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Kelly File

Another mass shooting in a gun-free zone; Krauthammer slams White House on Syria

This is a rush transcript from "The Kelly File," October 1, 2015. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MEGYN KELLY, HOST: Breaking tonight, here we go again. Another mass shooting in a gun-free zone. And another presidential statement attacking gun rights supporters.

At this hour, we are awaiting a news conference from authorities following a mass shooting at a college campus in Oregon. As we anticipate this briefing, we are getting a lot of new information about the killer and what cops have found at the scene.

Welcome to "The Kelly File," everyone. I'm Megyn Kelly.

A live look now at Roseburg, Oregon, where just about seven hours ago a quite community was shaken to its core after a mad man showed at Umpqua Community College with murder on his mind.

Here's what we know as of this hour. Authorities are actively investigating possible motives. The 20-year-old man entered the building around 10:30 a.m. local time. At least one witness says he came into her classroom, told people to get on the ground and then ask them to stand up again. He then asked them to state their religion, she said, and then he opened fire.

One horrified witness describes what happened next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

You see, I was outside center hall. It's in my jeep. Talking to an actual gun recruiter and we heard a gunshot. So we looked up and through a quick inspection, I saw the gunman with a small-caliber handgun. Then we went in towards Snyder Hall. I heard three or four shots.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: From what we understand, he went into multiple classrooms, at least two, we're told. And when it was all over, at least ten people were dead, seven more injured. They just updated those numbers moments ago.

And we are just getting reports that four guns were found at the scene, three pistols and a long rifle. We are also hearing that police found a cell phone that may have helped them identify the suspect and his car.  But, as of right now, they are still, 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time, not publicly sharing that information.

Our own Dan Springer has just arrived in Roseburg, Oregon, with the very latest.

Dan?

DAN SPRINGER, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Megyn, as you can imagine, this is a major investigation, especially for a small community. This is a county of only about 107,000 people. We understand that there are well over 100 officers, local, state and federal officials who are on the scene going through Umpqua Community College, which is about a mile and a half down this road.

We are being kept that far away. The tape is up. We're being kept that far away as they process this incredibly large scene, the shooting scene at the campus. And also, interview all the witnesses that heard or saw anything.

The number of dead and wounded seems to be in flux. You mentioned that there are ten people dead. We know that Douglas County Sheriff John Hanlin held a short news conference an hour ago and said that there were ten dead and seven wounded, injured, taken to local hospitals.

Well, since then, the closest hospital has reported that one of the critically injured taken there had died. The Oregonians reporting that the shooter is being counted among those 10 or now 11 dead. And to make matters more confusing, the state's attorney general earlier today confirmed 13 had died.

Well, shots were fired and first reported at 10:38 this morning. A lone gunman walked into a classroom and reportedly ordered everyone in that classroom to lie face down on the ground. Then according to various reports, he then pulled students to stand up and announce their religion.  He, then, open fire. Other witnesses described the chaos.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: When I looked out the window and there were couple girls running, like sprinting away from the building. And then I heard screaming after that first gunshot. And then I looked out and I saw the people running, and I said to the teacher "We need to get out of here right now." And then heard the second and third gunshots.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SPRINGER: We believe almost all of the victims were in that first classroom. Now, two or three officers arrived quickly. The closest state patrol office is just about a mile away. They got into a shootout with the gunman. He died at the scene.

He is described by the Oregon governor as a 20-year-old man although there were new reports that he is 26. Police are saying nothing about him or a possible motive or whether he was even a student here. It's been reported that he had four guns. At least some were described as long guns.

Oregon is an open-carry state, but the college president says there is a gun-free policy in place. This was just the fourth day of classes at this college. And just before the classes started on Monday, the staff here went through a gunman, a scenario.

And, again, as I mentioned, a gun-free zone where a gunman was able to get four weapons in the campus here.

And, Megyn, also, I want to tell you that it's being described that there was only one security officer on the campus this morning and he was unarmed.

Megyn?

KELLY: Dan, thank you.

Joining us now by Kendra Gordon. She was in the classroom next door to where the shots were fired.

Kendra, thank you for being here. So tell us what you first heard that indicated you there was trouble.

KENDRA GORDON, UMPQUA STUDENT, WAS IN ROOM NEXT TO SHOOTER (via telephone): Well, I first heard one single gunshot. And my class didn't understand it. We thought it was the science class. And then we heard another one go off. And one of the students in my class ended up leaving and checking, and then she was shot and came back and told us that there was a gun. And that's when we knew it was serious.

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: So hold on, so hold on, so a female student got up and decided to go toward what we now know was the danger and she came back shot?

GORDON: Yes.

KELLY: Oh my God. I mean, describe what happened when she walk back into the room and you saw her injured?

GORDON: She stumbled back. She was shot in the arm and then in the stomach. She stumbled back and all she was able to spit out was he has a gun. And then she stopped talking completely. She didn't say anything for 20 minutes.

KELLY: Did she collapse? Or what happened to her?

GORDON: Yes, she collapsed. She collapsed in class and we were trying to keep her alive while we're -- keeping ourselves safe.

KELLY: What did the rest of the class do? So she's now collapsed in your class and she's bleeding. You said she was -- how many times was she shot and where?

GORDON: She was shot twice. Once in the arm and then once in the stomach.

KELLY: And so now your class is trying to attend to her and I presume you ran up and tried to close the door. Tell me.

GORDON: Yes, the door -- they shut the door, shut all the lights off. And we did, I mean, what we were taught as when we were younger to hide under the desk. But I mean, what's that going to do for you?

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: Was there -- did you hear more gun shots after she returned to your classroom.

GORDON: Yes, they just went off. It was an automatic. It had to have been because he -- eight rounds went off in five seconds. I mean, it was - - I've never heard that many gunshots in my entire life.

KELLY: Do you believe that was the moment that he was killing these 10 people next door?

GORDON: I didn't want to. I didn't want to believe that that could happen, but yes. I mean, it doesn't -- yes, it happens, easy, 50 rounds went off.

KELLY: What were you doing while you were sitting there under the desk?

GORDON: I was huddled up with some of my other classmates. We were praying that we would be able to see our family at the end of the day. And we are texting our family, telling them what was going on, telling them we love them, getting everything out because we didn't know if that was going to be the last conversation with them.

KELLY: When you walked out of that classroom and the police finally arrived, what was the scene?

GORDON: There's bodies everywhere. Injured bodies. People laying on the ground, people holding themselves together. Blood. It was something you don't think you would see. It's not something that you expect to see. And it was really, it was traumatic to say the least. Everyone was crying, wondering who was in that class.

KELLY: At that point, had they killed the gunman?

GORDON: While I was still in class, we heard people shouting saying that the gunman has been apprehended. We didn't know if he was killed or if they were able to get a hold of him and arrest him. But there was no police like shuffling around so we assume that he had been shot.

KELLY: I'm sure your family is so grateful that you are still here to tell the story tonight, Kendra. And our condolences to you in a loss of your classmates and to the families of those who are grieving tonight.

Thank you very much for being with us.

GORDON: Thank you.

KELLY: So America, once again, stunned, sickened by another seemingly senseless mass shooting, claiming innocent lives. These kids were going to school, trying to get an education and improve their lives.

While we await more information on the shooter, it's very strangely who it released his identity these many hours after. We're trying to find out why. Nor his motive, we don't know. We're trying to figure out exactly how it all unfolded. But the question now is, are we becoming desensitized to this. Is this just part of a landscape now?

That is what President Obama said earlier tonight. Is this, for us, a new normal?

Charles Krauthammer is a "Fox News" contributor and author of "Things That Matter," now out in paperback.

Charles, the president says this has become routine. He comes out and says we have become numb to these repeated, mass shootings. Does he have a point?

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, look, I don't think we're anymore numb than we are when we know of a 10, 20, 30,000 traffic deaths a year. We know that's going to happen. It's part of our highly mobile industrial society, and we accept it.

Look, here, we don't accept it and we know that this -- these are acts of evil or of madness, which always make us uncomfortable. But we are not numb in the sense that we don't care anymore or we don't mourn, or we don't feel for the pain of those who have suffered. The question is do we have a solution to it.

And for the president to come out and speak immediately about this, before we know who did it, before we know what kind of weapon was used, before we know how the weapon was obtained and to make a case for gun control, I don't doubt his sincerity, his passion, I don't think this is political in the sense that he thinks it's going to gain in the constituency.

But I do question his judgment. Obama himself said we treat terrorism, which also results in mass killings in a very different way. And it's not an issue of gun control. Well, how does he know? No one knows whether or not this was the act of a madman or of a terrorist. We should have at least waited.

KELLY: Meanwhile, let me ask you this, as a recovering psychiatrist. What about the mental health? We were promise after (INAUDIBLE), he promised he was going to look into the mental health. We were going to take a look at that in this country. He didn't manage to tighten the gun laws, whatever happened to looking at mental health in the country?

KRAUTHAMMER: Look, I've been on this case for 30 years because we have become far more, I guess the word is libertarian in the way that we treat the mentally ill.

One of the reasons, for example, that we have people sleeping in grates, in our streets and dying with their rights on is because when I was in practice many years ago, it was much easier to commit someone who was clearly psychotic, had no one to help him or her and to put them into treatment, at least they would get some help. It's much harder to do anything like that now.

KELLY: The question I have for you is, is it going to stop? Or is it just the America in which we live, where we're disconnected and we're on the machines all day and we have less empathy, according to the studies, where our fellowmen.

Is that just the reality of America in 2015? We're going to see more shootings?

KRAUTHAMMER: It's a reality, but it isn't because we are desensitized, it isn't because we are involved in our iPhones. It's not because of any change in the psyche of the country. It's because we are a country of 300 million people. And we believe in individual liberty to an extent that almost no one does.

So when you get a Jared Loughner, who is clearly psychotic -- he was the shooter in Tucson. The family knew it. They were begging for the authorities to do something. But under our laws, which allows maximum freedom, the mother couldn't do a damn thing until he killed.

And that's a problem -- it's an inherent problem in our society to balance security and liberty. And we have tilted towards liberty, which is completely understandable. And, as a result of that, and the same with possession of guns, as a result of that, we who live in the far more liberal in the sense of believing in liberty society, that any other in the west, we have these incidents that are a result of that. We have to make a choice. And we try to choose the fine line, to train our heart to do, however we choose, we are going to lose something.

KELLY: Charles, thank you.

KRAUTHAMMER: My pleasure.

KELLY: Well, as Charles mentioned, President Obama stepped to the mic a couple of hours ago, admitted we didn't know much about this shooting and then launched into a fiery call for gun control.

Dana Loesch is here next with a fact check of some of the president's claims.

Plus, Russia ignores White House requests and is now ramping up military operations in the Middle East at this moment.

Charles Krauthammer comes back for that story with what it means for U.S. allies around the world.

And then, we are tonight entering a critical stretch for the G.O.P. field with some of these folks facing a tough couple of weeks ahead. Frank Luntz is here with a new focus group research on who has a future here and who may not.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. CHRIS CHRISTIE, R-N.J., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We cut taxes, made government smaller. You need to be willing to stand up to Congress and tell them what you won't do so then you can drag them to doing what the American people want them to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: We are not the only country on earth that has people with mental illnesses, or want to do harm to other people. We are the only advanced country on earth that sees these kinds of mass shootings every few months.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: That was President Obama in the White House briefing room, just hours after a gunman opened fire at an Oregon Community College. The president conceding that we do not yet know the gunman's motives or how he got his hands on those weapons, but Mr. Obama insisting that this is yet another tragic reason for new gun control laws.

Dana Loesch is the host of "Dana" on TheBlaze TV and the author of "Hands Off My Gun."

We have no idea how he got those guns. None. No idea. He could have, he could have stolen them from a law enforcement officer, for all we know, who had the guns legally or somebody else who had them legally. And, yet, the president already out there saying this is about tightening the restrictions, Dana.

DANA LOESCH, HOST, "DANA" ON THEBLAZE TV: Yes, it's mystifying to me, Megyn, that he can be making his proclamations when we absolutely, we know hardly anything. We know about the fatalities. We know about the injured.  But we know nothing about this individual. We don't know the motivation, aside from according to a number of witnesses, he had said -- well, stated, "What is your religion," before carrying out this tragedy.

And our thoughts and prayers, by the way. You know, I pray for the people of Roseburg and of UCC. And it was incredibly disappointing to see the president at a time when he should have been holding the country together make such statements when there's no basis for this.

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: Let's talk about -- let's get specific, because one of the claims he made was about how, when you have more gun control laws, you have fewer shootings.

Let's listen to what the president said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: We know that states with the most gun laws tend to have the fewest gun deaths. So the notion that gun laws don't work were just, will make it harder for law-abiding citizens and criminals who still get their guns, it's not born out by the evidence.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Now you're a Second Amendment supporter.

LOESCH: Right.

KELLY: And you've written -- but you've literally written a book on this.  Is that true?

LOESCH: He comes from Chicago so I find that a little hard to believe that he's stating that. I mean, Illinois had some of the strictest gun control laws in the United States.

I mean, you can't even basically drive through Illinois without having your ammunition and your firearms stored in a certain way. And we were just talking. I know it was all over the news just how many shootings there were in Chicago last weekend and the weekend before that.

I mean, all of these incidents, just like the one in Roseburg, is a tragedy. But there are a lot of Roseburg's that happened every single weekend in Chicago. And they have quite a few gun laws, as do Washington, D.C., New York, New Jersey, the list goes on.

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: We're not obeying the gun laws.

(CROSSTALK)

LOESCH: Exactly.

KELLY: Here's the other question. He said that other countries have eliminated mass shootings. All eliminated, thanks to tighter gun control law. Listen here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: We know that other countries in response to one mass shooting have been able to craft laws that almost eliminate mass shootings. Friends of ours, allies of ours, Great Britain, Australia, countries like ours. So we know there are ways to prevent it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: What say you?

LOESCH: Not true. Australia, they had a confiscation program. They didn't just have gun control, Megyn, they confiscated firearms. And, I should note that while everyone is celebrating Australia's low crime rate, Australia's gun possession ownership is back to what it was before its pre- confiscation levels.

And as far as the U.K., as far as Great Britain, there are still shootings that take place and beheadings. In fact, there was one just a couple -- a week ago, there are beheadings that take place. We could also look at the violent crime rate and how gun homicides are actually classified over in Britain.

And to discuss the gun homicide rate, Brazil, Mexico, other countries like Honduras, they have different laws, stronger laws than ours, and they see a higher homicide rate. Honduras has fewer guns. Eight per 100 people and yet they have the highest murder rate in the world. Sorry?

(CROSSTALK)

KELLY: Just bottom line it for us.

LOESCH: Right.

KELLY: What is the bottom line? Because people look at this and they say we've got to get rid of the guns. The guns are the problem.

LOESCH: Gun-free zones are criminal protection areas. And that's what we usually see. The evidence and the statistics, it's all right there. I mean, there's -- you can't refute numbers. You cannot refute statistics.

Look at the cities here in the United States. And I want to make a point, too, where the president and other people have been talking about. Well, we've 45 mass shootings this year alone. That's not true. In fact, the Web site, the shooting tracker Web site that's making that claim, Megyn, I went this afternoon and I was going through all of those different incidents that I was describing as mass shootings, most of them, the majority of them, gang violence.

KELLY: Dana, thank you for being here.

LOESCH: Thank you, Megyn.

KELLY: Well, we also have breaking news tonight on Hurricane Joaquin. Now a cat 4 storm. We'll tell you where it's heading.

Plus, not only is Russia ignoring the White House and expanding its military operations now across the Middle East. Apparently, they were un- persuaded by our criticism that they were being unprofessional.

But, now, Iran is joining forces with the former soviet military. Charles Krauthammer is back on what this means for America.

And, also, the Israeli ambassador weighs in with a warning for the world.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: 70 years after the murder of 6 million Jews, Iran's rulers promise to destroy my country, murder my people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: I want to bring you some breaking news now. We believe that this is the home of the suspected gunman, again, who has been shot and dead in Oregon. And now, we are getting several reports of the shooter's identity.

Consistent with our "Kelly File" policy, we will not be revealing his name.  It has been released by several news sources which you can find online.  But the reports are that this is a 26-year-old man which contradicts what was reported earlier that he was 20, relevant potentially because the legal age to purchase a gun at least in Oregon is 21.

So if he is 26, obviously, he would be over the age. We have no idea whether he purchase the guns that were use. In any event, we're keeping our eyes on that situation and those surrounding his house until we hear anything.

Meantime, breaking tonight. Russia is again expanding its military operations across the Middle East despite our stern lecture. As it launches a new round of air strikes in Syria. Just like yesterday, while the Kremlin says it is targeting ISIS installations, we're learning that in fact, it's other groups, including some U.S.-backed rebels, the ones were supporting and supposed to be defending that are bearing the brunt of this assault.

At the same time, we're getting new reports that Iran is now sending thousands of ground troops into the region and that Moscow, simultaneously, has drafted 150,000 more troops in its own country.

Back in Washington, this was the rhetoric we were hearing from some of our leaders.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ASH CARTER, SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: I take the Russians at their word.

JOHN KERRY, SECRETARY OF STATE: We agreed on the imperative of as soon as possible. Perhaps even as soon as tomorrow, but as soon as possible, having a military to military de-confliction discussion.

JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Obviously, we would prefer Russia to make a constructive contribution to our ongoing anti-ISIL effort.

PETER COOK, PENTAGON PRESS SECRETARY: We have encouraged them once again to focus their attention on ISIL. There could be an opportunity here.  There's room for conversation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Charles Krauthammer is back with us now.

I mean, we would prefer -- we encouraged them, what are we doing?

KRAUTHAMMER: We're doing nothing. The administration is aimless, clueless, never had a strategy and now is utterly humiliated. We actually had the president's spokesman today saying that the Russians are acting out of weakness, they have lost influence in the region.

CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: You can't argue against that because it's a delusion that requires chemical treatment. This is really a problem. The Russians are on the rise who are now accounting in Syria.  They are invited by the Iraqis, as well. They and the Iranians essentially taking over Syria as we watch, that they are losing, they are losing their influence. In fact, they have been -- the Russians have been attacking, the very people on the ground from the Free Syrian Army who are our allies, the few remaining opposition forces who are not Jehadi, the Russians are hitting it.

Obama was completely taken in by Putin, welcoming the Russians into the Middle East as we saw in the clips you've shown, under the pretense that the Russians would help in the war against ISIL. We know they are not hitting ISIL, and we are now as you just showed soft-peddling it and say -- as the Secretary of State says we would be gravely concerned if they are not attacking ISIL. They are not. They lied to us. And the administration, for all of its concern, is talking about not getting in the way of the Russians, and they not getting in the way of us, which is completely beside the point.

KELLY: Are we watching the end of our status as a superpower?

KRAUTHAMMER: We are watching the culmination of a policy begun by Obama when he came into office to get out of the Middle East. That's all he cared about. He didn't care about holding our games in Iraq. It was a bloody war. You could say that we shouldn't have gotten out in the first place. But when he came in office the war was run -- Obama himself said Iraq was stable, sovereign, that it would be a success, he evacuates the place. It falls apart. The Iranians have come in. The Shia militias have come in. And now the Russians and Hezbollah have come in. It is no surprise. You evacuate the area. You are the superpower. Your allies rely on you. You leave, everything implodes and our allies from the Israelis to the Saudis to the Jordanians are in absolute panic over the fact that the umbrella America has held over the region for half a century has been folded deliberately by Barack Obama.

KELLY: Charles Krauthammer, thank you sir, good to see you.

KRAUTHAMMER: My pleasure.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Well, you just heard Charles saying the American umbrella of security over the Middle East has now folded, saying our allies have been left alone, including Israel. In fact, while Russia and Iran were today consolidating their power to support one of the most brutal dictators in the Middle East, the Israeli Prime Minister was speaking to The United Nations, sounding a powerful warning. Watch this about the dangers of Iran growing power.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NETANYAHU: Seventy years after the murder of six million Jews, Iran's rulers promised to destroy my country, murder my people, and the response from this body has been absolutely nothing, response from nearly every one of the government's represented here has been absolutely nothing, utter silence, deafening silence. Perhaps you can understand why Israel is not joining you in celebrating this deal. If Iran's rulers were working to destroy your countries, perhaps you'd be less enthusiastic about the deal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Ambassador Ron Dermer is the Israeli Ambassador to the United States.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Good to see you, Ambassador.

RON DERMER, ISRAELI AMBASSADOR TO THE US: Good to be with you.

KELLY: Powerful moment there, 45 seconds he stood in silence and shamed those Presidents for their failure to condemn the rhetoric and the intentions of the Iranian regime. And, yet, hasn't that ship already sailed?

DERMER: Well, no because Israel has the power to defend itself and as you've heard from the Prime Minister today, no matter what decision is going to made at the United Nations, no matter what decisions are made in the capitals around the world, Israel will do what ever it must do in order to defend itself. It was important for the prime minister -- I think you and saw that right now, to convey a sense of what Israelis feel when they see people rushing to do business with the regime that is openly committed to the destruction of Israel.

KELLY: He talked about how the commander of Iran's army just proclaimed we will annihilate Israel for sure. He quoted Ayatollah Khomeini saying there will be no Israel in 25 years. They can say these things. They can come right out and state their intentions. And there's really not much backlash on them. We've been told here, that's just bluster.

DERMER: Yeah, well that's what they said about another regime 70 years ago. They said it's all for domestic, political consumption. It's an outrage. I'm very proud of what the prime minister did today. I think that those countries all had to understand what every single person in Israel feels 70 years after the holocaust -- that you can have a leader of Iran who will call for the annihilation of another member state of the United Nations and no one saying anything is absolutely outrageous.

KELLY: And in the meantime, we're seeing Iran grow. It's going in power.  I mean what we're seeing right now in Syria is a coalition that is going to prove very dangerous, according to the experts, as they join in partnership with Russia and moving into Syria -- physically Iran is now. Does he support the Russian effort backed by Iran and Syria right now or does he not?

DERMER: Look, Syria is big -- you got all sorts of players in Syria.  You've got the Russians, you've got Hezbollah, you've got Iran, you've got ISIS, you have Assad, you have the rebels, and you have all these forces that are working in Syria. The prime minister is responsible for the security of his country Israel, and he has to convey to the world and to the Russians which he did in visiting President Putin last week, what Israel's policy is, to not allow Iran to open the terror front against Israel from Syria, to not allow for the firing rockets into Israel, and to not allow for the transfer of weapons to Hezbollah. You said that quite clearly today.

KELLY: I got it. So we're not going to go my question, but the position on it as far as Israel stands is keep Iran away from us and don't allow it to cause any more damage or get in a position to do so, Ambassador, good to see you.

DERMER: Good to see you.

KELLY: All the best.

Well, the growing list of states now preparing for the worst, declaring a state of emergency ahead of hurricane Joaquin, up next new details on when and where it will hit.

And earlier this year, Mitt Romney said he had ruled out a 2016 run. But now, his wife, Anne, has suggested something you may find shocking. Brian Kilmeade is here on that.

Plus, this October has been called make it or break it -- the make it or break it month for the 2016 campaigns, and Frank Luntz is here next with his own focus group research on who still got a chance and who is likely done.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: Breaking tonight, four more states joining a growing list of states declaring a state of emergency now as Hurricane Joaquin moves in on the east coast. The now cat-four storm packing 130 mile per hour winds as it barrels through the central Bahamas earlier today. Our Chief Meteorologist Rick Reichmuth is live in the Fox Weather Center for us tonight, Rick.

RICK REICHMUTH, FOX NEWS METEOROLOGIST: Megyn, the strongest storm we've had in the Atlantic in four years and it has been pummeling the Bahamas all day long. And we've probably about another 18 hours or so, that's going to cause major problems. All right, last night we had a big talk about who we like better, the European model or the American GFS model. All the other models were indicating the land fall across the east. The European model we like it so much that we could not say it was going to make land fall.  Now, take a look at what's happened. The other one has gotten on line.  We're not going to be looking at a direct land fall from the storm across the eastern seaboard. That is good if we see this stay off shore.

That said, look at this storm, this is future radar. There is a big tropical connection to rain we're going to see here across the Carolinas all weekend long. And by the time we're done with this, Megyn, we could be looking at 18-20 inches of rain. That would be historic, catastrophic, the worst flooding we've ever seen in that area. So we're going to watch that very closely this weekend.

KELLY: Not heaving any sigh of relief yet, Rick, thank you.

REICHMUTH: You bet.

KELLY: Developing on the campaign trail, this October has been called the make it or break it month, for the (AUDIO GAP) toward the nomination, which means the success of a good campaign ad and how voters react to it, more critical than ever right now. And joining us with the highlights we've seen recently, Frank Luntz, Pollster and CEO of Luntz Global and the Author of What Americans really want, really. Frank, good to see you, so what they really want is more apparently of ads like this one from Dr. Carson, let's show the audience what you did with your dials in your focus group, watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BEN CARSON: People are so concerned about the future. The big message is that this country was designed around -- we the people, and for and by the people, and that we need a government that actually understands that and doesn't think that it is the ruler of the people. Learning from crowds that they are hungry for some integrity, for some honesty, and for some real solutions to the problems they have, not so much interested in partisan bickering and wisecracks and -- of other people. And that's perfect.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Even the Democrats love that one, Frank, why?

FRANK LUNTZ, LUNTZ GLOBAL CEO: Yes, and that's point because he talks about integrity and government. It is the number one attribute, integrity that the American people are looking for from their next President of the United States. And by the way, one of the key differences here is that it is Ben Carson himself speaking, not some unseen announcer, not someone else talking about him, and that's the reason why it makes it effective. We feel that we understand exactly what Ben Carson wants to do and the American people like it.

KELLY: All right. I'm about to show a Chris Christie ad that you say they liked to. But let me ask you before we watch this. Does it matter? Chris Christie's polling very low. So do these ads really translate into votes?

LUNTZ: We don't know now. The ads clearly -- Chris Christie is not many people's first choice. What we've seen in our polling is he's a lot of people's second or third choice. And so the ad can have an impact on pushing those people over the line.

KELLY: Let's watch what happened.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CHRIS CHRISTIE: The Democratic legislature, the Americans for tax reform just said that Chris Christie has made more tax increases than any Governor in American history. We cut 800 programs out of the state budget to bring the state budget into balance without raising taxes. Nearly 200,000 new private sector jobs because we cut taxes, made government smaller, you need to be willing to stand up to Congress and tell them what you won't do so then you can drag them to doing what the American people want them to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Very powerful, incredibly powerful. And the reason why he takes on Congress which is the most unpopular institution in America today, and he does so with the issue that Republicans care about, which is taxes as well as be willing to veto any tax increase. That's what the American people are saying to Congress. Stand up and fight.

KELLY: Anybody -- before I let you go, anybody who you think is done?

LUNTZ: All right, at this point, let me do it the other direction, I think Donald Trump is still alive. And in fact in the testing we've done, both Trump's ads and his tax plan he continues to do surprisingly well for some of the things he said about candidates is really very powerful that he still continues to do that well.

KELLY: You ended on a positive note instead of a mean note. We appreciate it, Frank, good to see you.

LUNTZ: Good to see you.

KELLY: Let's not talk about who is done, let's talk about whom is still alive. Even though he has denied it, rumors have been swirling that Mitt Romney may still jump into this race, can you believe?

Up next, wait until you hear what Anne Romney told our own Brian Kilmeade today, and later, guess who's turning 100 today. And you're invited to the party. Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: From the world headquarters of Fox News, it's "The Kelly File" with Megyn Kelly.

KELLY: Reports popping up repeatedly now that Mitt Romney is considering jumping into the 2016 race. And wait until you hear what Anne Romney told our Brian Kilmeade, the co-host of Fox and Friends. What did she tell you?

BRIAN KILMEADE, CO-HOST OF "FOX & FRIENDS": Essentially she came (INAUDIBLE) and I asked her about the response been, she says people are calling all the time for our pastor saying it is time to think about it again. We are assessing.

KELLY: We are assessing.

KILMEADE: We are assessing. And I started thinking about that. It is really intriguing because donors calling. So I called Larry from the University of Virginia, and he essentially says there is a panic in the Republican higher-ups right now that Donald Trump is leading the way he's leading and that he would be possibly an alternative. If he was to jump in, he would jump in among the top, however he would hurt Jeb Bush the most.

(CROSSTALK)

KILMEADE: Here's what he would run on -- I was right. I was right about Russia.

KELLY: But then she also told you that she and Mitt do a high five every morning saying, are we glad we're not in this.

KILMEADE: That's true. But she also for the longest time we're never going to go in again. And then for a weekend she did think about jumping in again. I really sense they felt as though they should have won the last time. I think it is in the back of their minds should the opportunity happen.

KELLY: That would be major news. Ok, moving on to more pleasant topics like weddings other than politics. Apparently, there is a couple that has sent the bill for the wedding dinner to a guest who pulled a no-show at the last-minute.

KILMEADE: It's Jessica Baker. She is a stay-at-home mom with her husband wants to go her cousins wedding, was unable to get a babysitter when her mom pulled out. So she did not show up and did not call.

(CROSSTALK)

KILMEADE: I am for the bride and groom. You know how much it costs, $31,000 to throw a wedding. And all of a sudden -- I sense it was more than one person not to show up.

KELLY: But the bride and groom said no children allowed at our wedding so she had no choice, she couldn't even take her kid.

KILMEADE: The answer -- supermarkets. Supermarkets have cork boards that say we have babysitter situation wanted.

(CROSSTALK)

KILMEADE: No, I don't know what you're thinking. Have a depth chart with your babysitter. You can't be one and done.

KELLY: I say they both committed a faux pas. You say you are going, you are going and if you can't go, you at least call at the last minute. You volunteer to pay.

KILMEADE: If you wanted to do Megyn Kelly on etiquette (Inaudible).

KELLY: Is it good etiquette for Iranian men to pretend to be women to play on their soccer team, because apparently nine of them were doing that.

KILMEADE: Right. In 2014, seven and in this year eight, they claim that they were in the middle of a sex change operation but in the end when they retired they retired as men, which goes to show you, how do we trust Iranians to inspect our nuclear equipment if we can't trust them to inspect their own personal equipment? Because in the end these men dressed as women still can't be ranked as the top 50 in the world. We can't really tell if you're a man or a woman.

KELLY: Brian Kilmeade and Nana is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KELLY: We end a sad day of news on a happy note. October 1st, 1915, my nana, Antoinette Halsworth came into this world. And tonight a tribute made by my niece Emily Crossly, Happy 100th birthday, Nana.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Another turning point a fork stuck in the road, time grabs you by the wrist, directs you where to go so make the best of this test and don't ask why, it's not a question but a lesson learned in time.

It's something unpredictable but in the end is right, I hope you had the time of your life.

It's something unpredictable but in the end is right, I hope you had the time of your life.

KELLY: What was your best year? What was your best age?

ANTOINETTE HALSWORTH: When I got married I was 23…

KELLY: Aw.

HALSWORTH: He was 30.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KELLY: Happy birthday. Goodnight.

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