Russia warns West it may change its stance on Iran

James Carville on the President's handling of the crisis in Ukraine and its unintended consequences


This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," March 20, 2014. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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O'REILLY: "Impact Segment" tonight. Once again we have correctly identified an unintended consequence. On Tuesday in the Talking Points memo I said this:


O'REILLY: And worst of all Iran will most likely ramp up its nuclear weapons activity knowing that Putin will no longer embrace sanctions once the West starts to sanction him.


O'REILLY: Well, yesterday the Russian deputy foreign minister said if the West imposes sanctions on Russia it will not participate in sanctions against Iran. I guess those villains in the Kremlin watch THE FACTOR.

Joining us now from Georgia in the USA to react, James Carville. There is a Georgia over there.

So, do you think President Obama's handling the Putin thing correctly? I mean we have a few more sanctions, picked out a few more guys but what do you think?

JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well right the truth -- the truth of the matter Russians has never cared what we thought. They didn't care what President Eisenhower thought when they crushed the Hungarian revolt. They didn't care what President Johnson thought when they crash the revolt during Czechoslovakia. Didn't care what President Reagan thought when he instilled martial law in Poland. They didn't care what President Bush thought when he invaded Georgia.

I don't think that they are going to be swayed that much by our sanctions. But the truth of the matter is that the Europeans have much more at stake at this thing than we do. And that's why it's good news as Ed Henry reported that the timing of this G7 summit in Netherlands I think is a good thing.

O'REILLY: All right but don't you agree with me that the unintended consequences of President Obama appearing weak throughout the world and he does. All the polls say that all the polls say that the perception and perception isn't reality. I don't want to debate the reality of it I mean, you are a Democrat. You like him. You may see it a different way.


O'REILLY: But the perception is that the United States President can't stand up to Putin. And I think that the Chinese see that, the Iranians see that, the North Koreans see that. Do you -- do you understand what I'm talking about here?

CARVILLE: Well, I understand what you are talking about, but to say have sanctions you say should have done sanctions because the Russians are going to do this. If he doesn't do sanctions somebody is going to say that he is weak. The truth of the matter sanctions are pretty tepid and we'll see what they come up with when he this come in contact with the Europeans --


O'REILLY: Are you in favor of more punish -- are you in favor of more punishment toward Russia? Are you in favor of that?

CARVILLE: What I'm in favor of, I would like to see and hopefully that will come to this is a big, big push to help the Ukrainians, to make them -- one of the things that's driving Putin crazy is how much better that the country is to the West of the Ukraine are doing. I mean there is obviously Germany and Poland.

O'REILLY: All right so you're not in favor of real tough sanctions against Russia? You are not in favor of that.

CARVILLE: Well no if -- if we are going to do it together and in concert with the Europeans and I think I'm for them more or less taking the lead here because they have much more at stake in this than we do.

O'REILLY: Well you know I think if the Italians get riled up that will really make Putin very nervous.

Now, you just heard Henry ask once again Jay Carney, hey, how many people have paid for the -- you know, we really don't know.


O'REILLY: You know, maybe you want to ask the lizard for Geico, I mean he might know, but maybe not. Come on, James. I mean, you are a White House advisor. Shouldn't the White House have these figures at its command?

CARVILLE: Well, first of all, the government -- it's not government insurance. It's private insurance. The private insurers have this.

O'REILLY: But they have to give the data if asked for.


CARVILLE: But they will usually that's 20 percent. That was the Massachusetts experience. And by the way the thing has got a lot of momentum. Let's see it could mean -- maybe at the end of March there are going to be a lot more people signed up.

O'REILLY: Maybe? Maybe?

CARVILLE: Well we won't really know.

O'REILLY: We don't know how many people are buying it though. Look, I think just -- just to help out Ellen DeGeneres. Just for that the White House should be more aggressive to give Ellen some information so that when she interviews the President --

CARVILLE: Well Ellen is a New Orleanian like I am. So we have something in common. But I think we're going to know and I think we're going to be surprised a little bit on the upside as to how many people -- no we'll see how many paid. If it's something under 75 percent, that's that probably not a number that will make him happy.

O'REILLY: All right but if it is that number -- if it is that number and I suspect it will be lower, will you, James Carville, come on this program and say, you know, O'Reilly, you were right from the very beginning about this and I James Carville were wrong.

CARVILLE: Yes and I think you've been right. Look first of I've said that the rollout was a joke. Secondly, you are most the on the upside. You said there is a 25 percent chance this thing could work which is more than most of your colleagues.


O'REILLY: I'm a fair man. I think 25 percent is a fair assessment. But 75 percent is a big number.

CARVILLE: 75 percent chance it will work.

O'REILLY: 25 percent chance it will work.

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