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Where the GOP stands in the fight for the Senate

This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," July 28, 2014. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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O'REILLY: "FACTOR Follow-up" segment tonight, looks like Republicans are gaining political ground with the midterm elections about three months away.

According to Real Clear Politics, the Senate may go Republican in November.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

In Kentucky, Mitch McConnell holds a one-point lead over his Democratic challenger. Georgia, David Perdue holds a two-point lead over Michelle Nunn, the Democrat there.

In Iowa, Republican Joni Ernst holds a one-point lead. Louisiana, Bill Cassidy running against Democrat Mary Landrieu. The incumbent is up by a point.

Remember, I have a big dinner with Carville on that and, believe me, I will run up the tab.

(LAUGHTER)

In Colorado, Democrat Mark Udall leads his Republican challenger, Cory Gardner by eight points. North Carolina, the incumbent Democrat Kay Hagan leads Thom Tillis by 2 1/2 points but close the margin of error.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

Joining us now from Austin, Texas, Republican Karl Rove. It's also Montana and Alaska situation in the Senate, correct.

KARL ROVE, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Well, in South Dakota, West Virginia, and then there are five other races where the Republicans are competitive. Oregon, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire and Virginia.

But, yes, look, this is going to be a wild year. The "New York Times" came out yesterday and moved their rating on the Senate from a 56 percent chance that Republicans took it, to a 60 percent chance.

And "The Washington Post" recently issued its model and said it felt there was an 86 percent chance the Republicans would take control of Senate.

I'm not as optimistic as "The Washington Post" but I think the "New York Times" has it about right.

O'REILLY: Sixty percent chance that the Republicans will gain enough seats to control that body. And that means Harry Reid is out of there.

ROVE: Right.

O'REILLY: You know, he isn't going to wield the power. Because, interestingly enough, most Americans don't know this because why would they. You and I do this for a living.

Harry Reid has blocked most meaningful legislation for ever coming up for a vote. And he strangled -- you know, it's funny, President Obama says, --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

-- "Oh, I can't get anything done because of the stupid Republican House. But when they do get a bill to the Senate, the House --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

-- Reid blocks it.

(LAUGHTER)

So, this is like -- you know.

ROVE: Sure. And not only that, but he also, when he does take up a bill, blocks people being able to propose amendments. The Senate has a great history, a great tradition.

Madison described it as the saucer that cools the passions of the House. And that part of that process is to allow the individual senators to make amendments.

But he uses an obscure rule in order to -- in essence, it's called "filling the tree." It means that he is in charge of deciding what limited number of amendments can be considered.

And so, really, the House is actually functioning as a legislative body. The Senate is ruled like a modern dictatorship by Senator Reid.

O'REILLY: So, the gridlock that's caused and has Americans angry -- because the approval rating from Congress hovering around 11, 12 percent, is pretty much Harry Reid's fault.

One guy is sabotaging the whole process. Or am I overstating it.

ROVE: Well, I think he plays a big role in it. I also lay a lot at the foot of the President of the --

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

-- United States who ought to be setting the tone of bipartisanship and forward movement. And, instead, is a hyperpartisan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'REILLY: But he's working with Reid. You've got to assume Obama is working with Reid and tell him to block all of this, right.

ROVE: Right. Well, and sometimes though, Reid even blocks the President's own initiatives in the State of the Union Address. The President said, "I want trade promotion authority."

And the next day at a news conference, Harry Reid said, "Nobody better ask us to pass it." But, look, I do want to put a note of, look, realism here.

This is a tough election, 99 days left. The Democrats have four advantages. First of all, incumbency.

In order for the Republicans to win the Senate, they're going to have to not only win the three open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia. But they're also going to add the other 11 seats.

They're going to have to knock off three Democrat incumbents who had been elected six years ago. Last time it happened was in 1980.

Money. Democrat Senatorial Committee raising more money than the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

O'REILLY: And that's because of Harry Reid, right, all his fundraisers. Is that right.

ROVE: Right, well, and Harry -- that's right. And then Harry Reid's super pack is really well-funded. And he is muscling up with the union's trial lawyers and rich liberals to make certain that's funded.

Third, the Democrats are focused on their ground game. They're attempting to bring out in the 2014 election people who voted in 2012 and 2008 but didn't vote in 2010.

And, finally, -- you know, look, in every election, you have television ads that sort of stretch the truth. I have never seen the Democrat advertising like this this year.

I mean, they attacked Tom Tillis saying, the education budget -- he cut a half a billion dollars out of the education budget when the education budget, while he's been speaker, went from $7 billion to $8 billion.

They attacked Tom Cotton in Arkansas, "Oh, he worked for insurance companies," even though he never worked for an insurance company.

O'REILLY: But both sides do that.

ROVE: Well, but you know what, I've never seen it to this degree. There have been so many instances in which the Democrat ads have gotten four Pinocchios.

And they don't care. They come back and say the same thing again in a different way.

O'REILLY: And, look, in this Internet age, you say whatever you want. If it sticks, it sticks. And that's it. You take the shot.

All right, Mr. Rove, we appreciate it as always.

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O'Reilly Factor, hosted by Bill O'Reilly, airs on Weekdays at 8PM ET on Fox News Channel.