This is a rush transcript from "Sunday Morning Futures," May 3, 2015. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
MARIA BARTIROMO, HOST: Good morning. Peace being restored to a city in turmoil over the death of a 25-year-old man after being arrested by the police. Hi, everyone. I'm Maria Bartiromo. Welcome to "Sunday Morning Futures."
We are looking at the decisions made by local city leaders in handling the protests over Freddie Gray's death. And we will get our panel's thoughts on the charges against the six officers involved.
Plus, just how much is our economy influenced by China? Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson talks with me about China's changing economy and the impact on jobs in the U.S.
Plus, the future is bright for an American auto giant. The CEO of Ford Motor with me about the state of the business and the big changes to some of his most popular models, as we look ahead this morning on "Sunday Morning Futures."
The Senate is expected to vote this week on its Iran nuclear bill. The bipartisan legislation would give lawmakers a say on any final nuclear deal with Iran, giving them 30 days to pass a resolution of disapproval as well as preventing the White House from lifting certain sanctions on Iran.
Meanwhile, Iran is waging a war of words right now, warning Congress that it is, in fact, powerless to stop this potential agreement. Joining me now is Republican Senator Jerry Moran of Kansas. He is a member of the Senate Commerce, Banking and Appropriations Committees.
Senator, good to have you on the program. Thanks so much for joining us.
SEN. JERRY MORAN, R-KAN.: Maria, good morning. Good to be with you.
BARTIROMO: Is Congress, in fact, powerless on this deal?
MORAN: Well, certainly Congress has been excluded in this deal for a long time. I've been to a number of even classified briefings in which you learn very little about the content of where the Obama administration is going, what the deal will look like. And so I think Congress is finally reasserting itself into the process.
You outlined the nature of this legislation, which would say that, first of all, after five days, the president has to provide written description -- not just description, the words of any agreement.
I've asked for what's the agreement to date, where's this piece of paper with signatures on it from Iran and the United States? Apparently, it doesn't exist, nothing we've seen. So we would see the agreement.
Secondly, the sanctions could not be lifted while the Congress considers that agreement. That's important. And the problem that we have here is that the current sanctions imposed by Congress against Iran have national security waivers provisions in them that allow a president to waive those sanctions.
And so Congress gave up, in my view now, too much of its authority. And, finally, every 90 days, a president, this one and the next, would have to certify that the Iranians are complying with the agreement.
The real purpose, I think, in this legislation, is to get the American people through Congress to be able to see what the agreement is, and then the American people, through Congress, can determine whether or not this agreement is worthy of the United States entering into.
BARTIROMO: And, of course, as we speak, Iran is saying, "Well, we want the sanctions lifted as soon as the deal is signed, if not earlier."
I want to get your take, Senator, on whether or not you believe that the vote will come to pass this week and whether or not the president will sign it. So stay with us. We've got a lot to talk about it with you today, Senator Moran.
But first, let's look at exactly what is in that bill and what's at stake. Fox News senior correspondent Eric Shawn with that angle. Eric, good morning to you.
ERIC SHAWN, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Maria. And good morning, everyone.
As we have been saying this morning, that Senate bill on Iran set to be finally voted on this coming week. But the big question this morning, what will be in it, and more importantly, will it really work?
The bill, named after Republican senator Bob Corker and Democrat Ben Cardin, would give Congress oversight but not approval of any agreement with Iran. It would block President Obama from ending sanctions for 60 days while Congress reviews the deal and, as the senator said, certify every 90 days that Iran is actually complying.
But a flurry of amendments were floated to try and change it. One would have certified Iran does not support terrorism that kills Americans, another that Iran recognize Israel. And then there was the demand that Tehran release the three U.S. citizens still imprisoned there, a Christian pastor, a Washington Post reporter and a Marine veteran.
Those amendments came from Senators Tom Cotton, an outspoken Iran critic, and Marco Rubio. But the legislation could slam into Oval Office opposition before it ever hits Tehran.
JOSH EARNEST, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: The president would certainly veto any amendment or any bill with an amendment that -- that undermined the unanimous compromise that was reached in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee or that interfered with the ongoing negotiations.
SHAWN (voice over): And the leader of the largest Iranian opposition group, Maryam Rajavi of the National Council of Resistance of Iran, warned a congressional hearing just this past week that the West has not done enough to hold Iran accountable.
MARYAM RAJAVI, PRESIDENT, NATIONAL COUNCIL OF RESISTANCE OF IRAN: The mullahs sought to obtain nuclear weapons, to export fundamentalism and guarantee their own existence. Unfortunately, little, if anything, was done to prevent the export of fundamentalism.
SHAWN: But Vice President Joe Biden insists, if Iran does not comply, the deal would be dead.
VICE PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: If what's on the table doesn't meet the president's requirements, there will be no deal. And a final deal must effectively cut off Iran's uranium, plutonium and covert pathways to a bomb. If it doesn't, there will be no deal.
SHAWN: The vice president also said that, without an agreement, Iran could have enough enriched uranium in three months to build eight bombs. So while the Senate moves to a vote this week, Iran continues to enrich, itself a brazen violation of six United Nations Security Council agreements against just that. Maria?
BARTIROMO: Amazing. Thanks very much, Eric Shawn, with the latest there. More now with Senator Jerry Moran.
And, Senator, Joe Biden just said, if this doesn't meet the president's standards, there will be no deal. The question is, does the president have the same standards as Congress?
MORAN: that's a great question. And I think the answer clearly, from my point of view and many of us in Washington, D.C. and Congress, is he does not. The president seems so intent upon negotiating a deal that it doesn't seem to matter what the contents of that agreement are.
And while the vice president said what he said, that's certainly not the way I understand the nature of the agreement. But again, Congress has been shut out. There has been no light shined upon -- little light shined upon what the agreement is or will be, and you hear the Iranians contradict what the administration says they've agreed to.
And still, you have the Iranians insisting that the sanctions be lifted before the agreement is signed. That -- no one would negotiate in that fashion.
And here's what I think where we are, is that we need to make certain -- we're not negotiating the agreement. My guess is this agreement is bad for the United States, bad for our allies, supporters and friends in the Middle East and around the globe, damaging to our country's national security, creates an opportunity for terrorists to have national -- nuclear weapons. All of that, the outcome is not good.
Where we are today is trying to get Democrats, particularly Senate Democrats, to tell the president this is a bad deal. And, unfortunately, what we find ourselves in is almost no Senate Democrat, no Democrat willing to face the president.
And I don't say that in a partisan way. We need Republicans to tell the president -- a Republican president -- that it's wrong. We need Democrats to tell a Democrat president it's wrong. And we need to put the national security way above the nature of partisan politics in this country, and that's not happening. This legislation now pending -- my hope is, once the American people see what is in an agreement...
MORAN: ... that they will then insist that we, Congress, oppose that agreement.
BARTIROMO: Well, how -- how is the American people going to see it when you can't even see it?
MORAN: That's the point of this legislation, is the president must, within five days of reaching an agreement, present the actual language of the agreement to Congress. That then allows us and the American people to see it.
To me, that is a primary mission of this legislation, is to put pressure on Congress to then reject a bad deal.
BARTIROMO: Right, understood.
Senator, let me get your thoughts on the latest out of Yemen. Because, speaking of upset, we've got reports this morning that Yemeni military officials say at least 20 Arab Coalition troops have, in fact, landed in the southern coastal city of Aden on a reconnaissance mission.
What do you know about this Arab coalition now in Yemen?
MORAN: Well, what I would say is, first of all, the forces that we oppose and that the Saudis oppose in Yemen are supported by Iran. What I think we see is Iran willing to take this point in time in which the administration is so intent upon getting an agreement, to expand their efforts to attack American interests around the globe.
We saw the hijacking of a ship in the strait of Hormuz in the last few days. Iran is very active all the time, but especially at the moment, while this agreement is pending and the administration is unwilling to do anything in response because they want the agreement signed.
So, again, I think we need to start with the premise that Iran is a very dangerous country in the world, the largest promoter of terrorism. And yet, we believe we can strike, and the administration believes they can strike a deal with them related to nuclear capabilities. It just highlights how dangerous the world is. We need a president who, when he or she draws the line in the sand and says, "This is our position," that we respond when that line is broken.
And so what we are missing in today's national security efforts on protecting our country is a president who speaks and is trusted by our allies and feared by our enemies. Yemen is an example of where our allies don't trust us and our enemies aren't fearful of us.
BARTIROMO: Senator, good to have you on the program today. Thanks very much. We'll be watching.
MORAN: Maria, thanks.
BARTIROMO: Senator Jerry Moran.
Meanwhile China (INAUDIBLE) stock market (INAUDIBLE) in the world. This week the cover of Barron's. But my next guest has a different view. Former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson on the economies in China and the United States. His pick as well for White House in 2016. We'll tell you who he's endorsing. Follow us on Twitter @MariaBartiromo, @SundayFutures. And stay with us as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. The Chinese stock market is up 120 percent in the past year, even as the economy of China has slowed. I spoke with former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson about that and more at the Milken Institute Global Conference in California this past week.
BARTIROMO: For several years, China was the growth story for the world with an enormous growth rate, being able to impact other economies globally. Today that growth rate has slowed down.
Joining us now to talk more about China and its impact on the world is Hank Paulson, former U.S. Treasury Secretary, who has studied China a lot for several years.
Hank, good to see you.
HANK PAULSON, FORMER U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY: Maria, it's good to be here.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for joining us. You're out with a new book "Dealing with China: An Insider Unmasks the New Economic Superpower."
Talk to us about where China is today relative to 10 years ago.
PAULSON: Well, relative to 10 years ago, China's come a long way, taken hundreds of millions of people out of poverty. It's the second largest economy in the world. Unless something goes terribly wrong, it's an economy that's on track to replace the U.S. as the largest economy in the not-too-distant future.
But China, as you said in your introduction, has got some serious issues because the policies that got them where they are today need to be changed. They have an economic model that's running out of steam. Growth has slowed way down. I don't think that should concern or surprise anyone.
If China could grow, you know, somewhere between 6 percent and 7 percent on a sustainable basis with a model that works, that's a very good thing for China and for the rest of the world. They've been overly reliant not just on exports, but they been overly reliant on debt at the municipal level, which mayors are using to fund growth, drive growth, investing in infrastructure.
They need to adjust their economic policies and be less reliant on investment and infrastructure and open up the economy to more competition from the private sector.
And their leaders, you know, the new president, Xi Jinping, is focused on that. He's working to have the market be decisive with the private sector, but it's easier said than done. So it's going to take a while.
BARTIROMO: So how much of an impact has the China slowdown had on the U.S.?
Look, I recognize that there are a lot of things happening in the United States right now. But for the longest time, we were looking at an 11 percent growth rate in China having a big impact on the U.S.
Now we're down to 6 percent or 7 percent, depending on who you believe in China.
Has that been part of the reason we're seeing an uneven situation here?
PAULSON: Well, not just China; there are structural issues in China, and that economy is slowing down. There are serious structural issues in Europe. You look at what's happening in Japan, look what's happening in Latin America. So the United States' economy has really been performing quite well relative to what's going on around us.
But I think your question really gets at a significant fact, which is our issues. We've got some significant economic issues we're dealing with here in the United States. We're not growing fast enough. There's too much income disparity and so on.
Our issues will be easier to deal with if China continues to be a contributor, significant contributor to global economic growth. Of course, if their economy were to seriously stumble, our issues would be more difficult to deal with.
BARTIROMO: When the GOP took the lead in Congress back in November, everybody thought tax reform would be the low-hanging fruit, that would be the easy thing. We all agree on that. You worked in Washington.
How come it's so difficult to get this stuff done?
PAULSON: Oh, it's always difficult to get these things done, always difficult. But the best chance is divided government so that each side can compromise and blame some of the things they need to do for the good of the country on the other. So it takes strong leadership from the top, from the president, and cooperation.
And our political system -- our problems, in my judgment, are not economic problems. They're political problems.
The question is, can our political system work to get the difficult things we need to do? Because the world is changing, and our policies need to be adjusted to deal with the changes in the world.
BARTIROMO: Is there anyone in the current field that you think can bring us together and get these big things done?
PAULSON: Presidential candidates?
PAULSON: Well, there's obviously going to be some people that are going to -- I say obviously because I'm an optimist -- that are going to emerge over time.
The candidate I favor is Jeb Bush, simply because he's experienced as a governor, because I think he's inclusive when I look at some of his policies, whether it's in immigration or, you know, in education. More importantly to me, even than that, is fact that I think he has -- is going to have economic policies that can get us growing again and not leaving so many people behind.
But again, they're not simple answers. There's the temptation in the political season to start pointing the fingers and looking for scapegoats, to scapegoat China or the Democrats to scapegoat the Republicans, the Republicans scapegoat the Democrats or scapegoat the big banks or whatever. You're always going to have populism when you have problems like this.
But to me, the solutions are fundamental economic reforms, which we need to put in place to restore the competitiveness of our economy.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for joining us.
PAULSON: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: Hank Paulson is the former Treasury Secretary of the United States.
BARTIROMO: Meanwhile, the U.S. auto market influenced by how long you hold on to your car. Ford CEO Mark Fields is with us next on replacement demand and the return of one of the most popular vehicles, the F-150. We're looking ahead this morning on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. One of the strongest parts of the economic recovery has been the auto business. Ford Motor this past week reporting first quarter earnings of net income of $924 million. Ford CEO Mark Fields says technology and time will keep the momentum going.
MARK FIELDS, CEO, FORD MOTOR: Market is good. It's really being driven by replacement demand. For the last five years, the industry has run below replacement demand. So you're seeing that on a very steady base. And I think barring any kind of exogenous shock, we see the U.S. market as pretty good, competitive but relatively healthy.
BARTIROMO: I know you recently relaunched the Lincoln Continental. I want to get to that, but let's talk first about the 150.
Our audience loves light trucks. I know that. And I want to ask you about the aluminum components here.
When you look at the Ford F-150 right now, it's all aluminum.
What are the capabilities of aluminum right now?
FIELDS: Well, when you look at what we did with the vehicle, it's pretty revolutionary. We first started listening to customers when we were developing the new vehicle. They told us they want more capability, more towing, more payload and they want great fuel economy.
Our engineers decided, OK, how technically can we deliver that?
The new F-150 is pretty revolutionary. It has a high-strength steel frame that undergirds the truck. But then all the body panels, the cab, the roof, the fenders, the bed, the truck bed, all aluminum. So it drops 750 pounds off of the vehicle. The vehicle went on a big diet.
You get more capability because of that. We launched the vehicle last year, the end of last year and it's selling at four times the rate than any other full-size pickup right now.
BARTIROMO: Would you like to see things like tax reform?
Would you like to see trade deals, things like that, that could actually make a difference?
FIELDS: The things we'd like to see are trade deals that promote American products abroad on a level playing field. We'd like to see tax reform. We'd like to see taxes lower in a simplified code. We think that would good for the country. And we'd like to see regulatory certainty. In our business, there's a long lead time to be able to react to those things.
BARTIROMO: I'm glad you mentioned that because manager after manager has come in here and said that the EPA rules have actually become quite onerous and is actually getting in the way of growth.
FIELDS: Obviously, you know, we spend a lot of time with the EPA and NHTSA, which is the other regulatory body. We've agreed on the one national standard, which is a fuel economy level for our fleet by the year 2025. And as part of that, was a very important midterm review that we're going to have in 2018. Because to meet those fuel economy requirements, we have to have a much greater percentage of electrified vehicles being bought by customers and that we sell.
So we want to have that midterm review because what we're seeing is, with the current cost of a gallon of gas, we're not seeing the adoption rates that we thought we would.
BARTIROMO: I think it's a really good point.
Is that the reason that the electric sort of revolution hasn't necessarily gained traction yet?
I mean, you came out with an electric car way before a lot of people or talked about it certainly way early. Yet, it didn't gain traction.
So what is it going to take to actually get people to buy into this and believe it?
FIELDS: You have to have compelling product. We have a full lineup of electrified vehicles, conventional hybrids, plug-in hybrids and full battery electric vehicles.
But a lot of it comes down to, from a consumer standpoint, how fast are they going to want to adopt it and at what cost?
That's why the cost of fuel is a really important piece of it. If there's a premium to buy those kinds of vehicles, which there are because there's more technology, more cost in it, the customer has to see the payback on it. So I think that's why we're really looking forward to this midterm review with the government officials to talk about the feasibility of the shared goals that we put out.
BARTIROMO: Final question and that is you recently relaunched the Lincoln Continental. This was a very popular car in its heyday and it's back again.
FIELDS: Well, we have a real strong commitment to Lincoln as a world- class luxury brand and a client experience to match. We set out a plan for Lincoln a couple years ago. We said we were going to introduce four vehicles in four years. This is the fourth year.
Next year we're going to be introducing our full-sized sedan, which is the Continental. We're using this period of time to introduce our Continental concept vehicle, which is going to be a strong hint at what the new Continental is going to be. For us, this is really about signaling what we call the future of quiet luxury, a vehicle that's elegant, that has effortless power and has an interior that's serene and relaxing and almost a place to chill.
BARTIROMO: Good to have you on the program.
BARTIROMO: Mark Fields is CEO and president at Ford Motor.
BARTIROMO: Coming up next, calm being restored in Baltimore. The city having a day of peace after a week of protesters, following the arrest of six officers in the death of Freddie Gray. Our panel begins there as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
SHAWN: From America's news headquarters, I'm Eric Shawn. Here are some other stories making headlines at this hour.
A New York City police officer is in stable condition this morning after suffering a gunshot wound to the head. Police say it happened last night after a suspect opened fire on an unmarked police vehicle.
The officer, who was in plain clothes, is 25-year-old Brian Moore. He underwent surgery last night. Moore has been a member of the NYPD since 2010. Police have charged a 35-year-old suspect with attempted murder. He's expected to appear before a judge this afternoon.
Right now there's no word if there's any possible connection to the recent protests or if this was a random criminal act.
More than one week after that catastrophic earthquake, crews in Nepal rescuing three more survivors. Officials say they found them in a mountain village still alive. The death toll for that quake now stands at more than 7,000 victims.
I'll be back with Patty M. Brown (ph) at noon Eastern with more news. Then the doctors as always are in. Drs. Siegel and Samadi join us for "Sunday Housecall" two hours from now at 12:30 Eastern. So for now, I'm Eric Shawn. Back to "Sunday Morning Futures" and Maria.
BARTIROMO: Thank you, Eric.
Community leaders, state officials holding a day of prayer in Baltimore today. It is an effort to heal a shaken and angry city after the death of Freddie Gray. Six police officers now face charges ranging from assault to second-degree murder after the 25-year-old died of severe spinal cord injuries he sustained while in police custody.
I want to bring in our panel on this. Ed Rollins is former principle White House advisor to President Reagan. He has been a long-time strategist to business and political leaders. He is a Fox News political analyst.
Judith Miller is adjunct fellow at The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. She's a Pulitzer Prize winning author and journalist and a Fox News contributor.
Anthony Scaramucci is the co-managing partner and founder of SkyBridge Capital and a Fox Business contributor.
Good to see everybody. Thank you for joining us.
Ed, your reaction to the response.
ED ROLLINS, POLITICAL CAMPAIGN STRATEGIST: Obviously we all watched this on television. We haven't had situations like this since the '60s. I'm the only one old enough to remember all of that. In 1968, we had 120 cities in America burned, including our capital, worse than Detroit, Watts several times.
The problem with Baltimore is it's a city like many other places in the country, urban areas. There's no easy solutions. You have a lot of unemployed young African Americans, uneducated. They basically -- it's like a tinder. You now have a situation where police across this country are being positioned as bad people. And they're the good people. They're the ones keeping us all safe, including those neighborhoods.
You just grab quickly the headlines, you have two young, ambitious political people. The mayor of the city, who basically is a new mayor. The prosecutor has been on the job for four months. Both have political ambitions, both come from political families.
At the end of the day, this is a rush to judgment to charge people with murder when all they basically did was try to transport. There's no evidence that they beat this guy up. There's no evidence of any of that.
My sense is you just create a situation to where this could break out everyplace and we had an incident here last night in New York. The fifth police officer to be shot in the head while sitting in his car. The only way you're going to apprehend people in the future if they resist arrest is shoot them with a tranquilizer, wrap them in cotton gauze, call an EMS vehicle and deliver them to a hospital and have the doctor sign off that you didn't do any police brutality.
BARTIROMO: So upsetting. Unbelievable.
ROLLINS: I think it could be a very serious and could be a very long summer because it's building across the country.
BARTIROMO: What about the national response, Judy?
JUDITH MILLER, AUTHOR AND JOURNALIST: Look, the national response is what it always is. A discussion of root causes, underlying causes. I just want to go back to what Ed said. That is, what, 1965, and right after that the McCone Commission looked at , quote, "the underlying causes" and guess what they were? Unemployment, poor schools, and poor police community relations.
In other words, despite the war on poverty, all of the money we've pumped into the cities, none of this has worked. This is such a persistent, deep-seated problem, and no one really has some good solutions on what to do about this.
But I agree. I think the long, hot summer, if things get out of hand, could become the issue for the candidates ahead.
ROLLINS: Equally as important, the political situation is such that obviously liberal Democrats always want to spend more money. We spent billions of dollars on a war on poverty, a war on drugs.
Even in this community, $130 million was spent to be developed 20 years ago, which is now a total failure. My sense today is Republicans are not going to spend more money on urban programs, and Democrats are going to want to do that. So it's going to add to the chaos.
You have a perfect situation. We have inexperienced people I talked about with a very experienced police chief, who's also black, who was the chief of police in Oakland, California, where four police officers were killed. He's had a long experience as police commissioner and they wouldn't let him do his job.
ANTHONY SCARAMUCCI, SKYBRIDGE CAPITAL: I just want to speak as an entrepreneur for a second. We've had 50 failed years of urban policy. Now we have to disrupt that urban policy and look at what is really causing this. Maybe Daniel Patrick Moynihan was right when he talked about defining deviancy downward by creating a permanent world where people are dependent on the government.
So as an entrepreneur I think we now have to shatter some of the false totems that are out there and work on restoring what I think is important, which is the individual.
We have to get these kids very early, Maria, and we've got to try to give them opportunity that they don't feel that they have because ultimately, these acts of violence are coming from desperation.
BARTIROMO: Absolutely. That's the underlying issue.
MILLER: Moynihan spoke about the importance of providing work, not just about the collapse of the black family, the importance of providing jobs. And nobody's doing that effectively.
BARTIROMO: It's not income inequality, it's opportunity inequality.
MILLER: And jobs.
ROLLINS: But to a certain extent, we're watching similar things around the world. We're watching unemployed kids, uneducated, creating chaos. The difference is in these urban areas today they all have cell phones, they all can text. They can create a riot very quickly.
The only thing that's going to stop them is going to be good law enforcement. We can't basically walk away from our cops. They're out there on the line. The idea that you take six police officers and indict them for murder is just absurd.
BARTIROMO: I want to get your take also on the response to the Iran talks. You say no one's covering what Joe Biden said.
Stay with us, everybody. We want to get a look at what's coming up top of the hour on "MEDIA BUZZ," Howard Kurtz is standing by -- Howie. Good morning to you.
HOWARD KURTZ, HOST, "MEDIABUZZ": Good morning, Maria. We're going to look at the media's very central role in the Baltimore story from journalists getting roughed up on the streets to getting in a war of words with city officials, to the question of whether we only pay attention to the inner cities when there is violence.
And also, "Clinton Cash" author Peter Schweitzer will be here at the top of hour talking about the media criticism of his book and his partisan background.
BARTIROMO: All right. We'll be there. We'll see you there in about 20 minutes, Howie. Thanks so much.
Meanwhile, the race for the White House growing. A handful of Republicans set to jump in this week as Hillary Clinton gets her first challenger on the Democratic side as well. We'll be back with our panel as we look ahead to 2016 on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. The presidential field expected to widen this upcoming week. Several Republicans are expected to jump into the race. Plus, liberal Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders threw his hat in the ring as the challenger for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary. He says he's running to win and will hold an official campaign launch on May 26th. But does he really stand a chance?
We bring it back to our panel, Ed Rollins, Judith Miller, Anthony Scaramucci.
What do you think, Ed?
ROLLINS: He doesn't stand a chance. There's nobody who thinks he does. But it gives Democrats an opportunity to really vote for socialists - - many of my socialist friends in New York...
... to actually vote for someone who's a -- who's a committed socialist. I think she may -- he may pull Hillary to the left, though, and I think that's a danger for her. Democrats are desperately looking for an alternative to Hillary because they don't think she's a good candidate and they don't think this campaign's going very well.
BARTIROMO: How does it look to you, Anthony?
SCARAMUCCI: Well, I want him to win all 50 states, Maria.
I want him to trounce Mrs. Clinton around the country, including Hawaii. But I think, at the end of the day, this is just one of those vanity campaigns that you see every year.
SCARAMUCCI: You get five or 10 vanity campaigns on the Republican side. This is the one vanity campaign on the Democratic side.
BARTIROMO: So what's going to drive voters in 2016, Judy?
I mean, the issues, economic policy and foreign policy, have only gotten more front and center.
MILLER: Right. Well, foreign policy. I mean, I think that, as we've identified here, normally it's the economy, but it can also be foreign policy.
I was listening and watching Joe Biden in -- address the Washington Institute in Washington last week, and he said two things to the ayatollah that I hadn't heard before from a senior administration official other than Kerry, which was he said, there's not going to be a deal if the Iranians insist on an immediate lifting of sanctions without snap-back provision, and there's not going to be a deal if military sites are off the table.
"No deal," he said, explicitly. That's a message to the ayatollah and also a message to Bibi Netanyahu not to interfere in what he considers an American affair.
BARTIROMO: The question that I asked Senator Moran a few minutes ago was, the standards that the president has in terms of, you know, complying, are those the same standards that Congress has?
ROLLINS: No, absolutely not. Congress wants much of what Judy just talked about. They want to make sure that -- or that Joe Biden even talked about. They want to make sure that there's -- that sanctions go off at a later point when they prove that they're going to be good neighbors, which they aren't. And my sense is they're not going to live up to this agreement because they never have before. And I don't think there's any will today to basically pass this in the Congress. The president may try and push it through, but he's got a long ways to go right now.
SCARAMUCCI: Well, this is one of those thing where, if the Republicans win the presidency, you're going to see this get repealed alongside of a whole package of other things on the domestic side, Maria. So there's a lot of hesitancy out there from our allies because of that.
MILLER: It depends on what it -- what the final deal, if there is one, is. I mean, Rubio is just introducing an amendment which is very interesting, saying we basically want the deal that Kerry announced he had two weeks ago. If he doesn't have that deal, we're not for it. That could be a really problematic amendment.
BARTIROMO: Let's not forget what Senator George Mitchell told us on this program a couple of weeks ago. Basically, this is not just about the U.S. and Iran. You need, you know, the go ahead and the blessing from five other superpowers. Are we going to get those countries saying, yeah, this deal is fine? And then, again, Congress is locked out.
ROLLINS: No one has the expertise that George Mitchell does in the Middle East or elsewhere. But, at the end of the day here, what we're dealing with is the American Congress and whether this president, in a weakened position today, has the opportunity to make a deal. I don't think he does anymore. I think he's going to lose on this one. I think he's going to lose on the trade thing. And he's putting a lot of cross-pressure on a lot of Democrats.
SCARAMUCCI: Just one prediction, though. The relationship with Israel is going to get a lot better with the next American presidency. I absolutely believe that. And so, for the Israelis, this is, sort of, a 20- month-and-out sort of thing. They've just got to hold on in there -- a long-standing ally, and I do think it's going to get a lot better for them.
BARTIROMO: Well, real quick, I mean, you've got Carly Fiorina, Huckabee; you've got three -- three new names this week announced officially.
ROLLINS: Huckabee is a potential candidate. He's certainly our friend from Fox here, and I was involved in his campaign before. The critical thing is can he raise money; can he go beyond the moral, evangelical agenda? He has to win Iowa. He won Iowa once before. He's, sort of, a favorite son there. I think he's got a long way to go to get his campaign up and functioning. But it's pretty much the same old campaign. But the key thing is money.
BARTIROMO: And then there's Dr. Ben Carson?
ROLLINS: I don't think that's a viable candidacy.
MILLER: No, I don't think so.
SCARAMUCCI: You have vanity license plates and you have vanity presidential campaigns. The vanity presidential campaign, a little bit more expensive than the vanity license plate.
MILLER: But I'm glad Bernie Sanders is in the race. And I think it is going to be a challenge for Hillary. But I also think it's an advantage in that she's going to have somebody to talk to on the Democratic side...
... other than a bunch of Republicans beating up on her.
ROLLINS: Well, if she's talking to Bernie Sanders and taking advice from him. I'm getting a little worried about that, but...
SCARAMUCCI: If she's smoking pot with him, though -- that's what I want to know.
BARTIROMO: Does he -- does he push her more to the left the way Elizabeth Warren did?
All right. Let's take a short break, and then we're going to talk economic issues. Is it a slump or just a bump in the road? The first quarter's economic data failing to impress. Next Friday could be the day we spring forward when we get the jobs numbers. We'll take a look ahead, on "Sunday Morning Futures," next.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. We are now learning Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings has lifted the curfew put in place after Monday's violent protests over the death of Freddie Gray. The curfew lasted six nights, calling for everyone to be off the streets by 10:00 pm.
We're talking about this with our panel, Ed Rollins, Judith Miller, Anthony Scaramucci.
The right move, Ed, in terms of -- ?
ROLLINS: Obviously, if the governor and the mayor feel that the city is safe, we'll just have to wait and see. My sense is that the indictments calm the city. They may be incorrect, but they calm the city, but they certainly aren't calming the police department.
BARTIROMO: Let's look ahead here for a second. You've got the jobs number out next Friday. That is the April jobs report. Analysts will try to read the tea leaves in terms of what this tells us about the economy. A lot of economic data, as well, after an anemic GDP report showing that the economy grew in the first quarter at an annualized rate of 0.2 percent. It was virtually zero growth.
You've got a big conference next week, Anthony Scaramucci, the SkyBridge Alternative Conference, folks like General Petraeus, Condi Rice, Chuck Hagel, General Alexander, Jack Keane all speaking at your conference.
SCARAMUCCI: Yes and Dr. Ben Bernanke as well. I think that will be a big topic, about where rates will be given where the GDP is right now. Not a lot of room left on rates, meaning they're not going to do quantitative easing again.
So either they leave rates where they are, Maria, or something has to happen on the fiscal side. Washington has to act in terms of tax reform, labor and regulatory reform to get the economy moving again.
BARTIROMO: I love the story on taxes, Ed, about George Soros owing $7 billion in deferred income, that he used every trick in the book to actually avoid paying taxes.
ROLLINS: There's nothing wrong with -- there's 70,000 pages of tax documents that are out there that -- but at the end of the day, he pontificates a great deal. And I think if these guys want to pay more taxes, they can just write a check to the IRS anytime they want to.
BARTIROMO: Well, it's taxes and the fact that wages have not moved. These are some of the issues of the day --
ROLLINS: -- and manufacturing jobs.
MILLER: Well, that's the problem. And people are increasingly questioning these job numbers. Yes, supposedly it's getting better, but people are harder and harder pressed, working two and three jobs. I don't -- I think there's something wrong with the way we're measuring these statistics.
SCARAMUCCI: The numbers, there's a lot of fudging in statistics. And so what happens is that U-6 number, which factors in the labor participation rate and the part-timers, Maria, that's closer to 11 percent. At 11 percent, that's a national economic crisis.
SCARAMUCCI: That's why the Fed is not acting. That 5.3 percent number is sort of fictitious.
BARTIROMO: You spoke with Carl Icahn for an hour on "Wall Street Week," your new show on Fox 5, that's going to air today.
SCARAMUCCI: It's going to air today at 11:00.
BARTIROMO: What'd he say?
SCARAMUCCI: Well, Carl's -- he's pessimistic about where we are in the economic cycle. He's more hedged than he's been in the last five or six years. He likes Apple, but I think he would look at this and say, this is kind of an '06-'07 time period and you've got to get a little bit more defensive now, particularly in the high yield market, Maria.
ROLLINS: There's a big difference between the riots we talked about earlier in the '60s. People could then move from the South or elsewhere and go to work in General Motors or go to work -- and move up in a manufacturing job, to where they could get $30, $40, $50 an hour.
The only hope that these kids have today is to get a job at a McDonald's or a Walmart or something like in that their community and that versus going out and selling drugs for $1,000 a day is --
SCARAMUCCI: But that's a 26-hour job. It's not full-time job to avoid the ObamaCare issues.
ROLLINS: Well, we're not going to solve these problems until we get manufacturing going again in America and the government has to do something to stimulate that or get out of the way. I would argue that to get out of the way would be much better.
MILLER: You have to give this problem attention and you have to match the jobs and the economy needs with what schools are turning out, because there is such a gap. There's such a mismatch. The schools are failing in those areas in particular.
BARTIROMO: All right. We're going to take a short break and then the one thing to watch in the week ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures" from our panel. Back in a minute.
BARTIROMO: We're back with our panel with the one thing to watch for the week ahead.
Ed Rollins, what are you watching?
ROLLINS: I'm watching these urban riots. There's marches everywhere across this country. There's going to be another incident and it's going to escalate. As I said earlier, the ones that were -- there were lots of deaths in the '60s. We have to be on the side of the cops on this one.
BARTIROMO: What are you watching, Anthony?
SCARAMUCCI: The jobs number and the labor participation rate that comes out next Friday will be very meaningful to the Fed. If it sort of stays where it is, I don't see a rate hike in 2015. It will happen sometime in 2016.
BARTIROMO: Well, you've also got all of that commentary coming out of your conference. We'll see if that moves markets next week, including the Carl Icahn interview on "Wall Street Week."
What are you watching?
MILLER: I've had a hard week on Iran, so I'm going to watch London. I know the leading contenders are Elizabeth, Charlotte and Diana for names. But being an American, since we have a Prince George, I would like a Princess Martha.
ROLLINS: I want a conservative victory.
ROLLINS: I want a little Margaret Thatcher.
BARTIROMO: Yes, how about that?
MILLER: Martha or Margaret. I'll take either.
BARTIROMO: Thanks, everybody, great to see you. Thanks so much for joining us. That'll do it for "Sunday Morning Futures." I'm Maria Bartiromo. I'll see you tomorrow morning on "Opening Bell" at 9:00 am Eastern on the Fox Business network.
Take a look at where to find the Fox Business network on your cable network or your satellite provider. Click on "Channel Finder" at foxbusiness.com for more. Have a great Sunday, everybody. Stay with Fox -- "MediaBuzz."
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