This is a rush transcript from "Hannity," January 25, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
SEAN HANNITY, HOST: Welcome to "Hannity." Tonight, the Iowa caucuses are only seven days away, and brand-new Fox News poll numbers show that Donald Trump surging in Iowa. Trump leads the pack with 34 percent, Senator Ted Cruz is in second, 23 percent, followed by Senator Marco Rubio, who has 12 percent. Next are Dr. Ben Carson and Senator Rand Paul, then it's Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum.
Over in New Hampshire, the latest Fox News numbers show that Donald Trump in out front with a whopping 31 percent. Cruz is second with 14, Marco Rubio in third with 13 percent. And they're followed by Kasich and Jeb Bush, then it's Chris Christie, Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Mike Huckabee.
Here to talk about this and more, Fox News senior correspondent Geraldo Rivera and a rare in-studio appearance by Laura Ingraham, editor-in-chief of Lifezette.com.
Good to see you. Welcome...
HANNITY: I haven't seen you in studio in ages. Good to see you.
LAURA INGRAHAM, LIFEZETTE.COM: Good to see you.
HANNITY: All right, let me start with something that's a little off-base because we keep talking about the polls. Let's look at how wrong polling has been before Iowa. Look at this. Seven days before, back in 2008, Obama was at 27 percent He ended up with 37 percent. Clinton was showing 29. What did she end up with? 29. OK. But Obama went up a full 10 points.
Now, look at the Republicans back in 2012. Look at Rick Santorum, 7.7 percent. Now, he won. They didn't find out until a week later, but he won, and he had 24.6! You know, that's nearly a 20-point disparity in the polls. They have been wrong often there, Laura. How big an impact is this?
INGRAHAM: Yes, when you talk to the pollsters -- a friend of mine was just talking to one of the NBC pollsters, and it's difficult. You can call three times -- like, call one number three times, still not get an answer.
You know, how many of us don't pick up their home numbers? I mean, I still have a home number. I mean, I'm old-fashioned. But when I see something research, like, Hello? Hang up. I mean, you just -- I just don't have time to deal with it.
So how -- whether it's really capturing the sentiment of the people, I don't think we know. But we do know that Trump has been leading in most polls other than in Iowa for a long time now.
HANNITY: I would think if...
INGRAHAM: So they might be underestimating.
HANNITY: If I'm a candidate at this point, I'm thinking I want to...
INGRAHAM: You better be there.
HANNITY: ... underpromise and overdeliver.
INGRAHAM: Right. You better be there.
HANNITY: Lower expectations a little bit a good idea, you think?
GERALDO RIVERA, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: I think that -- let me just say something about Iowa and the caucuses. They have charm. They are a kind of throwback. But I think that when you look at Santorum's example, particularly, he won, we didn't know about it until South Carolina primary, a full -- more than a week later, totally dissipated whatever influence the Iowa caucuses had.
And I think that you will -- you might have a similar situation here, where they are so inefficient in terms of tallying, unless someone routes -- and it's possible that Trump can -- he does have momentum.
INGRAHAM: I think -- you know, I remember I was at the Iowa caucuses in 2008, and when you're there -- I know you've been to them, Sean. You've been to them. But when you go into the caucus rooms, you really get a quick temperature on the people. You -- I could tell that night, and I said it with my producer, that this is Obama's. It was so much energy for Obama! You could sense there that there was a movement happening.
I'm not saying Iowa always gets it right, but something different is happening in this election cycle both on the left and on the right. There's clearly a sense of complete dissatisfaction with the political parties, the two-party system in this country. They're not delivering for the middle class.
Geraldo and I have talked about this. Blue collar workers feel dissatisfied. It's not a personal animus toward people. It's a sense that the stuff they've been doing isn't working. And you feel that in Iowa.
HANNITY: (INAUDIBLE) talked about now for years on our radio program and then on TV. And that is, that the Republicans in Washington have failed.
INGRAHAM: Totally failed.
HANNITY: And as a result of the weakness, their fecklessness, their ineptitude, their unwillingness to fight...
HANNITY: ... they have created a scenario where the two top candidates for Republicans in the polls garner nearly 60 percent of the vote, and they're both hated by the establishment.
INGRAHAM: Well, and everyone's worried about losing their purchase (ph) of power.
INGRAHAM: So everyone's worried that, Oh, my gosh, I don't have any influence over Ted Cruz or Donald Trump. I don't know anything about him, or he's -- he's -- he's narcissistic or he's haughty (ph) or he's not a conservative. Well, he's got something. And instead of just trashing or excommunicating people in the party who are garnering a big...
HANNITY: I was really happy...
INGRAHAM: ... following -- why do that?
HANNITY: I was -- you excoriated National Review. But I'll get to that in a second. Geraldo, you go first.
RIVERA: No, no. I was just going to say that Trump is changing the game in the sense that he's hearkening back. What was Ronald Reagan before he became a politician? Ronald Reagan was a wonderful actor, pitchman, spokesman...
INGRAHAM: He was the governor of California.
RIVERA: ... later governor of California. He related to people at a different level, a visceral level...
HANNITY: Do you know where the term "amiable dunce" came from? That came from Republicans.
INGRAHAM: Republicans trashing Reagan in the '70s.
HANNITY: That was not -- that was not the Democrats.
RIVERA: The thing is -- just going back to Laura's point about the energy in 2008 for Barack Obama in Iowa -- you could, if you were sloppy, say that Bernie Sanders "Feel the Bern" has some of that energy. But I think that Obama's tacit endorsement of Hillary Clinton today...
RIVERA: ... Politico interview will mute Bernie Sanders. I think it is a pivotal moment, and we shouldn't brush over it.
HANNITY: But she's losing by 20-some-odd points in Iowa -- I'm sorry, New Hampshire. And I would say Bernie's 50-50 to win Iowa, too.
INGRAHAM: I think, again, the old guard isn't cutting it. And again, it's not personal. It's what's happened to families. It's what's happened to middle class people, middle-income workers. They feel like, basically, the two-party system has nothing to offer them at all.
RIVERA: But did you see Bernie today at that town hall? He puts up poor people, says, I can't live on $10,000. I'm divorced...
INGRAHAM: I'm talking about the emotions.
RIVERA: ... and I can't support my children...
RIVERA: What, is the government's supposed to step in...
INGRAHAM: No, no, no. That's not it.
RIVERA: ... pay the child support?
INGRAHAM: But the government is not supposed to...
INGRAHAM: ... have mass migration of people into the United States unless we have so many jobs being spun off that we desperately need more workers in the country, which we obviously don't. Otherwise, we'd have rising wages.
HANNITY: We'll get into this later. Do either of you think that Bloomberg -- you know, if anything, I think he hurts the Democrats.
INGRAHAM: I don't -- I mean, this big play about Bloomberg -- I know it's an exciting story for the moment, but he's open borders He's against the 2nd Amendment. The big concern, of course, is, you know, the supergulps and the sugar and all that.
INGRAHAM: I just don't see that, with everything affecting this country --
HANNITY: Pro-abortion, gay rights, and he...
INGRAHAM: I just don't -- I...
INGRAHAM: ... explain that Venn diagram with Donald Trump.
INGRAHAM: I don't see that at all.
RIVERA: I like him a lot. I like Michael Bloomberg a lot.
INGRAHAM: I mean, it's not person!
RIVERA: I think he was a great mayor, but...
INGRAHAM: I like him, too.
RIVERA: ... remember, he spent an awful lot of money the third term running in New York and barely won. I don't -- he doesn't have that -- he's charming in his own way, but...
HANNITY: No, he's dull and he's boring and he's...
RIVERA: ... charisma, that bigness of Trump.
INGRAHAM: You're going to hear people, like, Which billionaire is more lovable?
INGRAHAM: Bloomberg? Or which one is more irrational?:
HANNITY: I want the guy that let's me choose how much Coca-Cola I want!
INGRAHAM: Who's more about freedom and individuals choosing for themselves? Or who's going to control your decisions more? Could we talk about the NR thing just for a second?
HANNITY: Yes, but I was glad -- I was ticked off for a lot of reasons. They did the same thing back in 2012 to Newt Gingrich...
INGRAHAM: National Review.
HANNITY: ... and -- yes, National Review -- and Governor Rick Perry. And that bothered me. I'm like, Really? You're the kingmaker?
INGRAHAM: Well, Phyllis Schlafly, the matriarch of conservatism -- her book, "Choice not an Echo" in the early 1960s really set the tone for Reagan and Goldwater. Amazing book.
She came on my radio show last week, along with Huckabee and Pat Buchanan. And one after...
INGRAHAM: ... the other came on just saying, Look. I mean, no offense, but who are they to judge what's conservative? I mean, they're -- they're rallying around Paul Ryan when he just greenlit Obama's budget, when he just gave Obama trade promotion authority. And Phyllis Schlafly said, Well, they weren't around helping me when I was stopping the ERA. And by the way, she loves Buckley, but Buckley basically was against -- was for our turning over the Panama Canal.
So again, why excommunicate people in the movement? Don't excommunicate!
HANNITY: Buckley was not exactly somebody that didn't use choice words and descriptions of people. Just go back to his debates. I can think of some of the words he used...
RIVERA: Which (INAUDIBLE)
HANNITY: ... by Gore Vidal.
RIVERA: Gore Vidal? Oh, He went after his sexuality...
HANNITY: Oh, yes.
RIVERA: ... at a time when it was...
HANNITY: And he used a pejorative that would not be used in today's world.
INGRAHAM: Think about the Republican Party. We need to bring people into the party, and we have to realize that Bushism is dead. The idea that you're going to resurrect Bushism because some of your -- you know, your friends and your supporters...
RIVERA: Bushism is what expanded the tent.
HANNITY: I mean, George H. -- George W. Bush.
INGRAHAM: He didn't win a majority vote in 2004.
RIVERA: In 2004, George W. Bush got 44 percent of the Latino vote.
RIVERA: I mean, that's where his victory was...
INGRAHAM: Well, no...
RIVERA: ... formulated...
INGRAHAM: George W. Bush...
HANNITY: Let me stop you both. Does Trump get more minorities? Does he get more of the black vote...
HANNITY: ... Hispanic vote?
RIVERA: He has the potential, but he has to back off...
RIVERA: ... the harsh policies that are obviously...
HANNITY: Does he get 20 percent of the Democrats?
INGRAHAM: I think there is potential for massive crossover appeal...
HANNITY: For Trump.
INGRAHAM: ... in a common sense...
HANNITY: Just Trump?
INGRAHAM: ... populist message.
HANNITY: What about Cruz?
INGRAHAM: I think Cruz could have it, to some extent. I think Trump probably has a better chance of getting it. Anecdotally, I'm finding that as I travel the country, African-Americans, Hispanics, single women, people -- I talk to them, like, You're for Trump? And, like, it's stunning.
RIVERA: I don't know who's for Cruz. I mean, I don't. I know that he's polling, OK, but I...
HANNITY: By the way, he's an Hispanic. You keep saying...
RIVERA: I admit that he is Hispanic.
INGRAHAM: Oh, he admits that!
HANNITY: That's really gracious of you.
INGRAHAM: Thanks, Geraldo!
RIVERA: ... a citizen of the United States.
HANNITY: All right...
RIVERA: Maybe not a natural-born citizen...
HANNITY: Good to see you both.
INGRAHAM: Great to see you.
HANNITY: In studio. You didn't...
HANNITY: All right, coming up next tonight on "Hannity"...
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PHIL ROBERTSON, "DUCK DYNASTY": I've looked at the candidates. Ted Cruz is my man. He fits the bill.
WILLIE ROBERTSON, "DUCK DYNASTY": The man I'm standing behind this year to be the next president of the United States, to help make America great again, ladies and gentlemen, Donald Trump!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: All right, two of "Duck Dynasty's" biggest stars endorsing different presidential candidates for the White House, Willie and Phil Robertson, one supports Ted, one supports Trump. We'll debate coming up next.
Then later, according to reports, former New York City, well, nanny mayor, Mayor Bloomberg, is now considering a 2016 White House run as an independent. We're going to tell you which candidate this would hurt the most if he does run.
Plus, the countdown to Iowa's on. Senator Rand Paul in studio to explain his strategy, how he thinks he can win the Republican nomination, straight ahead.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
W. ROBERTSON: The man I have the honor of introducing is not afraid to tell it like it is. He's not very politically correct. He's very bold. He loves his country. And he firmly stands behind the 2nd Amendment. I'm not talking about my father, OK? The man I'm standing behind this year to be the next president of the United States, to help make America great again, ladies and gentlemen, Donald Trump!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: All right, that was "Duck Dynasty's" Willie Robertson endorsing Donald Trump for president late last week. Now, this comes just one week after his father, Phil Robertson, endorsed Trump's chief rival, Senator Ted Cruz. Really. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
P. ROBERTSON: I've looked at the candidates. Ted Cruz is my man. He fits the bill. He's Godly. He loves us. He's the man for the job, and he will go duck hunting because today, we're going. Ted Cruz is my man. I'm voting for him.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: All right, so what's behind this political split in the Robertson family? Joining us now are two men to explain it themselves, "Duck Dynasty's" Willie Robertson, his father, Phil Robertson. Guys, good to see you both.
All right, so here I imagine the end of "Duck Dynasty" and you gather around the table for that big meal which I had the privilege of eating once, and all of a sudden, Willie's saying, And I pray this country elects Donald Trump, and Phil, you're saying, And I pray that the Lord will bless us with Ted Cruz.
How's that going to work out?
P. ROBERTSON: Well, listen, son -- hey, son, it could have been worse. He could have said, Dad, I'm going with Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders.
HANNITY: No. He would be expelled from the family...
HANNITY: I know you. He's out!
W. ROBERTSON: Then we would have some words, my man.
P. ROBERTSON: Yes, I'd order a pizza from my house if that happened.
HANNITY: Forget ordering pizza, I think you'd be the next duck that got hunted!
All right, so let's talk about the split because, to be honest, this is clearly between the two of these men. If you look at some polls, they've got 60-plus percent of the vote! So your family is representative of where a lot of people are.
Phil, you're the patriarch of the family. I'll ask you. Why Ted?
P. ROBERTSON: The writer of our Constitution, James Madison, said this Constitution was written for a moral and religious people. It's wholly inadequate for any other. So I just looked at Cruz. He stood out in my mind as being a moral and religious man. I thought to myself, Good enough for me. It's about that simple on my part.
Willie, he's a grown man. He can vote for who he wants to. You know what I'm saying?
HANNITY: Understood. And you taught him to be himself. Willie, why Trump?
W. ROBERTSON: Well, I think since that was written, I think now our system is -- honestly, I think it's broken, and I think a lot of the politicians are just more of the same, and I want somebody in there who can shake it up, who can change it up, who are not after the money, and you know, after people telling them what to say. And I like a man who puts his money where his mouth is and pays for his own thing and he's not in debt to anybody and says, Hey, I'm going to do what I'm going to do.
I think he's the man for the job. He's run a business, and I think, you know, so many of these people come in, they've never run a business. They don't know what they're doing when they get there. And I just like somebody who's run a business, especially New York City. I think that's an advantage. I think you couldn't be that successful in New York City without having to be able to work with different kinds of people, and I think he's done that, and I think he will actually work with other people.
P. ROBERTSON: You got to remember, Hannity, I don't like -- I don't dislike Donald Trump and his sons at all. I don't dislike them at all. And if he wins the nomination, hey, I'm all in with him. Think about it, the alternative here. Hillary Clinton? Bernie Sanders? So it's not that I dislike him. I just said...
P. ROBERTSON: ... I'm going with the Godliest.
HANNITY: I'm thinking of the alternative!
HANNITY: You're not making me very hopeful here, Phil. Are you the same way...
P. ROBERTSON: Hey?
W. ROBERTSON: Yes?
W. ROBERTSON: Well, no. I mean, no. I think Trump has a chance to win. That's why, obviously, I'm behind him because I think he does have a chance to win. We see that in the polls. And I don't dislike Senator Cruz. But again, I go back to somebody who's run something, who's done something in business that impresses me and impresses everybody.
And you know, I mean, when, you know, first-time senators come in, I'm not sure. I don't know what -- you know, they've done and what they -- how they can -- what they've done to run a business or anything like that. And that's what excites me about Trump, among other things. I mean, he's a family man. He's a good guy. And I think he's on the right path, and I think a lot of America's seeing that.
HANNITY: All right, so where's the rest of the family on all of this? Is everyone -- is the whole family split now down the middle?
P. ROBERTSON: It's a good question.
W. ROBERTSON: I don't know. We're all lobbying for each other. See, that's what's happening at the dinner table. So everybody's trying to get people -- Donald Trump, Jr., was in the other day and Jase -- they went hunting, and so, you know...
P. ROBERTSON: That guy was a good shot, by the way.
W. ROBERTSON: Who's a better shot? No, you hunted with Cruz. Who's a better short, Trump or Cruz?
P. ROBERTSON: The best shotgunner, I'm going to have to give it to the Trump kid.
P. ROBERTSON: Oh, he can -- he can shoot. Good shot and a good dude.
HANNITY: Yes. By the way, and when I went to West Monroe, I noticed I didn't get taken duck hunting. You guys -- you know, I got to sit at the table and sip the wine with Willie, and you actually had me cook my own steak, which was OK. I didn't mind. But I mean, I...
P. ROBERTSON: You have to remember -- Hannity, you have to remember.
P. ROBERTSON: We just took a good look at you and said, Would he go out there and kill a duck? And we're, like, Nah.
W. ROBERTSON: I was going to take you to play tennis, so I thought you'd be...
HANNITY: ... beat you on the golf course.
P. ROBERTSON: ... the country club.
HANNITY: Wait a minute! I've been a -- I've been a pistol marksman, Phil, since I'm 11 years old. I carried a gun my whole adult life.
P. ROBERTSON: Really?
HANNITY: Except I live up here in New York. I carry a pistol.
P. ROBERTSON: Well, let's see. Cruz has been duck hunting and Don Jr. has been duck hunting. Hannity, you just need to load up. Talk to your wife about it. See if she'll let you go for a couple of days. Get down here and do some duck hunting. But you have to check with your wife before you come.
W. ROBERTSON: Of course he does.
HANNITY: What do you mean? I don't have to check -- I'm the head of the household. It's biblical, Phil. I read it somewhere.
HANNITY: All right, guys.
P. ROBERTSON: Get your grip (ph) together. Come on down here.
HANNITY: All right. Thank you both for being with us. Seriously. it's a lot of fun. And boy, I'd love to sit around that table and listen to this debate. Thank you both.
And coming up -- according to many reports, nanny state supporter, former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg may jump into the 2016 White House race as an independent. Now, we'll explain which candidate he would hurt the most.
And later tonight -- we're just seven days from the Iowa caucuses. Senator Rand Paul is here to explain why he should be the GOP nominee. That and more on this busy news night.
HANNITY: And welcome back to "Hannity." Now, according to reports, billionaire and former mayor of New York City Michael Bloomberg is eying an independent run for the White House. Now, in light of this news, we put together a list of some of Bloomberg's pretty liberal policies. You may remember these.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MICHAEL BLOOMBERG, FORMER NYC MAYOR: So background checks do work. I think the FBI last year turned down something like 80,000 requests to buy a gun.
This is nothing to do with banning your ability to buy as much -- as many sugary drinks as you want, simply the size of the cup that can be used. It cannot be greater than 16 ounces under this regulation.
Government should bestow upon her marriage license all the rights and privilege that come with any other marriage license, and I could not agree more. The biggest obstacle to that equality is the Defense of Marriage Act.
Temporary workers that come here for three or four months -- if we can't get them, the farmer can't pick the crops and doesn't grow the crops.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: Here with reaction, chairman of the American Conservative Union, our friend, Matt Schlapp, from The Washington Times, Fox News contributor Monica Crowley, author of the book "The Genius of America: How the Constitution Saved Our Country and Why it Can Save us Again," the senior VP of news and editorial director at NPR -- now, I read your book a number of years ago -- Michael Oreskes with us. I read this book. The chapter on Reagan was brilliant.
MICHAEL ORESKES, "GENIUS OF AMERICA" AUTHOR: Thank you. Thank you.
HANNITY: So I mean...
HANNITY: How did you get to NPR?
ORESKES: It's a great institution, serious news.
HANNITY: I know, but we just don't want government funding. That's the only thing (INAUDIBLE)
All right, let's talk about Bloomberg's...
ORESKES: By the way, if you contribute more to us, we can reduce the government funding.
MATT SCHLAPP, AMERICAN CONSERVATIVE UNION: We've heard that before.
HANNITY: You going to run the "Hannity" radio show on NPR?
ORESKES: (INAUDIBLE) the show.
HANNITY: All right, so liberal on guns, guy that wants to tell us what we can drink and how much we can buy in terms of Coca-Cola or whatever we want to buy. You have to ask for salt in a New York restaurant, gay marriage. Who does he hurt here if he gets in?
SCHLAPP: Here's what this is about. Mike Bloomberg sees an opening up the middle if the Democrats nominate Sanders and the Republicans nominate Trump.
But the real issue here is why is it possible there'll be such an opening? It's not about Mike Bloomberg. It's about how angry everyone is. That's what's driving this whole phenomenon. That's what's driving the idea that a third party candidacy is even possible, which, by the way, we know all third party candidacies have rarely succeed in this country.
HANNITY: I can't see him drawing many Republican voters with his liberal positions. He was a lifelong Democrat. The only reason he switched was because he wanted to have an easy nomination when he was running for mayor.
MONICA CROWLEY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Yes, Michael Bloomberg works very well in New York City, but not very well in other places around America.
I think there are two things happening here. One, I think he's a little bit envious that he sees his fellow New York billionaire, Donald Trump, getting...
HANNITY: ... billionaire envy here?
CROWLEY: I think there's a little billionaire envy. But I also think that he's -- Michael Bloomberg is a very smart man. He's not stupid. He sees what's happening on the Democratic side. Mrs. Clinton's numbers are very soft and getting softer. She could, in fact, lose Iowa and New Hampshire. He also sees that the FBI is closing in on Mrs. Clinton...
HANNITY: I'm going to get to that in a second.
CROWLEY: ... and if she's not the nominee, I think he sees that he could have a real opening here in a very soft Democratic primary, regardless of who the Democratic nominee is.
HANNITY: A source close to the Bloomberg group now said, Well, if Hillary gets indicted, he's going to leave open the option of jumping in. So he's probably thinking down the road, I think, as Monica suggested.
SCHLAPP: That's right. Look, we have all this talk about maybe an open convention for the Republicans in Cleveland. We might be talking about -- as Monica has written about, we might be talking about the wrong convention. The Democratic convention could be the one that's awfully exciting.
HANNITY: Yes. All right, let me go to Hillary. So we have the inspector general last week of the intelligence community, and he's talking about SAPs, higher classification than top secret. As The Hill said today, That is a game changer.
Here's Hillary not blaming the inspector general appointed by Obama, confirmed by a Democratic majority in the Senate. Nope. Vast right-wing conspiracy. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON, D-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I'm not concerned because I know what the facts are. I never sent or received any material marked classified.
I cannot control what the Republicans leak and what they are contending.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: Let me put up on the screen 15 specific federal laws that Rudy Giuliani, former prosecutor before he became mayor, has identified and we'll run that on the side of the screen as you analyze this.
But SAP, higher classification than top secret -- does this now raise this to the level, as The Hill says, it's a game changer? Could she possibly get the FBI recommending indictment and maybe an indictment?
ORESKES: The underlying problem and why this is so confusing is just that we have no idea. There's vast amounts of classified material, a lot of it overclassified, some of it changed classifications in between.
Whether she knowingly did something that would make her liable or whether someone else in the operation did something is what the investigation presumably is all about.
You and I have both been journalists a long time and we've both been through a lot of scandals. Most, of the time, the real issue a the scandal is what the voters decide the scandal says about the character of the candidate.
HANNITY: Let me ask you, though, as a matter of law, because she signed this non-disclosure agreement. She signed when she became secretary of state. She sent out a memo to everybody else in the State Department, Don't use a private server.
SCHLAPP: That's right.
HANNITY: And here we're talking about, you know, Special Access Programs that are above top secret. Every single incident -- if it's dozens of e- mails, that seems that every one of those could be a potential felony charge for her.
ORESKES: Potential, if she knew it.
HANNITY: But actually the law suggests you don't need to know. At that point it would be mishandling of classified information.
SCHLAPP: Look, you don't know immediately. That's the whole point of being secretary of state. You get all this intelligence from the ground, and then they figure out what's real and what's not real. The fact is that's why you don't have a secretary of state that gets to make the discretion of what e-mails she keeps and what e-mail deletes. Remember, she's done two things wrong here. She's mishandled the information she got on the e-mail and she deleted 30,000 e-mails.
HANNITY: All through the classifications through a surrogate.
CROWLEY: Look, if you're a secretary of state you should be under the assumption that every bit of material comes to you is classified. That's number one.
If you think about this, Sean, over the last week we've gotten three major leaks on this case. The potential for the Pentagon to demote General David Petraeus, which they're likely not going to do. That had nothing to do with --
HANNITY: They're out for blood there.
CROWLEY: That's a warning shot against Hillary that if we want to take you out, we can.
The second link we got would we be the intel community's inspector general saying he needed a higher security clearance even to look at the documents in question. And then --
HANNITY: Members of Congress on intelligence committees don't have clearance to see these.
CROWLEY: Right. They had to get higher clearances this read in on the documents. And what we got yesterday, what was reported, was that her aides were asked to actually physically cut and paste some of these top secret documents into other documents so that she could get them and resend them. Somebody is leaking this to keep the story fresh, and it's not the Republicans.
HANNITY: Here's what I want to know. Does this rise to a level beyond Petraeus? And if Loretta Lynch decides not to follow the FBI's conclusions if they in fact conclude that crimes were committed, how big a scandal does that become?
ORESKES: Well, it's a significant scandal at a legal point, but more important, the real issue here and whether this is the question of the weak poll numbers, is whether public reaction is beginning to feel this is a problem in the way she handles this.
HANNITY: Do you sense it's rising to that level? I do.
ORESKES: Hard to tell. I think polling is all off all over the place. I have no idea.
HANNITY: We'll know in a week, right?
ORESKES: It's worth waiting for the vote.
HANNITY: We can wait a week.
SCHLAPP: I guarantee you the polling isn't that off. Hillary Clinton is in trouble.
HANNITY: She'll lose New Hampshire. Iowa, maybe she'll lose.
SCHLAPP: That's right. When you lose the first two, boy, you are in trouble.
HANNITY: She is in trouble.
CROWLEY: There's two tracks here. There's the legal track, which we've been talking about with the FBI. But then if it moves to a recommendation to the DOJ and Loretta Lynch, then it becomes a largely political matter.
HANNITY: That's right.
CROWLEY: And that's the president's call. And I think if she were dominating both the Democratic and the Republican field by 20 points they would leave her alone, but she is incredibly vulnerable and they might look at going for the jugular.
HANNITY: Wow. All right, guys, good to see you all.
When we come back, the Iowa caucuses one week from tonight. We'll check in with Senator Rand Paul. He'll be here next to make his closing arguments on why he should be the GOP nominee.
Also, later tonight --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TED CRUZ, R-TEXAS, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We will not weaken. We will not degrade. We will utterly and completely destroy ISIS.
SEN. MARCO RUBIO, R-FLA., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The best intelligence agencies in the world are going to tell us where the terrorists are. The best military in the world is going to destroy them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: The 2016 Republican candidates, they have been slamming Obama's disastrous ISIS strategy. When we come back, former secretary of defense Don Rumsfeld here in studio with reaction as we continue.
HANNITY: Welcome back to "Hannity." Now, the Iowa caucuses are only seven days away. The 2016 presidential candidates are making their final pitches to voters. Here now to lay out his closing arguments and strategy to win GOP nomination, 2016 presidential Republican candidate, the Kentucky senator, Rand Paul. How are you?
SEN. RAND PAUL, R-KY., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Very good. Thanks for having me, Sean.
HANNITY: I was talking about this earlier. When you look back historically, 2004, they were 15 points off in the polls. In 2008 they were off, 2012 they were off. This is the case that you've been making that we're relying too much on polls and in your home state in the race for governor they were off by a whole lot.
PAUL: I think we're going to be surprised that the race is going to a lot closer and that the race will be still quite open even after the Iowa primary and after New Hampshire. We think ours are underestimated, our numbers are underestimated because a lot of our support comes from young people. You know, I've been the lead spokesman saying the government shouldn't collect all of our phone records. I don't want the government collecting my phone records. I don't want them collecting my credit card statements. And a lot of young people agree with us. We're really strong on the college campuses. In fact we'll make our closing argument as we travel around on college campuses.
HANNITY: And there's a history of Pauls outperforming the polls. Your dad outperformed by a big margin.
PAUL: Yes. And actually the current polls are under-showing his previous support as well, so we think there's some kind of phenomenon is going on that we're not finding the liberty voters. We think we're going to definitely outperform what the polls are showing.
HANNITY: When you say liberty voters, that's sort of like your delineation as you're the more conservative libertarian in the race. You don't reject that label, right?
PAUL: No, no, no, because I think there's several areas where I represent something that is unique and distinctive. One, on government collecting your records, two, on government putting you in jail for minor things like marijuana, and, three, on whether or not the intervention in the Middle East helped us or made things less safe.
HANNITY: Look, I agree with you on one and two. I disagree a little bit on three. But you forgot a couple other things. You're also for the penny plan. You want to balance budgets. You too want to secure the borders. The border is a mess.
But on the issue -- look, if we're going to fight a war again in this country, if we're not going to win the war, I don't want to send anybody anymore. If wars are not going to politicized like Vietnam and Iraq, I don't want any more war.
PAUL: This is the point I've been making. The constitution says that Congress declares war. Congress is supposed to vote on war. We have been involved in the Middle East for a year and a half and everybody says we voted on it on 9/11, 2001.
HANNITY: Bush got the authorization for the use of force.
PAUL: Yes, but for a different war. This is new war and a new generation and we need to vote. Congress absolutely needs to vote.
But I am a Reagan conservative in the sense that I do believe when you go to war you don't go halfway. So even the people in our party wanting to put troops on the ground, the McCains and the Grahams, they want 10,000 troops on the ground. That's a ridiculously small amount if you're going to war. The thing is that when we had the surge, when we took over the same areas, we had 130,000 and we added 50,000. So what I'm saying is either you make the commitment that you're going to put a couple hundred thousand people on the ground or you say, you know what, we're going to amplify those that live here, who live there, and the people there are going to have to fight that battle.
HANNITY: If this is year of the insurgent inasmuch as all the polls show that it is, didn't the Republicans, aren't the responsible for creating that? Because I see them wringing their hands. They're trying to figure it out. They don't understand it. I'm not like, it's not that complicated to figure out. You made promises. You broke them. You didn't fight. You contributed $4.1 trillion to the debt, John Boehner.
PAUL: The biggest complaint I get from grassroots Republicans across the country is, look we gave you Congress, we gave you the House, we gave you the Senate, but you are not using the power of the purse. That's why I've stood up and said I'm not voting to raise the debt ceiling unless we reform the government.
But here's the thing that's not known by most people. The loudest voices in Washington for increasing spending are those wanting to increase the military budget, and they make a deal with the left and increase the welfare budget, and you get both.
HANNITY: How are you doing with Mitch McConnell because you didn't support this latest budget deal?
PAUL: You know, I've been opposed to most of the things that have come out of Washington from leadership. I haven't been shy about it.
HANNITY: In fairness, I mean, he's from your home state. You supported him. How big a part of the problem is he?
PAUL: I have not been shy about standing up to leadership on any issue and we'll continue to do. I stood for 10 hours on the NSA. That was against Republican leadership. I stood for 13 hours saying that you shouldn't drone Americans against Republican leadership. I also stood against the debt ceiling raise, the unlimited amount of debt ceiling raise against leadership. So I'm not afraid to do it. I just do it a little bit differently. I don't make it personal. I don't make it about the individuals. I am trying to make it about what's right and wrong, what's for the constitution and what's not.
HANNITY: If you did it, it might get you more press.
PAUL: I do fine.
HANNITY: Senator, good to see you.
PAUL: Thank you so much.
HANNITY: We'll see you on the trail in Iowa, too.
PAUL: All right, thank you.
HANNITY: I appreciate it.
And coming up next on this busy news night tonight on "Hannity" --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUZ: We will not weaken. We will not degrade. We will utterly and completely destroy ISIS.
RUBIO: The best intelligence agencies in the world are going to tell us where the terrorists are. The best military in the world is going to destroy them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: Well, 2016 Republican candidates have been slamming Obama's failed ISIS strategy on the campaign trail. Former secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld is up next with reaction, and a lot more tonight on "Hannity."
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CRUZ: We will not weaken. We will not degrade. We will utterly and completely destroy ISIS.
RUBIO: The best intelligence agencies in the world are going to tell us where the terrorists are. The best military in the world is going to destroy them. And if we capture any of them alive, they're not getting a lawyer or a court hearing. They're getting a one-way ticket to Guantanamo, and we're going to find out everything they know.
GOV. JOHN KASICH, R-OHIO, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You've got to be in the air and on the ground. These people that say we can just bomb and make this, you know, you can't win wars with just the air. You wish you could, but you can't. So you've got to both.
DONALD TRUMP, R- PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We're going to be talking about ISIS because we have to blow them off the face of the earth. No, we have to.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HANNITY: Joining us now to talk about the candidate with the best ideas to defeat ISIS, former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld. By the way, Donald Rumsfeld, now 83 years old, has the top 30 app in the country. It's called Churchill Solitaire. You showed me. This thing is amazing.
DONALD RUMSFELD, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: It is.
HANNITY: Want to hear my Churchill? Toil --
HANNITY: I used to listen to his speeches because somebody gave me a DVD recalibrated or whatever. How did you get into this?
RUMSFELD: He taught, during World War II when Belgium was occupied by the Nazis, the government went to London in exile. Among the people serving in that government was a young diplomat who for whatever became kind of a protege of Churchill's. So when I arrived as a U.S. ambassador to NATO in 1973, this Belgian diplomat taught me the game that Churchill had taught him. It would have been lost to the ages, I think, unless we figured some way --
HANNITY: Top 30 app in the country. That's huge.
RUMSFELD: Well, it's better to be lucky than smart, isn't it?
HANNITY: You're giving all the money to charity?
RUMSFELD: Indeed. We are. And we're working with the Churchill people to make sure we handle the Churchill name in a proper way. And they obviously are taking any profits they get.
HANNITY: "We'll fight in the hills. We'll fight in the beaches." Amazing historical figure. You think of the bombing of Britain, out there every day among the people.
Let me ask you this. I went with you to Iraq.
HANNITY: I went on the same plane as you. I came back with you. When you hear the city, Mosul, Fallujah, Ramadi, Tikrit in the hands of ISIS, all of the financial resources that they get from oil. I'm angry that this president didn't finish the job. Nobody seems to talk about that.
RUMSFELD: You're quite right. A great deal of effort and heart break has gone into this. And by pulling out precipitously and not providing the kind of support for the Iraqi people and the Iraqi government that he could have, a lot of damage has been done.
HANNITY: I mean, if you're the parent who lost your son and they won the city, and you see the city is now in the hands of ISIS, I would be so angry. I would be apoplectic over that.
RUMSFELD: There are basic problems. People are saying, should we do this or should we do that? But the basic problem is that this administration has not fashioned a logical winning strategy. And, you know, if you don't know where you're going any road will get you there. And that is unfortunate because it creates a vacuum, and the vacuum gets filled by people who don't have our interest or our values.
HANNITY: I am so angry over this. Go back to Vietnam. We could have won Vietnam. But it became politicized. Iraq became politicized. And as a result, we don't finish the job. Don't we need to find victory now for any future military engagement in the U.S.? Don't we need to define that?
RUMSFELD: Well, you do. But we have to understand that this is a long problem. This problem we're dealing with radical Islamists begins first with defining what the problem is.
HANNITY: Radical Islam.
RUMSFELD: Exactly. But our government won't say that. They won't think that. They won't organize around that principle. And that is what the problem is. The problem is these people, normal deterrents are not working. In other words, we're not going to be attacked by big armies, navies or air forces by these people because they don't have them. They've going to attack asymmetrically, and they're doing it.
HANNITY: Is there a next-generation warfare where we won't have to send soldiers door-to-door like we did in Iraq. Do you foresee that time?
RUMSFELD: I think that Eisenhower once said the plan is nothing. Planning is everything. And the point being that any plan is gone by first contact with the enemy because the enemy has a brain. The enemy is going to do that which they believe will advantage them. And what we're dealing with today is asymmetrical attacks to use a fancy word that you can't defend against with armies, navies, and air forces, and they know that.
HANNITY: All right, Mr. Secretary, good to see you.
RUMSFELD: Thank you. Good to see you, Sean.
HANNITY: And when we come back, we have a very important "Question of the Day." That's straight ahead.
HANNITY: And time for our "Question of the Day." So Michael Bloomberg, the liberal former New York City mayor runs, who is it going to hurt the most? He's liberal on guns. He's liberal on abortion. He's liberal on pretty much everything. By the way, he wants to tell you how much coke you can buy and whether you can have salt on your table at a restaurant. Do we really need a nanny president? Go to Facebook.com/SeanHannity, @SeanHannity on Twitter, let us know what you think.
Quick programming note. Big week on "Hannity" starting tomorrow. We will be in Iowa ahead of the caucuses and we're going to be hitting the campaign trail with many of the top candidates. It all starts tomorrow night, 10:00 eastern.
That's all the time we have left this evening. As always, thank you for being with us. We'll see you from Iowa tomorrow night.
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