This is a rush transcript from "Special Report," January 8, 2016. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
BRET BAIER, ANCHOR: This is where they're all trying to get to in the end. The newest FOX News polls, let's start in Iowa. You have Ted Cruz increasing his lead, and there you see December to now, but the point spread over Trump now four points.
Then let's go to New Hampshire. It's a different story. Trump up big over Rubio in second. In New Hampshire, however, it's interesting, if you ask the likely primary voters there, they're certain about their pick, 56 percent, may change their mind, 43 percent. That's changing, but still a lot can move in the next month or so, which brings us to a favorite place we like to go on Fridays, "Candidate Casino." It's $100 in chips. Who will be the nominee? Republican side, Jonah, chips?
JONAH GOLDBERG, NATIONAL REVIEW: Because I can't be emotional about money, I have Cruz at $40, Trump at $30, Rubio at $20, and Christie at $10.
AMY WALTER, COOK POLITICAL REPORT: All right, I have the same candidates just in a different order. Still Cruz up, but I have Rubio in second with $25, Trump at $15, Christie at $5, and I'm saving $20 because I'm going to node a lot of martinis before this is all over to be able to drink.
BAIER: Charles did not get the camel jacket note, but he does have his chips.
CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: With my winnings, I'm going to buy one.
KRAUTHAMMER: Just remember when you go to the Candidate Casino, you go there not to make friends but to make money. So this is not emotions. It's Trump at $35, as is Cruz. They're both I think equally likely at this point. I dropped Rubio to $15, probably should be $20 but I had to leave $5 for the wine because I'm going to need a lot of that, although perhaps I should go to harder liquor.
WALTER: Get a Jell-O shot maybe for that.
KRAUTHAMMER: I want to go back to the Iowa polls. The FOX News seven and eight, the GOP nominee preference, very conservative caucus-goers, Cruz is up big, 40 percent to 22 percent over Trump. And then among white -- among Iowa evangelical caucus-goers, Cruz again has a huge lead. Is Cruz, and there you see the numbers, consolidating that support in Iowa? Is that what we're seeing?
WALTER: And that the evangelical vote in Iowa is about 60 percent. Not so much the case in New Hampshire where it's one of the least evangelical in terms of the population. So that's why he does very well there, not as well in New Hampshire. For Trump, his support is much more diffused. He doesn't need to win very conservative voters in order to pick up states like New Hampshire, but where does he go if he loses Iowa, doesn't do as well as he thought in New Hampshire?
GOLDBERG: I think that's right. I think Cruz has been incredibly impressive in his discipline and his ground game, and for all the talk about being an insurgent, he really is really working hard on the ground.
I think part of Trump's appeal, and I mean this in all seriousness, is very much what Richard Nixon's appeal was. Richard Nixon was not a very conservative guy. He hated the "National Review" crowd. But he was a Charlie lunch bucket, politics of resentment kind of guy who appealed to a broad group of essentially nationalist type voters who didn't like the establishment. And Trump's own motto is the silent majority. It's not ironic.
KRAUTHAMMER: The sleeper element here is a guy who is not going to win either in Iowa or the national race, which is Carson. The question is, is he going to get the vote he now seeks to have or, realizing he's not going to win, will they go away, because if they do, they'll go to Cruz. I think that will be the key to the margin that Cruz has.
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