Common Sense

Cavuto: Remember the history of presidential campaigns

What experts say doesn't always happen


Ohio is crucial.

Florida too.

And Wisconsin would be nice, if you're going to lose some place else.

The pivotal electoral math for the R-man.

Not Romney in 2012.

I'm talking Reagan in 1980.

Thirty-two years ago this very week that was the polling wisdom.

Reagan and Carter were tight in the popular vote polls, but not nearly so tight in the swing state polls...

That's where Carter had a big advantage and Reagan aides were frantically cobbling together the states they would have to win.

Funny thing, looking back, how wrong, not only the pollsters were, but the poll-obsessing campaigns were.

If Reagan was worried at the time, he didn't seem to show it.

Bemused by his aides' constantly shuffling state strategies...Reagan reportedly looked at all their color-coded maps and famously blurted out..."they all look winnable to me."

They laughed, but Reagan wasn't kidding.

Turned out, he would have the last laugh. They "were" pretty much all winnable...

Or at least 44 of them were.

That's how many states Reagan would go onto win, in an election this week 32 years ago, he didn't seem electorally to have a chance.

Funny thing, politics. Funny thing, conventional wisdom.

No wonder why Reagan liked to laugh about his age. He was the only guy who remembered...history.

I'm not saying history repeats itself.

I am saying what the experts tell you will happen...almost never does.

Don't take it from me.

Take it from...The Gipper.