cruz and Rubio. And she plugged in, she was disappointed in Cruz over reports he only donated one percent of his income to the church, what happens to be the subject. Well how could be, and I talked to people, I am hearing a lot of good buzz will Rubio surprisingly but it's anecdotal. I've heard people swinging back and forth between Cruz and Rubio and Carly fan.

And the situation is so fluid and where the caucus is being so convoluted, of course, even the best pollster can't capture, none of these campaigns know what's going on. That's why they were all kind of trying to downplay expectations.

KELLY: So what persuade them, right? If 45 percent are still persuadable ...

STIREWALT: Right.

KELLY: With 24-hours left to go before the caucuses, what does it? What pushes them over the edge between now and tomorrow?

STIREWALT: Well now, first of all, you know that some are lying. They're actually not persuaded ...

KELLY: Why are they saying that?

STIREWALT: Because they want to flatter themselves to say, well I can be ...

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: They're considering all of the options.

STIREWALT: They want to talk to me outside of church.

KELLY: It could happen.

STIREWALT: No, but look. The reality is Iowa wants to have you pay attention to it. I will want us here tonight. I will want us watching ...

KELLY: They've won. They've won. What's your answer?

STIREWALT: But the answer is this, and pretty simple. Ted Cruz has the organization. He has the ground game, he has the people. They are going to turnout for him. The rest of it with Rubio and Trump, it's about the feeling. It's about the vibe. It's about the flow. And people like to catch the flow.

HOWARD KURTZ, FOX NEWS HOST, "MEDIABUZZ": We pundits sometimes over analyze these things. One guy said he liked Trump because his brother was in the military. And he liked Trump, it's that sort of thing. I'll tell you one thing. The whole essence of the Iowa causes is, there's a retail campaigning going to coffee shops and state fairs. Donald Trump has basically done the big rallies and that seems to have worked. And he hasn't really done the 99 counties. If he wins I think blows up the model, I mean, it helps to be a billionaire of course, it blows up the model.

KELLY: Who doesn't want a tour of the 757?

KURTZ: Shaking one hand at a time. Because, it's become such a television campaign even in a state like Iowa that take this stuff seriously (ph).

KELLY: It's going to be hard for anybody to replicate that. It's going to be hard for them to replicate Trump in any way. Good to see you both.

KURTZ: Thanks. You bet.

KELLY: So what if the polls are wrong? Senator Rand Paul is betting they are and he'll join us next to explain why and what it means.

Plus, Donald Trump is making a big play for tomorrow's evangelical vote.  We'll show you the latest from him and the Iowa insider next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Well, at least one of the Republican candidates tonight is saying, don't believe the hype of the polls. Senator Rand Paul is currently sitting in 5th in the latest Des Moines register poll out of Iowa. But he today he told me the press there is one big group of voters that may not be showing up in any of the research. A group that he thinks could make for a big surprise when the results finally come in.

Joining me is Senator Rand Paul. Senator, great to see you. So, why shouldn't we believe the polls?

UNIDENTIFIED CROWD (chanting): President Paul.

PAUL: I think some of the evidence is in the noise you hear behind me. We have over 1,000 kids tonight at the University of Iowa. We have an amazing amount of enthusiasm. The young people have called over a million people in Iowa.  We think we're going to surprise people. And we think maybe the day of the pollsters really being that accurate maybe gone. And that you may find something really surprising tomorrow night, particularly if all these kids show up and vote for me tomorrow.

KELLY: It happened with your dad who was underestimated by some polls.

PAUL: Yup. And he was here with me tonight. We had a big crowd. A lot of our family was here. And, we're looking for a strong finish. We think in the debate we pointed out some of the inconsistencies with the others.  And, I think actually Cruz's faltering at the very end here. And we think we're going to see a big rise at the end and also a lot of student turnout.

KELLY: Who do you say is the main competition on the GOP side?

PAUL: You know, I think it's a variety of folks. I think our votes, you know, when you look at first, second, third choices it can be a variety of things. But I think my voice is actually distinctive and I'm the only one saying, we don't need to, you know, make the sand glow over the Middle East, we don't need to be locking up a generation of young people for marijuana, and we don't need to be collecting all of their phone records.

I think I'm the only one on the state saying that, so it provides for me, I think a distinct voice from all the others.

KELLY: Now, which of those three positions do you think accounts for all the young people who we see behind you?

PAUL: A lot of it is privacy. You know, I have three teenaged boys and they communicate with all of their friends, their family and everybody through their cell phone. They don't understand why the government would collect all of their phone records. But I will tell you, some of the loudest applause lines tonight were -- that I'm not going to send them to another war.

KELLY: There we go (inaudible). Now, you know, the conventional wisdom is, there are three tickets out of Iowa, you know, it's going to be -- they say according today's polls is Cruz, Trump, Rubio, do you reject that theory? Do you also believe whoever is in the three, that there are only three tickets out?

PAUL: You know I think in a big field, there will be a winnowing effect.  I think those who joined to out in Iowa probably won't go on. But I don't think it there's an exact number of candidates. You know, many of the candidates that we're almost assure they are going to be, Bush, Kasich, Christie, they're probably going on to New Hampshire. So I don't know if there's an exact number of tickets because many people are placing more emphasis on New Hampshire than in Iowa.

But I can tell you that if you don't do well, you don't appear to be rising in Iowa you won't do very well New Hampshire. So for those who were banking on New Hampshire of bringing them back after doing poorly here in Iowa, I think it's difficult because there is definitely is momentum and there is a roller coaster ride that you can ride out of Iowa and we plan on being right there on the wave.

KELLY: There you have it, Senator Rand Paul with the prediction that he will be ahead of Christie, and I -- I think is it Carson was that the last one? We're going to hold you down, we're going to hold you for that and rerun (ph) the tape we. Thank you for being here tonight and all the best to you. Good night.

With the first to Sanders verses Clinton showdown coming tomorrow. Mrs. Clinton is again trying to explain her e-mail scandal that's been hanging over her campaign. We have a fact check of her claims with one of the top national security lawyers in the country who knows a lot about what's classified and what's not.

Plus, on the Republican side, a new battle is breaking out in the fight for evangelical voters. Iowa Congressman Steve King is live with us next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Breaking tonight in the final hours before the Iowa caucuses.  Republican frontrunner Donald Trump is taking to facebook to appeal to evangelical voters. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I really appreciate the support given to me by the evangelicals.  They've been incredible, every poll shows how well I'm doing with them.  And, you know, my mother gave me this bible, this very bible many years ago. In fact it's her writing right here. She wrote the name and my address. And it's just very special to me. And, again, I want to thank the evangelicals. I will never let you down.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Our next guess is Steve King, he's an Iowa Congressman and a Republican and he's backing Texas Senator Ted Cruz for president. Great to see you Congressman.

REP. STEVE KING, R-IOWA: Good to be, thank you Megyn.

KELLY: How do you fell about Ted Cruz's chances?

KING: Well I think they're good. I think it's going to be very close to a photo finish. And, I'm in print this prediction that it's a bits of binary decision for the voters who have come out, now is it Trump or Cruz, Cruz or Trump. And the people that are in this, we need to send a thank you to the to the others and, either vote for Cruz if you don't, it's a vote for Trump.

KELLY: What makes the difference? Why? I mean, for those people who are still struggling with that decision?

KING: Well, I think the difference is, that the poll say, that it's head to head, that way, and so the people that are loyal to, say Huckabee and Santorum, maybe Carson, they're -- it's nice that they worked all of this.  We are thankful that they're candidates, but it's to the point now where, we have an opportunity to advance a full spectrum constitutional Christian conservative to the White House who understands the Article 3 and will make the appointments to the Supreme Court and the right appointment to the court, and that will direct the destiny of the country in a positive direction.

And, I think that's a decision and, with the evangelical commercial here, I just heard Donald Trump's speech before Liberty University, I saw it live, and he used a couple words of profanity that are prohibited on the campus along with the way he referenced the bible. So, I think that voice doesn't resinate quite the way he may wish it does.

KELLY: Well, why do you think he is doing so well be evangelicals? The Fox News Poll, latest one shows Ted Cruz got 31 percent, Donald Trump very close behind with 29 percent, Marco Rubio with 10 percent, and the Des Moines Register Poll shows that 47 percent of Iowans are evangelicals, the voters, they're evenly divided between those two top men.

KING: That polling sounds like a dead heat. But, you know, I think I know the people her in Iowa and I have represent Northwest and most of North Central Iowa. And, they are driven by the values of life and marriage and religious liberty and constitutional values. And, you know, Donald Trump's record doesn't support that.

So he makes a compelling argument here and he's running a commercial right at them. But, Ted Cruz's life does support that, his life from little on up where he was spoon fed the bible and the constitution at the kitchen table. I was spoon fed the code of Iowa and the constitution and my bible was on the end table. I understand what that means it goes in your bones.  It's a conviction, it's been it's like memorize the constitution and taught it and debated it all over Texas in high school, and then went off to law school and demonstrated his commitment to the constitutional and religious principles.

And everybody they fought (ph), nine times before the United States Supreme Court. And if there are going to be two, three or maybe even four appointments to the United States Supreme Court are coming up for the next president of the United States we better have a president that gets that right, that understands that or our constitution will be obliterated by (inaudible).

KELLY: So what's make the difference? What makes a difference, turnout?

KING: The difference is the turnout. And, that the turnout -- we don't really know at this point, but, I would say this, I don't want to put a little over -- number out there for viewers. I'm going to pick 135,000.

KELLY: Its 122 last time around.

KING: Yes, so this will be a record by 13,000 or so. And so, even with a record turnout, I think if it is 135,000 or less Ted Cruz wins in Iowa. If that number soars above there in a significant way, then I think it's Donald Trump and he will have accomplished something we have never seen before which would be this amazing turnout of people that have never gone to caucus before. That's a tough task.

KELLY: Congressman Steve King, fascinating insight. Thank you sir.

KING: It is.

KELLY: Good to see you.

KING: Good to see you, Thank you Megyn.

KELLY: Well Donald Trump has appeal to a lot of voters with his top talk on immigration but in a "New York Times" editorial this weekend, the "Times" suggested that Mr. Trump uses his promise of a wall as a tactic to rile up voters.

Writing, "At a meeting with the Times's editorial writers, Mr. Trump talks about the art of applause lines. You know, he said of his events, if it gets a little boring, if I see people starting to sort of maybe thinking about leaving, I can sort of tell the audience, I just say, "We will build the wall" and they go nuts."

David Wohl is an attorney and a big Trump supporter. David, good to see you.

So the Times is clearly trying to take a shot at Trump with that suggesting it maybe it's not heartfelt he is just using it to rile people up. You buy that?

DAVID WOHL, ATTORNEY AND TRUMP SUPPORTER: Right. Well, when you say this, it's hard to find at least for me a bored person at a Trump rally, so I'm not sure if that ever happens.

But yeah, you know what? I think that the reality is the wall at this point is more than a physical object. When he refers the wall but the wall he wants to build and build Mexico for to stop immigrants and terrorists.  It's also -- Megyn, I've got to say it's a symbol.

It's a symbol of regaining control over America on economic or political or social level. It's something that we haven't had the last seven years and it's something that is really appealing.

So I think that when he mentions that, people just jump on and say, "Yes."  For once, it's the iron fist approach rather than the pretty please approach. So that's why it's so appealing right now.

KELLY: What do you make of -- earlier in the show, we had a Frank Luntz focus group. And one guy was saying, you know, an Iowan saying, "I don't like the language he uses. I don't like the language about women, et cetera. And for me that's was -- that's a turnoff", he said. Does that bother you?

WOHL: Well, I think Megyn a lot of rock stars, very successful people, very talented genius people have eccentricities and I think that's one of his and saying, off the cuff -- of off the cuff remarks that do offend people from time to time. I think, if he could take them back, I think he would. But that's just part of his appeal. He's so, so out of the ordinary Megyn, so unorthodox that people grab on and then say, "Yes."

You know what? This is somebody who's not going to be a standard politician. This is somebody who's going to take things and sort of twist them in a way they haven't been done before. And when he says, like you said, when he wants to make America great, it's more of a movement than just a slogan. And that's why they're grasping on to him.

And yes, some of the things have been offensive. But you know what? It's just like they rub right off and it's a tough well and done and it's working for him.

KELLY: Well, let me ask you because we've known each other for a long time. You're a successful .

WOHL: Yeah.

KELLY: . and talented lawyer. Are you .

WOHL: Thank you, Megyn.

KELLY: . would you consider yourself a conservative? I mean, is it -- are you one of these conservatives who says, "I don't care that he may not have been a lifelong conservative." Or you just somebody who -- I mean, like how would you describe yourself ideologically? So we're not kind of get .

WOHL: Ideologically conservative maybe a libertarian, with libertarian bend as well. But Megyn, I -- this is what I think about that. And a lot of people are condemning him and criticizing him because they're saying he's flip-flopped on numerous issues.

But where have we heard that before, Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama, Ted Cruz on amnesty. So the idea that Donald Trump cannot evolve politically and everybody else can is not acceptable to me. I mean he is going to evolve.  He lives. He learns. He speaks with people. He is counseled by people.  And that's what gave him the current political bend that he has now.

And I got to say, Megyn, I believe him when he says what he wants to do now as far as the Second Amendment, as far as defunding planned parenthood. I believe that when he says that he's going to stick to that. And apparently, a lot of Iowans do as well.

KELLY: And we will know, we hope this time tomorrow whether .

WOHL: We will.

KELLY: . he gets pulls out a victory here in the State of Iowa.

Great to see you David.

WOHL: Absolutely. Thank you, Megyn.

KELLY: Well, just ahead, Hillary Clinton getting called out for her latest attempt to explain away the e-mail questions dogging her campaign.

Chief White House Correspond, Ed Henry, is next on that.

Plus, one of the nation's top national security lawyers, he will fact check the claims that she's making now that she did nothing wrong here. Don't miss Mark Zaid.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: There is no classified material. So, I'm certainly well aware of the classification requirements and did not send classified material.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Breaking tonight, less than 24-hours before Iowans cast the first votes in the nomination of the next president of the United States.  Hillary Clinton is getting called out on her latest attempt to explain away the e-mail scandal that's been hanging over her campaign.

Chief White House Correspondent Ed Henry is live in Des Moines, Iowa tonight. Ed?

ED HENRY, CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Megyn, here in Des Moines tonight, Hillary Clinton is making sort of closing argument and has one of the best crowds of this entire campaign. Over 2,600 people as she tries to push back against Bernie Sanders. They are now locked in a dead heat as her big lead has evaporated in large part because of that e-mail controversy.

And, people have eyebrows raised now because of an explanation she gave about why this controversy has dogged her. She gave it on a local TV. station, WHO, just this morning.

Look at this, quote, "The best explanation I heard of this, I heard yesterday in Des Moines from a man I was shaking hands with". He said quote, "This is like you drive through the same intersection for four years and the speed limit is 35, then you move out of town and they change the speed limit to 25 and they start sending tickets to people who drove while the speed limit was 35, they drove over 25.'' She said. That was told to her yesterday but we checked the tape, turns out almost three weeks ago, she used the similar anecdote.

Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: It would be like somebody in the Department of Transportation setting speed limits, let's say the speed limit was 35. And then retro actively the police say, "Well you know what, that speed limit should have been 25." So let's go back and look at anybody who drove down that road and exceeded 25, we need --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HENRY: Sounds awfully similar to what she's saying today. She heard just yesterday, gives you an idea of one of the reasons why this whole question of trust, being honest has dogged her throughout the campaign.

We'll find it out tomorrow night though, whether it matters in a Democratic caucus. It could be something that's a bigger problem for her in a general election if she gets past Sanders. Megyn?

KELLY: Ed, is any other network going to fact check her on that? I mean that is people are laughing. Like everybody in here is like -- it is obvious what happened.

HENRY: Right. She is saying it was told to me yesterday the guy was shaking my hand yesterday. Then there's a tape where she said the same thing three weeks ago.

KELLY: I mean, it's like, in the first tape did she say somebody told it to her or was she saying it herself? Because maybe she had a conversation with the guy yesterday and said, you know what it is just like he repeated it back to her?

HENRY: Maybe the man heard her saying it three weeks ago and repeated it back to her. That might be the best explanation.

KELLY: Good to see Ed Henry.

Well the e-mail question comes up in almost every major interview for Mrs. Clinton. And this was no exception when she appeared this morning with George Stephanopoulos at ABC News.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, ABC NEWS: What do you know about those e-mails that we don't?

CLINTON: Well, here's what I know. I know that this is I think continuation of the story that has been playing out for months. There is no classified marked information on those e-mails sent or received by me.

STEPHANOPOULOS: But, the nondisclosure agreement you signed as Secretary of State says that that really is not relevant. It said, classified information is marked or unmarked classified, and that all of you are trained to treat all of that sensitively and should know the difference.

CLINTON: Well, of course, and that's exactly what I did. I take classified information very seriously. Well, look, as I've said many times it was permitted. My predecessors had engaged in a similar practice. It was not the best choice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Well we wanted to fact check some of that so we reached out to Mark Zaid. He's a National Security Lawyer who represents Covert Intelligence Officers all of the time. And his firm is handling three lawsuits seeking Mrs. Clinton's e-mail from the state department. Mark great to see you.  So, all right. Let's just -- start with this claim that there were no markings on these documents saying classified so she is exonerated on that basis. Let's play the sound bite. I want to get your reaction. Sound bite number one.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: When you receive information of course there has to be some marking, some indication that someone down the chain had thought that this was classified and that was not the case.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: True or false?

MARK ZAID, NATIONAL SECURITY LAWYERS:  False. I mean, any information that is classified is supposed to be properly marked. But oftentimes you could obviously have the information that is not properly marked. In fact, during Secretary Clinton's tenure as secretary, one of its employees Steven Kim was charge under the Espionage Act and prosecuted for verbally disclosing classified information. Obviously that information wasn't marked.

KELLY: So, she is not saved once and for all by the fact that the documents may not have had the marking classified on them. That is a red herring.

ZAID: No. And, as was said in the ABC interview, Secretary Clinton signs the same secrecy nondisclosure obligations that all of us do. I have a clearance and when we come across classified information even when not marked, we are supposed to report that to the government. I've done it on multiple occasions.

KELLY: Now she also claims that you can't get classified information off of the classified system and put it on the non-classified system. Watch, listen here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: You can't get information off the classified system in the state department to put on to an unclassified system no matter what that system is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: True or false?

ZAID: Well, it's probably true. But that's not what anyone has alleged.  The state department system, I presume, I haven't worked on it specifically, like many of the other agencies, so that there are precautions and limitations on printing information from the classified system. Using e-mail with the classified system. But what is alleged here is that someone took a sentence or so, the brown cow jumped over the moon isn't a classified document. If it you take that sentence and type it in an unclassified e-mail it doesn't mean that sentence is now unclassified.  It just means it is not in the original classified document. That's what is being alleged for the most part as far as we know.

KELLY: So, when you hear, you know, I mean, how do you see this situation?  Like, what is your overall take on her maintaining 1,200 documents, they now say, on an unsecured server that were classified?

ZAID: And in fact the explanation you heard in the earlier segment with ABC she was talking apples and oranges. There's a difference between classified information and using this private server. That's what some of the predecessors did. Not a private server but at least sending e-mails on a private e-mail account. Nobody was doing hopefully sending classified information on unclassified system.

What I have see is -- we don't know from a criminal standpoint. I mean I've seen obviously pundits on the left or the right and everybody saying either, there's no way she'll be prosecuted, she definitely will be prosecuted. The who, what, why, when, I think we're waiting to see. I need to see the context of some of these documents and what information is at issue.

But, what I do see from a political standpoint whoever is advising her is giving her poor advice factually speaking. She is making the wrong arguments and it enables those of us who have no -- nothing in this fight.  I don't care who wins. I'm going to be suing whoever is in the White House come next year. So, for her to be able to tee this up.

KELLY: Just making it too easy on you.

ZAID: Yeah. I mean just stick to. Stick to the real facts.

KELLY: Mark I going to cut you off at here. We forgot the hard break.  And thank you for being here.

ZAID: Anytime Megyn.

KELLY: Don't go away.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

The candidates are going to want to talk to "The Kelly File." See who shows up for special "Kelly File" tomorrow night at 11:00 p.m. live from Iowa.  Thanks for watching everybody. I'm Megyn Kelly. This is "The Kelly File" live from the beautiful state Capitol of Des Moines.

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