This is a rush transcript from "Sunday Morning Futures," November 23, 2014. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
MARIA BARTIROMO, HOST: The Republicans respond. Good morning, everyone. I'm Maria Bartiromo. Welcome to "Sunday Morning Futures."
Speaker John Boehner promised, quote, "The House will act." Now the Judiciary Committee announcing it will hold hearings following President Obama's unilateral immigration actions. The chairman of that committee joins me, moments away.
And remember those 30,000 e-mails that Congress subpoenaed from Lois Lerner that just, kind of, got lost? Well, guess what? Looks like some Treasury Department investigators found them after all. We will talk about it.
Plus the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade. This is the 88th year that it kicks off the holiday shopping season. But are consumers in the mood to buy? We'll ask the CEO of Macy's himself, as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
The House Judiciary Committee planning to hold a hearing on what it says is, quote, "President Obama's power grab," this following the president's announcement last week of unilateral executive action on immigration. Congressman Bob Goodlatte is with me. He is the chairman of that committee.
Congressman, good to have you on the program.
REP. ROBERT W. GOODLATTE, R-VA: Good to be with you, Maria, and your viewers.
BARTIROMO: So what is the response to the president's action?
GOODLATTE: Well, we have a number of avenues to pursue, and there are lots of consultations going on about that right now. But we can take spending actions. We can take legislative action. We can take legal action. And there are a lot of different ways to do each one.
We've now seen the president's specific proposal for a couple days now, and my staff and many other members of Congress and others are hard at work examining the correct approach, but I can assure you one thing, and that is that this is a major assault on the constitutional authority of the Congress, and the Congress, particularly on the Republican side in both the House and the Senate, is very unified in our determination to stop this action.
BARTIROMO: All right. Congressman, I know that the House Republicans are planning a hearing on December 2nd. I want to ask you about that hearing in a moment. But first let's talk about, sort of, the backdrop here. More with Congressman Goodlatte coming up.
First, though, lawmakers overhauling our immigration system. That's nothing new. Let's take a look at some past actions to better understand where we are today and where we could be tomorrow. Fox News senior correspondent Eric Shawn joins us with that angle.
Good morning to you, Eric.
SHAWN: Good morning, Maria. And good morning, everyone.
It is a showdown in Washington, a defiant president accused of violating the Constitution versus a newly empowered Republican Congress intent on not rewarding lawbreakers.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: As you might have heard, there are members of Congress who question my authority to make our immigration system work better. Well, I have one answer for that, pass a bill.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: It was a sweeping order, the president instantly granting 5 million illegals legal status and preventing deportation. Supporters say it is a humane step to protect hardworking immigrants and reform a broken system. Critics bitterly blast the president and his party.
Last year Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants whose own grandfather was reportedly briefly undocumented -- well, he along with others crafted a Senate bill that eventually died in the Republican House.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. MARCO RUBIO, R-FL: We're dealing with this not because we legally have to but because, number one, it is in our national interest as a nation. It is not good for this country to have millions of people living in shadows. And number two, we're dealing with this issue because this is who we are.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SHAWN: And now, in reaction to the president's move, Rubio said this, quote, "We need immigration reform, but the right way to do it is to first bring illegal immigration under control by securing the borders and enforcing the laws, then modernizing our legal immigration system. The president's actions now make all of this harder and are unfair to people in our immigration system who are doing things the right way."
Well, back in 1986 President Ronald Reagan gave so-called amnesty to 3 million illegal immigrants, but that was a bill passed by Congress, not, like President Obama, bypassed by the president.
And there are still about 11 million illegal immigrants here in our country, and they are not going anywhere. So the challenge is to find a solution that is acceptable to both sides, if that is even possible considering the current contentious political climate. Maria?
BARTIROMO: It sure is contentious. Eric, thank you. Eric Shawn with the latest there.
Now more with House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte.
And, Congressman, let me ask you about those hearings on December 2nd. Will you look to have the president testify?
GOODLATTE: Well, so far that has not been a consideration. I have never seen a president of the United States come to the Congress to testify, but what we are going to do is to have constitutional scholars and legal professors, law professors, who can speak to this issue of what the powers are of the Congress and what the powers are of the president.
And to the president's challenge, Article 1, Section 1, the first sentence of Section 1 of the Constitution says "All legislative authority herein granted shall rest in a Congress of the United States."
Article 2 says that "The president shall take care to faithfully execute the laws."
It doesn't say the Congress can act and, if the Congress fails to act, then the president can act. The president either has the authority he has under the law or he does not. And I and a great many other people say he does not, and that will be the subject of the hearing.
BARTIROMO: What about the economic fallout of the president's action? You know, much of the economic fallout or, I guess, executing this executive order falls to the states, whether it be issuing a driver's license or, you know, paying for health insurance or in-state funding for college. What kind of economic fallout are you expecting?
GOODLATTE: Well, I think there's going to be significant burdens on the states and on the federal government and, Maria, as was noted by Marco Rubio, on those people who, for years, have worked through the legal immigration system to immigrate to the United States.
We have the most generous legal immigration program in the world, and those people will be hurt because, when you try to process up to 5 million people for new benefits, you're going to be delaying and deferring and, in some instances, even never getting around to handling the applicants who are in the system right now, following the rules, abiding by the law.
BARTIROMO: Let me switch gears, Congressman, and ask you about Lois Lerner's e-mails. Thirty thousand e-mails apparently were found. Do we know what the contents of those e-mails are?
GOODLATTE: We don't know yet. I want to commend the inspector general at the Department of the Treasury for finding these e-mails. Obviously, it raises a lot of questions about what has been done by those who have promised to investigate this matter.
But it's also, I think, important for the public to understand that we just know of their existence. They have been found on these emergency backup tapes. They have not yet been decrypted, so we don't know the content yet, and it will be some period of time -- we don't know exactly how long -- before we get them, but we should be continuing this investigation.
The Judiciary Committee and the entire House of Representatives voted last year to call upon the attorney general to appoint an independent counsel, a special prosecutor, to look into this matter. They have chosen not to do that. I think this is going to be more evidence to support the need to get outside from under the people who claim to be investigating this and are not doing it and to have a real, independent special prosecutor handle this matter.
BARTIROMO: Of course, throughout this whole time, as so many people were speculating that they're hiding something, by the continual, you know, saying that the e-mails were lost and the servers were destroyed, what would you hope to seek if, in fact, you were to read in those e-mails that there was a direct conversation with the White House to target conservative groups?
GOODLATTE: Well, I don't want to speculate on who may have been involved, what those e-mails say, but we will follow the evidence wherever it leads, and we will act upon it accordingly. And we will insist upon those people being -- who are involved in infringing upon the free speech rights of American citizens to be held accountable and to make sure that Americans can regain some trust in their tax collections system, which is vitally important and which has been badly damaged by this whole episode, where we see employees of the IRS, including Lois Lerner, leading an effort to penalize people based upon their political views. It's wrong and it's got to stop.
BARTIROMO: Congressman, good to have you on the program. Thanks so much.
GOODLATTE: Thank you, Maria.
BARTIROMO: We'll see you soon. We appreciate your time today.
President Obama using his executive authority yet again, this time broadening the scope of the military mission in Afghanistan. What the new plan means for our brave men and women serving in harm's way. You can follow me on twitter @mariabartiromo @sundayfutures. Let's continue the conversation. Let us know what you'd like to hear about that executive action as we discuss it next on "Sunday Morning Futures." Back in a moment.
BARTIROMO: The U.S. combat role in Afghanistan being extended for at least one more year. Afghanistan's parliament approving President Obama's plan to allow the Pentagon to target Taliban fighters and conduct airstrikes when needed.
Our combat mission in Afghanistan is supposed to wind down this December, but this decision now means our troops are doing more than just training Afghan forces in 2015.
Retired U.S. Army Lieutenant General Daniel Bolger is the author of "Why We Lost: A General's Inside Account of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars."
General, thanks very much for joining us.
LT. GEN. DANIEL BOLGER, (RET.) U.S. ARMY: Yeah, good morning, Maria.
BARTIROMO: Before we go back and take a look at what went wrong, what is your take on the president's new action to expand our role in Afghanistan?
BOLGER: Well, what he's doing is something pretty smart here. It's about half of what we need done, and that is to give our forces the flexibility to defend themselves and to help their Afghan partners. That's a lesson learned from what went wrong earlier in the war and from what went wrong when we pulled our combat troops out of Iraq.
As you know, we've had to send forces back in and sending our air force to help out against ISIS. This time we're getting ahead of that, and that does show we've learned something.
But we've got to do the second half of that, and that is make a long- term commitment. Talking about a one-year commitment, the Taliban are guerrilla fighters. They'll just wait back in the villages for us to leave.
And when you say we've learned lessons, I mean, the fact is is when we pulled out of Iraq, we left some men there and women who were not supported. They didn't have what they need to truly achieve the mission.
BOLGER: Maria, you're exactly right. That was a strategic mistake. I know the military, we've learned from that. My colleagues that are still on active duty clearly are giving good advice to the president. It looks like he's listening, but I'm waiting to hear that second half on Afghanistan.
In Iraq against ISIS, the president has talked about a multi-year struggle, that's very realistic. Now we need to hear the same thing in Afghanistan, and most important, especially in light of what Congressman Goodlatte's comments, we need to go to Congress and to the American people and get their OK for this extended mission. That's the way our Constitution works.
BARTIROMO; You know, I was reading -- and this really is so upsetting. I've mentioned this a number of times because much of the weaponry that ISIS has right now comes from weaponry stolen from U.S.- backed Iraqi military. And of course, that is American-made weaponry, much of it was never used when, in fact, ISIS grabbed it.
BOLGER: Yeah, it's unfortunate. The discipline and leadership of those Iraqi forces was not up to par. We knew they had not been fully trained when we left, eight years is not enough time to undo all the damage done by the Saddam era which lasted for decades.
That army in Iraq was designed to fight alongside us. When you pulled out our combat troops, it's like taking the training wheels off a bike, they fell over.
BARTIROMO: So what do you think of the strategy against ISIS currently?
BOLGER: You know, Maria, it's about as good as it gets. Two things we got right this time, one, the president has talked about a long mission, that's exactly right. And two, it's Iraqis in the lead. We've said the same thing now in Afghanistan, because we're less than 10,000 troops there even with this expanded role that we've announced. And that means the Afghans are going to be in the lead.
That is the right answer to deal with insurgencies. The local people have to take the lead. We can help. Trying to do it with hundreds of thousands of Americans is just not a winner as we saw in Vietnam and now Iraq and Afghanistan.
BARTIROMO: So what failed in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars?
BOLGER: Simply put, we misused the great military, the wonderful young men and women that we have that represent us so well in combat around the world. They're designed for short, decisive operations. They're designed for a Desert Storm. Instead, we backed them into a decades-long Vietnam-type situation. And that's just not a winner, the enemy will wait you out.
BARTIROMO; In terms of what to do now, I mean, you're saying we have to be in it and make sure every knows we're in it for the long term. So how do you get the right number of troops on the ground or the right number of airstrikes knowing that it's an unlimited time that you're there?
BOLGER: Well, that's part of it, Maria, you have to plan for the long term. You have to meter what you put in and limit it. You don't want to put in hundreds of thousands so that you can sustain it over the long haul.
And most important, you've got to get the consent of the American people through their elected representatives. And the right way to do it, the way we've done it in the past like after the Korean War is a defense treaty, that's how we did it in NATO in Europe, that's how we did it in Japan.
So the right thing would be to arrange a treaty with each of these countries, submit it to the Senate for their advice and consent, and have an open and public debate to commit to this long mission, not just do it out of the Oval Office.
BARTIROMO: Right. Well, the expansion has begun. General, good to have you on the program. Thanks so much.
BOLGER: Thank you.
BARTIROMO: We appreciate it. Lieutenant General Daniel Bolger joining us.
Up next, love a parade? Retailers hope you parade right into their stores once the Turkey has gone cold. The CEO of Macy's is with us next on the holiday shopping season. And yes, that legendary parade as we look ahead on Sunday Morning Futures.
BARTIROMO: Welcome back. Next week, the official kickoff to the holiday shopping season, business is focused on what the next couple of weeks look like in terms of a real window into the economy, ahead of the most important retail part of the year for the industry, and that is the holiday shopping season. Joining us right now to talk more about that, as well as the upcoming Thanksgiving Day Parade, is the CEO of Macy's, Terry Lundgren.
Terry, it's so nice to have you on the program.
TERRY LUNDGREN, CEO, PRES., & CHMN., MACY'S: Thanks, Maria. Glad to be here.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for joining us. So let me kick it off with the economy. You reported earnings just a short while ago, and talked about the rest of the year, taking your expectations lower. What are you seeing in the economy right now in terms of consumer spending?
LUNDGREN: Well, we had a little bit of an insight to this as we were forecasting the year back in February when we said, you know, we need to take $100 million of expense out of the business because we just didn't feel like the economy was moving in a fast enough direction.
I mean, by now we all would have hoped that we'd be clipping along at 3.5 to 4 GDP, but we're running at 2.5 to 3, in that range, 2.7, I think, is the last take. And so that's just not enough to drive a big performance of a company like ours. We're a $30 billion retail company.
We need the economy to do well. And we've been doing well relatively speaking. We've picked up a lot of market share. But we knew we had to do something different. SO we had basically flat sales, slightly down, actually, in the third quarter with -- but we had an increase in earnings of 23 percent. I think that's what has helped the stock price.
You know, so people know we're not taking this sitting down, but at the same time, we're taking action when we need to. And we're actually -- the good news is, is we have higher -- much higher expectations for the fourth quarter.
BARTIROMO: The price of gasoline has dropped quite a bit. And a lot of people make the connection of, look, that means more money in my pocket when I'm going to shop for the holidays. How important is the price drop of gas?
LUNDGREN: It is important. I think it's most important for the -- for the lower household income consumer and wherever that person is shopping. Certainly Macy's has that customer in our portfolio for sure. So we expect to benefit from the lower gas prices.
BARTIROMO: And yet we keep talking about an economy that is sort of moving at a very slow pace. What do you think, from your standpoint, it's going to take to actually move the needle on the economy and consumer spending?
LUNDGREN: Yes, well, I think, first of all, the consumer just has to feel confident. They have to feel consistently confident that there's job growth here, that the unemployment rates are going to stay down. I think-- by the way, that is part of the good news that I'm seeing going forward.
We're finally at a point now, it took us a long time to get here, where there's actually more jobs in our economy than there was pre-2008. And that just happened just recently. Even though the rate was low, people had left the work force.
And so but now the pure numbers are actually going against with a higher performance now than we were back in 2007. I think that's very, very positive. But honestly, what we need in this country is investment. You know, that's what creates jobs, real jobs, is investment.
And the way we're going to get investment, I think, is that some day, we're going to all respond to the need for a corporate tax reform. We're at 35 percent today, we're the highest in the world. Too many companies are making choices, going overseas with those investments. And if they want to bring those investments back, we need to have a competitive tax rate here in America.
BARTIROMO: I think it's a great point. We've got a new Congress coming in, in January. The GOP winning the Senate in the recent midterms. Do you think we will, in fact, see tax reform as a major part of that agenda now?
LUNDGREN: I hope so. I mean, you know, the thing is there's so many issues, Maria, that people agree on. That's what, you know, drives some of the business guys crazy and gals because there is agreement, but for political reasons, they don't come to the table to negotiate, you know, such an agreement.
BARTIROMO: Tell us about e-commerce, what you're expecting for the holidays in terms of online.
LUNDGREN: You know, e-commerce has made pricing, product, completely transparent. And so if you want to buy a Michael Kors handbag, you can just go online, you can figure out where you're going to get it. But you're going to find it competitively priced at Macy's. I mean, it's just something that we will stay very, very close to.
And that's a business that's typically done at regular price. And so the time when you will find it not, if it's a clearance item that's last season that's on its way out. But for the most part, it's going to be the same price with us as it's going to be at Neiman Marcus or somewhere else.
And so we're -- but that's -- I think that the customers are shopping differently today. I mean, she, and it's largely she in stores like ours, starts with her phone. I mean, like two-thirds of the time, she starts the decision, where do I want to shop today? What products? Am I looking for a cashmere sweater?
And she will literally do a Google search and say "cashmere," and hopefully Macy's will pop up when she does. And then she will say, what price do I want to pay? And do I want a two-ply to one-ply? And she will do all this right here.
And then she doesn't waste her time. So she's going to the store with the full intent to buy, and she knows what she's getting.
BARTIROMO: Is there a hot-selling item this year that you can think of?
LUNDGREN: The hottest category has been this year and it will continue to through the fourth quarter is athletic. So anything athletic apparel. And it's not regional. It's selling all over the country.
In our case, frankly, you know, we weren't ever doing particularly well with athletic shoes. You know, we wouldn't get the Kobe Bryant shoe right out of the box. It would go to Finish Line or it would go to Foot Locker. It would never come to the department store.
So finally I said, forget this. We're bringing Finish Line into our store. So we put Finish Line inside Macy's, and now we're getting the Kobe Bryant shoe.
BARTIROMO: Let's talk about the upcoming Thanksgiving Day Parade. Everybody looks forward to this parade. And you will have 3.5 million New Yorkers lining the parade route. And the parade is 88 years old this year.
LUNDGREN: That's right.
BARTIROMO: What can we expect?
LUNDGREN: Well, you're going to expect just another exciting event, not only by the 3.5 million watching it on the streets, but over 50 million who will watch it on television.
BARTIROMO: That's the real number.
LUNDGREN: And the best part, Maria, is that it's a three-hour program. And guess what? They replay it the next three hours because nothing can compete with it, you know, in terms of eyeballs on the television.
And so we get six hours of a giant commercial about Macy's, you know, in the background subliminal. I guess it was the first naked advertising, you know, where they were talking about that.
BARTIROMO: That's right.
LUNDGREN: . is listening (ph) to the Macy's.
But honestly, this is our gift, you know, to the community because obviously it's a very expensive ordeal for us. But we are -- you know, we love this day. You know, I mean, Thanksgiving Day is such a special day in the homes of Americans.
We'll have some surprises. Obviously, Santa Claus is the big one. We're going to have KISS in the parade this year.
LUNDGREN: And so we'll some great entertainment, some great floats, and it will be a fun day.
BARTIROMO: Pretty good stuff. Terry, it's great to have you on the program today.
LUNDGREN: Thanks, Maria.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much. Terry Lundgren is the CEO of Macy's.
Still ahead, oil prices are lower, the stock market is higher. How long will the good times continue? We'll talk about Mohamed El-Erian next as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
SHAWN: From "America's News Headquarters," I'm Eric Shawn. Here are some of the other stories that we're following for you right now. A flood warning being issued for much of Buffalo. This comes on the heels of those three days of record-breaking snowfall there. Forecasters say the temperatures are warming up, and that could cause severe flooding as all that snow begins to melt away.
Meanwhile, people there are still trying to clear away all the snow from earlier this week. Some are using heavy equipment, while others are getting help from hundreds of shovel brigade volunteers, the massive lake- effect snowstorm being blamed for at least, so far, a dozen deaths.
And former Washington, D.C. Mayor Marion Barry has died. Barry, who was long a controversial figure, was elected mayor of the nation's capital first back in 1979. He served four terms. And in 1990 he was arrested after being caught on videotape smoking crack cocaine in a hotel room with a woman. But, despite all of those problems, he remained popular and was eventually re-elected as mayor.
Barry was active in the Civil Rights movement and, despite the personal and political issues, was dubbed "mayor for life." Marion Barry was 78 years old.
And I'll be back with Arthel Neville at noon Eastern with more news. And the doctors will be in. Doctors Siegel and Samadi join us, as always, for "Sunday House Call" two hours from now at 12:30 Eastern. For now, I'm Eric Shawn, and back to "Sunday Morning Futures" and Maria.
BARTIROMO: Thank you, Eric. Oil prices are down 30 percent this year. The stock market is near all-time highs. And yet China and Europe continue to slow -- show slow economies. Will the slowdown impact U.S. earnings?
Mohamed El-Erian is with us. He is the chief economic adviser at the global investment firm Allianz and the former CEO of Pimco.
Mohamed, good to see you. Thanks for joining us.
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISER, ALLIANZ: Thank you, Maria. Good morning.
BARTIROMO: So it's a big week next week, even though it is a holiday, a shortened week, this upcoming week. You've got the GDP report out on Tuesday, consumer confidence out. You've got an OPEC meeting happening in Vienna, and then, of course, there's Black Friday, the kickoff to the holiday shopping season.
How would you characterize the U.S. economy and the rest of the world right now?
EL-ERIAN: So we're doing better than the rest of the world. We're growing. We're healing. The problem is that we're facing headwinds from the rest of the world. And what we've seen recently is that things have gotten so bad over there, the central banks are being forced to do even more. And this growing divergence in growth, this growing divergence in monetary policy around the world is causing quite a bit of issues for us.
So we're doing great. We're doing better, I would say, but the problem is the rest of the world is not doing as well as we are.
BARTIROMO: And of course, just this past week, China cut interest rates. Japan is creating more stimulus there, with low rates there as well. And Europe, we're expecting some kind of action from the European Central Bank in December?
EL-ERIAN: We are. And the Central Bank will probably do more there. The result of all this is two things. One is that the dollar is getting stronger. And the other is that markets are getting artificially boosted by Central Bank liquidity and need to be validated by economic fundamentals. And that's a really critical issue going forward, Maria.
BARTIROMO: So in terms of allocating capital, I mean, from an investment standpoint, Mohamed, we all know that Bill Gross famously left Pimco this year. What is the new normal at Pimco right now?
Are they going to start pivoting more toward equities, given the fact that we're seeing all this Central Bank action?
EL-ERIAN: So there's tremendous talent at Pimco, and that talent can be reflected in many different asset classes. In general, we're going into a world, Maria, where asset managers are going to have to offer more than products. They're going to have to offer solutions to their clients. Why? because correlations are changing.
You mentioned oil. Look at commodities. Commodities have been coming down while equities have been going up. That is a very strange correlation historically. And it reflects the interference of central banks with the functioning of markets.
BARTIROMO: So -- so what would be your instinct, then? Do you want to buy equities right now, or are things getting overheated?
EL-ERIAN: I would say, given the very strong rally we've had, take some money off the table here. Have some optionality. There will be bumps down the road. There will be lots of volatility. You want to have dry powder at this point. So take some money off the table. Be ready for greater volatility. And at that point, look to pick up good companies at cheaper prices.
BARTIROMO: After -- after you see a sell-off, what are the implications of this strong dollar, Mohamed? I think we're at a seven-year high, if you look at the dollar versus the Japanese yen versus the euro, very strong currency here.
El-ERIAN: Yeah, we're at a seven-years high because, one, our economy is better than the rest of the world. And secondly, we are tightening monetary policy while the rest of the world is loosening monetary policy. And these two things together mean a stronger dollar.
In theory, this helps the rebalancing of the global economy. In reality, two things. One is our exports will do less well. And secondly, there's a risk that the volatility of the foreign exchange market gets translated to other markets.
So it's not great news, but it's understandable given economic and policy divergence. And divergence is a key word looking at 2015.
BARTIROMO: What's your take on the decline in the price of oil? Is that going to help consumer spending going into the holidays?
EL-ERIAN: Oh, undoubtedly, it's going to help consumer spending. And as you heard from the CEO of Macy's, it will help in particular the lowest segments -- the lowest income segments of the population. And that low oil price reflects two things. One is better supply conditions, but also lower demand because of the slowing global economy. But for the consumer, it's a net positive.
BARTIROMO: Real quick on Russia, Mohamed. I guess they're seeing money flow out of Russia at a rapid clip, $130 billion in capital expected to come out this year alone. what's your take on how it plays out in Russia, which, of course, is expected to be in recession times until the end of the decade?
EL-ERIAN: So it's a mess because the economy's being impacted by sanctions, by lower oil prices, because they're a major energy producer. Because of that, the currency has fallen a lot. Because of that capital, it's fleeing. So Russia is looking at a recession and the risk of inflation and the risk of financial instability.
You know, what President Putin has done is basically traded off his adventure in Ukraine for domestic economic and financial instability. And the question is will he continue that tradeoff, or will he try and get things better and stop his interference in Ukraine? And that's the equation that everybody's looking at.
BARTIROMO: All right. Mohamed, good to have you on the show today. Thanks so much.
EL-ERIAN: Thank you, Maria.
BARTIROMO: We'll see you soon, Mohamed El-Erian, joining us today.
Let's take a look at what's coming up at the top of the hour on "Media Buzz" with Howard Kurtz. Howie, good morning to you.
KURTZ: Good morning, Maria.
Well, we're going to talk about the furor over President Obama's immigration order. We'll talk about Ferguson. But the thing that just started an argument in the makeup room is Bill Cosby, some people saying that the media are unfairly convicting him in the press on the basis of allegations, many of them 30 years old and unproven. On the other hand, it's hard to imagine, at this point, Maria, all these women coming forward, that they're all making it up, and that maybe, because Cosby has been such a lovable figure, that the media have protected him for too long.
BARTIROMO: What a conversation that will be. We will be there. Thank you, Howie. We'll see you at 11:00.
BARTIROMO: Hillary Clinton, meanwhile, jumping into the immigration debate, adding more fuel to the question, "Will she or won't she?" Our panel begins right there, as we look ahead on "Sunday Morning Futures."
BARTIROMO: Welcome back.
Hillary Clinton drawing potential battle lines for 2016, jumping into the debate over immigration and executive action. She Tweeted, look at this, "Thanks to president of the United States, POTUS, for taking action on immigration in the face of inaction."
Let's turn to a permanent bipartisan reform.
Let's bring in our panel on this.
Ed Rollins is former principal White House adviser to President Reagan. He's been a long-time strategist to business and political leaders. And he's a Fox News political analyst.
Judith Miller is adjunct fellow at The Manhattan Institute for Policy Research. She's a Pulitzer Prize winning author and journalist and a Fox News contributor.
And Richard Peterson is senior director at Standard & Poor's Investment Advisory Services.
Good to see everybody.
Thank you so much for joining us.
ED ROLLINS, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.
BARTIROMO: Ed, what did you think about Hillary's Tweet?
ROLLINS: Well, obviously, so he's going to hang close to the president on this one. She's going to try and put his coalition back together again. And obviously, Hispanic voters are going to be very important.
I -- I think at the end of the day, this is going to create chaos for the next two years, just the implementation of this.
How do you basically take the four million, five million people who are going to be eligible or not deported, how do you basically register them, how do you get them Social Security cards, how do you -- how do you get them in the tax system?
And my sense is it's going to create chaos.
BARTIROMO: And, of course, it does fall to the states for the economic fallout here.
ROLLINS: Well, it would be a terrible burden on some states who will have to provide health care, like -- like New York. New York has to provide Medicaid but the federal government will not pay its 50 percent. So a tremendous financial burden. The new governor of Texas already is talking about suing the federal government. And he will obviously -- he's a constitutional lawyer, a real constitutional lawyer.
And so my sense is you'll see lots of suits on this.
BARTIROMO: Well, part of the issue is just pushing this through now, Judy, when we know that the new Congress is beginning in eight weeks, it's sort of like a poke in the eye to the Republicans, I'll do what I want.
JUDITH MILLER, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, that's why he did it, as they now say. And for Obama, I mean, look, of course this is very difficult for Republicans. It really divides the party. It -- it -- it's going to be a test of the new leadership.
Are they going to put together a coherent, pragmatic response to this that registered politically, that doesn't alienate Hispanic voters?
It's very, very tough.
But, by the way, speaking of the states, Maria, one third of all the illegals live in California. And they were fine with this immigration proposal that the president -- the executive action the president has taken.
So I think state by state, we're going to see how it tear -- turns out politically.
BARTIROMO: That's a really good point, because I think that overall, two thirds of the...
MILLER: That's right.
BARTIROMO: -- illegals are from just a handful of states.
BARTIROMO: Like California, like New York and a couple of others.
Is there a jobs and wages impact to all of this, Rich Peterson?
RICHARD PETERSON, SENIOR DIRECTOR, STANDARD & POOR'S INVESTMENT ADVISORY SERVICES: Well, you know, according to the, you know, Council of Economic -- the president's Council of Economic Advisers, it should be very minimal. And in best case scenarios, they're only seeing 300,000 new jobs created by 2024 in this situation.
We have to look at the composition of the -- the 11.4 million illegal aliens that are here. Most of those are in the service sector. Most of those are in the unskilled sector.
Really, the important issue that -- it really sidesteps the issue of H1-B visas, the issue of being -- of bringing in more trained, more skilled immigrants into this nation. Right now, that caps the 85,000. There are some senators, whether Senator Cruz and others, who want to increase that. Others want to bring -- bring it in.
That's the key issue, I think, going forward for the next Congress.
BARTIROMO: And I was actually looking at those people taking jobs that would -- that are...
ROLLINS: Well, here's -- here's the situation...
BARTIROMO: -- in demand here.
ROLLINS: You've now created two classes of illegal immigrants. You have those who aren't going to be deported and they will be able to get work permits. And the six million who aren't going to be legalized, who are going to stay in the wilderness.
So my sense is -- is that -- that's a serious issue. I take a little issue with my friend, Judy.
I don't think the Republican Party is divided on this. I think the Republican Party basically would do an overall immigration bill. If it takes a couple of years, you had the chairman of the Judiciary Committee on here earlier. He wants to make sure the border is secure. They do want to do what they did in '86, where they created an immigration bill, a lot, a lot of people to come in the country and then employers didn't basically do the sanctions that they were supposed to do and you had the same problem all over again.
I'm a Californian. I don't think that California is exactly excited about their illegal immigration problem.
BARTIROMO: Does this basically poison the well in terms of Republicans and the president working together in the next two years?
MILLER: Well, it certainly doesn't help. I mean, you know, he could have picked up the phone, called some Republicans, invited them over to dinner to explain what he was going to do. He did none of that.
MILLER: And the people he invited over, they were all Democrats.
It's going to be more partisan than ever and I think it's going to be very hard for the Republicans to avoid what Obama wants to say, which if you're the problem, you're the reason that nothing is happening. And that's the -- that's the dangerous position they're in right now.
ROLLINS: I would not chase immigra...
ROLLINS: I'm sorry. I would not chase immigration if I was the Republicans at this point in time. I'd say let the president thinks he solved the problems, let's go solve -- let's go do the corporate tax overhaul, let's go do the border, let's go do the things that are on our priority and let him basically...
ROLLINS: -- if he took care of the problem, great, we've got...
PETERSON: And what I would say...
PETERSON: -- also to that, you know, this creates a, you know, a -- a precedent that could be great -- a risk in 2017. You know, if the president used the tenet of prosecutorial discretion, meaning I'm not going to have these individuals deported going forward.
So in a hypothetical world, in 2017, a President Cruz can say, well, you know, taxpayers are being burdened by, say, the alternative minimum tax, I'm going to instruct IRS agents not to prosecute those taxpayers.
All right, stay right here.
We've got a lot to talk about with our panel.
All of those missing e-mails from Lois Lerner now possibly recovered.
What that means for the IRS investigation, as we look ahead on SUNDAY MORNING FUTURES.
BARTIROMO: We're back with our panel, Ed Rollins, Judy Miller, Richard Peterson. And now we know that Treasury has uncovered 30,000 e-mails of Lois Lerner's that, in fact, were not missing. How does this play out, Ed?
ROLLINS: Well, if there's a smoking gun there somewhere -- and obviously no one knows what is is in those at this point in time, then obviously there may be a perjury charge against her; it may be a perjury charge against some of the people who went up and testified.
I think, at this point in time, just 30,000 e- mails doesn't necessarily mean that there's sins there, but I do think there's sins of omission, if nothing else.
MILLER: I only have one reaction, which is when did this woman work? Thirty thousand e-mails back and forth?
I mean, good Lord, there was a whole lot of communicating going on. It's not clear that a whole lot of malfeasance was going on. We won't know until, Ed says, until we know what's in the e- mails, but we will know. We're going to get to the bottom of it, finally, I think.
ROLLINS: And are they -- were they to the White House political director, to -- with Axelrod...
ROLLINS: Who were the e-mails to?
BARTIROMO: Well, that's the key. Who was she talking to? And were there direct orders, "Go target this group and that group"?
ROLLINS: Right, absolutely.
MILLER: Yeah, I mean she did take the fifth. There has to be a reason, that she was worried about something, clearly.
She took the fifth, and she's also, you know, been basically hiding these e-mails.
ROLLINS: If it's a bunch of "jobs well done" coming from Axelrod and Plouffe...
ROLLINS: ... then you know...
PETERSON: Just to add to the cynicism and skepticism towards government, you're not only talking about the IRS controversy, but this week we had the announcement that the ACA, the -- America's Affordable Care Act, the numbers were inflated by dental care double enrollees.
BARTIROMO: Right, so it's actually not as popular as those numbers initially perhaps suggested.
What's on your radar for 2015? Let's talk about markets and the economy. What's most important, as you look ahead?
PETERSON: Well, I think there's two -- it's a two-track world, Maria. I think, you know, on one hand, there's concern about the real median income of Americans is lower today than it has been in nearly 20 years.
BARTIROMO: Right, well, wagers have gone down in the last six years.
PETERSON: Wages have gone down. You know, the fact that, over the past four years, Americans are poorer on average, the fact is, but corporate profits are at an all-time high, according to the Federal Reserve. The latest numbers for the first quarter of 2014, non- taxable corporate profits are over $2.4 trillion. I think -- on 2014 -- you know, we're seeing modest growth. We see the Federal Reserve probably raising rates sometime in the second quarter.
PETERSON: Corporate profits will rise. We're looking positive on the equity markets. But it's headwinds ahead.
BARTIROMO: And then there's, of course, the expectation of who will be the candidates for the 2016 presidential election. Does the tweet from Hillary tell you anything?
ROLLINS: Well, she certainly is going to be a candidate, and there will be about 15 Republicans who will be candidates, so my sense is she won't have an opponent or a serious opponent, but she'll -- the Republicans will start on her early, and I think, to a certain extent, being primary-free sometimes forces everything the Republicans say about you to be highlighted.
BARTIROMO: But the Republicans now have this year and a half, two years, to actually articulate to the American people what they'd like to do. That's going to be important moving into the presidential election.
ROLLINS: It's extremely important, and my sense is Republicans need to work together to put forth an agenda they can sell to the American public. The critical player here is going to be Paul Ryan. Paul Ryan has chosen not to run for president. He's going to be chairman of the Ways and Means Committee and a potentially future speaker. And my sense is he's going to be the intellectual firepower, and that tax overhaul and how he handles that is going to be very, very important.
MILLER: But can Boehner and McConnell, kind of, handle their troops also? Ryan can only do so much. He can propose interesting things, but basically can the leadership hold this very disparate group of people together?
BARTIROMO: By the way, tomorrow, Monday, is the deadline for Iran and six world powers to come to an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. Will they extend it?
MILLER: Well, we're either, I think, going to have a, kind of, nail-biting breakthrough that could lead to a breakout years from now, or we're going to have an extension. I don't think Obama is going to walk away from this. He wants this; he needs it; and the Iranian know that.
ROLLINS: Obama and John Kerry want a deal so bad that I would love to be playing poker against them.
They'll accept a bad deal, I think.
BARTIROMO: All right. Stay here. We've got to take a short break, and then the one thing to watch for in the week ahead. It is actually a busy week, even though it's holiday-shortened. That's next on "Sunday Morning Futures" with our panel.
BARTIROMO: We're back with our panel. What is the one big thing to watch for the upcoming week? Rich Peterson, Judy Miller, Ed Rollins. Rich, what's your one thing?
PETERSON: I'm looking for, like, what happens on Friday for Black Friday, as the holiday season -- spending season kicks off? I think we're hoping to see, maybe, a modest 4 percent, 5 percent increase in retail sales to be a key indicator going forward for the rest of the holiday season.
BARTIROMO: For sure, retail stocks are trading up going into this week, on that anticipation. Judy, one thing?
MILLER: Well, obviously, for me, it's Iran and are we going to have a deal? If we have a deal, will it provide access to scientists and will they 'fess up to their previous cheating, their previous malfeasance, which is why so many of us are skeptical about a deal.
ROLLINS: I'm going to watch how the Republicans react to the president's immigration plan. Are they going to go crazy and basically throw hand grenades back at the White House? Are they going to basically say, "OK, you took your first step; we'll deal with it in the courts and move forward on our agenda"?
BARTIROMO: They're going to do a hearing on December 2nd.
ROLLINS: I understand that, right.
BARTIROMO: We'll see what comes out of that hearing, though, but a lot of economic data this upcoming weekend. Of course it is Thanksgiving. Happy Thanksgiving, you guys.
ROLLINS: Happy Thanksgiving to you.
BARTIROMO: Thank you so much for being here. We appreciate it, to our panel, and thank you so much for watching this morning. That will do it for "Sunday Morning Futures." I'm Maria Bartiromo. I'll be back tomorrow morning on the Fox Business Network. That's for "Opening Bell" at 9 a.m. Eastern on the Fox Business Network. Take a look at where to find FBN on your cable network or on your satellite provider. Click on "Channel Finder" at foxbusiness.com if you still can't find it. From all of us, we're wishing you and family a wonderful Thanksgiving this upcoming Thursday.
Content and Programming Copyright 2014 Fox News Network, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2014 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.