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Is ObamaCare a loser for Pres. Obama?

This is a RUSH transcript from "The O'Reilly Factor," June 29, 2012. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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LAURA INGRAHAM: New developments in the Eric Holder contempt of Congress case in a moment. But first let's get right to our "Top Story". How the Supreme Court's vindication of President Obama in the healthcare battle might actually turn into a big loser for him in the long run.

Consider that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has already raised more than $4 million since yesterday's high court decision to uphold Obamacare. And Democrats are now put in the position of defending it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ED RENDELL, FORMER DNC CHAIR: I think the President can and will continue to point out the good things that are in this act because we are not going to be able to run away from it. They're going to make it a campaign issue and I've always said we make a mistake we Democrats when we don't stand and defend. It's going to be an albatross around our neck but stand and defend it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

INGRAHAM: Meanwhile, Republicans are focused on the path to repeal.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CANTOR: We're going to continue to try and look toward the kind of healthcare that people want and that is patient-centered healthcare not healthcare dictated by Washington which is what Obamacare delivers. So we're going to bring up a repeal vote on Wednesday July 11th to make sure that we continue to focus on what it is that the American people want.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

INGRAHAM: So it looks like the law could still face some major challenges.

Joining me now from Washington, Steven Law, he's the CEO of American Cross Roads and with us here Julie Roginsky, she is a Democratic strategist and a Fox News contributor.

Ok well, this story is going to be with us it looks like through the campaign, no doubt about it. And Julie obviously a huge decision yesterday.

JULIE ROGINSKY, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes.

INGRAHAM: But Mitt Romney has raised -- I think now it seems like it's going up every minute but probably $4.6 million since the decision came down.

ROGINSKY: Well, good for Mitt Romney it's the moment in time that he's raising this money. Look, Rick Santorum was absolutely right during the Republican primaries. Mitt Romney is now the guy to be carrying this message. What essentially Justice Roberts said and the courts said is that if you're going to call this a tax it is exactly the same thing that Romney did in Massachusetts. And it was based on Romneycare in Massachusetts. That's exactly what Obama is going to keep saying when Romney attacks him on it.

If this were Santorum on Gingrich or anybody else maybe the Republicans would have a point. But Romney is not the right messenger for this.

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: Well, he's obviously generating a lot of interest and support. And it looks like from reading the blogs and the Tea Party commentary on this people are just jacked up on this.

I mean I don't think they really care that much now about Romneycare because Romney -- Romney said look, you know I stand by that but there were clearly some problems, that was a state experiment --

(CROSSTALK)

ROGINSKY: Well --

INGRAHAM: -- this is a federal cram down and he is just generating an enormous amount of I think support and goodwill.

ROGINSKY: Well, the Tea Party are never going to stay home. These guys are jacked up to get rid of Obama for the past three years. This is not anything new. These are not Independents --

INGRAHAM: Well I read all those articles Julie, wither the Tea Party. The Tea Party was fizzling out.

(CROSSTALK)

ROGINSKY: See I -- I never -- I never thought the Tea Party were fizzling out. I thought they got folded into the Republican Party. They basically did a hostile takeover. Or maybe not -- not so much of hostile takeover.

INGRAHAM: Not hostile.

ROGINSKY: Maybe a friendly takeover --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: A winning takeover. Yes.

ROGINSKY: -- of the Republican Party so these guys were always jacked up to go out and go out after Obama.

INGRAHAM: Steve, your take on this. A lot of money raised but nevertheless a major legal victory for President Obama yesterday. A lot of Republicans are spinning this as well, this is great for Republicans. But I don't think ten minutes before the decision was handed down a lot of people were on -- on cable news saying gosh if the Republicans lose on the individual mandate it's going to be a big win.

STEVEN LAW, PRESIDENT, CONSERVATIVE SUPER PAC: Well, I don't think anybody really expected it. I think a lot of people view this is a really a terrible decision for the country and a big problem that we're going to have to deal with. But I think it is also an opportunity for Republicans to re-litigate this issue in the court of public opinion. And every time that has happened in the past whether it's been the Scott Brown special or the 2010 midterms Obamacare has lost and Democrats have been collateral damage.

INGRAHAM: Well Steve, what about the fact that Julie raised. Look, Mitt Romney himself had similar healthcare program in Massachusetts. Question on whether one of his guys helped advice the Obama administration on Obamacare. How can he really make this case credibly to the American people?

LAW: I think that's the only thing the Democrats can say but I think it's completely wishful thinking. The big problem the Democrats have right now is a huge intensity gap. Because if you were for Obamacare and you thought it was a great idea then the Supreme Court decision is basically case closed.

But if you're somebody who doesn't like Obamacare and that's the vast majority of the American people it's game on and the intensity is sky high to take this issue on and take it all the way to the court of public opinion this November.

INGRAHAM: Julie, a couple of big races, senate races. In North Dakota they want to pick up that -- that seat in North Dakota.

ROGINSKY: Right.

INGRAHAM: Heidi Heitkamp is -- is running. And she's actually come up and criticize the individual mandate, Tim Kaine is not doing any snoopy dance in Virginia.

ROGINSKY: Right.

INGRAHAM: Because the court came down the way it did.

ROGINSKY: Right.

INGRAHAM: So -- aren't a lot of these Democrats in a very difficult situation given the continued unpopularity of Obamacare?

ROGINSKY: Well it depends what you highlight about "Obamacare" quote, unquote. If you highlight --

INGRAHAM: Well, it's the individual mandate.

ROGINSKY: If you highlight -- well, the Republicans want to highlight the individual mandate and the Democrats run on their terms and yes they're not going to do too well. But if they run on their own terms and talk about all of the positive. The fact that pre-existing conditions are no longer allowed. The fact that (inaudible) you can't get your insurance is no longer allowed.

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: How you about the money, how about the taxes on individual families, the middle class; $4.2 billion according to the CBO. That's a lot of money

ROGINSKY: Well, you know again, again -- again, you are only taxed if you A, already don't have healthcare. Or you don't fall --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: There are 21 taxes actually, there's income tax, there's medical devices tax. Tanning tax, I know that's big for you Julie.

ROGINSKY: Tanning tax is not for me.

INGRAHAM: It's a joke.

For John -- for John Boehner maybe not for me. But -- but look, I mean, the bottom line is this, again, if you're calling it a tax. If this were a Commerce Clause issue, it will be federal issue; if you're calling it a tax, Romneycare was also a tax and again it's the exact same thing.

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: I'm not defending Romney care but these Democrats want to run away from this -- this decision.

ROGINSKY: Again, again who is going to be the messenger for the Republican Party, the guy who was the architect?

INGRAHAM: Well, he's raising $4.6 million.

ROGINSKY: He is raising it today before this blowback begins but until people realize --

INGRAHAM: What blowback? The blowback in three years on Obamacare it's unpopular.

(CROSSTALK)

ROGINSKY: But the blowback -- the blowback on the debate when Barack Obama or anybody else decides to talk Mitt Romney on this and say look this was based and predicated on what you've done in Massachusetts --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: Did -- did the President lie when he said I will not tax the middle class? People making under $250,000 are not going to get taxes, is that a lie?

ROGINSKY: No, that was not a lie.

INGRAHAM: Well, did he lie to George Stephanopoulos when said it wasn't a tax.

ROGINSKY: No let me -- excuse me but Justice Roberts said this was a tax. The President --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: Yes I disagree with Justice Roberts but the President came forward and said it was not a tax. Did he lie?

ROGINSKY: Excuse me just because Justice Roberts said it was a tax does not mean it was a tax.

INGRAHAM: So you are now thinking, you're saying it wasn't a tax?

ROGINSKY: I'm saying what exactly what the majority of the liberals in the Supreme Court that this should have been under the Commerce Clause. And the fact that Justice Roberts decided to call it something else is up to Justice Roberts. It doesn't mean that --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: So the -- so the Democrats, Steve, I think are in this position where they have to say either nothing or that it's not a tax, which is interesting because the Supreme Court said it was a tax. Now I think Justice Roberts decision was a disaster. The Commerce Clause opinion part of it not withstanding.

But is that hard for them and can Republicans really ride this to victory without a real reform-minded replacement that everybody can understand because so far we haven't heard a lot of specifics on that?

LAW: Well, on the tax issue in particular I think the President looks like he wasn't dealing straight with the American people. I mean, he looked America in the eye and said it absolutely was not a tax and then his own lawyers were arguing in front of the Supreme Court in order to save Obamacare that it was in fact a tax and now we all know because Supreme Court declared it was is a tax.

And I think it looks like the President wasn't dealing straight with the American people on their health care. And that's a big problem. But that's not the only thing the Democrats have to run from. They have to run from the fact that this law slashes senior's care. It puts a -- a board of independent unelected bureaucrats --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: Yes.

LAW: -- in charge of deciding what care seniors get and don't get.

(CROSSTALK)

LAW: But your question -- I do think that Republicans will at some point have to step up and say not only do we need to move this wreckage from the highway --

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: That's the idea.

LAW: -- after we defeat it but how are we going to fix it in a positive way?

(CROSSTALK)

INGRAHAM: We have to leave it there. Julie, Steven we'll be continuing this, no doubt.

ROGINSKY: Thank you.

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