Interviews

Dan Quayle on potential fallout of Scotland vote

Will results trigger more economic uncertainty?

 

This is a rush transcript from "Your World," September 17, 2014. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: This coming into us now, though. If Wall Street is concerned about a sudden shakeup in Western economies, it had a funny way of showing it, the Dow sprinting to a record today, 17156.92.

Now, a lot of that was buoyed by the Federal Reserve and very, very pro-dovish comments about interests rate not going up any time soon. But a lot of was a lot of sanguine kind of reaction to what is going on in Scotland, that it won't happen, that Scotland will not leave her majesty's kingdom.

The former Vice President of these United States Dan Quayle on the fallout if just the opposite occurs.

Mr. Vice President, good to see you.

DAN QUAYLE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT: Good to see you as well.

CAVUTO: You have Scottish blood in you, right?

QUAYLE: I do have a little Scottish blood. I like your -- the way you speak a little Scottish.

CAVUTO: Well, thank you.

QUAYLE: I won't try to do it.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: I watched a lot of "Austin Powers" movies.

(CROSSTALK)

QUAYLE: There -- there you go.

CAVUTO: But what do you think? The president has already indicated he hopes the United Kingdom sticks together. Our official policy is that that should be the case. Most global leaders say the same thing.

What do they fear?

QUAYLE: I think they fear, if Scotland does vote for independence, which I hope they don't -- and I don't think that they will -- they're going to go right up to the abyss and look into it and vote no.

And the reason is because it will start a domino effect. Who is next? Is it Northern Ireland? Is it Wales? Is it Catalonia? There's a rise of national...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Catalonia and Spain, that's -- that's been bubbling for a while.

QUAYLE: Well, yes. We will revisit Quebec again.

So I don't think it's going to happen. There are a couple things. I do not believe that these referendums on something this important should be decided with 51 percent. Let's just say it passes. That means 49 percent -- or say it's 50-50 -- are absolutely opposed to it.

To do something like this important, you should have at least 60 percent. Therefore, the country really wants to go in this direction. And just simple majority, I don't think, really works.

CAVUTO: Well, what is your fear, Vice President? Is that all of a sudden -- we hear talk it's going to lead to a run on the euro, that currency is going to feel it. The Brits could feel it. It might lead to Cameron's resignation in Britain.

I understand and hear a lot of that, but maybe none of that happens.

QUAYLE: Well, forget about the political ramifications, you know, whether Cameron would stay or go. It wouldn't be a good thing for his administration to preside over this.

But you had this earlier run on the banks. What are you going to do about the currency? What are you going to do...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Well, the Scots want to stick with the pound. That's a lot easier said than done, right?

QUAYLE: Well, London's not going to allow that if they leave.

CAVUTO: Yes.

QUAYLE: And the way I understand it, there's actually an 18-month transition period.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: That's right. That's right.

QUAYLE: And my guess, if it does pass -- I don't think it will, but let's -- it might. There's a lot of libertarians up there, and they had the Scottish parliament in 1998, so this is sort of the next step.

Once you get the parliament, then you get to full independence. But that 18-month transition period, my guess is if they would say yes, within that period of time, they will figure out how to say no, because it's not good for the Scottish people...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Well, who would take advantage of the vacuum then? Is there a fear that Russia tries to meddle in Scottish affairs or what?

QUAYLE: It's just -- it's just chaos.

CAVUTO: Yes? QUAYLE: There's chaos with the European Union, because people feel that if, in fact, that the Scottish members of parliament are no longer members of parliament, then the Tories will have a very strong majority, and the majority in the Tory Party would really like to get out of the European...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: It's not like Scotland's going to get communist, though, right?

(CROSSTALK)

QUAYLE: Well, I don't know about that. I'm just talking about what's going to happen with the U.K.

The U.K. will be more inclined to withdraw from the European Union. I don't think that that's a good thing for England. I don't think it's a good thing for the European Union. It just has this domino effect.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: How did we get here?

QUAYLE: And it not good for...

CAVUTO: How did we get here?

QUAYLE: Look, it's emotion.

CAVUTO: Yes.

QUAYLE: If you were up there in Scotland, you would be up there -- this is really emotional.

And what's interesting in those few sound bites you had, the pro- independence people were very emotional, an independent Scotland, we want our freedom, we want our liberty. We're all Bravehearts.

Fine. That's emotion. People on the other side are saying, folks, this is a disaster. I mean, it is a disaster. And I think it's -- I don't know how much of a disaster it would be if they will do it, but it would be a disaster.

So, if you listen, just take a step back. And if you listen to the two sides, one's on reason. One is saying, here's what's going to happen. You have got nobody of real credibility outside of Scotland -- and most of the thinking people, I think, inside of Scotland are opposed to it.

No one from the outside is saying this is a good thing. So you need to listen to collective wisdom in this case, and that collective wisdom says...

CAVUTO: But, you know, I was thinking, when you were coming here and -- and I was I thinking, we have had 40 more countries added to the United Nations since 1980. And a lot of them have come for -- courtesy of the breakup of the old Soviet Union. I understand that.

But it's hardly out of character for the world to witness these -- now, some peacefully, others, certainly what's going on in the Ukraine, not nearly that. But then, you know, when you think of Czechoslovakia breaking away, the Czech Republic, what have you, it went fine.

What makes you fear this?

QUAYLE: But that -- but that's all new. First of all, you're talking about the United Kingdom.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: But they have been shrinking for a long time.

QUAYLE: Well, yes, they have been shrinking for a long time, but not with Scotland. Scotland has always been somewhat of a challenge for them.

CAVUTO: Right.

QUAYLE: As I said, they gave them in parliament in 1988. They have more independence. Cameron and everybody else, the other two parties, are up there promising certain things that are going to be done, if they vote no, which I don't know how much it's going to be.

But it would -- I just do think it would be very severely damaging to the Scottish people. And I think that there's also geopolitical ramifications, because this just starts to snowball, and where is it going to end? The Czech Republic, that was after the fall of the Soviet Union.

CAVUTO: Understood.

QUAYLE: And you have two distinct countries there. You have been to Scotland and you have been to England. They speak the same language. They fought for a long time.

CAVUTO: But the golf courses aren't going to go away. The oil doesn't go away.

I always think -- and you're -- you're the expert here -- that we make dire calls on something that might not be so dire.

QUAYLE: Well, you won't know until you do it.

CAVUTO: True.

QUAYLE: I do -- I do think it would be dire. I do think it would be semi-disastrous. There's all sorts of things, pernicious things that would happen.

And they -- you just had it on your clip there. I mean, just think of the run on the banks. So, I think the Scottish people, they love liberty, they love freedom, they like to be in the spirit of "Braveheart." But when they really think this thing through, I hope they don't do it.

But, you know, it could be -- it could be -- it could be close. I think they have early voting over there. So the early votes could have been cast before -- you know, just on emotion.

CAVUTO: But it takes them a long time to count ballots.

QUAYLE: But -- but if your report is right that there's 16-year-olds and to the 18-year-olds...

CAVUTO: That's right.

QUAYLE: ... are favoring the no-vote, that is a switch, because the pro -- the yes campaign folks are the ones that lowered the voting age, thinking that they would vote yes.

CAVUTO: Interesting. I did not know that.

QUAYLE: Yes.

CAVUTO: Mr. Vice President, always good seeing you, sir.

QUAYLE: Thank you.

CAVUTO: Best to your family, all right, any of the Scottish relatives, too, by the way.

(LAUGHTER)

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