Who am I to rain on a Pre-Saint Patty's Day parade...?
But there's a storm coming, my friends.
And the government has us marching merrily into what will be a dozy of a downpour.
I'm talking about inflation...it's here. And trust me, it's already marching.
The government won't tell you that. Keeps putting out numbers that pretty much dismiss that.
The latest consumer prices didn't seem to show it, or even hint it.
But trust me; we're in the grips of it.
And I’m not talking gas. Or milk. Or cheese. Or meat. Or cereal. Or any one of the myriad of basic staples whose prices continue to ripple.
More cabbage for that cabbage. More cash for that corned beef.
The government says it doesn't see it.
But we do. And you know something? Some very smart people who bet real money on this stuff see it too.
People who trade government treasury notes and bonds.
Prices for 'em have been tumbling on just these very fears.
And when those treasuries tumble, as they did again today...Continuing a trend that's been going on for many days...here's what happens.
Interest rates rise. This week alone, at the fastest pace we've seen since last July.
And the folks who bet with their cash are growing convinced a lot of things are going to cost more cash...a lot of things...except bonds.
Suddenly "not" so hot. And "not" so sure a bet.
Now I know the white house and fed and the treasury and all the folks desperately trying to keep us calm, will tell us all is well...and enjoy the parade.
That rates are still ridiculously low, which they are.
But not say a word about whether they're all-time lows, which they are not.
The smart money knows inflation creeps up on you when you least expect it.
When you're still marching, but unaware of something else is marching too.
That's where we are now.
Still marching to a government calling the tune and telling us the weather is fine and just enjoy the parade.
Until the music stops.
And the last St. Patty's Day band has walked off.
And lo and behold, that wee little problem is clearer to see...and too expensive to ignore.
That's when you realize, the green you're celebrating...is the green you'll be paying...
Long after the Guinness...